Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

En Votto Veritas

Established Members
  • Content Count

    656
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. I love Bohm as a player but frankly I think he's overpriced going into 2021 at NFC #103.  I agree wholeheartedly with @89Topps that he won't scratch 30 HRs, so how is a line of .280 - 18 - 75 - 90 - 5 worth a top 100 pick?  I'm giving him the AVG and the R because he's got a great hit tool and will hit 2nd in the PHI lineup behind Cutch and in front of Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins.  That is a very nice place to be hitting but those numbers are basically Escobar/Davis with more AVG.  Hayes and Urshela are going 30 picks later and should put up similar lines.  🤷‍♂️

    • Like 2
  2. Musgrove has big upside: huge Ks with very solid ratios, but small sample size and thus decent risk.  I think he's a bit of a polarizing pick but it really depends on what your staff looks like going into the hundreds in a draft.  If my SP floor is solid then I'm definitely down to take Musgrove and see if he can push me over the top.  On the other hand, if I've already incorporated a bit of risk in my staff then I may be more inclined to reach for a Greinke/McCullers/Morton.

    • Like 1
  3. His 162-game average for his career is: .271/.372 - 29 - 96 - 88 - 8 so it may be wise to temper our thoughts after 58 games in a season marred by pandemic, crazy schedules, and whatnot.  I think Rizzo is better than the above comments may say, however his draft price still appears to be inflated for standard/shallow leagues or non-OBP leagues.  Later you can pick up Moose/Hoskins/Bell/Walker/Santana, all of whom can put up that line minus 20 points in average or so.  Still, in OBP leagues, points leagues, or deeper leagues where consistency/floor is more valuable, I think he's decently priced perhaps even slightly discounted.

     

  4. Easy hard pass.  There was a recent podcast, Sleeper and the Bust I think, in which they universally panned Lamet for the injury reasons already noted, but one other reason I found very interesting.  Basically Lamet showed sigsn of being hurt after amping up his fastball velo.  This increased velo made him a better pitcher but hurt his arm, and towards the end of the season he had to drop the velo to stay on the field.  Point is, he has only two pitches and if one of them, the fastball, isn't fast enough to be effective then he only really has one pitch.  Not a good outlook and definitely not a good value at the current ADP. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  5. 5 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

    Where will this leave poor Wilmer? I can't believe he will be left out in the cold for Solano, who is nearly 4 yrs older...but might be the case unless DH comes into play?

    I think @fletch44 is right about a straight platoon for La Stella; he should bat everyday against righties.  

    3 hours ago, fletch44 said:

    Yeah, I think it'll be a straight platoon with Flores. Flores is too good against lefties and LaStella not so much.

    However there's an article on Fangraphs right now that claims he'll be platooning with Longoria/Solano, not Flores:

    Quote

    Fortunately, one of the reasons the Giants are a good fit for La Stella is that they shouldn’t need to play him against lefties any more than they want to. The team’s entrenched starters at second base and third base — La Stella’s primary spots — are Donovan Solano and Evan Longoria, two right-handed hitters. Solano’s batting average-led surge in the last couple years has made him a breakout success in San Francisco, and Longoria still provides value as a good defender with an average bat. If La Stella is keeping his head above water against southpaws, the Giants can play him as much as they want in rotation with the other two. If he isn’t, then there isn’t any pressure to force him into the lineup.

    I think ultimately it will be a Rays-esque sort of infield with platoons and matchups rotating between La Stella, Solano, Flores, Longoria, Crawford.  There may be a similar rotating door in the outfield with Dickerson/Slater/Dubon and potentially Flores and Belt as well.  Really only Yaz and possibly Belt are guaranteed to be starting absolutely every day.  Not ideal but definitely viable as far as real life baseball goes.  I just hope there's enough at-bats to make La Stella viable in fantasy as I love his profile.

    • Like 2
  6. As a Giants fan I am 100% here for this La Stella signing.  As a fantasy player I'm also interested in it as it pretty much guarantees La Stella as much playing time as he can get and puts him behind Yaz/Solano/Dickerson which isn't as bad as most people think.  There could be 80+ RBIs and good AVG/OBP here for virtually no draft cost.  Good bench bat or MI reserve.

