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En Votto Veritas

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  1. I love Bohm as a player but frankly I think he's overpriced going into 2021 at NFC #103. I agree wholeheartedly with @89Topps that he won't scratch 30 HRs, so how is a line of .280 - 18 - 75 - 90 - 5 worth a top 100 pick? I'm giving him the AVG and the R because he's got a great hit tool and will hit 2nd in the PHI lineup behind Cutch and in front of Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins. That is a very nice place to be hitting but those numbers are basically Escobar/Davis with more AVG. Hayes and Urshela are going 30 picks later and should put up similar lines. 🤷‍♂️
  2. Musgrove has big upside: huge Ks with very solid ratios, but small sample size and thus decent risk. I think he's a bit of a polarizing pick but it really depends on what your staff looks like going into the hundreds in a draft. If my SP floor is solid then I'm definitely down to take Musgrove and see if he can push me over the top. On the other hand, if I've already incorporated a bit of risk in my staff then I may be more inclined to reach for a Greinke/McCullers/Morton.
  3. His 162-game average for his career is: .271/.372 - 29 - 96 - 88 - 8 so it may be wise to temper our thoughts after 58 games in a season marred by pandemic, crazy schedules, and whatnot. I think Rizzo is better than the above comments may say, however his draft price still appears to be inflated for standard/shallow leagues or non-OBP leagues. Later you can pick up Moose/Hoskins/Bell/Walker/Santana, all of whom can put up that line minus 20 points in average or so. Still, in OBP leagues, points leagues, or deeper leagues where consistency/floor is more valuable, I think he's decently priced perhaps even slightly discounted.
  4. It deserves to be said that Edman/DeJong/Goldy stocks all going 👆.
  5. Easy hard pass. There was a recent podcast, Sleeper and the Bust I think, in which they universally panned Lamet for the injury reasons already noted, but one other reason I found very interesting. Basically Lamet showed sigsn of being hurt after amping up his fastball velo. This increased velo made him a better pitcher but hurt his arm, and towards the end of the season he had to drop the velo to stay on the field. Point is, he has only two pitches and if one of them, the fastball, isn't fast enough to be effective then he only really has one pitch. Not a good outlook and definitely not a good value at the current ADP.
  6. I think @fletch44 is right about a straight platoon for La Stella; he should bat everyday against righties. However there's an article on Fangraphs right now that claims he'll be platooning with Longoria/Solano, not Flores: I think ultimately it will be a Rays-esque sort of infield with platoons and matchups rotating between La Stella, Solano, Flores, Longoria, Crawford. There may be a similar rotating door in the outfield with Dickerson/Slater/Dubon and potentially Flores and Belt as well. Really only Yaz and possibly Belt are guaranteed to be starting absolutely every day. Not ideal but definitely viable as far as real life baseball goes. I just hope there's enough at-bats to make La Stella viable in fantasy as I love his profile.
  7. As a Giants fan I am 100% here for this La Stella signing. As a fantasy player I'm also interested in it as it pretty much guarantees La Stella as much playing time as he can get and puts him behind Yaz/Solano/Dickerson which isn't as bad as most people think. There could be 80+ RBIs and good AVG/OBP here for virtually no draft cost. Good bench bat or MI reserve.
  8. It's likely I won't have him on many teams as his price is a bit too high for me. He's going at #15 on NFC and there's just too much uncertainty baked into his track record to feel confident in him as my ace and an early pick. Plus he was openly using a substance on the ball and it's not clear if that will be as allowed going forward; could kill his spin rate and revert him to a mid-tier starter.
