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rschroeder1

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Posts posted by rschroeder1

  1. 6 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

    Betcha they will draft a RB or sign a priority UDFA.  Edmonds is going to be a bye-week, desperation flex in full ppr leagues only.

    If that's your keeper, you must be playing in a very deep league indeed.

    We're rolling over rosters from the conclusion of the 2019 season due to the pandemic, so there will be some wacky decision-making taking place.  Suffice to say, keeping any RB1-RB3 in this league has value.

    I don't believe the coach speak about Edmonds, but I also don't believe that Conner is a legitimate three-down back.  I also think Edmonds' dramatic increase in usage - 23-21-67 targets in his first three years - would lean towards an uptick in use in '21.  I'm not expecting RB1 territory or anything, aiming for a weekly contributor in a 12-team league.

  2. For transparency, Edmonds is a likely keeper for me in '21.

    I have a different perspective on the Conner signing.  To be honest, I'm thrilled with it.  From a real-life perspective, the Cardinals were obviously going to add another running back, even if Edmonds was the "bellcow" back.  It's just reality of NFL roster construction.

    That said, I have never expected Edmonds to be a bellcow back.  My hope is that he is 1B in a tandem.  If he ends up as 1A, well that's just a cherry on top.

    The signing of Conner would seem to reduce the likelihood the Cardinals draft a true 3-down back with their limited draft capital.

    As for Conner himself, perhaps I'm biased, but I just don't see him as a true lead back as Kenyan Drake was.

    • Like 1
  3. For transparency, Edmonds is a potential keeper candidate for me in 2021.

    I think there's too much dichotomy in the discussion here - there can be a middle ground between Edmonds as a clear-cut starter or Edmonds functioning only in a secondary role with a rookie RB handling every-down carries.  Not every rookie RB is immediately pro ready - see Jonathan Taylor last year.  Can Edmonds serve as a 1B with a drafted back as 1A?  I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it seems odd this board is discounting that scenario.

    Edmonds saw a significant increase in targets from '19 to '20:  21 to 67.  I'm not sure why we would assume his target cap is in the range of 67.  This growth and success as a receiving back (rated 5th by Football Outsiders DVOA) would not suggest to me a reduced role.

    After a finish as RB28 in .5 PPR, I'm optimistic Edmonds will see increased volume to move into RB2 territory (for a 12 team league at least).  But, the draft awaits.

  4. With Lamar's positive COVID test, how are folks feeling about Gus?  Let's presume he is the lone RB for Sunday (and the game actually happens).

    I own Gus and I have no clue what to think here.  Volume should go up...but game flow could go south in a hurry.  I'm 50/50 at the moment if I go with an alternative.

  5. 9 minutes ago, HooDat said:

    Coleman still hasn't been activated and that leaves only Hasty and "Tired Legs" McKinnon this week

    I think Hasty is going to be eating good against the Seahawks

     

    Does anyone know if there is a deadline for activation from IR?

    Edit: has to be announced by Saturday afternoon.  Thanks to a previous poster for the info.

  6. I find some of the comments here to be rather amusing.  Can anyone name a single WR who posted a good, if not great, fantasy season, when their team lost their perennially solid quarterback, eventually went to the third quarterback, and committed to running the ball 40 times per game?

    This is assuredly a long list...

    In all seriousness, if people don't think Juju is a superior WR, that's cool.  I think it's a fair debate if he's a bona fide #1 without an AB-type player until he proves it.  But maybe he doesn't have to be that type of receiver to be successful in fantasy.

    He still has the traits I would look for in a fantasy receiver.  Excels at route running, used in a variety of different situations (deep, middle, underneath, screens, sweeps), has enough speed to break long gains and scores, etc.  Situations change every year, and of course for redraft that has to be evaluated.  But I would be hard-pressed to say Juju's skills regressed last year.

    For transparency, Juju is one of my keepers in a keep-4 league.

    • Like 4
  7. Agreed with most here - Waller is probably due for some regression in catches, but the YAC stat should ensure that he's going to post sustainable yards.  It's also reasonable to expect an uptick in touchdowns.  That being said, if he's being drafted at the level of Ertz/Andrews...that's a steep cost for redraft.

