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AF25

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Posts posted by AF25

  1. [Removed Cool Story]

    Barnes is a very inconsistent player and so far, only one good year to show for in his MLB career; albeit, the first two years were SSS. One thing for sure though, in leagues with OBP, he can be serviceable as he has consistently shown that he is willing to take walks; what's going to determine his season from serviceable to decent or solid is his K% and of course a bit of luck (BABIP). Four years in the major and the K% goes from above avg. in one year to below average or poor in the next; again, very inconsistent and the projections around the industry are not kind to him as shown below. 

    Personally, I feel he is more of a .250BA +/- /.350OBP + hitter and if he can have enough AB, 300AB +, he should get low teens HR with close to double digits SB.

     

     

    2015 Dodgers 16.2 % 16.2 % 1.00 .207 .361 .276 .637 .069 4.7 .261 0.0 -0.2 0.2 4 -0.3 .302 93
    2016 Dodgers 13.5 % 24.3 % 0.56 .156 .270 .188 .458 .031 1.4 .217 0.6 0.2 0.0 1 -2.9 .222 35
    2017 Dodgers 14.9 % 16.4 % 0.91 .289 .408 .486 .895 .197 4.9 .329 -1.3 -0.2 0.2 46 14.3 .386 142
    2018 Dodgers 13.0 % 28.2 % 0.46 .205 .329 .290 .619 .085 3.8 .287 0.8 -0.8 -0.6 21 -6.6 .281 77

     

    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
    2015 25 LAD NL 20 37 29 4 6 2 0 0 1 1 0 6 6 .207 .361 .276 .637 83 8 2 1 1 0 0 2/45  
    2016 26 LAD NL 21 37 32 3 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 5 9 .156 .270 .188 .458 28 6 0 0 0 0 0 /245  
    2017 27 LAD NL 102 262 218 35 63 15 2 8 38 4 1 39 43 .289 .408 .486 .895 138 106 6 5 0 0 1 24/5D  
    2018 28 LAD NL 100 238 200 32 41 5 0 4 14 4 3 31 67 .205 .329 .290 .619 72 58 7 6 1 0 4 24

     

    2019 THE BAT 97 339 390 78 52 16 1 9 45 38 43 2 90 5 2 1 8 5 2 .232
    2019 ATC 90 294 343 73 49 14 1 9 43 36 42 1 80 5 1 1 8 5 3 .248
    2019 Depth Charts 91 329 384 78 54 16 1 7 44 38 45 3 84 6 2 2   8 2 .237
    2019 Steamer 71 243 283 57 38 12 1 6 29 28 33 2 64 4 2 2   5 2 .233
    2019 ZiPS 102 262 306 63 44 13 1 5 38 30 37 2 65 5 1 1 7 7 2 .240
    • Like 1
  2. On 2/21/2019 at 7:54 AM, svdude said:

    What can we expect from Whitley in 2019?

     

    Whitley was still taking the rust off on the command after coming back from suspension and thus resulted in a 3.76 ERA and 3.8 BB/9; however, his ARI FL stats shows that his command is back and he had an increase of K/9 from his AA season in 2018.

    I think he will continue to refine his stuff as losing chunk of last year from the suspension definitely delays his MLB debut. In 2017, Whitley actually had an increase in K/9 and decrease in BB/9 on every level ascend. With Astros seem to have 5 rotation spots filled up in Verlander, Cole, McHugh, James, and probably Valdez, as well as the rumor that Keuchel could still be signed, I don't see the Astros in a hurry of debuting Whitley. I think he starts in AA and he shows his 2017 stuff, he will be sent to AAA; his MLB debut probably will come after the All Star break, unless he is pushing the buttons with his performance and Astros have a immediate need in the rotation due to injury, under-performance...etc.

     

    2017 19   3 Teams 3 Lgs A-A+-AA HOU 5 4 .556 2.83 2.92 23 18 1 0 0 0 92.1 78 30 29 5 34 0 143 5 1 7 380 1.213 7.6 0.5 3.3 13.9 4.21
    2017 19 -5.1 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 0 0   1.84 1.84 4 2 0 0 0 0 14.2 8 3 3 1 4 0 26 1 0 0 56 0.818 4.9 0.6 2.5 16.0 6.50
    2017 19 -3.8 Buies Creek CARL A+ HOU 3 1 .750 3.16 3.16 7 6 1 0 0 0 31.1 28 11 11 2 9 0 50 2 0 4 129 1.181 8.0 0.6 2.6 14.4 5.56
    2017 19 -2.9 Quad Cities MIDW A HOU 2 3 .400 2.91 3.11 12 10 0 0 0 0 46.1 42 16 15 2 21 0 67 2 1 3 195 1.360 8.2 0.4 4.1 13.0 3.19
    2018 20 -4.1 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 0 2 .000 3.76 3.76 8 8 0 0 0 0 26.1 15 11 11 2 11 0 34 2 0 0 108 0.987 5.1 0.7 3.8 11.6 3.09
    2018 20 -3.3 Scottsdale AZFL Fal   1 2 .333 2.42 4.15 6 6 0 0 0 0 26.0 18 12 7 0 7 0 36 0 2 0 103 0.962 6.2 0.0 2.4 12.5 5.14