  9. Those projections are very, very generous and appear to believe that he will not suffer at all from a very serious ailment and missed year. Looks like the average of the other projections is something like: .270/.335 - 23 - 70 - 65 - 1 I will take that as a baseline and add a few more RBIs and Rs as he'll be hitting fourth behind Hays/Stewart/Santander who aren't that terrible and should be on base a decent amount, so let's say .270/.335 - 23 - 80 - 75 - 1? At pick #182 you can have Mancini at 1B or Sano/Walker/Walsh, or Mancini in OF or Kepler/Frazier/Grichuk. I think he's in fair company though I'd probably take Walker over him at 1B and Kepler over him at OF. Here's the other projections HR-R-RBI-SB-BB%-K%-ISO-BABIP-AVG-OBP-SLG-wOBA 2021 THE BAT X 120 507 24 66 68 0 8.5% 22.3% .210 .312 .273 .341 .482 .351 2021 THE BAT 120 507 22 65 65 1 8.4% 22.3% .200 .310 .269 .337 .468 .344 2021 ATC 115 488 21 64 66 1 8.0% 22.7% .202 .310 .268 .333 .470 .342 2021 Depth Charts 120 518 23 65 72 1 7.7% 23.1% .210 .312 .269 .332 .479 .339 2021 Steamer 120 532 24 70 71 2 8.5% 23.6% .206 .305 .262 .332 .468 .336 2021 ZiPS 127 527 24 64 77 1 6.8% 22.6% .214 .319 .277 .332 .491 .343
  10. Depends on the team I guess, but it's something to watch out for. As it stands the MLB is trying for a full season and most people think you take what a guy threw in 2020 and add 100 innings. So a team like the A's/Twins/Nats are looking pretty good in comparison to the Braves or Cardinals.
  11. You are certainly right about his statcast profile. I guess my response is, if his statcast is blue but his stat lines continue to be red, then so what? We aren't playing statcast fantasy baseball, we're playing regular-ol' fantasy baseball. In 2019, subpar statcast and all, he hit .282/.382 - 31 - 77 - 108 - 4. What's not to like there? Yes there is the potential that his 2020 season showed us what his statcast was trying to say all along, and that 2021 will continue on this path and he will flop. But he has no history of doing so, so the risk is not in Bryant being a flop at pick #131, rather, the risk is in assuming he will be and missing out on the value.
  12. Your point is well taken. In truth, 2B is not as deep in 2021 as other positions and the cutoff for strong 12-team viable 2B ends around Edman at #131. So if you are concerned about the relative shallow-ness of the position you absolutely will want to secure a 2B earlier rather than later. Personally, if I miss on some earlier 2B targets I like Solak/Madrigal later (hard pass on Hampson); La Stella is a great bat to combo with a Gimenez, say, or a Taylor.
  13. I love the TOR lineup. Not only will it be the most exciting lineup to watch, perhaps in the game, but it is highly competitive against NYY and CWS. The starters have a huge problem, and that is that very few of them will likely throw a full season. Stripling threw 49.1 IP in 2020, so 150 in 2021 is likely his max. Pearson only threw 18 last year so 120 is likely his max. Ray threw 51.2 and is older and has a better history of throwing full seasons, but still you're looking at 160 max. Roark threw 47.2 so 150 max. So that leaves Ryu who himself threw 67 in 2020 so he may get to 180. They need another strong arm yes, but at that point it may be wisest to go to a 6-man rotation given that 4 of their starters probably won't top 150 IP in 2021.
  14. Yeah but it's not one for one, is it? Draft value is fluid and fundamentally comparative. By this I mean it's not about "who would you rather have: Albies/Altuve." On the contrary, it's about who would you rather have at their price and who are you leaving behind. So would you rather have Albies/Bohm or Arenado/Altuve? Albies/Swanson or Seager/Altuve? Albies/Moore or Tucker/Altuve? Albies/Goldy or DJL/Altuve? I don't think the OP was saying Altuve will outperform Albies, but given what you can get at Albies' price (Arenado/Seager/Tucker/DJL), Altuve seems comparatively more valuable.
  15. The K%/BB% is true, but the sample size is a mere 34 games. That's barely a fourth of a regular season and he has been extremely consistent in both throughout his career. Consider that, 2020 SSS aside, he's never had a BB% below 10.5% and after his rookie year he posted K%s of 22, 19.2, 23.4, and 22.9. Those numbers over four seasons are clockwork. I fear that Bryant has just become a guy that fantasy managers don't like, and I don't think there's good reason for it. I recall people saying he was injury prone in the past which has proved mostly false and now people are saying he's to be avoided or that there's risk with his pick. This is especially interesting given that Muncy will hurt your average and won't play a full season, while Bohm has played all of 44 games at the major league level; so there's huge quantifiable risk associated with those picks but very little with Bryant. I'm no Cubs or Bryant homer, but value is value. And frankly, until Bryant actually puts together a bad season we all should be buying at his discounted price.
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