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Everything posted by Jaw1

  1. Yeah, I don't have a definitive answer to that. His rookie year TyMont was top of the depth chart and Packers used him a TON before he got injured. Jamaal Williams was #2 on the depth chart and the slightly higher draft capital but he quickly got injured opening door for Jones who looked really good then sprained one MCL came back a few games later and sprained his other MCL (that was like week 16 so effectively ended his season). Then last year he opened the season on a 2-game suspension (stemming from a Marijuana-related arrest; idk the full details but while certainly not a positive doesn't
  2. Incomplete data, I'd assume Hill may not have taken place in the combine drills they use to derive that metric. Those numbers shouldn't be taken as gospel just as a rough barometer that allows you to compare the relative athletic profile of different players. I think its helpful in finding breakout candidates (like it has helped put guys like George Kittle who I didn't know about coming out of college on to my radar) since generally the more athletic a player is the higher their "upside". Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule, athleticism is only 1 aspect of football and particularly at
  3. I admitted LaMichael James wasn't a great comp it was more so to just prove a general point. I don't think anyone is questioning Justice Hill's athletic ability which is all burst score is a measure of (specifically I think their vertical and broad jump), he is undoubtedly a special athlete even by NFL standards. This gives him a very high upside and nobody thought Kamara would be half the player he turned out to be his rookie year but that's an awfully high standard to reach. Bench and squat numbers while measures of strength don't really mirror anything RBs do on a consistent basis. His
  4. Didn't see him play but given the numbers (even though its pre-season and week 4 of preseason at that where its mostly guys who are on roster bubble playing), price, his history and Pats being a fairly decent fantasy situation definitely worth a stab in some leagues. For those who watched some of the game or saw him play how did he look? I can't get over how bad and old he looked last year with Broncos so I thought an achilles would be pretty much the end of his career at least as a relevant WR.
  5. I'm not clairvoyant so I'm not willing to talk in certainties but Cook definitely seems at heightened injury risk which in addition to Mattison's talent and the Viking's offense definitely makes Mattison an attractive add and stash. It isn't difficult to envision a situation where Cook gets injured and Mattison takes over. I do think it'll take an injury for Mattison to do that however, I don't see him outplaying or carving out significant value with Cook healthy. I guess not far removed from Murray and McKinnon both being relevant but idk if I necessarily see that type of partnership arising
  6. My comment there was a bit tongue-in cheek. Like I admitted, Jamaal Charles is probably a more apt comparison than Reggie Bush. The player comps seem quite algorithmic and scientific, have you seen Kelvin Benjamin's comp? /s. Yes, in the strictest sense and if people are being reasonable. However, people often act irrationally especially if it conforms with their preconceived notions. I think a more balanced approach would to show not only a successful player with a similar athletic profile as Justice Hill like Jamaal Charles which represents the upside available but also a play
  7. You cut out the part where it says Justice Hill's best comparable is Reggie Bush 😉. Reggie Bush's best comparable is Jamaal Charles though so it's kind of trivial. This is strictly a physical, athletic comparison and says nothing about their football ability however, so its a little disingenuous (you picked two great athletes that also were great football players) especially since there are countless combine heroes who have amounted to nothing. I don't deny Justice Hill is in impressive athletic tier, that's part of what makes him an attractive option but great athlete doesn't directly transl
  8. I don't think Justice Hill is real lead back material especially in today's NFL where even guys who probably have the ability to play all 3 downs no longer are to keep them fresh, healthy, and to get a specialist in for them in certain situations. Reggie Bush has been the popular comparison but I think its quite generous as Reggie Bush was a generational talent and while Hill's a similar tiered athlete with that track speed I don't think he is nearly the same caliber football player Reggie Bush was coming out of college and looking at the tape he doesn't use that athleticism as effectively as
  9. We've heard this story before. It's frustrating for A.Jones' fantasy stock that he's effectively back to square 1 but I think he's the much better talent than Williams and given the offense and his high ypc he doesn't need to be a 20+ carry per game 3 down workhorse to be valuable. In fact you don't even really want him to be that guy given his health history. I think if you look at the tape it's night and day between Jamaal and Jones. His only "saving grace" was his pass blocking chops and I think that was even exaggerated especially relative to Jones who I think at least at one point was gra
  10. I can't deny Edwards played very well once Lamar Jackson took over however, bringing in Ingram and spending a 4th rounder on Hill doesn't appear on the surface to be exactly a vote of confidence in him. I also, don't think he's more talented than the 2 backs they brought in and his production was very much a product of the scheme/playcalling and probably in part because teams (like I'm probably guilty of right now) underestimating him and focusing on the more headline catching LJax. Ravens were definitely an extremely run-heavy side last season and I expect them to be among the league leaders
  11. I think you make some solid points in the rest of your post however, that's looking at what they did last year. The picks they invested into Brown, Boykins and Hill seems an awful lot to invest (especially all 3 in same draft) for what would amount to luxury players which is sort of the way I interpret your stance on these guys from the above sentence. I think it might show a signal intent of what they want to remake the offense to be more of for this season (and the future). Logically it seems arguably more plausible that while what they did last year worked they felt it wasn't really s
  12. I agree its tough to gauge and I think a convincing argument could be made for any of these guys to be first and for some drop them out of the group entirely. Aaron Jones: I think he has one of the higher upsides of the group given his talent and him looking very much like a RB1 when Packers finally seemed to trust him after dealing away Ty Mont. This is in a year where Rodgers didn't really look himself as he was hobbling around on one leg so with a healthy Rodgers and the offense fully humming the value is really there as it typically has for whomever happens to be Rodger's RB
  13. The upside definitely isn't great but the risk is extremely low because he's probably free (in fact I may not even consider him except for deeper leagues since his upside does seem fairly bleak). He doesn't seem like any sort of special talent but it doesn't take much to look better than Barber last year and the hope he gets dump off passes underneath is probably more attractive than any potential carries. Arian's squeezed some decent numbers out of Ellington so maybe there is an outside shot he can do similar with this dude.
