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Posts posted by AF25


    Sounds like Tejay will be given a versatile role in the Reds bullpen; with his SP eligibility and able to potentially rack up W, HLD, and some SV; he can be really valuable! 

    “There may be nights that Tejay pitches in that (multi-inning) role,” Bell said. “There might be a night he comes in and gets a big out in the seventh or eighth. There might be another night he closes. He’s such a good pitcher and so important to us, given his availability on a given night, it could be different.” 


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  2. 10 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

    He got lit up after batters saw him once.  Interesting player tho

    While I agree that generally speaking, his stats have gone south after the 1st round of PA through; he did have 3 decent outings out of 5 of 3+ IP last year. He's been working on the spin efficiency of his fast ball this past offseason and is said to have started to incorporate it during spring training, pitching right down the middle and is getting more swings and misses than he did last year.

    So I supposed there is hope.


  3. 5 hours ago, UberRebel said:

    please never mention this guy’s name out loud on these boards again. Ssssshhhhh!

    Dude... I think the word is already out on this guy and there is a specific thread on him as well...... BTW. I think your post brought more attention than mine did, after all, you did get a like from SwayzeExpress.... 😁😂😉

    Too Late GIFs | Tenor

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  4. 3 hours ago, beauso79 said:

    I imagine he would need another pitch to be successful as a starter 


    1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

    He's working on a changeup.

    Peralta threw three above average type of pitches last season - FB, CV, and SL; all pitches resulted in below 90 exit velocity. Peralta's four-seamer was a Money Pitch in 2020 with a 44% zone rate, 47.3% swing rate and 17.3% SwStr%. His curve was pretty solid and has an outstanding 76.7 exit velocity and 54.3% whiff %. The added slider, while did not use much (8 PA only last year), resulted with zero base hit and 3K; the EV was pretty solid at 84.9.

    Per this article behind the pay wall at The Athletic:  “I don't know if it's going to be soon or this season,” Peralta said, “but I've been working on the change-up really hard."


    He actually had a change-up before last season but the spin rate was not good (below 2,000) and exit velocity at 94.5 and 90 in 2019 and 2018 respectively. If he can find a way to refine his change-up (his change-up spin rate did improve in '19 to 1966 from 1704 in '18; this for sure give all of us owners some hope for optimism that he can eventually become a very solid SP.

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  5. 4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

    His OBP was .358 last season so he doesn't hurt you in OBP leagues as opposed to BA leagues.

    Can't believe I missed the OBP part of his game! While he averaged 8.8% in the majors so far, his avg minor league BB% was a solid 10%. The more I think and talk about this guy, the more I like about him!

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  6. 2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

    The thing is no one should be drafting him for average. He has a lot of positional flexibility and with a bad average can still give you 15 HR and 20 SB. For someone that's eligible at SS, 2B, OF (and 3B on Yahoo), if he hits something like .220 with the aforementioned 15 HR and 20 SB (which is in line with the projection systems), he should provide value at his current price point. He has 17 HR and 23 SB in 441 career plate appearances in the MLB, so its not like the production came from just last year.

    While I also think his best contributions would be his power/speed combo as well as his multi-positional eligibility; I don't believe his BA will hurt you.  Moore spent the '19/'20 offseason refining his swing consistency and shortening up his approach to stay more direct to the ball and limit his previous swing-and-miss tendency; the result was less K% than his rookie year. If we are looking at minor league stats for any indications, Moore had an avg. of 18.3% K rate and a .259 BA across entire minor league career. With this new approach which resulted in a 89 percentile on his barrel %, I would expect a BA between .250-.265. I'd say not too shabby!

  7. Here are my personal favorite; based on their valuable ratios and opportunities for high leverage innings:

    Devin Williams
    Jake Diekman
    Tyler Duffey
    Tanner Rainey
    Evan Marshall
    Emilio Pagán
    A.J. Minter
    Josh Staumont
    Pete Fairbanks
    Rafael Dolis






    I've also included with my top 5 RP with SP eligibility:


    Drew Pomeranz
    Diego Castillo
    Lucas Sims
    Chad Green
    Freddy Peralta
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  8. On 3/3/2021 at 10:58 AM, brockpapersizer said:

    That response was honestly one of the most entertaining posts I've read in a while.

