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Backdoor Slider

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Posts posted by Backdoor Slider

  1. 51 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

    I see what you're saying. I may have to rethink my position on him. I still love what he does for my team in my OBP league as there aren't many guys that can put up those numbers while getting on base at a .370 clip. However, you've got a point that those missing numbers from the other guys can be sacrificed given the players being drafted in the range that Cutch is being drafted. 

     

    This is why I love this forum. Some nice educated debate that legitimately helps you make decisions. 

    Yeah I'm talking 5 x 5. OBP definitely a different animal. 

  2. @BostonCajun

    I don't know that any of them will put up Same numbers. But the drop isn't substantial IMO. 

     

    Looking at ADP on Fantasy Pros, McCutchen is at 60. Within the next 10 picks are Carrasco, deGrom, Segura, Schwarber. 

    Herrera is 130. Harvey, Keuchel, Gausman, within 10 picks. 

    Ozuna is 164. Happ, McCullers, Szdjmardia within 10.

     

    I could keep going. Point is if Ozuna can get me .270/75/25/90/3 I'll take the slight drop off and take an Ace like deGrom v. McCutch + Happ.

     

    I know we can all find sleepers we like later, I just feel like McCutchen is just so replaceable in the OF that I couldn't justify taking him close to his ADP.

  3. 2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

    While I don't think he'll ever get back to 1st round value I do believe he can give you what you pay for as a 3rd rounder especially in OBP leagues. The reason why I don't think he'll ever get back to his days of being a 1st rounder is because I just don't see the steals coming back to what he was doing before. I can see 10 SB but envisioning him reaching 20 or even high teens is tough for me. The 3rd round value comes from the consistency and his ability to get on base at close to a 40% rate. He is close to a lock for 20+ HR with 90 runs and 90 RBIs with a .375 OBP if he stays healthy. Sign me up especially if he falls anywhere past the 3rd/4th round. His current ADP on FantasyPros is 58 but I don't expect him to last that long in competitive leagues. 

     

    I disagree, and actually think "competitive" leagues are the ones pushing his ADP down, while others are falling in love with name recognition. 

    I mentioned it in another thread. McCutchen used to give you .315 AVG. And 25-30 HRs. And 20+ SBs. Now it's very likely he'll reach none of those. I agree I think his average bounces back up. Let's suppose he goes 

    .285/90/23/90/9

     

    That's solid. He won't kill you. But how different is that than OFs you can get MUCH later? I'd much rather use my 4-5 round pick on an ace or any other position player and get similar value in a OHerrera, MOzuna, CDickerson, DPeralta type of OF, sometimes MUCH later in the draft. I just don't see the value in McCutchen at his price, unless he's closer to .300/25/15

  4. 2 hours ago, Trader Mac said:

    What is Capps' status for 2017?  I was just on Roster Resource and it says he is out for the whole year.  Say it ain't so!

    This taken right from the website you're posting on:

     

    Padres manager Andy Green is aiming for Carter Capps (elbow) to make his Cactus League debut around mid-March.
    Capps, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, is expected to pitch in simulated games and minor league games before appearing in Cactus League action. The way the Padres have mapped things out is giving him a chance to be ready for the start of the season. He could quickly find himself in the mix for the closer role if he proves his health and effectiveness. Mar 1 - 12:10 PM
  5. 1 hour ago, Stats said:

    This surprises me a bit.  I understand drafting him over Rizzo to an extent, but Machado is an absolute beast with the multi-position eligibility to boot. 

    So where do you place Villar in your draft heirarchy? 

    Machado hit .294 last year. 200 RBI/runs, 37 HRs. Finished 45th on ESPN Player Rater. 

    In just 73 games last season, thus only able to compile 93 RBI/runs, Turner finished 59th on Player Rater. 

    This is what taking a zero in a category (SBs) will do in standard 5 x 5. So even if Turner's average drops to .300 in a full season and he doesn't add ANY HRs or SBs, just counting stats, it's very likely he outearns Machado in 2017 in standard 5 x 5. Machado is clearly the safer play, but if you think Turner can even go .300/95/15/80/40 he's the higher ceiling player for sure. 

     

  6. 7 minutes ago, chud12 said:

     

    Last year I took him first overall and for this season yea I will not touch him.  The experience was just horrible last year so again yea I won't be drafting him this season. 

     

    I mean, of course it's your prerogative. It's just not very smart to write off one of the elite hitters in the game who is just 24. Good luck trying to choose all the players you think are safe and couldn't possible "burn" you.

  7. 20 minutes ago, chud12 said:

    Will not be drafting this bum again. Owned him last year and he was an absolute headache and was just awful most of the year. I'll let someone else hope he reemerges as the MVP player he was two years ago. This guy is ddd list for me.  

