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Everything posted by fawkes_mulder

  1. The MLB has ratified it, though. So it doesn't really matter that it is controversial, for both IRL and fantasy purposes. It does give him an advantage. Hitters have less time to react and his fastball and slider are both already ++.
  2. @taobball Another possibility is that the Padres give him the closer job almost immediately, to showcase him. If he does well, then they trade him for profit at the deadline to a contender.
  3. Yeah we've talked about this some in the closer thread, I think Capps is super appealing in h2h leagues, because by the fantasy playoffs I'm confident that a) he'll be firing on all cylinders and b.) will have the closer job. In a roto league, I think there's more of an opportunity cost.
  4. Carter Capps had the highest perceived velocity in the league in 2015, at over 101 mph. He also has a nice slider to pair with it. Put up an elite line in 2015 before injuring his arm, the spectre for TJS in spring 2016. 1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.84 k/9, 2.03 bb/9 Will be healthy, or close to it, entering 2017 as he'll be 13 months post TJS in April. IMO he is likely to settle in as padres closer at some point in 2017. Queue, arguments about his delivery.
  5. You said it like it hasn't happened since Randy Johnson haha. Alright, you're technically correct. As long as Kershaw is still in his prime though, I'm not betting against it. And if Yu pitches over 200 innings, he's got a shot too. He's already hit 277.
  6. 12:48 Bam: Monte Harrison…future beast or athletic 4th OF? 12:49 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve always been all in on Harrison and it’s absolutely the sort of ship I’m willing to go down with. Beast. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-the-thaw/ Jeffrey Pastronostro, 1/3/17 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30902 big upside guys are the kind of sta
  7. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/luis-robert-leaves-cuba-clock-ticking-new-rules-begin/#K98rSfOijce8ZpHY.97 Nov 21, 2016, translated Cuban article. https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2016-11-21-u58139-pelotero-luis-robert-moiran-habria-abandonado-isla Eric Longenhagen (fangraphs) scouting report, July 1, 2016 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-cuban-ofs-luis-moiran-robert-julio-pablo-martinez/ Longenhagen chat Jan 10, 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-the-tha
  8. Yu's bb/9 in 2016 was the best of his career, I'm not sure what you're talking about. TJS is behind Darvish now. He had surgery March 17, 2015, and didn't rush his return. Came back May 28, 2016, which is 14.5 months. That's more than the year some pitchers get, and closer to the year and half I usually like to see. He had some shoulder discomfort, nothing on the MRI, and then rehabbed and returned strong like he has always been his entire career. He was 100% healthy to close the season and should be 100% healthy in 2017. His fastball velo was some of the best in his c
  9. Rendon is Mexican. But if by "Latin" you mean players that emigrated here from Latin countries and weren't born here, then maybe the Nats are unique.
  10. 1. Eaton 2. Turner 3. Murphy 4. Harper 5. Rendon 6. Werth 7. Zimmerman 8. Norris 9. Pitcher Not so bad, should have tons of RBI opportunities. Werth and Zimm aren't completely useless, could be 750 OPS kinda guys each.
  11. fangraphs is free. I mean, I paid $20 for fangraphs+ a couple years ago just to support the site, but FG+ didn't have any new features. They still have some sort of premium membership, but it's the same deal, no new features, you'd be paying just to support them. Which is totally cool, if you feel generous, it's a great site.
  12. Baseball prospectus is worth the money for minor league coverage. A year ago I think I bought ESPN insider on sale x 3 years, primarily for access to Keith Law's ranks, although that was probably not necessary. Lukewarm recommendation for that. Maybe when I'm a fat cat I'll shell out for Baseball America too (can anyone comment on that?). I also think MLB.tv is worth the money. I like to watch my pitchers pitch, mainly for enjoyment, but I want to see what the stuff looks like. Brooks baseball and fangraphs are great for diving into velo and peripherals, but th
  13. I'm a big fan of Matt Moore, he was figuring stuff out late last year. He was mega hype, #1 prospect, had some success, tore his UCL, rehabbed it, and had some struggles coming back with some more flashes of brilliance. I think this is the year he takes a major step. Also damn i love having pitchers that pitch half their games at At&t, best park in the league by a mile for pitchers.
