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Everything posted by rschroeder1

  1. There are no limits on positions that can be kept. From my experience, the most ideal is to keep at least 2 RB, because RB are scarce in the keeper setup. This year, the first round ADP is as follows: 1. Saquon Barkley 2. Ezekiel Elliott 3. Christian McCaffrey 4. Le'Veon Bell (my draft slot) 5. Melvin Gordon 6. Julio Jones 7. Todd Gurley 8. Joe Mixon 9. Travis Kelce 10. Antonio Brown 11. Dalvin Cook 12. TY Hilton The next RBs are Fournette, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Mark Ingram, etc. So while I realize Freeman is no guarantee of anything, I'm willing to take him to have 2 RB to start with because there's no guarantee at RB after Round 1, and after Round 2 they are downright scarce. I'll definitely be going RB in the first round - if Zeke and Gordon are both season holdouts, that will complicate my life, no doubt. Notable keepers are Kamara, Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Pat Mahomes, Damien Williams, Nick Chubb, James Conner. I'm sure I'm missing others, but you get the general gist here.
  2. League: 12 teams, 15 roster spots, QB RB RB WR WR TE RB/WR/TE Keeper rules: keep 0-4 players. Cost is one draft round higher than the previous year. Undrafted = 15th round. My draft position: 4th in a snake draft Note: we dropped K and D this year, so the round numbers might look funky below (notably Juju), as some players were previously 17th round keepers. Keeper Options (draft round for 2019) Amari Cooper (1) Carlos Hyde (4) Marlon Mack (7) Cooper Kupp (8) Courtland Sutton (9) Devonta Freeman (11) Ben Roethlisberger (12) Juju Smith-Schuster (15) Dante Pettis (15) Kalen Ballage (15) Hunter Henry (15) Jerick McKinnon (15) Darrel Williams (15) Malcolm Brown (15) My plan: Mack (7), Kupp (8), Freeman (11), Smith-Schuster (15). Very tempted by Pettis, though. Appreciate any insight you have to offer.
  3. Could you share your source for this? By what I can find, in 2017 he had 9 drops in 88 targets, about a 10% drop rate. Given that Breida's drop rate was 16.6% (6 drops in 36 targets), either Breida didn't qualify or something is amiss with what you are referencing.
  4. What does this actually mean, though? Hyde was 3rd in the NFL in RB targets (88). According to this article from the Sacramento Bee, he dropped 9 passes, which led the league. His drop rate was 1 drop for every 9.7 targets. Yet his back-up, Matt Breida, dropped 6 passes that season on 36 targets, a rate of 1 drop every 6 targets. Drop rate would probably be a better marker than total drops, due to volume. Drop stats seem to be hard to find on the Internet, however.
  5. If it is true that Hyde signed a multi-year deal with the Browns, how much money are they paying him this year? NFL teams can't just cancel contracts...unless a player is owed no money. If you want to deal with facts, simply state how much the Browns - or the Jags - are paying Hyde in '19. If you want to claim they restructured the deal, link to the restructured deal. If you want to claim the Chiefs are paying him from the Browns contract, then link to that contract. If you want to claim they cut him, we know that happened. Because there was no guaranteed money for '19 and '20. If you are factually correct, simply provide the evidence of the facts, and the rest of us will stop.