     

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  3. On 2/22/2019 at 9:48 AM, F@ndemonium said:

    Even if he is a catcher hybrid/utility type player, there is a strong likelihood that he could amass enough starts annually at catcher to retain eligibility.  There is talk of him playing some at the keystone and outfield, providing potential for him to even see more regular at bats than traditional backstops.  

    Unless he makes some adjustments at the plate he will struggle to hit for high average, however the combination of power & speed is tantalizing enough to make him worth a roster spot.  

     

    I agree that he could very well be a hybrid type player; what I am trying to figure out though is what BA are we looking at him providing in his prime. I asked the question to Michael at IBW and hopefully will get an answer back soon; he had him at .240; is this a good indication? Somehow I feel it's a bit low.

    From his 2018 A+ K % and BB% (shown below), which is average, gave me a feel that he will be between .250 and in his prime .275 (I know subjective); his power should develop enough to be an annual 20+HR, with 15 to 20 SB, I think that's a good counting stats for a player who has a C eligibility. 

     

    Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
    2017 Diamondbacks (A-) 50 212 7 36 39 7 8.0 % 14.2 % .223 .338 .311 .368 .534 .407 150        
    2018 Diamondbacks (R) 3 12 1 4 1 0 0.0 % 8.3 % .583 .500 .500 .500 1.083 .705 321        
    2018 Diamondbacks (A+) 80 342 11 44 44 19 8.8 % 20.8 % .164 .341 .286 .363 .451 .362 121        
    2019 Steamer 0 1 0 0 0 0 5.8 % 22.2 % .111 .266 .220 .272 .331 .263 60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

     

  4. Michael-IBW

    Just want to seek some clarifications, when you talked about Varsho and said he probably won't hit much better than your average catcher and provided a prime stat on BA at .240; can you please let me know how/what you based on the low BA in his prime? Just a legit question, trying to see where he might be in the future. I thought he would be more of a .275 hitter than a below .250 hitter in his prime... Thx!

     

    • Like 1
  5. 9 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

     

    This should open up a chance for Gohara to potentially get the 5 spot in the rotation.

     

    He will be in competition for sure with Touki and even Fried be as part of the competition. If he really comes back stronger than last year with an increase in velocity like in 2017, sky is the limit for this guy. 

    Sucks for Soroka though; I really like him!

  6. 1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

    Due to his lack of command, I see him as a mid rotation starter. However, I think he could be an elite closer.

     

    I have him in dynasty so hoping for the best because he does have terrific pure stuff.

     

    Touki heard you and said he's been working on his FB command this offseason.... I do think with his stuff, he is more than just a mid rotation SP. I could very well develop into a #2 with the refinement of the command.

     

     

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  7. Looks like only Yahoo valued him low with late second round; all others value him early to mid second round. He probably won't hit close to 40 with that park as well as the other NL West pitchers parks, but he should still provide an early to mid second round value.

     

    image.png.17aabfe44d7530b09bc3ab08f6c77650.png

     

    Also, if this would happen, anything could..... I am sure Manny can still do it! :)

     

    tolohr

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  8. 1 hour ago, kmoore1521 said:

    Updating a previous item, Mark Reynolds will not see time at second base this spring.

    Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post misconstrued some comments from manager Bud Black and corrected the record on Monday morning. The Rockies' second base competition is likely going to come down to Garrett Hampson or Ryan McMahon. As for Reynolds, he signed a minor league deal with the Rockies in late January and would function as a bench bat if the makes the Opening Day roster

     

    So back to square one... I still think Hampson has a leg up in the competition due to his performance so far in MLB compares to that of McMahon's

  9. Not only did he jumped to top 100 list in 2019, but the Top 3 "Most Trusted Prospects Ranking" sites all have him top 50!

