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En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. I guess I'm fascinated by how projecting a line of .275/.330 - 28 - 83 - 99 - 18 is considered tempered (that's the 40% line with a .275 avg like you said). That line is exactly what I projected in the third post of this thread except -0.10 AVG, -2 HR, -2 RBI, -21 R, and -2 SB. We can agree the difference in HR, RBI, and SB is relatively meaningless, and I'll take the drop in AVG, so why the huge drop in runs? He averages 106 per year in his career... why would he score less hitting in a far more potent lineup?
  2. Really? Over 6 seasons Lindor averages .285/.346 - 29 - 86 - 106 - 21. In those six seasons he was second in Rookie of the Year votes, has 2 silver sluggers, and 4 all-star selections. Statcast is red, he's only 27, and now moves to a better lineup with much better protection. What needs tempering?
  3. Hendricks takes a good bullpen and makes it near elite. Hendricks-Bummer-Marshall is nails and Crochet and Heuer are both young, high upside relievers. Fry and Foster are serviceable with upside. I'm doing a quick scan now and I'd say CWS now has a top 3 bullpen with NYY and NYM. LAD, ATL, and StL are in the mix in the next tier. IMO the signing of Hendricks, while expensive, makes the team much more balanced. With bats for days and three excellent starters, having a good pen rounds out the squad for a title run.
  4. I'm no Mets homer but they have better hitters and starters than the Yankees, and a competitive bullpen. And on top of it, they don't have the issue of their two best hitters having serious injury concerns. I'd say the "Mets being the Mets" is losing its flavor and could leave quite a sour taste in the mouth come playoffs.
  5. Roster Resource has Lindor hitting 3rd, with Nimmo leading off and McNeil in the 2-hole. IIRC Lindor liked leading off in CLE however when I look at his splits batting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd through his career I don't see any numbers jump off the page in any direction. So hitting him 3rd doesn't seem to be a bad idea on an individual level. Then there's the team context: Nimmo and McNeil (and Conforto/Smith) are lefties while Lindor hits switch. Again, Lindor is very consistent from both sides so it looks like if they use him in the 3-hole it'll go L-L-S-L-R-L-R-R. If they put him at lead
  6. Hitting leadoff in front of McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Davis: 💰 .285/.345 - 30 - 85 - 120 - 20 with room in the HRs and SBs
  7. Mets going into the season with Lindor-McNeil-Alonso-Conforto-Davis-Smith-McCann and DeGrom-Carrasco-Stroman and looking at SD like
  8. Freeman is arguably the best pure hitter in the game. You could give him Covid and take away his bat and he'd still hit .250.
  9. I am in agreement for all redraft leagues. I'm worried the K rate climbs back up to 30%, the BABIP stays normal, and we find ourselves with a .285/.350 guy with 25 HRs and 20 SBs. That's a tragic scenario but I don't have those fears with Soto, Betts, Trout, or even Acuna.
  10. Franmil is an absolute steal this season at #146. @Sidearmer's points are well noted, and in addition I think there's huge value to be found in the "DH-only" discount. If we comfortably project him for .250 - 30 - 100 - 90, those numbers are equivalent to Chapman (ADP #112), Moncada (#83), and Baez (#71). So you basically get the same guy at half the price due to the fact that he only qualifies at UTIL. 👍
  11. I like Gray's career numbers as a good estimate for him in 2021: 3.54 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.48 K/9. He's very consistent with ~50% GB and seems healthy so the innings should be there. I'd place him as a high-end SP2 and would be happy with him at an ADP of #64.
  12. Moncada looks like Chapman, Bryant, and Donaldson, only going 30+ picks before. 25-20 HRs, ~200 counting stats, a handful of SBs, and a .260/.330 line at pick 86? I likely won't have him on any teams.
  13. I like him a lot this year, much more than Bauer/Buehler going nearby. He'll get the innings and keep the walks low, and SD has a good pen so wins should be preserved more than ChC. I think his career average is a good floor for 2021: 3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11.12 K/9. Solid ace numbers.