  6. Lying is definitely a symptom of depression. One can't deny that! I also am not seeking forgiveness from Rotoworld message boards. If forgiveness exists, and you get it here, the world is truly a depressing place. As to what I'm arguing, I'll quote myself from the first post I made in the Damien thread (all posts are publicly available, so no need to accuse me of lying). Me: "I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction. I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing." I don't agree that Damien has been anointed the starter. He may very well be the starter, but it is MY OPINION that offseason GM and coach-speak are not really worth relying on. You are free to think otherwise. I believe - MY OPINION - that KC's ranking of Williams as their third-string running back last year has to be taken into account - a running back they had zero plans of using (on pace for 4 carries for the entire season) before the Hunt debacle. It would be rather odd for a team to switch its view of a player from "third string, never use" to "anointed starter" with RB1 fantasy potential (for our purposes). It's possible, but I'm not sure why we should just accept that narrative without question. The "stats and production in KC" are from a sample size of 5 games, 3 in the regular season, with a total of 69 carries and 24 receptions. If you believe these are representative, the representative sample would be 1830 total yards, 76 catches, 25 TD. This would be one of the all-time great running back seasons ever. It is MY OPINION it is unlikely such a sample plays out over the long term. Nor do I believe KC's management believes it will. Williams never had more than 46 carries in a season, or more than 32 targets in a season, as a Dolphin. I do not believe that we can extrapolate his stats and declare he would produce the same as a lead back. Fresh legs are a factor for back-up running backs. It is entirely possible that all 32 teams' evaluation of Williams has been wrong for five years. However, I'm willing to believe that paid talent evaluators might know more than Internet posters. To reiterate - no one drafted Williams. If he displayed elite RB1 talent as a Dolphin, as an RFA in 2017, zero teams offered him a contract. We must conclude that 31 teams failed to see elite RB1 talent right in front of them. In '18, the Dolphins chose to let elite RB1 talent go rather than match a $1.25 million contract. Likewise, the other 30 teams thought $1.25 million was too stiff to match for an elite RB1 talent. The Chiefs owe Damien Williams $1.73 million. If you think they are expecting 1830 yards, 76 catches and 25 touchdowns, this will be the single greatest contract in NFL history. Damien Williams chose to accept the Chiefs' extension offer without even testing the UFA market. This presents some pretty serious evidence that Damien Williams does NOT believe he is an elite RB1. It's entirely possible that @elroypedro is a superior talent evaluator to NFL scouting departments. I don't think it's likely, however.
  7. Lol no worries, my personal opinion is that YPC gets to be skewed in small sample sizes. My overall point is that we shouldn't expect Williams' production from a five game sample to be the norm. Maybe it will be, but we shouldn't expect it.
  8. Shouldn't have gotten sucked in to this trolling. Here are some football reasons why I have skepticism for Williams. His sample size of games as the lead back is 5 games, 69 carries, 24 targets. His TD rate (8 in 5 games) comes out to 25 per season - wholly unsustainable, given Hunt averaged 16 per 16 games with the Chiefs. His 5.2 YPC in those five games would literally put him on the leaderboard of all time single-season YPC on Pro Football Reference. Not sustainable. He had more than 13 carries in only one of the five games (25 vs. Colts). His yards per catch totaled 8.75 in those five games, compared to Hunt's 14.5 in '18. I would guess the Chiefs would look for improvement in this area. Williams passed the eye test for my uninformed eyes in '18 - he looked like a real RB, showed patience in choosing his holes, looked like a good route runner, etc. However, I don't see how he could continue at the monster pace he was on, and the lack of commitment to his touches in the ground game gives me pause. Count me in the "not sure what to think" camp.
