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AF25

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Posts posted by AF25

  1. He does have a bit extreme home/away split last year overall. However, in his second half, he managed with a 2.07 ERA/1.09 WHIP and a 12.55K/9 in 8 home games including one post season at home against MIL in which he gave up 2 ER in 5 IP and K'd 5. The second half home game stats are actually a bit better that that of on the road; more K/9 and always a full 1 ERA less at home.

     

    Is he truly turning the corner? I guess that's the question many of us ask here. But I do agree with a couple posters above, that we should exercise cautious against some big offensive teams at home.

     

    Schedule G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
    Home 16 16 6 6 0 0 - 0 - 89.1 100 49 47 13 31 110 4.74 1.47 .284
    Away 17 17 8 5 0 0 - 0 - 106.2 79 41 35 11 26 120 2.95 0.98 .203

     

    HOME

    IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
    52.1 46 13 12 11 73 5 2.07 1.09

     

    AWAY

    IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
    57.2 44 23 20 12 69 5 3.12 0.97
    • Like 2
  2. On 1/24/2019 at 2:50 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

    Good luck getting him in the 3rd.  

     

    He's a first round talent.  If you want to pass on him for a safer pick, I get it...but he's a legit 30/30 guy.  3rd place pays as much as last and in the NFBC many of these contests are playing for an overall prize.  It's more about maxing out potential than it is being safe because being safe lands you in the middle of the rankings.  So with that said, his adp may be a little lower in a yahoo or espn league than it is right now, but he's not dropping far.  

     

    Dedicating my 100th post to Ronald Acuña......

     

    Acuña has a pre-season ranking on Yahoo at 9; it is not crazy to think that he is a legit 30/30 guy at all. Sometimes you have to take a risk and I think Acuña's floor makes him a less risky first rounder.

     

    I don't believe as we get closer to the season, you will see an ADP of 18 or higher as shown below in RTSSports and ESPN, this kid is going off first round right now in many platforms.

     

    ADP/Rankings
    Source Rank
    ADP - NFBC 8
    Rankings - Composite 9
    Rankings - Steamer 10
    ADP - Fantrax 10
    Rankings - RotoChamp 12
    ADP - RTSports 18
    ADP - ESPN 23

     

  3. Just try to study more about Montesi and saw this article in which they are comparing him to Jose Reyes career path.

     

    Reyes versus Mondesi—age 22 seasons

    Player BB% K% ISO wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
    Jose Reyes 3.7% 10.6% 0.114 80 7.4 -11.2 4.7 1.7
    Adalberto Mondesi 3.8% 26.5% 0.222 114 5.1 10.0 7.7 2.8

     

    Reyes at the age 22 season (2005), had an OBP of .300 but improved a career OBP to .334; however, in his peak years, he had even higher at .344 OBP. Mondesi at age 22 season had an OBP of .306; so can't say he won't improve a bit. Maybe not Reyes' improvement (since Reyes had much higher contact rate), but there is still hope some improvement between BB% and contact % will push the OBP a bit higher. 

     

    The power/speed talent is real, so at end of the '19 season, hitting 20+ HR with 45+ SB is not an insane projection. As for BA/OBP, it's a bit hard to project, but I see him in '19 season improve from his career contact rate/BB% to make him at least a hitter with .250-.260 BA and with an OBP over .300.

     

     

    • Like 2
  4. 3 hours ago, StevieStats said:

    Plate discipline seminars? He has a 23% O-Swing (18th best in MLB, only 1% higher than Trout) and walks 10%. If anything that's one of his strengths.

     

    Now maybe his 2 strike approach needs work, but his issues are mainly contact related, only 79.8% Z-Contact which is 12th worst in baseball. So praying to Tony Gwynn will serve him well... either him or Jobu.

     

    Agree, he needs to work on 2-strike approach, based on this article I think he needs to be a bit more aggressive in 2 strike counts. I can't find his overall 2018 called strikeouts vs. swing and miss strikeouts, but in the article which was written back in June 2018, he had about 1/3 of his strikeouts came from called strikeouts. That's quite a bit, so not being as selective in 2 strike counts, plus also to improve on his contact rate, it should help reduce his K rate tremendously.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  5. 13 hours ago, joshtribe said:

    Thanks for the rebuttal, which is partially why I posted that information. I like to have my preconceived notions challenged.

     

    Inspired by your Goldschmidt info, I dug a little deeper. I looked up the career splits for Goldy, Mookie Betts, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, all of whom are fairly comparable to Acuna as power/speed threats. All of them have attempted more stolen bases per PA batting 4th than they have batting 1st or 2nd. The sample sizes aren't the greatest and variations in OBP could factor in, but it is interesting nonetheless.

     

    I'm not a Braves fan, but it seems to me that the only lineup spot locked down is Freeman batting 3rd. Inciarte, Albies, Donaldson, and Acuna will likely move around. I expect Donaldson to hit the DL at some point. I would guess that Albies would bat 2nd in that case, but who really knows. Right now, the best information we have suggests that Acuna will be the primary cleanup hitter.

