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Fierylady

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Everything posted by Fierylady

  1. Davonta Freeman wasn't a true bell cow under Shanahan and he was still, what, a top 3 RB that year?
  2. I just can’t get over his lack of use in college, but I can admit I don’t know the details. Was he hurt? Was it simply that the Memphis coaches thought Henderson, Pollard and Patrick Taylor deserved more touches? What gives? I know Pollard was lightly used in college as well and he seems to have adjusted to the league pretty well, but he’s more likely to be an outlier, and even he got a lot more run than Gibson. Why wouldn’t the Memphis staff use such an athletic freak more often? He worries me. Kalen Ballage was an athletic freak too.
  3. Kubiak offenses always produce good RBs, and this is for a head coach who wants to run like crazy. And now their defense has improved with the Ngakoue trade, game scripts should be golden. If he plays he should finish as a top five RB. The contract situation is worrisome, admittedly, but the beat writers are insistent he will play, and there’s the off-chance the Vikings decide to run him into the ground then let him go, the way the Cowboys did with Demarco Murray. I guess what I’m saying is that while his floor has lowered of late, so has his ceiling risen. And I prefer this contract situ
  4. Golladay? I think he was 24 coming into the league.
  5. While I agree with this theoretically (don’t panic on McDonald yet), the numbers re: Washington and Moncrief are a little misleading. Washington might have only caught 2 out of 6 but they were almost all on deep routes and only 2 were catchable, maybe 3. Ben straight overthrew him 3 times and Washington had no shot (on one of those - a Ben pick - Collinsworth said Washington should have run a better route but I’m not sure I agree, Ben threw it where he was headed and had to let it go before he knew for sure). Moncrief on the other hand dropped lots of catchable balls and generally shrunk from
  6. There’s only one reason, but it’s a strong one: rookie TEs never do anything in fantasy. Precedent matters. But like you said, so does reacting to what you see. And there are exceptions to every rule. Evan Engram was one himself, though as most would point out that was a unique situation with the rest of the pass-catchers going down with injury. But maybe Hock’s a unique situation too? Maybe he’s just so talented he demands targets? Maybe Stafford already trusts him more than any other Lions pass-catcher? Who knows, but he’s absolutely someone worth keeping an eye on.
  7. Heh, no, of course not. And that’s not what I meant to say, anyway. Every RB gets taken off script, even Bell in this same offense. My point was that once Conner established his fit and usage in this offense he was as reliably used as any other RB in the league, and his fluctuation in carries could be explained by extenuating circumstances. Game script was only a minor one, and he still managed to put up good fantasy games.
  8. This requires a deeper dive to understand (the carry numbers). The KC game in week 2 the Chiefs came out and dog-stomped them, the script got away quick (thankfully he was able to contribute something via his pass-catching, a pleasant surprise). The Tampa and Baltimore game ended with people saying, give the ball to James Conner more, so they did, and from that point forward it looked like Conner was gonna give us a season every bit as good as any of Bell’s. Until the concussion against Carolina. Everyone forgets that one cause he kept playing but it was obvious it bothered him (and it lo
  9. Ty is faster than Kerryon, but he is not more explosive. At the combine his explosion metrics tested as elite; his vert of 40-inches was tied for second-best amongst RBs and his broad jump was 3rd. And that explosion informs his patient running style, where he follows his blockers looking for a hole, then blasts through it when he sees it. I think he’s one of the most talented guys at actually being a running back in the whole league.
  10. He’s about the only Indy player who might still have value despite the Luck retirement. Doyle was good with Brissett two years ago but now there’s more competition at TE, the WRs obviously all take hits. But I think there’s a decent possibility we see some of Bill Simmons’s classic Ewing Theory play out. Literally everyone thinks they’re gonna suck without Luck, it’s not hard to envision the locker room rallying around that. Brissett is unlikely to be the same, bad player he was two years ago, their offensive line is excellent, their defense is much improved, and it’s not like Reich sudde
  11. But see, that’s just it... this is more narrative. Not only is Kerryon not a bad pass-blocking back, from weeks 6-10 last year, PFF gave him a pass-blocking score of 91.1, which was the best in the league (he got hurt week 11). Sure, PFF, grain of salt, but whether he was actually the best in the league or not hardly matters, what matters is that he was very, very good. I will admit that he started slowly - as most rookies do - before improving dramatically, and the Lions beat writers tend to point out when he misses a block in training camp (as they did last year), but then it churns through
  12. This is hopefully going to create value for Kerryon. The only thing affecting his value right now (both positively and negatively) is narrative. CJ’s playing a lot in the preseason, let’s read into that. Ty Johnson catches passes, let’s read into that. O-lineman gets hurt, let’s read into that. In reality, very little has changed. Irrespective of an injury to one of his o-lineman, his floor was always low. When his price skyrocketed I missed him everywhere, it was based on a false narrative, hollered by pundits. That low floor is being hammered of late, no reason to go into it, excep
  13. I have 100% ownership of Darwin Thompson in best ball, most of the time getting him in the last round or three. I expect that to change from here on out. In fact I’ve already missed him in one of my slow drafts that hasn’t finished yet. He went in the 5th.
