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InmanRoshi

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  1. I think we tend to anticipate mean regression too much when we don't really know what the mean is. I don't expect Aaron Rodgers to mean regress downward to some generic QB baseline, nor do I expect Blaine Gabbert to mean regress upwards to some generic baseline QB. Mean regression would be more powerful if we had a better idea of what Dak's "mean" is. He's only played 1 year. Maybe he's just really good at avoiding bad throws and turnovers. If he avoided turnovers because he received an inordinate amount of luck on tipped passes and dropped INTs I would anticipate more regression t
  2. Is there any talk of Wentz, Lynch or Goff going throgh a "sophomore slump"? It's interesting that the narratives around every sophomore QB not Dak is that they're naturally going to improve as they progress through their career arc, but Dak (and only Dak) will regress with experience and more time to physically/mentally develop in his 2nd year. Maybe some mean reversion is justifiably anticipated, but I can't help but feels more likely we have a lot of "evaluators" who just can't yet bring themselves to admit how they wrong they were about Dak and clinging to the stereotypes that dropped
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