  14. Love the kid but his draft price is absolute insanity. Bogaerts down at #36 like
  15. The point I was making is that---generally speaking---there are better options at this point in the draft. Keeper leagues I feel the same; Walsh is 27 while Walker is 29 and Bell is 28. Playing time I agree with @Sidearmer although Roster Resource has him in the strong side platoon with Ward and Pujols at first. I think Walsh is far more exciting than those two so should see 500 ABs as the Angels have to make a run soon. As a player I don't really have a strong opinion; I was just looking at the situation from a fantasy baseball value perspective. No disrespect to the guy or anyone wh
  16. Hard pass because I don't see the value. His ADP is #179 so you're taking him as a CI or UTIL. Who else can you get at that pick? Bell and Walker are literally the two picks ahead of him, two guys who have already done what we hope Walsh might do. Looks like he'll likely K 25%+ and BB around 5% so... what are we looking at in terms of projections? .260/.315 - 25 - 80 - 80? Not seeing the value at that pick when you can take Donaldson 6 picks later or Hoskins 11 picks before.
  17. OFs going around Whit in drafts: #35 Robert #39 Jimenez #43 Merrifield #46 Ozuna #48 Marte #51 Judge #52 Biggio I like Jimenez, Merrifield, and Marte the most out of this bunch. Looks like he's pretty fairly valued.
  18. He can play all three but saw the vast majority of his time in LF over his career; doesn't look like he's that great a defender. Fantasy-wise he looks like Alex Verdugo but at no cost. Could be BA and SB help late in drafts or a good points league bench bat.
  19. I'm not sure what you're point is here; I never said TB would have the best rotation in the game, just that they have a near full team of prospects many of whom are very good. It feels like you're nitpicking. SD's situation can be nitpicked too: Clev is FA is 2023. 2024 SD will see Darvish, Snell, and Lamet be FAs. 2025 it's Paddack. So the Pads have effectively two-three years to win a world series. Machado can opt out in 2023, Pham is FA in 2022, Myers in 2022, and Tatis will be looking for payday. Can't pay them all. CHW see Giolito FA in 2024, Lynn and Keuchel in 2022, Ceas
  20. I just went over to Roster Resource to see what the future looks like and Tampa has practically a whole new team coming up: Franco (SS) - 2021 Brujan/Walls/Jones/Edwards (IF) - 2021/2022 Hernandez/Hunt (C) - 2022/2023 J Lowe (OF) - 2021 Patino/McClanahan/Baz (SP) - 2021/2022 All of these guys are ranked high within the org and most are ranked overall. As to current players, Adames, Aroz, Mejia, and Meadows are 25, B Lowe is 26, Glasnow is 27, McKay is 25, Honeywell Jr is 25, and the bullpen is pretty dirty in its own right at this moment. 2 years from now t
  21. I rank by position and carry three values: the ranking of the league I'm drafting in (so I can know when the player's name will appear on the draft board), NFC ADP (so I can know generally when they are being drafted), and my target round (for a handful of players at each position I'm targeting). I don't populate this sheet until much closer to the draft date; for now I just make notes on particular players I like.
  22. Dude has Altuve/Tucker/Bregman batting in front of him. 120 RBIs is going to happen, 35+ bombs is going to happen, so for me everything comes down to the K%. If he can keep it in the low 20s and keep his BB% up around 15%, he'll hit close to .300. God forbid he cut the K% down further and we've got vintage Miguel Cabrera with more power. 👀
  23. I like Steamer's projection but will give him more counting stats, so: .272/.330 - 33 - 120 - 90 - 2 He's being drafted at #34 in the group of Arenado, Bogaerts, and Bregman. No way I pass on Arenado or Bogaerts there. Looking deeper, you can collect Olson at #88, Rizzo at #97, Goldschmidt at #101, Bohm at #102, Hoskins at #168, and Walker/Bell at #177/#178. There's really good value in some of these picks, Rizzo and Hoskins especially.
  24. Don't forget or count out Betances. Dude was legit one of the most dominant RPs every season he's played (2014-2018). Injured in 2019 and 2020, only 32, and is an afterthought for most folks this season. Look for 60+ IP, ERA under 3, WHIP under 1.2, strong Ks, a ton of HLDs, and the possibility for saves as well.
  25. There's a lot of guys vying for CF, 2B, and 1B in COL: Hilliard, McMahon, Fuentes, Hampson, Rodgers, Desmond... that's a lot of mouths to feed. I fear the playing time just won't be there to make him worthwhile in all but the deepest leagues.
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