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Posts posted by BigPapi44

  1. 6 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

    Do not doubt his quality on contact will be impressive. Some of those metrics tell you more about power output(LA, Exit Velo). Some are not stable(Sweet spot). Or they represent such a low% of total outcomes(Barrels/PA). 


    Lowe is netting 10.9 Outcomes (per 100) with a .822 BA vs .298 BA. Gaining 5.7116 Hits per 100 in a vaccum (.057 BA raise)

    Lowe is netting 34.6 Outcomes (per 100) with a .000 BA vs .298 BA. Losing 10.318 Hits per 100 in a vaccum. (103 BA drop)

    .46 Net BA loss vs .298= .252 BA. That would be his mean BA projection only calculating Barrels PA and K%. (More factor influence BA obviously)


    The main question mark with the numbers is repeating it for a full year.  You cannot assume he will see the same pitch mix. My criticism from last year was I did not think his plate coverage/poor contact rate vs his O-swing/Swing rate is was not sustainable in both BA and extreme power output.

    Caveat for that is he could very well tighten his K zone and remedy some of this. He has a very good swing, the talent is there. So if the price is right, worth the gamble for the upside of a youth improving.


    Another important factor is where they intend to bat him in the lineup, far more valuable to be in the top 5 in the order versus bottom 3 or something in that range, imo.

  2. 22 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

    How does the arrival of Delino DeShields Jr. impact Oscar Mercado’s playing time in center field for the Cleveland Indians?



    Even if Mercado hadn't received this vote of confidence, I see DeShields as no threat whatsoever to his PT.  Roster Resource has Greg Allen listed in RF, and if anything he'd be the one squeezed into a short side platoon role opposite DeShields.  A lot would have to break wrong for Mercado for him to lose time to both of those guys.

    Oscar looks like a great buy to me at his current ~120ish ADP.  He doesn't have a headline-grabbing SB season yet, but he went 15/15 in about 3/4 of a season with a solid AVG.  I'll be happy to pull the trigger anywhere toward the 90-110 range, or maybe earlier if I'm lagging on SB.

    Thanks Tony.  As a Mercado owner, this has me feeling much better.  I suspect that Mercado may play both CF and RF and that Reyes will DH almost exclusively.

  3. 1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

    Yahoo.  It is under a new management and software team the last two years and has improved.  Has deep prospect pool, sabermetrics research tools added last year and continues to be totally free.  Also, along with ESPN, has the highest number of users which means many many private leagues to select from along with their standard casuals and pro money leagues. With criticism of ESPN rising due to what many of their users here called a bad "update" that didn't work right or deleted good features from the past, then yeah I'd say Yahoo.

    +1 for Yahoo. Alternatively, if in a very deep league with many prospects, I would recommend Fantrax.

  4. On 12/11/2019 at 3:47 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

    No doubt he is a fine OF, but he isn't getting any younger and he tends to get nicked up more than the average player....

    Having been a Pham owner the past few years, I agree with this.  I've found the same with Starling Marte.  That said, if you can get 135-145 games out of Pham his stats more then make up for it.  It's more a concern in 'weekly' lineups then daily where you can sub him out, imo.  That SD lineup is looking pretty good right now, with a full season of Tatis Jr., Machado more comfortable in the NL and Hosmer's OBP, I think Pham can put up just as good numbers (and possibly even better counting stats).

    • Like 1
  5. 15 hours ago, B&F said:

    He went from a band box to a park that is difficult to hit home runs in.  Not to mention the number of ace like pitchers in the division.

    He is going to be overvalued.

    Meh.  Sure more homers, but a better average on the road by quite a margin, so not sure the home park was 'that' favourable overall.  Also, no homers in Yankee Stadium or Fenway. The Marlins just moved in their fences, which is not insignificant.  Also, Cole just got added to the AL East, but I agree there's still probably more talented pitching in the NL East.  Overall, maybe a slight downgrade but I see it more or less as a wash.

  6. 51 minutes ago, parrothead said:

    I would agree, give me Rogers Center, Yankee, Fenway and Camden vs ATT/oracle, Dodger, Chase and Coors.   Although whats kind of interesting is that he has more career HR as a guest at Petco (3) than he does at Yankee and Fenway combined (0)

    Part of the argument in favour of the move is that, outside of LA, that division's pitching is not very good or at least is comparable.  The Padres, arguably, have the best staff after the Dodgers, so looking at the Rockies, Giants (sans Bumgarner) and DBacks is not overly intimidating. 

