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Everything posted by Slatykamora

  1. Obviously I was going for monolithic, but make a cheap joke that undercuts my credibility.
  2. Guys. When we are trying to figure out what a player will keep doing. We use imperfect tools because guess what? Human beings cannot accurate predict the future. Pointing out that metrics have flaws in a vacuum doesn't mean much. The question is, is what he is currently doing (.295 BA) more predictive then xBA. You can make an argument the confidence level in xBA should be lower with a 1 month sample(I agree). Yet the BA sample is also too small. We have to make judgements on imperfect data. So dismissing xBA outright is also kinda naïve. Should be apart of valuation. You just need to include other variables in your analysis and not use xBA as a monoethnic determination that he is being lucky.
  3. Via Stat-cast Diaz has hit 4 balls that would be a HR in 3 Parks Cordero has hit 4 balls that would be a HR in 2 Parks Pham has hit 3 balls that would be HRs in 5 Parks Vaughn has hit 2 balls that would be a HR in 6 Parks Straw has hit 1 ball that would be a HR in 12 Parks Robles has hit 1 ball that would be a HR in 9 Parks Andrus has hit 1 ball that would be a HR in 3 Parks Fletcher has hit 1 ball that would be a HR in 1 Park Madrigial has hit ZERO balls that would be a HR in any park Looks like you have the 5 girl punch judy book club (Madrigal, Fletcher, Andrus, Robles, Straw) with odds of getting last.
  4. He has increased the Spin Rate(2415 to 2610) and usage (18.1 to 27.8) of his cutter. So he has 3 pitches that can reliably get whiffs and mixes them well.
  5. He's a hitting a ton of hard hit grounders like the Marlins versions of Yelich used to do. Unlike Yelich, he seems to have a real big problem with elevated fastballs. His whiff rate on fastballs last year was also high. The only difference between this and last year is launch angle. A worm killing randy is going to struggle to reach 20 HRs no matter how exit velo looks. Especially with this new ball. Marlins Yelich with about 30 points lower BA is what he's looking like without a major adjustment. Of course that also means he has Brewers Yelich upside with 20-30 points lower BA if he does make said adjustment.
  6. Needs to start having to those balls land for hits/HRs soon, or this time share will stick for awhile. Even if his metrics are superior to Profar.
  7. Trout Stuck out 9 times in 17 PA window already this year. Sound the alarm bell. 27% K rate in 2019 in AA with over 100 PAs is a potential red flag. This really isn't. Especially since we have gone a long time w/o minor league games. Might take time to get in a rhythm. If you watched those PAs and found an alarming reason why he was striking out. That information could be extrapolated into a future worry. You can get some value in a handful of ABs visually, but that absolutely does not come from box score checking.
  8. I was using this to back up the metrics, sometimes the metrics say they are unlucky, but they actually are not. Sometimes players have a lot of close hits but have solid metrics. You are correct in isolation, but this is with context it matters, because sometimes high BB rate guys do fine if they are un-hittable. He was not. We are always using tea leaves of data for RP in judgement. Those 3 games in 15 appearances. If you really want to me to take the time to do a control group (see how many several other RPs have good luck outcomes in 15 appearances). I guess I could.
  9. Re: Reyes https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=50e7bef5-12c1-49b3-85fc-6810a30e9d02 Dickerson lines out towards the warning track with a runner in scoring position. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6444fc44-6a4b-426a-a3cd-b8739fa80101 Didi lines out towards the warning track with the bases loaded. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ce070e26-307b-4911-bfde-ff7505cc8e15 Yadiel Hernandez hits a one to the warning track in a 1 run game So he's dodge a bullet 3 times so far this year.
  10. Any reason why you don't think he can fully regain form? Right now it looks like he is struggling to locate his change up properly. It's dropping 2 more inches then normal and its low/middle part of plate. He usually is painting away with it. I see no reasons to assume he can't rediscover his command. Looks like command issues are the reason for his 4 Seamer and Change playing down right now.
  11. Since the start of 2020. 350 PA 18HRs, 20.3% K, 5.7 BB%, .284 BA .346 wOBA. He's made legit gains in making contact.
  12. Walsh has played in 28 games and no one on the team has played more then 29. He was already an everyday player. So, cool story?
  13. Odor hit tool accoladed are in part granted because flashed great barrel control in the minors. Hiura swing is what got scouts all over him. Odor's average quality on contact is why he ended up being a flop on top of not drawing many walks. There was a lot of weak hits, high hangtime balls between the HRs. Why he has a career .267 BABIP. Hiura is low ball hitter that has gotten eaten alive by elevated fastballs. A young hitter over-confident in his swing. So the answer for him is an adjustment that allows him to handle elevated fastballs or gets better at laying off those pitches. All the comps are just noise. He either makes the adjustment and breaks out big, or he keeps struggling.