    I could see a scenario in which Waller posts similar numbers...rookie WRs who seem to have talent and will need some respect from defenses, but may not be ready to be bona fide WR1/WR2 right away.  Raiders' game flow should continue to be positive.

    For transparency, I'm likely keeping Waller in a keeper league.

     

    • Like 1
  8. 1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

    Gotta know if it is PPR in these kinds of questions...

    IF it is I would very much consider Ekeler as a 2nd, then roll with Singletary, Waller and JuJu in other spots.

     

    Sorry about that, it's .5 PPR.  Thanks for taking the time to weigh in!

  9. I don't have to select keepers until August 2020, but I have found it's helpful to understand people's perspectives about players now before the churn of the draft and the offseason.  Helps me to identify my own biases and what I think might be overvaluing/undervaluing.  Your input is greatly appreciated!

    League info:  12 teams, 17 roster spots, snake draft, my 2020 draft position = 10th.

    Positions:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE

    Keeper info: up to 4 keepers per team.  Keeper value = 1 draft round higher than the previous year.  You can keep a player through their value as a first-round pick.

    2019 Final Roster (2020 Draft Round Value)
    Keenan Allen (1)
    Austin Ekeler (2)
    Matt Brieda (4)
    Matt Ryan (5)
    Marlon Mack (6) (2019 keeper)
    Cooper Kupp (7) (2019 keeper)
    Devin Singletary (8)
    Justin Jackson (8)
    Devonta Freeman (10) (2019 keeper)
    Ito Smith (11)
    Chase Edmonds (12)
    Dallas Goedert (12)
    Ryquell Armstead (12)
    Darren Waller (13)
    Juju Smith-Schuster (16) (2019 keeper)
    JJ Arcega-Whiteside (16)
    Reggie Bonnafon (17)

    My initial plan:  Juju is obvious.  If Singletary enters the 2020 season as the lead back, he's tremendous value at 8, with RB at an absolute premium due to keepers.  I still like Kupp, despite his declining usage down the stretch.

    Don't know what to do about Waller - OAK is bound to improve at WR, and the QB situation is up in the air.  Also not sure about Mack.  At the end of the season, the numbers are there, but his absolute lack of involvement in the passing game makes me wonder if I'm using a keeper spot for too low of a ceiling.

    Is Ekeler worth it as a 2nd round pick if he's the guy at LAC?  There's value in the guarantee I have him, but his round value would probably be low 1st/high 2nd next year anyways, i.e. I'm not gaining keeper round value on him.

  10. I have some not-so-pleasant matchups this week!  The options are:

    Devonta Freeman at SF
    Marlon Mack at NO
    Juju Smith-Schuster vs. BUF
    Dallas Goedert at WAS

    Free Agent Options
    Russell Gate (WR) at SF
    JJ Arcega-Whiteside (WR) at WAS

    Relevant starts from my opponent
    Julio Jones
    Zach Ertz

    I'm leaning toward Goedert.  My guess is the Washington defense is heavily focused on Ertz with no other warm bodies left at WR for the Eagles, and Goedert has the opportunity for a big day.  Frankly, I like his TD potential the most among that group.

    Appreciate anyone's insight!

  11. 1 hour ago, kraftwrk_5 said:

     

    But Damien has never been the clear starter this year. First they signed Carlos Hyde. Then Reid kept talking about a committee. Then after cutting Hyde, they immediately signed Shady once he became available. It was never in the cards for Damien to be “the man” this year, and when Reid brought in Shady, that was the final straw for me. I released Damien into the draft (could’ve kept him) and targeted Shady in the later/middle rounds instead (got him in the 9th).

    Darrel was always going to be part of the equation, and he’s gotten better at pass pro and receiving, so thus more useful from Reid’s standpoint. It’s a new year. I know a lot of KC fans too, and they’ve been saying “watch out for Darrel” for a long time. It’s finally starting to be his time.

     

    Building on this, there's a big difference between the fantasy perspective and the real-life football perspective.