     

    Given the competing lines of data, perhaps my initial worries about Acuna's SB potential this season were overblown. He probably won't bat 4th the entire season; and even if he does, it appears he could end up stealing a lot more bases than one would expect from a 4 hole hitter. I'll bump my projection up from 16 to 18. Still less than the projection models, but still a solid number of SBs.

     

    I'm still probably not drafting Acuna. There will probably be at least one true believer in every league who is willing to draft him in the late 1st/early 2nd round. For me, rounds 1-3 are all about safe players with high floors and a degree of upside. I will never draft a player with less than a full season of ML experience that early. I would be assuming a lot of risk for minimal profit. Keeping my projection for Acuna overly modest will insure that I adhere to this precept.

     

    It does look like he will bat 4th and with Markakis batting behind him, he should be running A LOT! I feel that the Braves lineup with how it is currently constructed, 1-4 is more of a traditional get on base; move the runner/steal a base, a long ball or extra base power and score some run; from 5-9 will more like small ball game with Acuña set the table if he did not have an extra base hit and Markakis moving him over to the next base.

     

    LOL. you will probably find me drafting him in late 1st/early 2nd in a redraft. Might not be the best strategy, and agree that could be risky, but that's just how I value him. 

     

     

  6. It does look like per DOB that Snitker is leaning towards Inciarte batting first with Donny batting second, Freeman third and Acuña 4th. Yeah no more flashy move to the lineup and as it stands Markakis will bat behind Acuña; now THAT's a knock on Acuña's value if Markakis is "protecting" him....

  7. 3 hours ago, joshtribe said:

    I'm working on my personal projections for the upcoming season, and I just finished projecting Acuna.

     

    One thing I noticed when consulting other projections (Steamer, THE BAT, Rotochamp, etc) is that they all project Acuna to steal 20+ bases. Some people are drafting him with 30+ SB upside in mind.

     

    On the surface, this seems reasonable. He stole 44 bases in the minors in 2017. Last season, he stole 21 between AAA and the majors. If you pace his major league steal rate over a full season of at bats, he ends up with 22 steals. His sprint speed is excellent. His 29.6 ft/sec places him 11th among players with 50 or more competitive runs. Yet despite all this, I project him to steal only 16 bases.

     

    One factor that I believe isn't being considered by the projection models is his projected place in the Braves lineup. Both Roster Resource and Rotochamp project him to bat cleanup. Last season, Acuna spent most of his time batting 1st (301 PA) or 2nd (116 PA...70 PA in other positions including 44 in the 6th spot). He stole all 16 of his bases batting 1st or 2nd and zero in any other lineup position. I had a hard time thinking of a cleanup hitter who stole a significant amount of bases, so I did some digging. I found the following article on fangraphs.

     

    https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-does-batting-order-affect-stolen-bases/

     

    The key quote from the article...

     

    "It’s hard to wade through all of this data. Some of it’s conflicting. There are many variables at play. But where a player hits in the lineup does seem to affect stolen base frequency. You never want to see that a base stealer is going to bat third or fourth."

     

    With Acuna being considered by many to be a 1st round pick in his sophomore season, I think his new lineup spot could have enough of a negative impact on his SB total to make him a 1st round bust. Draft with caution.

     

    Great post. I agree in general term that where you bat in the lineup will affect the SB number. However, there is always exceptions, using Goldschmidt as an example, in 2018, he stole more bases (albeit not his usual total SB number), batting 3rd, than batting any others spot in the lineup. So not saying you are wrong, because you are spot on the theory; but just there is always exceptions.

     

    Paul Goldschmidt batting order 2018

    Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
    Batting 2nd 47 47 220 192 35 67 11 0 17 40 1 1 26 45 .349 .432 .672 1.104 129 2 2 0 0 4 2 .385 137 184
    Batting 3rd 78 78 342 289 45 75 18 4 11 27 5 1 49 89 .260 .372 .464 .836 134 4 3 0 0 4 5 .339 83 110
    Batting 4th 31 31 126 110 15 30 6 1 5 16 1 2 15 37 .273 .365 .482 .847 53 1 1 0 0 3 4 .368 84 116

     

    Paul Goldschmidt batting order 2017

    Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
    Batting 3rd 101 101 444 368 83 111 22 2 22 77 15 4 68 92 .302 .419 .552 .971 203 7 7 0 1 11 5 .349 102 136
    Batting 4th 51 51 219 189 34 55 12 1 14 42 3 1 26 55 .291 .376 .587 .963 111 7 1 0 2 4 0 .336 97 13

     

     

    Also, at the moment, nothing is decided yet, and the Braves are still searching for their RF and that players might be a cleanup hitter if AA shows his silent magic once again. If not, Inciarte or Albies could be at the second spot, making Donaldson the cleanup hitter. So lots of potential moving parts still trying to put in place before opening day. 

  8. Where did you see the under .100 BA vs. LHP? I see .176 (not much better) against LHP and .211 against RHP( also not much better). I think all in all, last year's second half was a big learning curve for Bauers. I have not seen any reports, but I'm sure the Indians are working with him to improve from 2018. Pitch recognition, how to hit breaking balls...etc. 