  9. 1. People are wrong because their facts or evidence are insufficient. I'm not right or wrong because "I'm new to this" or "I've been a football fan for 873 years." Please attack the argument, not the person making the argument. 2. If Carlos Hyde is a "cheap veteran" because his cap hit is $2.73 million, with 5 years experience in the league, can you explain how Damien Williams, with a $1.73 million cap hit and 5 years experience in the league, is not also a "cheap veteran" but someone the Chiefs are head-over-heels committed to? Does Williams' dead cap figure of $500,000 for 2020 not give you any pause, especially since you have great knowledge of how contracts work? 3. Can you, again, try to answer the question of why any NFL team, especially a team in its Super Bowl window, would actively add below replacement-level players? Why would any team ever add a below replacement level player, when by definition, a replacement level player is available? That's literally the definition of WAR. 4. Your use of language belies the weakness of your argument. Describing Hyde's 2018 season as "extreme journeyman path" is a convenient way to ignore established facts. In 2018, Hyde was on what amounted to a one-year contract, with no dead cap hit for 2019. Do you understand why the Jaguars might have traded for a running back when their starting running back was lost for the season due to injury? Do you further understand why it might make sense to trade for a player who they had no financial obligation to in 2019, when Fournette will presumably be back? Did the Browns also draft a running back in Chubb who might be a really, really cheap player at that position for four years? This is simple football economics. In fact, it is probably the cause of future labor strife, since veteran players like Hyde are not realizing the big paydays down the road. See the market for Le'Veon Bell. 5. if Hyde was an "extreme journeyman" because he was on a one-year contract in 2018, guess who else was on a one-year contract? Damien Williams! Had it not been for the Kareem Hunt video making its way public, Damien Williams was on pace for a grand total of 4 (FOUR!) (4!!!!!!!!!) carries for the 2018 season. Yet somehow, Carlos Hyde on a one-year contract was actually used by the Browns, and then traded to a team that needed a running back, a team that moved forward by...playing Carlos Hyde at running back, somehow that makes him an extreme journeyman. But Damien Williams, on a one-year contract, on pace for a season of 4 carries, is not labeled as an extreme journeyman? Give me a break! 6. This also would certainly NOT be the definition of "extreme journeyman." Williams was an undrafted free agent signed by the Dolphins. After his third season, he entered restricted free agency, at which time the Dolphins placed the lowest possible level of tender on him. As a restricted free agent, Williams received ZERO contract offers from the other 31 teams in the league. He signed a one-year RFA deal with Miami, who then did not offer him a contract after the '17 season. He signed a one-year deal with the Chiefs in his fifth year in '18. But you're right, the journeyman is the guy drafted in the second round, who played out the entirety of his rookie contract, then signed a one-year deal in his fifth year. Certainly, one-year contracts in a player's fifth year indicates journeyman status - just as long as you aren't Damien Williams. 7. Can you name who a replacement-level running back is? Surely such a player exists, if you are certain that Hyde is a below replacement level? I'll be fascinated to see who this person is. Stop making things up. That would help the discussion.
  10. Why not sign a replacement-level player for cheap?
  11. Simple question: why would the Chiefs willfully move quickly to sign a below-replacement level back, when other RBs were available?
  12. Normally I don't feel the need to respond to trolling, but this is just getting silly. On April 22, @elroypedro wrote: "The ONLY reason for his above post about Carlos Hyde is either to troll this thread, because it has been shown and proven beyond any doubt over and over again in this thread that Hyde is an awful, below replacement level back. Or it is to mislead less informed readers here who haven’t read through the thread." http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/740033-damien-williams-2019-outlook/page/22/?tab=comments#comment-8502033 To review the facts - actual facts - Carlos Hyde was cut by the Jaguars on March 8. On March 9, the Chiefs signed him to a one-year contract. Notably, this took place before free agency opened on March 13, though in fairness we know teams are negotiating with players before the league new year date. The problem with making stuff up is that it's hard to keep all the made-up stuff in line. Are you really going to argue that Carlos Hyde is "an awful, below-replacement level back," while at the same time arguing the Chiefs signed him to be "veteran insurance back-up?" Why on earth would the Chiefs do this? Heck, they had lots to choose from JUST FOUR DAYS LATER when free agency opened. Yet for some reason, the Chiefs moved rapidly to add a truly awful player to their roster. At some point we have to ask ourselves - what exactly are the Chiefs thinking? Then you go on to quote the Chiefs GM: The GM who willingly rushed to sign a player who is truly awful, below replacement level, should now be trusted for his judgment on RBs? That makes no sense at all. By your own standard of evidence, the Hyde signing should call into question the Chiefs' ability to evaluate running backs. Unless it makes sense from a football perspective to chase after "awful, below replacement level" players.
  13. Can't edit my original post, but I'd like to post a reason #7. 7. The Chiefs intentionally signed Hyde and did not sign Yeldon. Maybe there were reasons why they couldn't sign Yeldon, but it seems when they had a choice, at the start of free agency, they chose Hyde. Shouldn't that mean something?