  14. Too much pessimism itt. Rendon is a guy who will produce in all 5 cats and he'll play every day due to superb defense. ADP in 7th/8th is a big time steal at the moment. This was a guy I saw get drafted in the first round of a dynasty draft in 2015 and I thought it was reasonable. All said and done I don't think 2014 was a career year at all, Rendon's talent is amazing. drip drip drip production everywhere. Set it and forget it.
  15. BABIP is super hard to predict but I think it will be above .300. Apologies if this seems like a lazy comparison, but he reminds me of Carl Crawford on the rays 2004-2010. Not a perfect comparison because crawford struck out less and walked less, but they are similar power/speed players and have a similar gb/fb/ld split. Crawford BABIPs: 2004: .322 2005: .325 2006: .331 2007: .374 2008: .297* (injury shortened year) 2009: .342 2010: .342 Tossing out the low and high from that sample, we're between .322 and .342 with a media
  16. Infield pop-ups are also tracked on FanGraphs (IFFB%), and they are expressed as the percentage of pop-ups a batter hits out of their total number of fly balls. These numbers are generally small and fluctuate from year to year. They’re the worst batted ball type for batters, as they almost always lead to an out. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/batted-ball/
  17. anyone that thinks villar lacks power or is only a slap singles guy who got lucky with some wall scrapers should watch this http://m.mlb.com/video/v1148120983/chcmil-villar-crushes-his-second-dinger-of-the-game/?query=villar
  18. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-is-pitching-to-contact-now/ Prescient article. They weren't lying. Still a great pitcher but the days of mega elite Ks are over. Will still go over 200 easily though and he'll prob continue to go 7 IP on the reg so it's a trade off. I probably prefer Yu Darvish for fantasy though, cause he's still trying to strike the world out. @The Big Bat Theory haha i posted this before i saw your post. impeccable timing.
  19. super interesting guy. wish he had more power.
  20. Final Projection: 155 Games, 660 PA, 94 runs / 27 HR / 109 RBI / 4 SB / .321 / .382 / .519 (.901 OPS) Yes, I'm hype. I think the average comes down from last year but the OBP doesn't go down much because he pushes his walk rate up too.
  21. Where is everyone else with Murph? I was hoping to get some thoughts but this thread has been crickets so far haha. More or less valuable than Jake Arrieta? (I say this as someone who traded Arrieta for Murph + Familia in dynasty, cats in sig). Do people believe? Career BABIP .319 vs. .348. So if regression hits, will it be only marginal and he can still provide good value? Is the HR outburst since the middle of 2015, and especially that postseason, a mirage or a change in the type of player Murphy is? He had a career high FB% of 41.9% last year.
  22. Nido is a guy I previously owned, although it had less to do with faith in him and more about a) the likelihood of D'Arnaud getting injured again and b.) Rene Rivera's limitations with the bat. The problem is that I think Rene Rivera would still get a lot of run in the case of a TDA injury because he's an above average MLB defensive catcher. Not a bad stash though, but I've got Carson Kelly and Andrew Susac as stashes ahead of him personally.
  23. Tough player to pin down. He's always been a solid batter, but starting in the 2015 post-season, he turned in Daniel "the great bambino" Murphy, slashing .345 / .390 / .764 (1.153 OPS) over 64 plate appearances. He also thrived in the 2016 NLDS, slashing .438 / .545. / 438 (.983 OPS) over another 22 plate appearances. His total postseason stats over 2015 and 2016 include 16 runs, 7 HR, 17 RBI, and 3 SB over a total of 86 PA. This is not to mention, of course, the excellent regular season he had in 2016, slashing 88 runs / 25 HR / 104 rbi / 5 sb / .347 /.390
  24. value has increased twice now this offseason. He was buried in arizona, was likely to split time with smith, and is now looking at full time reps. Like him, reminds me of ryon healy, late blooming PCL star, under the radar. Yes PCL is a hitting friendly league but it doesn't mean success is irrelevant. Will be farther under the radar than healy this year, of course.
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