    • Like 1
  7. It's likely I won't have him on many teams as his price is a bit too high for me.  He's going at #15 on NFC and there's just too much uncertainty baked into his track record to feel confident in him as my ace and an early pick.  Plus he was openly using a substance on the ball and it's not clear if that will be as allowed going forward; could kill his spin rate and revert him to a mid-tier starter.  

  8. Those projections are very, very generous and appear to believe that he will not suffer at all from a very serious ailment and missed year.

    Looks like the average of the other projections is something like: .270/.335 - 23 - 70 - 65 - 1

    I will take that as a baseline and add a few more RBIs and Rs as he'll be hitting fourth behind Hays/Stewart/Santander who aren't that terrible and should be on base a decent amount, so let's say .270/.335 - 23 - 80 - 75 - 1?  At pick #182 you can have Mancini at 1B or Sano/Walker/Walsh, or Mancini in OF or Kepler/Frazier/Grichuk.  I think he's in fair company though I'd probably take Walker over him at 1B and Kepler over him at OF.

    Here's the other projections HR-R-RBI-SB-BB%-K%-ISO-BABIP-AVG-OBP-SLG-wOBA

    2021 THE BAT X 120 507 24 66 68 0 8.5% 22.3% .210 .312 .273 .341 .482 .351            
    2021 THE BAT 120 507 22 65 65 1 8.4% 22.3% .200 .310 .269 .337 .468 .344            
    2021 ATC 115 488 21 64 66 1 8.0% 22.7% .202 .310 .268 .333 .470 .342            
    2021 Depth Charts 120 518 23 65 72 1 7.7% 23.1% .210 .312 .269 .332 .479 .339            
    2021 Steamer 120 532 24 70 71 2 8.5% 23.6% .206 .305 .262 .332 .468 .336            
    2021 ZiPS 127 527 24 64 77 1 6.8% 22.6% .214 .319 .277 .332 .491 .343            
    • Like 3
  9. 48 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

    Can’t this be said for every team out there?  How many had SP’s that threw more than 70IP?  Heck, deGrom threw 68, does that mean he he going to be limited?

    Depends on the team I guess, but it's something to watch out for.  As it stands the MLB is trying for a full season and most people think you take what a guy threw in 2020 and add 100 innings.  So a team like the A's/Twins/Nats are looking pretty good in comparison to the Braves or Cardinals. 

    • Like 1
  10. 32 minutes ago, damana said:

    All valid points, however there are still a lot of red flags.  His statcast data is still subpar.  He's just not hitting the ball as hard as he used to and really struggles against breaking balls.  I understand SSS in '20 but he had the same problem in '19.  He was still Barreling the ball at an above average rate in in '19 but his xBA was in the bottom 30th percentile.  Everything cratered in '20 as far as his statcast.  

    When you couple that with his personal issues you have a very risky player.  Sure hes cheaper than hes ever been but (not to beat a dead horse), I don't think he's happy in Chicago.  Mental prep is a big part of the game and I feel that if he isn't mentally there he won't perform.  I don't think there is a player in MLB that could benefit more from a trade than Bryant.

    I'd like to know what you think of these issues. Maybe you see something I don't, cause at his ADP there is huge room for profit.

    You are certainly right about his statcast profile.  I guess my response is, if his statcast is blue but his stat lines continue to be red, then so what?  We aren't playing statcast fantasy baseball, we're playing regular-ol' fantasy baseball.  In 2019, subpar statcast and all, he hit .282/.382 - 31 - 77 - 108 - 4.  What's not to like there?  Yes there is the potential that his 2020 season showed us what his statcast was trying to say all along, and that 2021 will continue on this path and he will flop.  But he has no history of doing so, so the risk is not in Bryant being a flop at pick #131, rather, the risk is in assuming he will be and missing out on the value.

    • Like 2
  11. 26 minutes ago, turner46 said:

    My question to you is what if multiple owners are thinking like you and plan A Altuve goes and the other guy mentioned above Ketel Marte is likely gone before Altive then do you have plan C or D etc...???