  14. With all due respect, you are cherry-picking statistics and situations without providing any context. Let me be clear, I'm not here to say Carlos Hyde is amazing, or Damien Williams won't start. However, I don't agree the evidence shows Hyde is bad. 1. Matt Breida posted better stats than Carlos Hyde in 2017. But as you note, Hyde was phased out at the end of the season in favor of Breida. Did this take place because Breida was definitively a better player than Carlos Hyde, or because Hyde was a free agent and the 49ers knew they weren't going to resign him? I think we need to make a bit of an adjustment in how we evaluate players that is based not just on fantasy output but also on the realities of the NFL. Most teams are looking to go with RBs on rookie contracts. This is not an indictment of players with more experience, it's simply economics and how the position is valued. 2. Your evaluation that Breida put up better stats than Hyde in 2017 is missing an incredibly crucial piece of evidence you conveniently failed to mention. The 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo. 2017 is not that long ago for us to remember the 49ers offense turned into a bit of a powerhouse with Jimmy G at the helm. Marquise Goodwin was a fantasy darling, even. If you really want to criticize Hyde for failing to produce with CJ Beathard (!!!), and praise Breida for producing with Jimmy G, that's your choice. I will take all the context into account. Again, it doesn't mean that Hyde is better than Breida. But Hyde's environment was clearly impacted by his QB and his contract situation. 3. In the six games Hyde was on the Browns, Chubb had 16 carries and 1 target. I don't think he outproduced Hyde, nor put up a representative sample. Duke Johnson had 19 carries and nothing of note. Duke Johnson is a great receiving back, we already know this. He outproduced Hyde; he also lines up as a WR. What does this prove? 4. Comparing Chubb post-Hyde takes into account Hyde, by definition, didn't get to play in. Situations change - Mayfield might have grown as a QB over time? The Browns offense got better as the season progressed? Even so, it's worth noting Chubb's first six games without Hyde, in four of those games he averaged less than 4 YPC. He exploded in the final quarter of the season. Chubb is probably good. What do the final four games of the Browns season have to do with Hyde? 5. Fournette averaged 3.3 YPC last year. Hyde averaged 3.25 YPC with the Jags. I don't find that to be definitive evidence of much of anything. 6. Yeldon had 21 carries after Fournette was finished for the season. Is that really a sample?
  15. I find a lot of the discussion here about Carlos Hyde to be a bit off. I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction. I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing. Here's the 2017 Rotoworld RB rankings thread, in which Hyde is pretty consistently ranked in the top 10-15 of the entire NFL (for fantasy purposes). In the 2018 thread, no one seems to think he is a bad running back. General consensus ranges seems to be in the "he's fine" category, with a few "greats" sprinkled in. I realize this is not the optimum way to analyze a football player's talent. But I do think it can illustrate recency bias for fantasy perspectives. Hyde's situation was abysmal last year - pre-Mayfield Browns and a Jags team with Bortles that had basically thrown in the towel. I guess we could fault him for not transcending all this. My general point - football players generally don't change overnight. Unless most people here thought Hyde was simply a volume-based back and simply didn't say it, there's a pretty good consensus on these boards that Hyde was a an acceptable NFL running back for fantasy for a number of years. One year spent in the Sahara Desert of the NFL doesn't seem like a reasonable cause to change all those evaluations. On the note of Hyde's pass-catching in 2017, I guess I just have to ask why a team with a presumably-forward thinking coach in Kyle Shanahan would continue to throw the ball to a player who is a historically bad receiver. I understand that the final stats may not look pretty, but this is the equivalent of banging your head against the wall. Hyde finished 5th in targets. Was no one on SF wise enough to his inadequacies? Maybe I'm missing something, but the narrative here doesn't add up for me.
  16. Thanks for the input. So far in the history of the league (this is the fifth year) only the best players when injured have been drafted or kept. Kelvin Benjamin after his first year and Jordy Nelson after his ACL injury. So I think I can probably wait on Henry and scoop him up before the end of the year. I'm willing to take that chance.