    So if I've got this right, you've decided to put a 24 year-old on your do not draft list, a guy who walks almost as much as he Ks, because his 24 HR/21 SB season wasn't as great as his MVP season, at 23 years old. 

    Raise your right hand. Now slap yourself with it. Because this is really, really bad "logic." 

  8. 4 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

    Based on? Story will probably win HR/RBI between the two, Correa will probably win AVG/SB. Runs will likely be pretty close.

    I'd take Correa over Story, but to say "they aren't even close" makes no sense

    And I think people forget SBs likely to be close. Story had 8 last year and most projections seems to be 12-15.

  9. 7 minutes ago, cad300 said:

    Am I missing something with all these injuries? Weren't most of them via a HBP and kinda fluky?

     

    We aren't talking chronic soft tissue or leg issues, right?

    Well yeah, but a lot of people get HBP. 7 seasons, and just 2 over 125 games. Maybe the ability to get out of the way is a skill set he lacks. Either way, it's enough of a track record that I wouldn't bet the over on 125 games. 

  10. 12 minutes ago, Stats said:

    Fantasy value capped by his power upside and lack of speed? 

    Maybe it's his position and an underlying mancrush that has me so "over the moon" about him. 
    The .320 average you mentioned I don't think is out of the realm of possibility with that hit tool, though.

     

     

     

    Yes. I mentioned in the Arenado thread, and it's a similar discussion here. Arenado had a monster season last year. .297/107/41/147/2 

    He finished 8th among hitters in 5 x 5 according to ESPN Player Rater. Plus batting average and plus plus power and counting stats, but the lack of SBs cap his value. 

    Now, I LOVE Arenado. And I LOVE Seager.  And agree that Seager could hit .320. But 4 category studs will rarely, if ever, jump into the top 5.

  11. 1 hour ago, Stats said:

    That question probably belongs in another forum. I guess what I want to know is do we have enough confidence in that swing and long term position eligibility to draft him as a top keeper yet? Will positional considerations even matter that much? The next Kris Bryant? 

    If you're talking back half of the 1st round, yes. Kid can rake. But when we're talking fantasy royalty & top 5 picks, he better hit .320, or 40+ HRs, and/or chip in 10+ steals. 

    He's an elite bat in real life, but his fantasy value will likely always be capped, though he has a ridiculously high floor already, which is attractive. 

  12. 30 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

    Guy throws 100mph.  With MLB's obsession to make silly rules to speed up the game, you'd think they'd leave Capps alone 

    I'm not sure I see the connection between the MLB obsessing about speeding up the game (I agree) and them making a legitimate rule to stop pitchers from hopping closer to the batter before throwing. 

  13. 1) This is a great thread. Passionate fans are awesome. Cracks me up. Nothing worse than teams aging and not rebuilding though. If I were a ChiSox fan I'd be really excited about the Moncada & Giolito deals. 

    2) Complete side note: I had to do a double take when I saw @mysonx3 is a Mariners & Dodgers fan. I always read that name as mysox3 and assumed Red Sox fan

  14. 17 minutes ago, parrothead said:

    I undestand its about future returns, my point with Harper is that he never brings good value, and given his injury history, his crap year last year where at one point they almost sent him to the minors or were discussing exactly what to do with Bryce a guy coming off that year should NEVER cost you a 1st round pick.  He may very well produce good numbers this year, Im just not willing to pay near full price to find out.  

     

    To me drafts are a lot about value, its like buying stocks.  If a company had a great fiscal year, great earnings, great company, stock price is $150 a share then the next year, the product tanks stock now at like $98 a share, with Bryce Harper, its like people are saying even though the stock is currently worth 98 a share, I will pay $150 because of future returns?  Thats what I feel people do with Bryce Harper almost every year, and really only last season when he was coming off the MVP season did paying the price they were make any sense.   Saying the only player you would take in an OBP league over him is Trout is just rosy colored glasses mancrush Byrce Bryce Baby t-shirt wearing fantasy land.  Its paying $150 a share for the stock worth 98.  

     

    When you say things "he NEVER brings good value..." <Lie> and "at one point last year they almost sent him to the minors..." <Lie>, it's hard to think you're able to look at things objectively here. 

    1) I believe it was @taobball who said he'd take him #2 in OBP leagues. So you're mixing up posters. 

    2) I like your stocks analogy. But I think it's a touch off. It was once $150 (see, don't say never. He did once bring good value). Last year it was $98. So what you're paying this year (say pick 10-12) is about $125. I think at that spot, it takes into account potential to not reach that value, but also the potential to be worth more. 

  15. 1 minute ago, parrothead said:

    Sorry but not sure what league you are in that 3-years matters?  If a guy took him No.1 last year, he was disappointed.  