    In closing I agree Altuve is the better value but with how I currently view the player pool and how I currently like to construct my roster he is not someone I am looking to plan my draft around. If I missed on Albies and in round 9 or 10 Altuve is there and I don't have a 2b then great but if I pass on Albies to get Altuve and he gets sniped in round 8 I currently don't have many if any late 2b targets that I like outside Madrigal and Hampson but those fit onto teams with a surplus of power where I generally aim to acquire power later. Hope this rambling makes sense.

    Your point is well taken.  In truth, 2B is not as deep in 2021 as other positions and the cutoff for strong 12-team viable 2B ends around Edman at #131.  So if you are concerned about the relative shallow-ness of the position you absolutely will want to secure a 2B earlier rather than later.  Personally, if I miss on some earlier 2B targets I like Solak/Madrigal later (hard pass on Hampson); La Stella is a great bat to combo with a Gimenez, say, or a Taylor.

    • Like 1
  12. I love the TOR lineup.  Not only will it be the most exciting lineup to watch, perhaps in the game, but it is highly competitive against NYY and CWS.

    The starters have a huge problem, and that is that very few of them will likely throw a full season.  Stripling threw 49.1 IP in 2020, so 150 in 2021 is likely his max.  Pearson only threw 18 last year so 120 is likely his max.  Ray threw 51.2 and is older and has a better history of throwing full seasons, but still you're looking at 160 max.  Roark threw 47.2 so 150 max.  So that leaves Ryu who himself threw 67 in 2020 so he may get to 180.  

    They need another strong arm yes, but at that point it may be wisest to go to a 6-man rotation given that 4 of their starters probably won't top 150 IP in 2021.

    • Like 2
  13. 35 minutes ago, turner46 said:

    Last year in a weird year health wise (weird year in general which very well can be the case again) Albies was on a 150 game pace of 30 HR and 15 SB, his postseason pace would be 25 HR and 25 SB, at just 24 years old and at a position that I currently don't view as deep personally I'm buying Albies.

    Yeah but it's not one for one, is it?  Draft value is fluid and fundamentally comparative.  By this I mean it's not about "who would you rather have: Albies/Altuve."  On the contrary, it's about who would you rather have at their price and who are you leaving behind.

    So would you rather have Albies/Bohm or Arenado/Altuve?  Albies/Swanson or Seager/Altuve?  Albies/Moore or Tucker/Altuve?  Albies/Goldy or DJL/Altuve?  

    I don't think the OP was saying Altuve will outperform Albies, but given what you can get at Albies' price (Arenado/Seager/Tucker/DJL), Altuve seems comparatively more valuable.

    • Like 5
  14. 12 hours ago, damana said:

    You are right about his BABIP, but his K% spiked while his BB% dropped.  He has never been a statcast darling but the last two years have been pretty bad with '20 registering all blue.   I said previously that I'd take Bohm and Muncy over him but looking at NFBC and Fantrax data they are both going about thirty picks before him.  At ADP 136 he might be worth the risk. 

    The K%/BB% is true, but the sample size is a mere 34 games.  That's barely a fourth of a regular season and he has been extremely consistent in both throughout his career.  Consider that, 2020 SSS aside, he's never had a BB% below 10.5% and after his rookie year he posted K%s of 22, 19.2, 23.4, and 22.9.  Those numbers over four seasons are clockwork.

    I fear that Bryant has just become a guy that fantasy managers don't like, and I don't think there's good reason for it.  I recall people saying he was injury prone in the past which has proved mostly false and now people are saying he's to be avoided or that there's risk with his pick.  This is especially interesting given that Muncy will hurt your average and won't play a full season, while Bohm has played all of 44 games at the major league level; so there's huge quantifiable risk associated with those picks but very little with Bryant. 

    I'm no Cubs or Bryant homer, but value is value.  And frankly, until Bryant actually puts together a bad season we all should be buying at his discounted price.

    • Like 2
  15. I'm buying all day.  If you look at his career, Bryant has never really been bad.  Including 2020, where he suffered from a low BABIP while other indicators remained the same, he averages .280/.380 - 31 - 91 - 111 - 7 in a full 162 game season.  Those are fantastic numbers deserving of a draft price almost half what it currently is, and there's simply nothing else like that at his current price.  He should handsomely outperform his current ADP and, IMO, should be one of the biggest values in this area.