  7. 3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

    I was a big fan of Franmil and he didn't got a bit unlucky with average. The problem is he is a low average power hitter at a time when there's so many of those type of players. If I can get him after many of the similar type players I will give another shot but there are probably 10+ guys who can produce similar numbers.

    I tend to agree.  Now, if he can pull that average up to .260 with 40+ hrs hitting 4-5th in that lineup (hopefully with Lindor in it) then he becomes a real bargain in the likely rounds he'll be going.

  8. 5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


    I think it's a positive. I don't think the stadium change will be that big of a deal because it's not like Tropicana is a bastion of HRs. In fact, I think Tropicana and Petco are pretty close in terms of HRs, right? And now you're putting Pham in a lineup that will surround him with better player, offering more opportunities for R/RBI. I honestly see the opportunity for Pham be a more valuable fantasy OF in SD than he was in 2019. Good BA, ~20 SBs, chance for more than 145 R-RBI, and I still think he hits about 20 HRs. 

    Rays moved him around a bit in the lineup, all things being equal with the Pads present lineup as being the one that opens the 2020 season, where do you think he will bat in the order?

  9. On 12/3/2019 at 11:53 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

    What the two posters -- WahooManiac and OaksterDan -- above said.  It is either 5 starts OR 10 appearances.  Rizzo had 10 "appearances" but not 5 "starts" so he met one of the two possible ways to re-qualify which was all he needed.  Trust me.  I've been on Yahoo for over 10 years.  Five starts in a season carries over even if there are no 10 "appearances."  I have had many many dynasty players meet the 5 "starts" but not the 10 "appearances" requirement over the years there at some position and they remained eligible the following season.  Yahoo is pretty clear about that.  "Starts" have always been 5 and "appearances" have always been 10 and meeting just one of those requirements carries that position over to the next season.  Danny Santana WILL have SS eligibility again this coming season on Yahoo.  You can bank on it.  So no worries, you  can celebrate.

    Agree with the other.  Have been in Yahoo for over 15 years, and for sure, as stated these are the position eligibility requirements.  One caveat, if they start 2 games at SS and 3 games at 2B, for instance, then they would qualify for MI and NOT either of the positions if your league has the MI/CI designations.

  10. 1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

    The Orioles scored 114 more runs than the Marlins last year (729 to 615). The Marlins should close that gap some this year with their new acquisitions, but it's still a bad team, a bad park and ultimately a worse situation for Villar.


    Aren't the Orioles also in full tank mode though?  I'm not sure until seeing what each lineup looks like heading into the season we will be in any position to comment on 2020 runs.  Arguably, Villar was one of the reasons they scored that many (more) runs!

  11. 3 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

    More chances to face Scherzer, Corbin, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Nola, Soroka, etc. The AL East is the best division to hit in and the NL East might be the worst.

    Good point.  However, IF Cole and/or Stras end up in the AL East, then while still not as strong as the NL East they do have some pretty good arms there too (Snell, Morton, Severino, Sale).

  12. I guess Isan Diaz is now on the outside looking in for a roster spot.

    My belief is that Villar will still be plenty valuable.  In that diamond, he can surely take advantage of his speed.  Not sure if Mattingly is a guy that usually gives his guys the green light.  Any Marlins fans know?  Given the O's lineup was rather terrible, I can't imagine he won't put up similar runs but the RBIs and HRs will decline, imo. but his other stats should remain relatively the same.  

  13. On 11/20/2019 at 12:17 PM, Slatykamora said:

    You are surprised 1st year players with 5 cat upside were drafted before a first year 4 cat upside player? Guy that picked Abrams probably fully believes he will grow into his 6'2 frame.

    Not saying I agree, but it's defensible.

    I'm saying that a lot of (fantasy) prospect sites have Vaughan ahead of pretty much all of them regardless 5 cat v. 4 cat.  For sure, it would seem that there are some that think otherwise, that's all. haha.

  14. 1 hour ago, Gobux1970 said:

    Here’s another first year player draft from prospect 1500 if anyone is interested.



    Since this was a draft of prospect mavens, gives a good sense of how guys are viewed, imo.  A bit surprised to see Vaughan fall to #26, which is after CJ Abrams (obviously someone is a big believer) and also Bobby Witt.

    • Like 1
  15. 5 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

    Will he be someone to target high in first year player drafts for dynasty this spring? I’m not seeing him on CBS yet. So I’m wondering if he’s even going to be an option. 

    Yes, I suspect he will go very high in most drafts.

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