  14. This sounds like Dolphins wanting to offload him and doesn't necessarily indicate Texans have any interest in acquiring him. I mean at a high level he is a RB and they lost Miller who was a RB so it could make sense at that really high level but Duke Johnson and Drake profile as roughly similar RBs. You would figure they'd want more of an early down power back to get those tough short yards (and they sure are tough with that o-line) to complement Duke but for the right price maybe Houston thinks Duke and Drake together can be dynamic enough elsewhere to make up for that. I guess Miller wasn't
  15. The way I see it Mattison will struggle to carve out top 40 RB value while Cook is healthy (I think Cook is the more talented runner and receiver and Mattison struggled to break big plays in college so he likely won't be too productive w/o decent volume) and very slim odds to straight up jump him on the depth chart. However, given that I think he's a solid RB who can do a little bit of everything and the Vikings are higher-end offense I think he could be a RB2 if Cook gets hurt. However, when Cook gets healthy again I think it minimally turns in to a RBBC likely with majority of touches going
  16. There are so many more impactful changes year to year that impact a player's fantasy performance more than whatever slight psychological uptick brought on by the knowledge of an impending "contract year". I see no way to filter out the "noise" or have some means of comparison that isolates out a ton of other variables that probably have a more meaninful impact. Regardless if a single player is more motivated and comes into the season in better shape than normal that in no way directly correlates to higher level of fantasy production since there are a lot more important factors than a single pl
  17. https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-ole-miss-chad-kelly-storms-the-field-during-brawl-at-high-school-game/ Video is pretty crappy but I thought the writer of this article sums it up fairly nicely with:
  18. The list of off the field stuff is longer than that and yeah he's suspended the first 2 games of this season. The fact he's on the Colts roster means that they are willing to give him a chance and look past the off the field issues (I'm not sure if they knew about Luck's potential retirement when they signed him, if not in a way it shows they have a little more faith in him cause the gamble was less worthwhile/necessary). The arm talent and pedigree seems to be there: he's Jim Kelly's nephew, was a top 5 QB recruit out of high school and threw for over 4k yards in the SEC as a red-shirt j
  19. That's true but not many fantasy leagues reward pass blocking. It's a dart throw and a pretty lazy one that doesn't think much deeper than Texans are down their previous starter and Ajayi is one of the best rushers that's currently a FA. He can be had at a pretty low cost, possibly free so I don't see the point in nitpicking proactively adding him if you have the roster spot to spare. Sure a lot of things can happen in the next few days but worse case you drop him and pickup another dart throw.
  20. Larry Fitz should be the ideal not the standard. He's almost 36 and probably outworks and takes care of his body better than 99% of WRs in the NFL. Regardless, one look at Gordon's body and there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him physically; emotionally/mentally/psychologically are where his problems lie (and have lied for the majority of his life but he is still one of the most physically gifted WRs in the NFL). He took 3 years off and his 5 games in 2017 were better than his 5 games in 2014 before he got suspended indefinitely. With a mid-season trade he was on pace for almost 100 t
  21. Really surprising no thread yet. Gordon's reinstatement significantly dents his value in redraft as Gordon now projects to slot in that WR2 role alongside Edelman that was previously up for grabs. However, as much as I'd love Gordon to have finally overcome his demons it obviously wouldn't surprise anyone if he has his off the field struggles once again. Patriots offense in general seems to be going more run-focused and even without Gronk, Edelman is the clear number 1 and Gordon should command 6+ targets to game while he's playing, White is still going to be a significant safety valve as well
  22. True but you could apply that same logic to Ajayi not being signed yet even though he seemed to have been medically cleared like a month ago. I guess you could argue he was waiting for something like this to happen that would give him a better chance at a potential starting spot and it is almost inevitable someone would lose their starter early in the season. Definitely not a bad lottery ticket as he's probably available for free in most leagues but I'm kind of surprised I haven't heard more talk about him over past month and kind of leads me to believe teams may have concern about his current
  23. He seems like a poor man's Kerryon Johnson (he's faster in a straight-line but doesn't seem to have explosiveness of Kerryon) and as a result I'm not sure he sees the field while Kerryon is healthy outside of kick returns where he is probably one of Lion's top options. Not sure how much Lion's will increase KJs workload in year 2 (I think he was very promising in year 1 with what he got but at his size he likely can't last 16 games getting 15+ touches per game) but I assume CJ Anderson will soak up most of those carries as a bigger body back (with Zenner also in that more power runner mold).
  24. I had him in that potential RB1 tier/ high-end RB2 tier with guys like Aaron Jones and Damien Williams but w/o Luck his upside takes a significant hit. Still should see plenty of touches to be a solid RB2 but he'll no doubt find less space and scoring opportunities without Luck. Seems like a lot of people are overreacting, might be a decent buy-low opportunity as some owners think the sky is falling.
  25. Yeah I was admittedly one who thought he could potentially wrestle majority of touches from Williams but given how the summer's played out it becomes much more difficult to give this guy the benefit of the doubt. Call me a sucker but in most leagues I'd still probably grab him if I could for free just in case he lands in Houston as it would represent a significant boost in his perceived value. Admittedly, I think it sounds much better than it would actually be (Houston's O-line is bad) but my hope would be to flip him for a little something. If he doesn't find a more attractive spot withi
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