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Everything posted by bogfella

  1. I like Travis Wood quite a bit and think he will be a solid starter as he settles in. He's not going to be a #1 or even a #2 imho but he fits nicely as a #3 or #4 and that makes him fantasy relevant. Sam LeCure is not someone I would expect to have long term success as a MLB starter. He has bounced around the minors and has just so-so stuff with a fastball that tops out around 90 and mediocre secondary pitches. I saw him awhile back and he didn't show anything too interesting and I would be surprised if its gotten significantly better. He is the kind of guy the league will catch up with soone
  2. Not a big Sanchez fan, especially with his injury history. Problem is in very deep leagues there may not be much out there unless you are looking to take a flier on someone to stash on your bench. I am thinking Sanchez might be hurting because he has not looked good at all - and even though I am not a fan, he hasn't been this rough.
  3. I'm guessing not for awhile. Its possible but I think they would like to play this hand for a bit and see if they can work through Porcello's struggles. I watched him the other day and he showed some good but inconsistent stuff.
  4. Pineda - I like him quite a bit. I think anticipating results like those from Latos and Hudson might be a bit optimistic, but all in all I think he will provide decent numbers for a kid boosted by playing in Seattle. He *might* be the Latos or Hudson of 2011 but I think you are setting yourself up for a disappointment if you expect it. Jurrjens - I am a Jurrjens believer. I really liked him in '09 and talked him up a lot. Last year was a combination of things but I am still a believer until he shows me what he had in 2009 is gone. He's on a couple of my teams and I am looking forward to this
  5. I like McClellan. He's not Adam Wainwright but he will contribute to the Cardinals this year. For fantasy purposes he's a solid guy who should give you a respectable WHIP and ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts. He fits well at the back of a fantasy rotation in most leagues and should be better than a lot of MLB 5th starters.
  6. He's your basic back of the fantasy rotation guy. He would be alright in a very deep league where you could pick and choose his starts and probably has value in an AL only but he doesn't have the upside to be a huge help long term.
  7. I was scouting a couple of other games during his last start so I only got to see a bit of his outing. I just can't get excited about his stuff. he has certainly enjoyed success so far this season but I am still skeptical regarding his long term value. I'm not ready to label him a sell high guy yet but I am not convinced he is a fantasy boon either.
  8. Chatwood would be a cameo at this point in his development. He doesn't have the command to take a regular turn at the MLB level yet and I am iffy on whether he will in the future. He has good stuff but things will need to click if he's going to make it as a starter. I am guessing a bullpen role might be a possibility. As for Luebke, his value will be completely dependent on his opportunity. He *should* be the Padres 5th starter right now but it appears they want to give Mosely more time to see what he can do and they also have LeBlanc waiting to have a go. Mosely baffles me - he always has ha
  9. Sorry, didn't catch the earlier request ... I certainly like Britton although he is enjoying the halo effect of his initial experience in the majors. He's a groundball pitcher which means he'll have days when they find holes and he probably won't be a big strikeout pitcher. That equates to a decent fantasy starter, but his first two starts will have him hyped beyond reasonable expectations. My guess is they will ride him while he's going good but when they get healthy he could go back down for a bit more seasoning. Esmil Rogers is a fair candidate to become a useful starter. He's a fairly r
  10. Pretty much what we saw tonight ... I liked the 82 mph breaking ball and then the 97 mph smoke up.
  11. Should have been the closer long ago (if Rodney was the alternative). Ok, ok it was judicious to give him a little time to settle in and get his mechanics smoothed out but I love the guy. He was on my "list" long, long, long before they decided to move him to relief and I was even more excited about him when they did. I have no doubt there will be some bumps in the road but he has all the right ingredients to be a very successful closer long term.
  12. He's really all about the heat as he gets into the high 90s although having to go the innings of a starter could drop that a bit. He has a decent but inconsistent slider and he wasn't real comfortable changing speeds yet which is why he would probably be better in a relief role right now. The M's might be soft enough to take a risk but I would be kinda hesitant to use him against a heavy hitting team - at least until I've seen him to see how his secondary pitches have come along.
  13. I'm no expert on pitching mechanics, in fact I am far from it, but I do think the arm angle will at least appear to be a bit different with the two pitches because of the movement of the arm between the top of the arc and the release. When you snap downward in putting rotation on a slider or curve it has to change the arm angle to some extent. We need one our mechanics experts to weigh in here ... Bog is getting in over his head lol EDIT: This post refers to the earlier discussion regarding cutters and sliders
  14. Its more the grip and arm action rather than arm slot. A cutter is thrown exactly like a fastball with the grip similar to a 4 seamer but off center. The arm slot should be the same as a fastball. A slider is thrown with more of a curve arm slot which is probably very close to the same as the fastball unless the pitcher is one of those that drops down and changes his arm slot to disguise his pitches. A slider, unlike a fastball or cutter, has a sharp downward break of the wrist like a curve and that is where the difference comes.
