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KingJoffrey

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Posts posted by KingJoffrey

  1. 6 minutes ago, Overlord said:

    Don't forget he is moving from Progressive Field, which has played anywhere from neutral to a top five hitters park over the past five seasons, to Citi Field, which is one of the absolute 2-3 worst parks for hitters (arguably, it's currently the worst since a few other fields have brought fences in).  

    Lindor was an obvious "no thanks" for me.  

    True but the Mets are loaded with Fantasy assets...Alonso, Conforto, Lindor, DomSmith.

  2. 2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

    Lindor is a fade for ME  since I really try to avoid hitters that switch leagues.

    Yeah but could he do worse than last year?

    Kidding..actually the problem here may be the division he is in has some good hurlers, Scherzer, Stras, Nola, Wheeler, Fried, Andersen and those up and coming Marlins.  Not like facing Tigers and KC pitching and non Giliolito White Sox.

    • Like 1
  3. Just now, StevieStats said:

    I'm going bold here...

    Busts:

    -Mookie Betts (barrels in 3 year decline to only 7.7% last year 48th percentile, ball not as bouncy, futility vs LHP 0 HR .531 OPS)

    -Acuna Jr (Contact issues errodes further, slips under 250 avg and production suffers)

    -Lindor (Mets)

    -Machado (his August tear will look less appealing over a full season)

     

    Oh geez friend..run for your life...run with all your might!!

    • Haha 2
  4. Bellinger's "Fade" also must take into account, we don't know where he's going to hit in the batting order.  Granted the Dodgers have no ordinary batting order. But It further lowers his downside.  I am aware he batted 4th in the last ST game.  But he generally batted 6th in the 2020 playoffs.  You got a player like J-Ram and he struggles a bit unexpectedly, he's never leaving the top of the batting order.

  5. I'm not super high on him to be honest.  I'd rather have Lowe or take my chances with an Altuve bounceback.

    But he was on pace for 20-25 SB in 2019.  2020 was slightly down.  But if 2020 was given prime importance,  Most of those other guys would be faded hard.

  6. 31 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

    He's going 64.  That's pretty high.  4th 2B off the board, ahead of Lowe, Hiura, Marte & well ahead of McNeil, Altuve, Muncy & Moustakas.

    I respectfully counter with this:

    a) There's more to life than Yahoo ADP.  Biggio is ranked 7th by Lindy's and 7th or 8th from other fantasy sources. He's by no means the 4th ranked 2B by all measures.

    b) Those other 2b listed are generally very close.  Within 5 -10 picks.  So taking Lowe over him isn't much of a reach at all.

    c) Offers the ever scarce stolen bases.  Unlike any of the other 2B you listed after him. Providing some floor.

     

  7. Last night's Salary Cap (Auction) draft.

    Easily the worst experience I ever had drafting in my life.  I have won or finished 2nd in the past 4 years.  Might as well have a bullseye sign on my forehead.  it became crystal clear to me that I wasn't going to get my picks, even if it meant other teams damaging their own just to spite me.

    I wanted Tim Anderson, I am big on TA this year.  Thought I could get him for 24 or so.  Nope.  Bid into the stratosphere and closed at 31.

    DJ Lemahieu.  My targeted pick and was hoping around 25.  Nope, Bid up to 31 again.

    Paul Goldschmidt, my 1B sleeper.  Think he will bounce back. Bid Up to 20, I had to pay it.

    Max Fried, got bid up to 17 instead of his 10-14 dollar price.  And on and on it went.

    You might think these guys are just newbs but Soto only went for 48, Trout for 46, Mookie for 48.  Pretty reasonable.  I just avoided going for the top stars.  I would have if I had known.

  8. The fade on Biggio - seems a little overblown.  He’s not the most talented blue jay.  He’s not Trout or Soto either. But he’s not going for very much.  Not sure if he doesn’t bat higher in the order.  It’s not like the Blue Jays haven’t health or consistency issues the past few years.  Who knows how long Springer is out.  He’s especially more useful in Obp leagues.