  9. 55 minutes ago, Chewy47 said:

    So at this point does Moncada still hold value in keeper leagues? It's too soon to give up on him isn't it? Or not?

     

    Depends on how many keepers you can keep and how many of them on your roster is ahead of him. I do feel that 2019, we will see some good improvement (not necessary a breakout) to his 2018 numbers. He did request for the coaches for some extra time to work on his issues during offseason, so there is that going for him. 

  10. With him able to play both corner OF and 1B, even in a platoon situation, I think he will amass more than his share. 400 + AB shouldn't be out of reach. The whiffing in the second half is a concern, and a lot has to do with pitchers adjusting to him. He is a smart player with very good plate discipline, saw him played in Durham and right away traded for him. 

  11. I stumbled upon this article about Bauers and definitely got me more optimistic about his 2019 season. 15+ SB is real possibility; his HR power could go up as a lefty at Progressive Field. 

     

    I will be more than happy to get something like 90/20/90/15 and a .250 BA from him this year as a 1B. With SB being scarce these days, that's value.

     

    Thoughts?

    • Like 1
  12. So on average, he seems to be a top 50 player; I am sure many people inflated his stats from last year, which I learned the hard way, not to. I took him from waiver last year in one of my leagues and will have the right of him this year too; so at least the risk is minimum. In the redraft league if he is available in 5 round (at least 12 teams) or later, I will feel more comfortable on taking him. The secondary stats just scares me some.

  13. What are your thoughts on Marquez? Is his K/9 rate for real or fluke? Went all the way form 8.2 to 10.6. Not really a big K guy in the minors; did he figure something out?

     

    His FIP is a bit lower than his ERA; so it means his success was not base off luck and as a matter of fact, he was just a bit unlucky. Lowest HR/9 in his young MLB career in '18.

     

    So thoughts?

  14. 1 hour ago, Magoo said:

    Long term he has a better chance at a job if he switches to the OF.  So if Dozier or someone else gets signed, they make that transition now. Either way he’s not staying at 2B

     

    Speaking strictly from fantasy POV. Hampson's value will sure go down some if he is switched to OF; I mean a 2B with double digit HR and 40+ SB is a lot more valuable than the same stats but an OF.... Not comparing here, just that the situation is similar; but few years back I drafted Betts as my future 2B only to see the Sox switch him to OF full time in '15. Mookie was 18HR and 21SB in '15 and those stats would have been awesome for a 2B, but just considered really good as an OF. Also, I seem to remember reading somewhere that Hampson is considered future gold glover at 2B.  

     

     

    • Like 2
  15. 5 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

     

    Ad he can still play all three positions while being the everyday 2B.  When Story or Arendo need a day off, slide him over to their spots and let McMahon play those days.  Just because a person can play several positions doesn't mean he waits around on the bench waiting for an opening some day to play at one of those spots.  He can play everyday at his main position and still slide over to other positions on days when he is needed there instead.

     

    Fine by me, I need him to be versatile. :)  Maybe not the super utility type, which is even better, that means he plays more. 

  16. Hampson is an exciting player with elite speed and with Coors being home, he could be hitting some double digit HR. I agree that Hampson should be ahead of McMahon; but since they are loaded with 2B and Rockies being Rockies, they may go that route. After all, he did play all three positions I've mentioned both in the minors and majors (albeit only three innings in MLB and didn't had a chance to field). 

  17. On 11/2/2018 at 10:19 AM, burty1 said:

    I do agree that the average is likely to regress.  However, I think that 20 SB very possible/likely.  He runs anytime/anywhere.  The fact that he had 2 SB and 6 CS isn't a major deterrent to my thoughts.  It simply says that Javy is going to be Javy and keep running no matter what.  Madden encourages him to be aggressive.  That's who he is, and I don't think his approach is going to be any different next season.

     

    I hope you are right though, I have him on my dynasty, so definitely need him to provide both power and speed.

  18. 11 hours ago, Khahan said:

    A .290 30/20 multi positional middle infielder  in a line up that should net him 200 runs/rbi's again as low end second round?    What 20-25 players will put up better numbers than .290 30/20 at any position?   I think a few players get name recognition picks ahead of him, but those are solid round 1 numbers.

     

    I think a lot has to do with his projections into 2019. First the SB, he will more likely around 10 SB than 20. Since August, he only had 2 SB and 6 CS. Then it's the BA, his career average is .267, so a regression is more likely in place for him. The power is legit, but by taken away 20+ SB potential and an average likely around .275, that would probably make him a low end second round. If I were in a redraft league and pick in the middle of the second round, I would grab him for sure.

  19. 8 hours ago, 96mnc said:

     

    Hope for a trade to say Baltimore, KC, or Detroit.

     

    Could say the same for Dan Vogelsong.

     

     

    Out of the three, I wish for Baltimore; his left handed swing can be very sweet in that ballpark as well as at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. 

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