    • Like 2
  16. Didn't see it posted here yet:

    Quote

    The Blue Jays and free-agent reliever Kirby Yates have agreed to a contract, pending a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted earlier Tuesday that the two sides were nearing a deal. Yates is a Beverly Hills Sports Council client.

    They added Chatwood as well earlier this week.

  17. Real life it's not looking bright, but there are a few fantasy items worth noting.

    Adam Frazier is dual eligible and a decent deep league bench play, especially in points leagues.

    Bryan Reynolds could bounce back and be a cheap late round AVG play.

    As @The Big Bat Theorynoted, Taillon should throw this year and can pad ratios.

    Jacob Stallings will get everyday playing time and averages a .262/.327 line over his career, so there's a warm body.

    and... uh... wow I'm looking this over and well, it's not good.  I'm not sure Hayes reaches 175 RBI+R this year and with an ADP of 137 he's looking way overpriced.  I mean Bryant is going 3 picks ahead of him and Urshela 15 behind.  I'd take both over Hayes as it stands right now.

    • Like 1
  18. 11 hours ago, tucker26 said:

    It's definitely a show me year for Kluber. It's foreseeable his velocity remains in decline and the park(s)/division won't help. If you can get him on a bargain bin deal it's not a bad gamble. He'll likely have some good games mixed in with some shellacking's and get you some W's. If the velocity returns a bit he'd probably slot in around a top 25, but not holding my breath. I'm expecting something like a 4+ era with a decent k/rate and whip and some W's. Or he gets hurt again and it's curtains. He's so cheap currently, (NFBC ADP 251 and 95 for P's) it's basically a late round gamble and we have seen old vets recently surge however they are outliers... ADP seems likely to improve now that he's signed and with the Yanks.

    Overall I agree but I'm not sure the velocity is that much of an issue.  It's not like he needs to gain several MPH on his fastball.  In 2018 his FB was 92.4 MPH and he provided 5.5 WAR.  In 2017 his FB was 92.9 MPH and he provided 7.2 WAR.  Yes it was above 93 before that but it's not like he wasn't effective with a FB in the 92 range.  In the limited 2019/2020 seasons it definitely dropped another tick but it didn't fall below 92, and it was only a 36.2 inning sample size due to the injuries.

    Historically he's either been Cy Young caliber or on the DL.  If Kluber is healthy and his fastball is there, I expect an ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.15, and a K/9 in the mid 9s.  It's just what he does when he's not on the DL and I need to see him prove me wrong before I count him out.  He's got enough command and prowess to deliver a huge season for his miserable ADP.  Honestly, would you rather have Nathan "my career ERA is 4.27" Eovaldi or Kluber? 

    • Like 1
  19. Value is there for sure.  For those who play in deeper leagues, OBP leagues, or points leagues, the guy has extra value.  He hit 40 doubles and 5 triples in 2019 and consistently walks >9%.  If he gets the K% down to normal ~20% he could provide very solid value at his current price.  I'd be happier if he was dealt somewhere where he could hit in the 2 hole as well.

  20. Perennial top 12 pick now going at #34?  Yes please all day.

    If you select his worst numbers in each category over his five full seasons (2015-2019) you get .287 - 37 - 110 - 97 - 2.  So that's the floor and oddly enough, if you toss in another 10 RBIs you've found Abreu's ceiling (Abreu is 4 years older as well).  Why they are going side by side is a mystery.  Huge value to be had here, maybe the biggest value pick in the top 50.

    • Like 1
  21. On 1/7/2021 at 10:16 AM, Sidearmer said:
    His ADP right now is mostly irrelevant, but to me this vaults him into consideration at end of drafts. He has decent pop (8-12 HR?) and good speed (20-30 SB?), which given every day playing time and elite positional eligibility, he is someone to consider.

    Roster Resource is projecting him as the lead off hitter as of now. Not sure if that will stick, but its another potential addition to his value.

    I hope to get some shares before Spring Training as his value will only continue to go up as the offseason progresses.

    Agreed.  Excellent late source of SBs and could be a bit of an "accumulator" as well if he hits in front of Naylor/JoRam/Reyes all year.  Steamer has him for .254/.310 - 13 - 60 - 61 - 23 and I'll take over on the runs but the rest looks like a fair call.

×
×
  • Create New...