  14. We don't know if he will or will not fix problems with his swing, but if the default assumption is no, is very cynical Scouts can be wrong all the time, but he is absolute a priority investment for the brewers for his pedigree and previous signs of hitting the crap out of the ball. They will try harder then most other hitters to fix his problems because his upside is higher then most others in their system.
  15. Ya'll remember earlier in the thread when I said it wasn't a direct comparison? Shouldn't need to be explained why SS get longer leashes in the majors over 1B.
  16. 7Ks in 32 PAs vs RHH isn't that bad. Already touched on why walks will be scarce and why he may look ugly vs LHP. Should also note he not done anything off breaking balls so far, but he actively looking for FBs and his swing rate vs breaker is lower. So he's not trying either.
  17. He has gotten on base for 9 straight games now (.250 BA, 2 BBs 9Ks in 34 PAs) after starting out .177 BA, 2 BBs, 21 Ks. in 65 PAs Just be aware he is improving by the day. Today he has single, lineout and flyout after a 2 hit day yesterday. The power will come soon IMO.
  18. Might be dealing with a timing issue along with some unlucky outs. Drastic changes in pull rate is either timing (in this case being late to the ball) or injury and the hard hits indicate he should be healthy. The 3 walks were a good sign at least.
  19. There are a bunch of right handed starting pitches that feature only FB/SL vs RHB. 3rd Pitch is for LHH ONLY. Conventional wisdom is if you have a strong pitch vs one side of the platoon to lean on it hard. If you don't, you try to mix as many pitches as possible to be less predictable and work on keep them off balance. Sliders traditionally pose a platoon problem. Not only because of the how the pitch moves, but release point deception with their FB might not play off as well when viewed from the opposite handed batter. So the LHH would sit dead red. Even if the Slider was legit un-hittable. Some Sliders do break the mold and compliment their FB well against all handed batters like Patrick Corbin, Tyson Ross and Jack Flaherty. So if the question is, does Yona have a mold breaking FB/SL combo? I'm in the camp of yes, he does.
  20. In fairness, when you hit FBs as often as Tucker has and you don't pull a lot of them. You absoutly will have a putrid BABIP. The correlation between BABIP and hard hits has always been very passive because hangtime/angle is more important. Since it's known that hitters who have above average pulled FB rate tend to overachieve their metrics. I'm making an assumption that the opposite is true too. I don't find any of this predictive of what his next 5 months will be. He usually has very healthy pulled FB rates, no reason to assume different yet. Just that he hasn't been as unlucky as most people assume. He'll be fine and posses massive 5x5 upside.
  21. Because they liked his talent that much. I do think it was irresponsible of them to let him pitch thru it. Susler has 3 pitches and he's throwing all 3 of them for strikes so far. Where in his first 2 years he struggled to get his secondary options in the zone so hitters didn't have to respect them as much. In 2020 when he was hurt he was not elevating the FB as much either. FB/CH both get a healthy of amount of whiffs that should prevent any sort of platoon problems. Slider is not that good, it's only used as a show me pitch vs RHH to keep them from sitting dead red.
  22. Sulser did pitch thru injury last year. So yes, you should throw his 2020 out the window. Valdez is not near losing his job and Scott is also ahead of him. He is a more of Mid-RP thread call then in here right now. Stlll worth keeping an eye on. He's really good, dunno about Yates good.
  23. ???? Story's first 670 PAs: .253/.328/.503 .352 wOBA 32.5 K 9.2 BB 38 HRs 10 SB Hiura's career 670 PAs: .253/.330/.476 .340 wOBA 32.8 K 7.0 BB 33 HRs 13 SB. Story was a whiff machine the first 1000 PAs of his career and half of this forum thought he smoke n mirrors in that time frame. I don't consider it a direct talent comparison. Just that he's a talented young hitter who is only probably few changes from turning the corner and really breaking out. Does it happen this year? Heck if I know.
  24. In fairness, people were trashing Trevor Story at this point his career too.
  25. Ya'll are under-estimating his HR/SB upside. Nico absolutely has a reserve of raw power. Will depend on how often he can pull fly balls or he chooses a more all fields approach. Nico does not have a ton of pro reps. They tweaked with his swing in 2018. Then he fractured his wrist thanks to HBP in late April of 2019. and 2019 was the year he played the most games.
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