    FG  #26

    PL #33

    IBW #38

    I think to this point, he might still be a bit underrated; but I think the ranking will continue to creep up! His floor is already pretty amazing, if he ever develops some more power! OK I am drooling now... lol

     

     

     

  10. So, in this combined top 100 ranking, Brujan is more of a #3 prospect in the TBR system rather than a #7 (per top 30 list).

     

    It would be nice to inter-relate the different lists since it's from the same site; I get the human stuff as explained by the author, but once they have the combined top 100 list cooked out, I would think it will be easier to re-rank the top 30.

     

    Looking strictly the TBR prospects: PL has Brujan @ 33 and indicated that he is #7 TBR prospect, but there were only 2 TBR prospects ahead of Brujan in Franco and Honeywell. #3 McKay, #4 Sanchez, and #5/#6 Lowes/Lowes were all ranked behind Brujan on the PL Top 100 list with the Lowes' not even on the top 100 list. It can get confusing. 

  11. 3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

    To even consider it makes him an idiot.  You need younger legs at 2B.  But if Black loves vets at 2B I am sure the Red Sox would love to trade Pedroia with his totally bad knees and his mega-contract to the Rockies for Hampson.

     

    Can you imagine how high the value of Hampson will be if he was indeed traded to the Red Sox with a firm grip at 2B job? That lineup, that ballpark as well as the rest of the AL East (except TBR) Ballpark would make him an interesting pick! 

    • Like 2
  12. 1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

     

    is tendi going from one of the worst offenses and offensive ballparks to one of the best this year? :P

    Related image

     

    OK that was a bit old now that I used it previously..... But this is how I see it, both Yelich and Beni came up to the show at the tender age of 21. In his first 3 years in the MLB, Yelich had the following lines ('13-'15)

    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
    2013 21 MIA NL 62 273 240 34 69 12 1 4 16 10 0 31 66 .288 .370 .396 .766 112 95 4 1 0 1 1 7/8  
    2014 22 MIA NL 144 660 582 94 165 30 6 9 54 21 7 70 137 .284 .362 .402 .764 115 234 9 3 3 2 3 *78 GG
    2015 23 MIA NL 126 525 476 63 143 30 2 7 44 16 5 47 101 .300 .366 .416 .782 118 198 13 2 0 0 2 *78  
    2016 24 MIA NL 155 659 578 78 172 38 3 21 98 9 4 72 138 .298 .376 .483 .859 135 279 20 4 0 5 4 *78/D MVP-19,SS
    2017 25 MIA NL 156 695 602 100 170 36 2 18 81 16 2 80 137 .282 .369 .439 .807 120 264 13 6 0 6 4 *8  
    2018 26 MIL NL 147 651 574 118 187 34 7 36 110 22 4 68 135 .326 .402 .598 1.000 164 343 14 7 0 2 2 *798 AS,MVP-1,S

     

    And Beni had the following lines.....

    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
    2016 21 BOS AL 34 118 105 16 31 11 1 2 14 1 0 10 25 .295 .359 .476 .835 118 50 0 1 1 1 0 7/8  
    2017 22 BOS AL 151 658 573 84 155 26 1 20 90 20 5 70 112 .271 .352 .424 .776 103 243 16 6 1 8 7 *78 RoY-2
    2018 23 BOS AL 148 661 579 103 168 41 6 16 87 21 3 71 106 .290 .366 .465 .830 123 269 9 2 2 7 1 *78

     

    While the park could be a factor, but Yelich had 21 HR in his 4th year in the same ballpark he was in the first 3 years of his young career; the spike in HR total in his 4th year is a natural growth as a hitter as part of the projection Yelich is to be.

    Beni is just 24 years old going in 2019, some players are still in the minors or about to debut in MLB at this age and he is already going into his 4th year in the majors. Park factor or not, I see Beni continue to improve as a hitter. His OPS in 2018 was the highest of all three years and Yelich's highest in the same span was 118.

    Patience is the key to many talented hitters and Beni is definitely one of them. I learnt my lessons for giving up on Yelich and I will urge Beni owners to exercise patience. 

     

     

     

     

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  13. 2 hours ago, absknicks said:

     

    He hit 2 HRs over the final 3 months of the season last year. Can't spend a first round pick on a guy with such a glaring lack of power.

     

    Agree, even in dynasty I wouldn't have spent first round pick on Beni; many other options to choose from in first.

    For redraft, I would have gone late second round to early third on him. 

    • Like 1
  14. Problem with Bart is he is way too aggressive and will often chase pitches outside of the strike-zone. Power is certainly for real but what kind of BA are we looking at once he reaches the show? Based on his current underlying stats, I do feel that he will struggle with his BA and hovering around .250.

