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Everything posted by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

  1. 2019 TE Ranks Advanced Metrics: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/te/2019 Catch Rate: 5th best in the NFL among all TEs DYAR: 9th best among all TEs DVOA: 6th best among all TEs Yards/Reception: 7th best among all TEs In case you haven't heard, Delanie Walker is no longer in his way, he's in a contract year, and he's been working out with Tannehill every week this summer ... oh, his current offensive coordinator is his former TE coach who wants to open up the offense with more "explosive plays" in the passing game ... oh, Jonnu's broad jump (short area
  2. 1. I never said "on all accords" ... quite the opposite, actually: "depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot 2. I also never said a team will be left holding an empty b
  3. It'll be interesting, Minnesota had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the entire league last year (only TEN/BAL had less) and Diggs still put up numbers ... although his yards per reception appears to be a huge outlier (12.7 career average, 17.9 last year) and as you said, BUF has plenty of other mouths to feed. BUF averaged 32 passes a game last year; even if we give Diggs a 25% target share (this is a higher % than Julio/Godwin last year), that's 8 targets/game (128/season). Based on his career catch %, that gives Diggs 87 receptions for ~1100 yards and 7 TDs. This is his absolute ceilin
  4. I didn’t say it means Ertz is now going way earlier than he should. I said/meant owning these 2 means the rest of the league’s options at TE have been significantly impacted ... in addition to these 2 being elite point producers. In the end, points are points. If I can land this production at a spot like TE, while the rest of the league fights for scraps - I’m at a big advantage over the rest. So yes, it is as simple as supply and demand. The supply effect is obvious, while the demand for the remaining top 5 guys only goes up. Owning both means : You don’t have either and m
  5. I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility. Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got
  6. No, Not only does the next guy lose them, it’s now pushing every other TE up the board - which impacts every other team as well. The guy taking Kittle now takes Ertz, the guy who was in line for Ertz is now taking ___ .... it’s not that difficult. Basic supply and demand.
  7. going to depend on who's available, but I would absolutely consider doing this. kudos for actually being able to think "outside the box". Points are points, Kelce/Kittle are elite producers. and you'll be putting the rest of your league at a huge TE disadvantage
  8. depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot if you can't start both, then absolutely not. i hate drafting "trade bait".
  9. walker and Jonnu combined for 75 targets last year. Jonnu’s career catch percentage is 70% of targets. If nothing whatsoever changes about the offense, that puts him in the 50-55 receptions / low end TE1 territory already. Try analyzing data with context, rather than a 2 minute google quest to prove someone wrong. He needs 85 targets to reach the 60 catch floor. 85 targets out of 448 passing attempts (again, assuming nothing changes ... despite everything pointing to a more balanced attack) is well within reach. Thats’s a 19% target share. Considering they tar
  10. 1. those yards count, on top of the fact they show he’s athletic enough to rip off 50+ yard pitches from the backfield 2. I cherry picked nothing, I simply pointed out those target numbers were skewed by 2 “0s” in games they blew their opponent out of the water and didn’t need to throw the ball. You also didn’t account for the fact targets that went to Walker are now going somewhere ... and it’s likely Jonnu. 3. The 2019 scheme is changing, the guy calling the plays knows it needs to. Good luck this year.
  11. don't forget to include the 3 rushing attempts (yes, rushing) for 68 yards ... with those target numbers skewed by the fact he received 0 targets in 2 blowout wins (ironically 2 of the games he received a carry). it's been real. Jonnu's awesome, I dont think he'll crack top 5 due to this still being a defense/run first team ... but there aren't 10 TEs I would rather have this year and he's being drafted where kickers go.
  12. Last year. “We have to evolve (as an offense)...We don't want to get stale. We need to improve.” "“I’ve got a long way to go (as an offensive coordinator)... Every season you start over. We’ve got to make more improvement and certainly I’m aware of that." “We’ll see how the season evolves for (Henry), see what happens with the other running back spot, whoever emerges or how our guys divvy up the carries ... We’ve got a lot of explosive guys on our offense, and I’ve got to do a good job of finding ways to make sure different guys get touches, and that will naturally spread out.
  13. Again, if absolutely nothing changes (it has, but let’s pretend it hasn’t), the games without Walker + his career catch % put him right around 50-55 receptions, the threshold for a “low end TE1” last year. In short, his floor is going to be a TE1 for dirt cheap ... while the upside is undeniable. An absolute no brainer selection at his current price. Plain and simple. Titans targeted TEs 108 times last year, 24% of their pass attempts. Walker and Jonnu combined for 70% of TE targets. I think it’s fair to assume Smith will soak up those targets left after Walker. Jonnu managed 4
  14. 1. Size, athleticism, big play ability ... no, they aren’t close. Barkley blows CMC out of the water in essentially every one of these categories, and the objective data (try it sometime) only proves the point. Barkley’s ripping off more big plays on significantly less career touches so far, fumbling less, and averaging more total yards per game with nearly identical yards per reception. In short, there is nothing CMC does that Barkley can’t ... while there seems to be quite a few plays Barkley has already made that CMC couldn’t if he wanted to. The fact that Barkley is doing this with a frame
  15. Google “Arthur Smith 2020” . I honestly couldn’t care less if you’re sold on Jonnu ... he’s awesome, he’s going to be used - a lot.
  16. They are drastically changing the scheme. That’s the point. The OC (former TE coach) has explicitly said the offense/passing game needs to be more explosive.
  17. This. The cost is nothing, the reward is potential league winning / 2020’s Darren Waller.
  18. 33 targets in 8 games without Walker, but exclude whatever fits your argument. That’s a 66 target pace for a season. If nothing changes, he’s got around a 50 catch floor based on his career catch % ... right around “low end TE1” territory. That’s if absolutely nothing changes. (Things have changed). Oh, he’s also flashed the ability to rip off huge gains/TDs despite his limited opportunities. Smith is an amazing talent, in a contract year, working out with the QB every week, and 1 or the brightest minds to ever be associated with the sport agrees with me on Smith’s skill set.
  19. 5 targets a game is well within reach, he averaged slightly over 4 targets / game after Walker went down last year Doesn’t hurt that Tannehill and Smith have been working out together on a weekly basis. No reason he won’t see 80-90 targets this year. Or are people still pretending Corey Davis is gonna be a thing? Ask Bill Belichek what he thinks of this guy. I’m not the only one who sees when he touches the ball, very good things tend to happen.
  20. This is exactly the range I expect Jonnu to finish ... he is an incredible talent and finally going to be getting a huge snap/target share (Not a knock on Brown, love him too)
  21. Every known (and unknown) force in the universe is aligned for a breakout this year. I’ll say it, his stat line will not be much different than AJ Brown’s by seasons end. Do yourselves and get this man on your rosters.
  22. well said. This is the year to have the #2 pick ... queue up these 2 and let the 1st guy decide ... plus you get the earlier 2nd rounder Oh the numbers Barkley would put up if he was force fed the touches CMC got last year ...
  23. Daniel Jones is everything everyone’s drooling over Josh Allen for in terms of fantasy upside ... only more accurate. Their athletic profiles are essentially cut and paste. Love both this year, but Jones was an absurd value. Well done.
  24. I figure these guys are gonna be in bubble wrap until September with no preseason and roster sizes cut down ; doubt much changes
  25. I just might be crazy enough to plug Chris Thompson into my RB2 spot ...
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