    Cespedes could be good, in no way am I writing off a prospects career, ever. He's still quite young Just not for me.  If it's a deep league and there's a low acquisition cost, it's fine.  If he's as good as his brother and coming into the league earlier, that's a really good player to have on a team.  In a 2nd or 3rd round of a FYPD, I'd probably find someone I like a little more.

    To piggyback what you said Brock, I am in a dynasty league with 8 rounds and he was not even being picked. I think the whole fantasy world as a whole are down on him. TBH, I did not spend much time doing research on him for the primary reason you stated previously - age. But based on what I have read, Cespedes has a tendency to swing at bad off speed pitches. His inability to hit them and lay off of them is something he is going to need to work on; whether he has time to do it before he start getting into his prime years, that's another story.

  9. Didn't find a thread on him; so will create one here.

    Mostly undervalued due to small sample size in 2020; his average ADP is right outside of 100, which may be a bit higher than one would like for someone without a longer track record. 

    I found this article (https://www.pitcherlist.com/dylan-moore-tangled-up-in-blue/), which was written in August of last year, details on the swing mechanic change Moore had to go through in his first year in major league (2019) and how that change and the new approach have started to show results in 2020. 

    While there are concerns that Moore "could be" a fast ball only hitter; the in-zone swing rates shows that he's being more selective in 2020 on what to swing as the article indicates.


    What does this mean? Moore is looking for his pitch and doing his best to lay off when it’s not what he’s looking for–even if it’s a strike. This approach is common among some of the best hitters in the game and has become more popular with the swing reinventions that came with the fly-ball revolution. Look for your pitch and give your “A-swing” when you get it–or at least when you think you’re getting it.

    Overall, I think that Moore is a calculated risk investment whom I would likely pick him at around his avg. ADP; I mean the new approach and the new swing resulted in drop in K%, but increased in hard hit % and EV which indicates sustainable power; the barrel % has also seen a significant increase.


    Only thing that I would disagree with the article is the SB total; it indicates that he's a 10-15 SB range runner; I couldn't find his sprint speed but a 71% ranking on sprint speed and based on his minor league data, I would think a 20+ SB is not out of the question.



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  10. 9 hours ago, Fielder1831 said:

    Atl interests me as well. I am gonna be watching that bullpen close

    Braves manager Brian Snitker stated Thursday that the team may use "2-3 guys to close." 

    Snitker added that he has "every confidence in the world" that Will Smith could handle the job. Smith has been the perceived favorite to land the closer role in Atlanta after Mark Melancon signed with the Padres this past week. The 31-year-old southpaw struggled in 16 innings last season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 7.33 FIP, but he did convert 34 saves for the Giants in 2019. Smith will presumably compete for ninth-inning duties in Atlanta with Chris Martin and A.J. Minter, among others.

    Very conflicting comments on the ATL closer situation. At one point, Snit stated they may use closer by committee and then he has all the confidence in the world that Smith can handle the job; though his old school approach tells me he's going with one closer eventually.

    Having one closer helps us and himself too as I don't think Snit know how to handle the bullpen as good as him handling drums...  


    See the source image



  11. For a moment I thought my time machine worked and took me back to 2011! I would have told myself back then to pick Trevor Story and Bichette Jr..

    Anyways, back to Bell, can't believe he was just drafted in 2011; it seems like he's been in the league forever. My biggest concern as @Cdub2k pointed out with Bell is the fact that Manfraud is at it again and want to manipulate the game by alter the baseball (again!). 

    Bell's average home run distance in 2020 was 405 feet versus 411 in 2019. While the average distance was not a huge drop, his max home run distance was 474 feet in 2019, while in 2020, that number fell to 428 feet. 