  17. Thanks for the input. I'm kind of leaning away from Goff as even in a 12-team league, it's not that hard to find a good QB. Goff was a free agency add for me last year. I'm leaning Meredith at the moment based on upside, but I'm really tempted by Mack as well. Mack might be the highest ceiling/highest risk, but to possibly get the RB in the Colts offense with a healthy Luck, I may not have that chance again in the future.
  18. Yes, 12, not 2. For some reason I can't edit the original post. Thanks for your input.
  19. 2 teams, 17 roster spots (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, D, 8 bench spots), .5 PPR Keeper rules: keep up to four players. Cost is one draft round higher than their draft round the year prior. You can keep a player indefinitely, i.e. through when they are worth a first-round pick. So if you can snag quality players as your 17th round pick, for example, there's a huge advantage. No position limitations on keeping players. My realistic options are as follows, with their 2018 round value: Cooper Kupp (9th round) Marlon Mack (9) Devonta Freeman (12) Hunter Henry (16) (RIP) Juju Smith-Schuster (17) Jared Goff (17) Cam Meredith (17) Mack Hollins (17) Kenneth Dixon (17) Joe Williams/Matt Brieda/Jeremy McNichols (17/13/17) My plan is to go with Kupp, Freeman, and Smith-Schuster as definites. I'm looking at Goff/Meredith/Mack for the final spot.
  20. Not to start a 2018 thread already...but I'm curious what people are thinking about Kupp at this point. Certainly, his numbers fall into that category of rookie numbers of players who go on to have successful careers. I'm not sure if I see him as kind of in that permanent WR2/WR3 group or if he can take the leap to the solid WR2 category with some WR1 weeks mixed in. Just curious what others might be thinking in this regard. I don't doubt the talent, but it seems that with Woods and Gurley there for the near term, there's going to be competition for targets. If Watkins leaves, perhaps that's a benefit if Woods gets the #1 cornerback? But I imagine the Rams would try to keep Watkins there given the role he has had with taking the top off the defense.
  21. I think these are fair criticisms, but both these guys are so young. As a Bears fan watching John Fox mangle Mitchell Trubisky, I think it's fair to consider this year as Goff's true rookie year. Likewise, with Kupp as a rookie, I don't think it's necessarily a negative if his involvement in the offense is by design. He's on pace for 104 targets as a rookie - that number is too high for me to consider it all as being kind of forced in his general direction. Even if it is more forced than not, we see time and again that some rookies can't even handle that - Kupp's involvement in the game plan from day one remains a positive for me. Football outsiders ranks him in the top 17 for all receivers by their Defense Yards Above Replacement stats. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr
  22. Vernon Davis vs. Dallas Hunter Henry vs. Cleveland Appreciate your help.
  23. Yeah, one drop and the fumble. I don't mean to sound like a Cooper fanboy, but I think that Kupp is being a bit unfairly penalized because two of his three drops on the year have been high-profile - the end zone drop on the second-to-last play against Seattle on what would have been a spectacular catch, and the crucial third-down drop this weekend against Minn. For context, Odell Beckham has four drops this year on 41 targets (fewer targets than Kupp). Alshon has two, Julio has three, DeAndre has three (although all on more targets than Kupp. The Football Outsiders stats I posted earlier were eye-opening for me. For a rookie to rate in the top 25 in efficiency and above replacement, he's doing something right.
  24. He caught six passes on seven targets in Week 11 at Minn.
  25. Through Week 10, Football Outsiders ranks Kupp pretty highly. 27th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 23rd in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average 13th in Effective Yards (by average) He also only had 2 drops coming in to Week 11, so now 3 (unless there was another yesterday, but I don't think there was). Quite a few big names on the list with 2 or 3 drops. Given the generally accepted learning curve for rookie WRs, I think overall he remains a really promising player. Redraft, it's going to be spotty (Woods injury notwithstanding) but for keepers/dynasties, I don't think one negative game yesterday should cloud his future all that much.
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