    KC's signing of Carlos Hyde seemed to be designed in regard to possibly obtaining a compensatory pick (Hyde was cut so he doesn't count against a compensatory pick).  Likewise, KC's lack of pursuit of a UFA running back in the free agency period.

    Why would they draft a running back?  Because 1) every team needs depth at RB and 2) at the point of the draft, the team had zero RB under contract after 2020.  This doesn't mean that Thompson is or isn't good.

    Whether or not they really liked McCoy, they kind of backed themselves into that signing by cutting Hyde.  No matter what you may think of Darrel Williams, they certainly weren't going to go into a Super Bowl season with 3 RB being Damien, Darrel and Darwin.  That's an awful lot of unknown and risk.

    My perspective is that I don't think their offseason moves tell us a lot about Darrel Williams, mainly because we amateurs and the professionals with the Chiefs haven't really seen Darrel get a chance to play - until last week.  Sometimes it just takes an opportunity to get on the field to show what you can do.

    • Like 1
  12. 1 hour ago, tts42572 said:

     

    Might be all true.

    But I keep asking myself....If they trusted Darrell so much, why did they go out and get McCoy in the first place?  Seems to me they were in pretty good shape with Damien, Darrell and Darwin.

    Either way though, I agree that Darrell looks good.  The guy is a man child out there and has shown he's capable of playing all 3 downs.  He's probably much more of the Chiefs future than McCoy is.

    I guess I'd never make it as a coach in the NFL.  There are plenty of guys I see out there and constantly wonder why they don't get more opportunities.  I look at the Chiefs...They'd rather screw around with a 31 year old has been in McCoy and a career backup in Damien Williams than give two promising youngsters in Darrell and Darwin more chances.  I mean, those two could be like thunder and lightening out there if you ask me. 

    All that said though, I still feel like Darrell will probably get tossed back into the third spot in the rotation when Damien is healthy.  It's pretty obvious Reid has a man crush on McCoy.  Darrell's only chance could be unseating Damien for the passing down/COP role which maybe could happen.  But most likely Damien goes back into that role or Damien and Darrell split the role.

    It's just going to be a weekly dart throw trying to guess which guy to play IMO.

     

    Given the emphasis on compensatory picks, the Chiefs' signing of Carlos Hyde kind of set them up for the McCoy signing.  Hyde, having been cut by JAX, wouldn't count in the +/- tally in an attempt to gain a compensatory pick - if they were aiming for one.  Basically, they could worry about other FA signings that would count in the +/- tally without having one additional signing.  When Hyde was cut, if they wanted to add a player, well, there wasn't a lot to choose from.  McCoy was by far the best of the bunch.

    I don't mean to say McCoy isn't good or is inadequate - just guessing on how the Chiefs' strategy led to the McCoy signing.

    I also think that you might be putting too much weight on Damien, Darrel and Darwin.  We don't really know if Darwin is good or not - maybe the Chiefs do, but we have virtually nothing to work with.  The Chiefs have had more time with Darrel to know if he has some talent, but not a lot of in-game time to make that assessment.  Damien has a five-game stretch of success to his name.  That's it.  For a team with Super Bowl aspirations now, there's an element of risk there.

    No surprise they would add depth when the opportunity presented itself.

    • Thanks 1
  13. 54 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

     

    He was on the team all last year. 

    Reid jumped on McCoy as soon as he was cut. I really don’t know what to make of it. Seems like he’s got more potential than your run of the mill back up though. As a McCoy owner in a league where someone else already has Derrel I hope not but I guess we’ll see! Lol!

     

    Right, but last year was his rookie year as an undrafted free agent.  It should not come as any surprise that he didn't play until they were running short on warm bodies.

    I don't think anyone's trying to make the claim Darrel is the next superstar running back.  But this wouldn't be the first time that a player had to get the opportunity via injury or whatever else to get on the field to show what he can do.  We have a direct example from last year - Damien Williams.

    To recall briefly, Damien was essentially an unwanted player.  He was an RFA after the '16 season and zero of the 31 teams that were not his team offered him a contract (which, in fairness, may have had to do with his tender value).  After '17, the Chiefs offered him a very small contract ($1 million for one year), and he served as a special teams guy until Hunt and Ware couldn't play.  Then he played...and perceptions on Damien changed pretty quickly.