  14. We should also remember that things can change drastically from one year to the next at OL. The Colts were a historically bad offensive line before last season, then they skipped right over average-good-great to become dominant. Two years ago the Rams had a meh line that made Gurley look like crap, then they turned it around instantly. You can point to some factors as to why this happens - new players, new coaches, new scheme, etc... - but that doesn’t always work either (the Lions have invested heavily on the o-line and changed coaches too and it has yet to really pan out).
  15. That’s fair to say about DJ’s season last year, but in 2016 he was RB1 behind another terrible line... which is why everyone was so confident drafting him last year. They thought with his receiving ability he could overcome his bad line a second time. He didn’t.
  16. There’s an outcome for him out there as a WR1. He’s got that kind of talent, reminds me quite a bit of Hopkins - not as elite with his hands but plenty good enough and and probably a slightly better athlete. The question then becomes what is this Detroit offense gonna look like, and I’m shocked that everyone’s so certain what it’s gonna be even though we haven’t seen it yet, or heard any specific from the coaches. Patricia said ‘we want to be able to run the ball’, and over two months of rehash that’s turned into ‘Detroit is a run-only team.’ I for one am not so certain.
  17. Yup. I have a rule that I don’t take RBs a year off ACL injuries. They’ll be in and out of the lineup with hamstring issues all year, like Cook last year (and Guice has already had one in camp), and most guys don’t fully heal for a couple of years anyway. Sure it’s cost me a guy like Peterson now and again, but it’s served me well for the most part.
  18. Exactly, it’s a simple issue of supply and demand. As the number of QBs who throw 30+ TDs has gone up so too has the number of viable starters. Whether it’s a 6 point league or a 4 point league, the supply doesn’t waver which is why I will still wait in my 6 point leagues. It’s essentially the opposite of TE where the demand is the same but the supply is so low, it makes the guys at the top even more valuable. If there were 20 viable starting TEs too, none would go before round 5 or 6.
  19. You keep saying the Broncos’ line was ranked third last year and unlikely to improve, but when you mention they also have an oft-injured guard and a bust of a tackle... doesn’t that make it seem like there’s a pretty obvious route to improve?
  20. Don’t forget nine months before Conner tested at the combine he was laid up in a bed getting surgery and chemo. That poison takes a long time to get fully out of your system, and when I watch Conner I don’t see a guy who tested like that. Also, he lost weight and got in better shape prior to his second (breakout) season, so like we did with Bell, we might be watching an improved athlete (https://247sports.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/Article/LOOK-Pittsburgh-Steelers-James-Conner-shows-off-his-new-body-119553257/ ). But in the end we’re just seeing different things when we watch him. I thin
  21. I like the look of Rudolph quite a bit. It was smart of them to try and draft a replacement early, since as you say it’s so important to their scheme. I wouldn’t go predicting he’ll be the next Ben, but I like what I’ve seen this offseason. Liked him in college too.
  22. It’s hard to know who’s gonna get the targets in this offense. The Tech offense ran so many plays it almost didn’t matter who got the most target share - there was enough to go around for all of them. While I expect the Cardinals to run more plays than any other team except maybe Baltimore, it won’t be enough to support nearly as many viable receivers. That’s why I’d been staying away from Johnson. After Fitz, Kirk and DJ, it didn’t feel like there was enough to go around between Johnson, Isabella and Butler. Butler’s injury helps, but I still think it’s going to be difficult to find consisten
  23. To me the problem in Tampa is their line. It’s one of the worst run-blocking lines in history and the Bucs did exactly f--- all to fix it. They’re a surprisingly decent pass-blocking line, so I expect the numbers to be Packers-esque in their skew towards the pass. I think I’ll avoid the TB backfield at all costs.
  24. You’re certainly not alone in thinking this but I disagree with it vehemently. I think he looked like a ******** stud the first half of the season (RB3 overall!), then he got the concussion and the high ankle sprain and tried to play through them both but was a shell of himself, and that seems to be what everyone remembers. But he’s got surprisingly great hands, he’s tough as nails (he beat cancer ffs), he always gets extra yards. And he’s got that dogged, Peterson-style aggression when he runs, I love to watch it, and that’s been the chief trait of a lot of elite RBs (Peterson, Campbell, Payt
  25. Yeah personally I think jettisoning Bell and AB was the smartest thing they did. If they’d kept those guys then maybe you could say they were on a decline. Everyone saw how their drama affected the Steelers last year, no way should that team have missed the playoffs. Their WR corps has certainly lost some talent but if Washington comes good the way most Steeler receivers do they should be fine, and they’ve upgraded at TE, IMO, McDonald is the most gifted, from a sheer talent perspective, of any TE Ben’s ever played with. The line is the same and coached by a protege of Munchak, and I thin
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