    Bell's EV dropped to 91.7 from a career high of 92.4 and somehow he had one of the lowest, if not the lowest LA of his carrier at 5.9. 


    Agreed that the roto champ projection is fair; I have a hard time thinking he will hit more than 25 HR.


  12. Not sure the threshold of average HR distance to go with to determine which players will mostly be affected and obviously this depends on many variables like spread of HR location for each player, the ballpark the said player plays in... etc.. But someone mentioned an article the suggested a 5% reduction in HR; so using 400 ft. as the threshold for HR (I know left and right field walls are shorter);  But here is the data of average HR distance by player: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard. So can we say that anyone with an average HR distance of 380 or below will mostly get effected?

  13. On 1/31/2021 at 3:28 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

    Sort of unreal to see him left off the Klaw and Pipeline top 100s from last week.

    I would (obv) suspect the bat first profile is dragging him, but I still think this kid is gonna really good and a massive riser candidate as he gets acclimated in lower levels.

    I think your post almost a year ago sums up why; "he also hasn’t faced good enough competition yet to prove he’s in their class". I agree with you with Marte's skillset, he is going to be huge in fantasy. Eric Longenhagen has high praise on him; even though he currently has a 45+ FV, Longenhagen puts Marte on the same tier Zac Veen, his highest ranked prep amateur at the time when he wrote about Marte (March of last year). 

  14. 6 hours ago, Shamrocks said:

    Tellez is the guy who should be able to put it all together, hes always had the better eye, looking at 80BB/130K as opposed to 50BB/180K for Dalbec and Walsh (theres no way Jared K's <15% of his ABs like last year) hes younger and on a better team. I feel like hes a guy you could get late in a draft whereas you will have to pay a premium for Walsh and maybe for Dalbec. I agree with you on Tellez but so hard to predict for dynasty purposes what happens 2 years from now...Id imagine Walsh is on a VERY short leash especially given the Pujols retirement tour and the need to play Ohtani


    So...Id rather have Walsh>Dalbec>Tellez based upon what i think their true ceilings are, but probably Tellez>Walsh>Dalbec based upon what I think they will actually do

    Interesting take; totally agree on the K, Dalbec K's a lot; but he seems to have the best power upside of all and I'd have thought Dalbec has the better eye as he would average 70BB in 162 games whereas Tellez averaged 40BB in 162 games. After looking closer at Dalbec's K's per 162, I changed my mind; he is more of last resort of the 3, I mean 275 K per 162 is CRAZY HIGH; for some reason I thought he had 150K per 162 games. So the BA range I predicted previously would be the best scenario! I had him #1 because of his ceiling/age.

    While Pujols is on the retirement tour, Angels are still aiming to compete, so I don't think they will let Pujols starts a lot of games; but no matter what, he will still cut into Walsh's playing time.




  15. Hey Guys,

    Would like to get your thoughts on who would you rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd from a dynasty league perspective and why?

    To me I would have ranked Dalbec first, Walsh second and Tellez third. All three have great power and great BB; The biggest challenge for Tellez is playing time; it seems he is destined for platoon role at the very least in 2021. I like Dalbec and his elite power as well as his elite obp; only knock on him is whether he can adjust to MLB pitching in his sophomore year; he has the least hit tool out of the three, likely looking at .250-.275 hitter, IMHO. Walsh, a late bloomer, did great in 2020; all indication is that he should be a fine 1B.



  16. Moncada is one of my favorite players too; I drafted him first overall by giving up quite a bit of value to trade for that pick!

    His early mocks ADP is around mid 7th round; I think that's a bit too low and certainly undervalued. I could be wrong, but I would have picked him in the 5th round based on the 2019 stats and believing that 2020 is an exception and that he's recovered from C-19.

    Outside of whether he has recovered from the fatigue due to C-19, I think a lot has to do with how La Russa harmonizes with the young players; also will he be more inclined to the running game? 

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