    One point on the McCoy signing - as with the Carlos Hyde signing, by adding players who had been cut (Hyde cut by the Jaguars), those signings do not count in the +/- free agency tally for compensatory picks.  For as much grief as Hyde got, that's likely the reason they signed him.  Certainly, McCoy's history with Reid is a factor here, but given that the Chiefs weren't going to go after a free agent for either monetary or compensatory reasons, the McCoy signing makes a lot of sense.

    In the end, though, I see Darrel as a dart throw with some logic behind it.  By my eyes, Darrel showed some positives on Sunday, and the two backs theoretically in front of him have real questions marks.

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  14. 2 hours ago, FreakFries said:

     

    Actually, I’ve been reading about Darrel and I wondering how it is this guy went undrafted. He was behind Fournett and Guice at LSU so maybe that’s why he went under the radar a bit? He was named team MVP after he took over for Guice. His NFL scouting report has him as a backup prospect and another scout pegged him as a 4th round talent. Weaknesses listed were ability to let lanes develop, burst hitting holes and speed. I don’t really see those as being a problem with defenses sweating over sprinting down field every time the ball is snapped. 

    What makes me curious is why Reid would not have given him the lead role or used him more already. 

    Time will tell.

     

    Perhaps the answer is "it's early."  Two games to see what they had with Damien and McCoy.  Things seemed to work pretty well with Damien last year.  McCoy's track record speaks for itself.

    Perhaps seeing a player in real game usage changes the perception, too.

  15. 3 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

     

    Fair enough.  Good info.  I still don't think he's hopping past McCoy or Damien without injuries to both.

     

    Yeah, the path is no doubt convoluted.  Having drafted him as a lotto ticket, I'm liking my lotto ticket value at this point in time.  The biggest thing that impressed me was his pass blocking.  If the opportunity presents itself, he's going to be trusted to play.

    Given McCoy's age and the general vagueness surrounding Damien Williams' injury, right now I'm in "heck, why not" mode.  While I have no basis to offer any prediction on him becoming the starter, he passed the eye test for me in terms of running with the opportunity when available.

    I also offer advice on playing the real lottery 🤔

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  16. 16 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

     

    Yeah.  I don't get it.  There's no way he is going to jump McCoy and Damien on talent alone.  The guy ran a 4.72 40-yard dash.  Not saying he can't be productive in the KC offense....we saw that yesterday.  But if McCoy and/or Damien are healthy, he's not playing over them.  He only got action because McCoy started the game dinged up, and left the game after the 3rd.

    You're basically hoping for two major injuries to McCoy and Damien.  If one of them is healthy, Darrel will be on the short end of a timeshare at best.  Not startable.

     

    I don't mean to harp on it...but according to the NFL Next Gen Stats, he clocked the fifth fastest single-play speed yesterday at 20.88 mph on his 41-yard run.

    Perhaps the 40-yard, no pads, controlled environment Combine time isn't necessarily the best predictor of actual game speed.

    By my eye test, and the NFL stats, his game speed is fine.  First part is my opinion, certainly.

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  17. As a transparency alert, I drafted Darrel in a 12-team keeper league as a bench stash/lotto ticket.

    A few things stood out to me:

    - His pass protection was flawless - obviously, a good way to stay on the field.  Mahomes was comfortable looking his way for dump-offs in the short passing game as well.

    - He showed a good ability to create yards running in the interior when there wasn't much there.  There were two occasions I recall anecdotally where he was able to move the pile or contort his body to turn a no gain into a 2-3 yard gain.

    - He doesn't look like the most lithe back ever, but his one-cut moves in space are really effective.  I think concerns about his 40-time at the Combine are drastically overblown.  He plays with efficient game speed by my eyes, and the NFL Next Gen stats tell a similar story.

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  18. 6 hours ago, mmm sod said:

     

    I'm a Damien/Darrell owner (Even started Darrell today) but I think you are looking too stat-based.   And you can't say small sample size but then proclaim his efficiency especially when almost half his yards came on a single play that actually should have been a TD with a faster back. Curious if you watched the game today because all of your arguments are box-score based.