     

    His point though is at this point, last year doesn't matter. It's about projecting future returns. And to do that, there are better ways to see what kind of offensive player a guy is than "What did he do the one previous season." It's "What type of hitter is this guy, so I can project what he'll be for me this season." And a stat like wRC+ gives us a nice snapshot at his offensive production. Especially for a guy who has had injury issues. 

  16. 9 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

    Arenado has an insanely high floor. 

     

    5 category guys like Trout, Betts, Altuve, Goldschmidt also have insanely high floors. So not sure why you'd think that would help the argument for Arenado being taken #1. What's pretty transparent is that you're not. You're taking your "fight" from the Bryce thread and carrying it over the the Arenado thread. Dude. You don't have to fight everybody. It's going to be ok. Just stop. 

  17. 14 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

    You can't possibly think wRC+ is meaningful for fantasy, can you?

    And by the way, when did a player's floor become equivalent to what he's done for his career? That might be his baseline (if you completely ignore how he got there), but his floor is far lower than that. Far.

    He clearly said that he's not looking at 5 category stats, but underlying peripherals. wRC+ is a great stat to measure a guy's offensive production. 

    I also disagree with "if he hits the way he has 80% of his career, you lose your league." This is just plain false. Whether it's .243/24/21 or .272/20/11, these lines didn't lose you a league. Leagues are won when you're able to steal Villars & Seguras and Trumbos mid rounds. And yes, an elite contributor in the 1st helps. But it isn't mandatory. 

    As far as Bryce this year, his 5 year, 162 average is a good baseline to me. .279/102/30/82/14

    That looks like KBryant, but we all know he's fluctuated (mostly due to missed time). So Bryce is going exactly where he should. Picks 9-12 in the 1st round. 

  18. 16 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

    I just have a huge man crush on Arenado this year, and this is coming from a diehard Angels fan who obviously loves Mike Trout. I don't think I actually would take Arenado over Trout or Betts but I can see him finishing as the best player in fantasy baseball this year.

     

    How do you see him finishing as the best fantasy player? Do you see him hitting .315? Do you see him getting 10-12 SBs? Otherwise, that won't happen. That was kinda the point of my post. 

  19. Well a quick look and I saw NCruz hit 24 HR+ for 6 straight seasons. CDavis for 5 straight (6th was in minors). So there's bankable power out there. 

    Its funny that people still consider Stanton a high draft pick. There's no recency bias here. It's name recognition bias, and "Moon shots I see on Sportscenter" bias. 

    At one time Stanton was being taken so high because it looked like .285 was a distinct possibility, and he also chipped in 13 SBs. At 24 years old. THAT was tantalizing. 

    But he's 27 now. We have over 3,000 PA of data which tell he's a ~.266 hitter. And the SBs have dried up. So let's say he stays relatively healthy and hits HRs like we all believe he will. Say he closes in on 50. A line something like this:

     

    .260/94/47/108/2

     

    Well, then he's Mark Trumbo 2016. And while I'm not saying you can bank on a Trumbo repeat, Trumbo was ranked 60th on ESPN player rater last season. 

     

    If you grab Stanton earlier than the 5th round, you're looking at a <1% chance you get a return on investment. You need to hope, not just that he stays healthy and hits HRs, but that his average creeps above .275, or he can close in on 10 SBs. Doesn't seem like a solid bet. 

    • Like 8
  20. 1 hour ago, RedRaider27 said:

    It would be very hard to take him over Trout or Mookie, but man, I just might do it. I love this guy, have for years. Give me the 3rd pick so I don't do the unthinkable and take him over those two.

    Ha. And that's the emotional part of the game we all love. I don't know that I'd blink if he was taken 2nd or 3rd. I just don't see it as the prudent play. 

  21. 7 minutes ago, taobball said:

     

    Agree to an incredible extent. My only one caveat: is Nolan/Bryant/Machado a clear 6/7/8? Here's my two bits:

     

    Firstly, I think Nolan/Bryant is the clear 6/7 to me. 

     

    And then I do love Machado and his SS/3B el, but to me, stats wise I actually am a bit more confident in Donaldson. I have Machado 8th, but it's definitely not clear to me. I have Machado Donaldson in an 8/9 the same way I have Bryant Nolan in a 6/7. 

     

    Otherwise though we're 110% on board with how we see the first round. 

    I'll admit I'm really into the younger guys (YOU know what I'm sayin'!) and probably slightly lean Machado in my head because I'm always in keeper mode. We're in agreement though (I didn't put them in order up there), Arenado/Bryant 6/7, Machado/Donaldson 8/9. And you're right, this year only, I probably lean Donaldson. 

    The main point is I think people underestimate the effect of getting a strong run producer who also steals (and not needing to dive for "cheap speed" later) as well as getting 700+ PAs at .315+.

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