  15. I thought of what might be a better way to define a cutter vs. a slider: Think of the cutter as a soft fastball with a little break and a slider as a hard curve with a little break. That's why you sometimes see the people who coach young players encouraging the use of a cutter rather than a slider. Because the cutter is really a fastball with a slightly different grip, it doesn't put the stress on the elbow like a slider which is thrown like a curve but harder (which means very high stress).
  16. I am not quite sold on Narveson yet, but I need to see a bit more of him before passing judgment. As for a cutter and a slider, they can be pretty hard to separate. They look similar (and the more similar they are, probably the better since the hitter will have the same problem we do in telling the difference). A cutter could probably be defined as something between a 4 seam fastball and a slider. It is thrown with a similar grip to the 4 seamer and generally has more velocity than a slider. The slider comes in slightly slower and tends to break more and earlier. Similarly, I kind of look at
  17. In a word, yes, I do like him for this year. His secondary stuff has come along to the point I think he will be able to handle left-handed hitters and that was my main concern. He is still learning and will have bumps in the road but he is a good one.
  18. In general I too think Texas does a reasonably good job with their pitchers. As for Lewis, I really wasn't all that excited about him last year but I watched him pitch several times and each time I liked him better. The guy has definitely learned his trade. That said, I would actually put him slightly ahead of CJ Wilson on the Rangers staff and that should make him a decent value pick in most drafts. Arlington will always be a dangerous place to pitch, but I think he's up to it.
  19. Sorry, I missed the AL only note - yes in an AL only he would have a bit more value. Also, I missed the question about Oswalt and Hughes: In short, Oswalt is still solid and will benefit from pitching with that rotation again (there is something to be said for synergy in pro baseball and those guys will challenge each other to be at the top of their games every start) while I would cast my vote for 1st halfish on Hughes ... he will actually be somewhere between 1st half and 2nd half this year, but I see him taking a step forward and settling in as a reliable (don't read ace or elite here) fa
  20. Its not so much that I am totally negative on Niemann, I just think he tends to be over valued in many leagues. He shows some good things when he is on - a decent fastball and a decent curve - but I don't feel like he changes speeds as well as he should and he sometimes lacks command of the strike zone and leaves pitches up. He's looks imposing, but he is not overpowering enough to get by with either at the MLB level. Add in on and off nagging injuries and he just doesn't excite me enough to spend more than a late pick. If you can get him cheap, you could do worse as a back of your rotation gu
  21. I think he belongs in the same general area as Greinke and Gallardo. Greinke is certainly a bounce back candidate off a sloppy season and Gallardo still has plenty of upside so they both deserve some optimistic looks. Haren might be considered a small notch above them, particularly early on, as he does sometimes fade some in the 2nd half.
  22. Neither of these guys are must haves imho. Basically, they are the same guy - average stuff with limited upside. If I had to choose one, it would be Luebke. He works the plate pretty well, especially in and out, and when a guy doesn't have exceptional stuff I want them to be able to pitch to spots consistently. The fact that he does show command of the strike zone plays particularly well in San Diego. I don't think either will be much more than a back of the rotation fantasy starter, but Luebke could be a bit useful if he continues to mature. If there isn't a better ceiling available, he cou
  23. To be honest, I am pretty blah on Pelfrey. He has a better arm than his numbers would suggest, but he never has impressed me with his mound presence, and he doesn't really fool many hitters. He has a decent sinking fastball but none of his other pitches are what I would consider + offerings. With good, not great stuff, if you don't have at least 3 quality pitches you can throw at any time, getting through a lineup 3 or more times is always going to be problematic - he has 1 and occasionally 2.
  24. I'll throw out a little on both Davis and Maya ... Florida, I think you hit it on the head with Davis. He is in transition to the MLB level and while he does not have the ceiling of a Price, I think he could settle in as solid middle of the rotation SP. He might be a pretty decent value pick this year as so many are focused on Price and/or super-hype Hellickson - both of whom I expect to be overpriced in most leagues. As for Maya, I saw some film when he was still in Cuba, watched him when he was so obviously rust burdened late last year with the Nats, then heard "he looked just like he did
  25. I think you are right, he is probably a better option than Chris Narveson down the road. However, the Brewers appear to feel they are set with Narveson as their #5 to open the season. It just comes down to opportunity. By mid season, if Rogers progresses and Narveson is shaky you could see him get a shot. Obviously, any injuries could also open the door.
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