    Knile Davis put up great numbers with the Chiefs too and he was awful.  I'm not saying Darrel is Knile but he looked pretty sluggish out there tbh.  All 3 of the other backs would have been gone on that long run he had he got caught from behind on.  I know Hunt had a bad 40 yard dash but Darrel ran a 4.72 at combine and looked it today.

    What he has going for him is passblocking, big size, and his hands are good for a big dude, but he seems like a worse version of Damien who already isn't super electric to begin with.  Also worth note that LeSean replaced him on the goal line twice today even though Darrel is 6'1 225 lbs.

    I'm with you that we can't say we 'know' anything.  But even though it's small sample, the film means something he certainly doesn't look like some uber-explosive dude who is going to outplay a LeSean/Damien.  

    I think he'll be ahead of Darwin because of pass-blocking this year but unless LeSean/Damien are out extended periods of time, it seems a lot more likely that he fades into the background.  

    But again, I'm with you we don't know and it's about what Reid thinks, not me, so let's wait and see.

     

     

    Regarding Darrel's 41 yard run, according to NFL's Next Gen stats, he reached 20.88 mph on that carry, the fifth fastest single-play speed posted on the day.

    https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/top-plays/fastest-ball-carriers/2019/3

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  19. On 8/21/2019 at 10:59 AM, Bronco Billy said:

    His 4.72 40 puts him into a group of RBs where NFL success is virtually impossible.  This is one of the few cases where I really pay much attention to 40 times, and it is because it is such a huge red flag.

     

    I would caution putting too much stock into the Combine 40-time.  As a point of reference, at his LSU pro day, Williams ran a 4.59 40-time.

    https://www.lsureveille.com/daily/notebook-williams-jackson-shine-at-pro-day-key-shows-improvements/article_da604666-386e-11e8-96e0-a796f7e196b9.html

    Let's not forget that Kareem Hunt's 40 time at the Combine was 4.62.

    http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kareem-hunt?id=2557917

    Simply put, there are many players who we can adequately state that their game speed differs from their straight-line sprint speed without pads on under controlled conditions.

  20. 8 team league looking for 1 new player.  $25 entry fee, $150 to the winner, $50 to the runner-up.

    15 roster spots, .5 PPR scoring, snake draft with random lottery draw.  QB RB RB WR WR TE RB/WR WR/TE K D

    We play seriously to have fun.  If you're looking for a high stakes league, this probably isn't it.  We're all into it, but don't treat it as life and death.

    Draft is tentatively scheduled for the evening of Friday, August 23, but we can be flexible in that regard.

    Respond to this listing with your email address.  Thanks!

  21. 1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

    What needs to be considered is that other teams will be keeping all their excellent players as well.  That Generally means the ADP goes up an entire round in value. Second thing we need to know is if you can keep more than 1 per position?

    Ju Ju , Kupp and Mack would be my choices.      Kupp you will have to hold till late season as he is coming off an ACL, and he wont be right till the end of the year.  But, he will put you through the playoffs.

     

    There are no limits on positions that can be kept.  From my experience, the most ideal is to keep at least 2 RB, because RB are scarce in the keeper setup.

    This year, the first round ADP is as follows:

    1. Saquon Barkley
    2. Ezekiel Elliott
    3. Christian McCaffrey
    4. Le'Veon Bell (my draft slot)
    5. Melvin Gordon
    6. Julio Jones
    7. Todd Gurley
    8. Joe Mixon
    9. Travis Kelce
    10. Antonio Brown
    11. Dalvin Cook
    12. TY Hilton

    The next RBs are Fournette, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Mark Ingram, etc.  So while I realize Freeman is no guarantee of anything, I'm willing to take him to have 2 RB to start with because there's no guarantee at RB after Round 1, and after Round 2 they are downright scarce.  I'll definitely be going RB in the first round - if Zeke and Gordon are both season holdouts, that will complicate my life, no doubt.

    Notable keepers are Kamara, Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Pat Mahomes, Damien Williams, Nick Chubb, James Conner.  I'm sure I'm missing others, but you get the general gist here.

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