     

    That being said, he is still developing so who knows, maybe in 2019 and beyond he learns to be more patient and have better idea of the strike-zone, if so, his status will fly.

  15. 8 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

     

    Wouldn’t those numbers make him about a top 65ish player? Flip the HR and SB and a few more runs (and of course 40 more points in BA) and you have Benintendi last year. Those are some lofty goals. If he gets 70/17/75/15 I think people should be happy. 

     

    I would say that somewhere in that range but likely a 5-10 spots lower IF he does it in 2019 and we are talking about 2020. The stats I stated in my original post could make Bauer around 65, however, his eligible positions are 1B/OF and his stats won't rank it that high with those two positions and thus the 5-10 spots drop.   However, he is not proven, so he obviously is not being considered even a top 200 player right now. His adp is #250sh at the moment.

     

    I was based on the article I posted for his potential stats; his HR should grow some in Progressive Field (that right field can help!). I agree that 180 between R+RBI is lofty, 140-150 R+RBI is a good estimate in an improved lineup. On SB, base on his 2018 50% SB success rate, I don't believe he can be 20 SB in 2019, but a bit improvement in BA and 1 year experience under his belt, he can certainly steal around 15. 

     

    I see him as a sleeper.

  16.  

    20 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

     

     

    Very good point about IP. I doubt he tops 150 given his age/recent track record. Not as worried much worried about the FIP given bolded part.  

     

    Very good point too, Slatykamora. If he is someone's #8 SP, I think that someone is doing fine with his draft.  I have Anibal as a potential pick from my dynasty league this year, but do have others like Musgrove and McHugh, among others as options. 

  17. Anibal's FIP last year of 3.62 does show that some regression could happen; also, you are probably looking at an inning count of no more than 150 IP as his last three year's inning pitched were 153.1, 101.1, 136.2. 

     

    With all this in mind, I would say he is a top 250; I am sure some will reach for him a bit like Magoo mentioned; but the fact that he can't pitch deeper in the game really hurt his value.

  18. 3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

     

    Good Lord I hope we see this in 2019! Honestly though I don't see it happening but I think it could at some point in his career. Either way, I am really going to enjoy visiting SunTrust often this summer. 

     

    I agree, I am a big Acuña fan but I don't see 40/30 in 2019; at some point in his career, he will but to say he will at 2019 that's pretty high expectation on the kid. I hope he does of course, but won't hold my breath for it.

  19. 15 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

    If I’m remembering correctly, his K’s also seemed to spike upon promotion and then decrease after getting acclimated a bit. If he can get his BB/K at .50 he’s gonna be a nightmare at bat. 143 wRC+ isn’t too shabby for someone who couldn’t buy a beer. 

     

    Great point, I miss the part where he actually had the K% decreased a bit. I think we will see continuous improvement. 

  20. 6 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

     

    What exactly makes you believe he has such a high floor?

     

    I see Acuña as a very minimum 20/20 player with a good chance to be 30/30 player and his BB% of 9.2% last year is close to above average; while he did strikeout 25% that might hurt his BA,  But even that, considering that he had a career minor league K % of 21%, I see him improving from that 25% in his first taste of the majors. 

     

    Taking him in first round is obviously for his tremendous upside but I am willing to take the risk here knowing that his floor is a 20/20 .265-.275 BA and .330 - .340 OBP.

    • Like 1
  21. It does seem that his last two months of the season stats shows he started to figure something out.

     

    A closer look at his K rate dropped from 28.8% in '17 to 20.1% in '18 and BB% increased from 1.8% to 4.9%; obviously none of the two rates are where we'd like to see for a player rely from on his speed than power. But at least the numbers are getting closer to his minor league K% of 17.3% and BB% of 5.8%. 

     

    I see him as a low double digit HR guy with 20+ SB and a BA of around .275; depending on your team roster and how many you get to keep per season, but in a 12 team keep 10 format, I wouldn't necessary keep him as there are many other keeper worthy SS out there. I see him at best a top 15 shortstop at season end.

  22. 8 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

     

    ya, and its because he changed his pitch mix in the 2nd half.  going away from fastballs at home and throwing more sinkers, sliders, curves....all of which are his plus pitches.

     

    he got ahead of counts, had a higher swinging strike rate, and got more soft contact.  all of which are needed to be successful at coors.

     

    So you believe his second half success is sustainable? I mean it was definitely crazy when I found out that his second half stats home/away split was in favor of home considering Coors Field is his home.

     

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