    • Like 1
  9. I'm fading Jack Flaherty.  Owned him last year.  Once bitten, twice shy.  I remember someone posting how his slider wasn't actually elite or something like that.  Really had only 1 good half of a season.

  10. I can't believe there's no thread for this polarizing player. 

    Great player but very streaky.  His lineup is a lot worse without Lindor.  But Hernandez is somewhat underrated (good enough OBP).  Rosario batting 2nd seems weird to me.  Jram is a true potential 5 category elite player.  

  11. I had to look a few times to see there was no threads on him yet at Mar 29.

    I can understand people's reluctance to buy in if it's the "old Stanton cost" which used to be 45-50, then 30 something.  Now it has fallen to 15 avg cost at auction. (or equivalent in drafts).  He's injury prone sure but at that price, I think he's too cheap to pass up.  The upside is just too high.  He's going to be the every day DH pretty much now.

    The risk-reward profile is insane right now.

    • Like 3
  12. In Auction drafts (Salary cap drafts) I often see people nominate in the same order as you would expect to see people drafted..like Tatis, Acuna, Betts, Soto etc.

    Absolutely horrible strategy. especially if you have the notion to grab a top player yourself.

    Nomination suspects:

    1 - The best closer...pop him in early and watch people Overpay.  How many discussions have we had on Rotoworld about Closer turnover.  Yet if you nominate Hendricks in the first round, he'll go for 25 maybe.  

    2- If there's someone away, it's kind of mean, but nominate an injured guy and the autodraft will pick them up.  ( personally as commissioner I will stop this).

    3. Nominate players you feel will be overvalued, maybe it's a hunch or maybe it's good stats analaysis.

    4) nominate the best player in whatever city you live in first.  Watch inflation kick in.  For  example, I live in Toronto and could nominate Bo Bichette.

    Try to get your opponents to overspend early, giving you more money to go shopping.

  13. Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I am starting this thread in reaction to the mock draft on here as well as other mock drafts I have been in where, consistently, Goldy is going so cheap.  we are less than a week away from opening day and no thread yet on this once top superstar.

    Did he really fall that much in value?  

    In 2020 Goldy:

    a) had his 2nd best walk rate ever 16%

    b) had his best K rate ever 18.6%

    c) Had his lowest GB% and highest LD% ever, along with his worst ever HR/FB rate.

    His Sprint Speed fell off but generally there's no SB from 1B anyways.

    He's going for like 70th overall on average but in the mocks I've seen he's going for like 80-100 range.  Way too low IMO.

    • Like 2
  14. You know I have been looking at this, because it seemed unsettling to me.  I have always had this thesis that at Auction Roto, you should always have one ace.

    In my short review of the article writer's "analysis", I have come to the conclusion that there's something seriously wrong.  I think the methodology is "cooked " a little bit.

    Informally, I am looking back at SP taken in the first round.  The article implies that a) it is common for SPs to even appear in the ADP of the first round (it is not) and b) Starters drafted in the first round fail to live up to their performance commonly and more often than position players.

    Well first, my recent analysis of the last 4 years (since 2017) shows there haven't even been that many Starters to even appear in the commonly accepted ADP of the first round.  Kershaw, Sale, Degrom, Scherzer and Gerrit Cole.

    a) even though Sale kind of fell apart in 2019, he did have an elite Whip and K ratio in the innings he pitched.

    b) Degrom so far has not been off the list since first appearing.

    c) Kershaw has generally been very consistent and it would just be natural to remove a pitcher from the first round due to age, some fall off would already be accounted for.

    D) Scherzer was consistently excellent except for last year, but still was decent, posted an Elite K rate and would probably have fallen off the list  naturally due to age.  

    E) Cole has been pretty consistently excellent since making the list.

    Lots of Position players really fell off the wagon since 2017.  It's not bad, but when you start looking at some of the guys going around 13th and who may have made it to some top 12 lists, like Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez..not to mention2020  shortened season Yelich, Bellinger and Lindor.

    In short, I would really like to see a more complete statistical analysis as this article doesn't pass my sniff test.

     

    • Like 1
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