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Airball B

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Double-A (3/11)



  1. If 3 pt and stl can be 1.5 instead of 1.1, he could be viable late. However, that does not seem like a sure thing, at all. Fox's post all-star break numbers were 29 mins per game where he still averaged less than 1 for each of those two categories, even though other stats improved with minutes. That's not very encouraging.
  2. Likely going back to 14.5 shot attempts and 18 pts with same everything else.
  3. I have estimated as low as 6 rbs 6 ast with other stats largely unchanged. I feel the likelihood is actually decent that he will end up better than that...6 rbs especially seems very conservative. At this low estimate I would still happily take him in the 4th round if available because the stocks are too elite.
  4. It's probably unrealistic to expect more than simply getting back to 2016 form. That was a 2.5 3pt, 45%, 18 pts campaign with pretty mediocre SG stats on everything else. That's a top 70 finish. Therefore if he gets those stats, you feel okay about using a 7th round pick. There's just not much upside. I would consider Tim Hardaway or Tyreke Evans for similar stat profile and take the cheapest. Guys like Will Barton and Josh Richardson are actually in the top 65 even if they just maintain the same level of performance.
  5. Last season he went from a career 35%, 3 attempts per game kind of three point shooter to a hugely improved 40%, 5 attempts per game guy. This tends not to be a fluctuating skill. So expect the improvement to last and him to do the same. His play making and points (both career highs) might take a slight hit from competition, but the 4th round is an excellent position to take Tobias Harris. High efficiency and low turnover playing style is very fantasy friendly.
  6. Points should hover around 12 and blocks around 2. Likely rebound output is high 7. Very optimistic estimate could be low 10 but I would be surprised. That's a difference between 7th round and 5th round value. Would take him and John Collins over guys like Ibaka and Julius Randle. Using a 7th round or later pick would be pretty good value. I think these guys are going to be hyped enough by September to where people are just going to reach in the 5th round though.
  7. It was only 3 years ago when he was mostly a slasher whose poor outside shooting, high turnovers, and injury issues perennially pushed his fantasy appeal down the toilet. But last season seemed like a real transformation, not a fluke. Sure, the raw numbers were inflated from the Grizzlies having so little talent. But with a more controlled playing style and hugely improved outside shooting, Evans can provide good value in just 27 minutes a game next season. Not too crazy estimate: 45%, 1.7 3pt, 15.5 pts, 4.5 rbs, 4.7 ast, 1.1 stl, .3 blk, 2.2 to. That's top 75. He's going to likely be available even a couple rounds after that, so I expect to end up drafting Tyreke here and there. I will take him over guys like Dennis Smith, Wiggins, Schroder, or even Dragic relative to their likely draft positions. Of course, if something unforeseen happens in Indiana, and Evans ends up getting 30+ minutes, then we're talking about top 60 or better. I would just note that as a potential plus, wouldn't project based on that.
  8. Absolutely agree it cannot be overstated how much his awful lack of defensive stats impacts his fantasy value. Only around top 80-90 even when averaging 16 pts, 9 rbs, 3 ast. Has now played four seasons, really cannot expect sudden and significant improvement in his defense. Reminds me of Z-Bo and Carlos Boozer--good real life player, deceptively bad for fantasy.
  9. For the last 30 games or so in the 2016-17 season KAT got up to 28 pts per game. I think that would be a good projection for where he'll be if either Jimmy Butler or Wiggins is out of the picture and KAT once again gets 18+ field goal attempts. That would boost his value to maybe 3-5 rather than 5-8. For a player who has been so consistent and doesn't seem to force things it's hard to see his blocks suddenly taking a leap to 2 per game. It can happen...but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. But let's say that this does happen--then he will be the clear 2nd best C ahead of Jokic, but still not as good as AD.
  10. Drummond started last season with just incredible improvements in free throw shooting and play making. The AST improvements was sadly drastically cut back after the Griffin trade, but he still returned top 20 value. He's good enough to be taken in 2nd round if you are punting ft, which like some others have pointed out, you might not want to do anymore since he's gotten so much better. Expect Pistons to once again run the ball through Blake Griffin, but Drummond might take a three pointer here and there and I really don't mind that. He's not getting Marc Gasol kind of strokes over one summer but if he can do 31% and attempt less than 2 per game (basically Giannis level), then it will help slightly more than it hurts. Unfortunately, while he was often available in the 4th round at draft last season, I expect him to be projected into late 2nd, early 3rd round even by casual fantasy players and pretty much will no longer be a great value play. As far as C's go I have AD at the top, then KAT/Jokic. At the next level are Embiid/Drummond.
  11. Murray's scoring ability is elite. He will probably always be a sub 1.2 stl, sub 5.5 ast kind player, but if he had been playing on a team with less firepower he could probably be expected to produce Devin Booker like stats at this point, which would be 4-5th round value. All those offensively capable teammates are just too much. I expect him to improve, but upside is limited by situation.
  12. Not high on Valanciunas. After six seasons of averaging roughly 26 mp you have to think it's not just the coach. Jonas has shown a pretty slumbering motor for the NBA, especially on the defensive end. If you look beyond his seemingly great efficiencies, you have to see that he has some of the absolute worst AST and STL numbers among all players. He also doesn't attempt enough FT for his excellent ft% to matter much. People see under 1 AST and STL and don't think twice about it because these numbers are typically low for C's anyway. But if you adjust the numbers into percentiles among all players it reveals Valanciunas to be truly awful especially for H2H, where he has been outside the top 100 on a yearly basis. During his strong run late last season, that improved enough to crack the top 80. In H2H I would place him as only slightly better than someone like Derick Favors or Taj Gibson.
  13. The long-term prospect is quite exciting with JJJ but it's safe to assume that he'll have to slowly develop offensively in the next year or two. Sure he can knock down some threes, but anything more than about 7.5 fga would be a bit unrealistic. So what he'll end up with offensively should be more like 10 PTS, 0.5 3PT. We might want to gamble on pleasant surprise of say, 0.7 STL and 2 BLK (aggressive). Now that would make him top 100. This makes him a late round flyer, a couple rungs below "breakout candidates". So if he's available very late in draft, I would take him and see what happens. Certainly over low upside guys like Valanciunas or Taj Gibson. But I would prefer Jordan Bell over JJJ for sure.
  14. I am currently projecting top 65. Top 50 seems a little aggressive--why not simply take someone predictably productive like Kevin Love/Blake Griffin/Vucevic at the turn of 4-5th round? It does seem like he'll get around 30 mp and possibly 1 3PT. Collins can finish in the pick and roll extremely well and got better as a passer as his rookie season progressed. So I would project a fairly high floor and would be comfortable to spend a 7th round pick to get him. I would favor Myles Turner just a tiny bit more if they are both available. It seems safe to assume that Turner would be picked first in most drafts though.
  15. He will be sporting 4th round talent with 6-7th round output unfortunately due to Boston's stacked roster. He should once again get just around 30 mp and 12 fga. Even with a healthy Hayward, Tatum is likely to improve in every category slightly. Best-case scenario has some unforeseen change effecting the roster and Tatum ends up getting massive minutes (33+) and shot attempts (~15), where he should comfortably return top 50 value. What that means is that it's quite a gamble to spend anything earlier than a 6th round pick to get him. In the 5th round it would probably be more sensible to take someone with predictably high floor like DeRozan or Garry Harris, where you would be happy if they simply perform to par.
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