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En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Career: 9.7% BB% and 23.6% K%. 2020: 20.3% BB% (!!!) and 20.3% K%. Dude has always had the power, he hit 30 HR in 2016 with TB. His BABIP this season isn't insane at .341 though his career mark is .290, so he's not getting crazy lucky but he is luckier than usual. Hard hit rate is up at 53.5% vs career 34.4% and he's hitting a crazy 51.2% of his balls to center and 27.9% line-drives. So it looks like he's seeing the ball real well and when he makes contact it's right back up the middle and hard. Honestly I have no idea what happened but he's 4 for 6 tonight with 2 home runs
  2. Winker is legit. He's a .300/.400/.500 hitter with a great eye. The power is something new and makes him relevant beyond OBP, points, and deeper leagues. I don't think he's a 40 HR guy, though, 20-30 HRs seem reasonable going forward. Couple that with a great AVG and OBP and good counting stats and he puts up a really good floor. SBs is all that's lacking and they probably aren't going to come. As I said before:
  3. As far as I remember going into this season everything hinged on him getting that K rate down. All the other peripherals were in order, he was just going too deep into counts, passing on good pitches, then swinging at crap. Honestly everything else in his profile looks very similar this season, perhaps with the sole exception of he's hitting to opposite field more than center now. But that K rate: 2019: 28.6% 🤮 2020: 19.7% 💪 Dude is money. And when Bichette comes back he will be money plus more money. And when Vlad Jr stops hitting so many ground balls and starts driving,
  4. I don't watch CLE games but I will say that when I buy a first rounder I'm not buying amazing first round production every week of the season. What I'm buying is a talent floor that is higher than the rest of the player pool. All players have slumps, some extended, some just have down years. But a guy goes in the first round because when he, such as Lindor right now or JoRam last season, goes through an extended funk I have reason to believe that he will not only come out of it, but that when he does he will produce really well.
  5. Re: the SD closer situation, keep an eye on universally un-owned Matt Strahm. Why, you say? Career as SP: 106.2 IP, 5.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.86 HR/9, 24.1% K%, .267 AVG Career as RP: 131.9 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 0.97 HR/9, 26.6% K%, .194 AVG Dude was a good prospect, has a four-pitch mix, and is pegged as a long-relief guy. Yet... he has not pitched over 2 innings in a game this season and routinely goes for 1.1 or 1.2. Yates is done for the year, Pomeranz is having shoulder issues and has an injury history, Pagan is crapping the bed, Patino has walked as many as he's struck
  6. And it's "worse than expencted." Sun, Aug 16 According to Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun, Bo Bichette's right knee injury is "worse than expected" and could keep him out until mid-September. Advice: Awful news. Bichette was placed on the injured list Sunday after spraining his right knee during Saturday's game in Buffalo against the visiting Rays. The young shortstop had a stellar .356/.387/.678 batting line with five home runs, 13 RBI, four stolen bases, and 11 runs scored through 62 plate appearances (13 games) this season. Joe Panik and Santiago Espinal appear likely to
  7. Hoskins likely isn't getting benched. He's only 27 and is walking more (24.6% this year vs 15.5% career) and striking out less (17.5% vs 23.2%). EV is right on pace with career lines (90.1) and he's hitting the ball hard 50% of the time. I mean the dude is hitting second in the lineup and has more walks (14) than hits (6), his OBP is .404. Things just aren't connecting after 13 games; just a slump. Actually looks like a great buy low IMO. Look for Bohm to share 3B with Segura while Segura moves over to 2B to relieve Kingery. Platoon likely incoming with these three.
  8. Additional value: he qualifies at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF in Yahoo, which is huge this season especially with teams having a lot of PPDs.
  9. All I'm saying is if Pressly comes out and Ks three dudes in 12 pitches for a shut-down save it'll be crickets here. Baseball players aren't machines; they need time to figure things out. Yes it's a shortened season but this isn't some rando sub for Osuna, it's one of the most dominant relievers the past 300+ games. Give the dude a chance.
  10. I just looked him up. Basically he's 29, has been around for 7 years in the majors on and off, and has hit absolutely terribly. Like, real bad. Like career .209 AVG, .291 OBP bad. This said, he's only seen 2 seasons of regular play (2018, 2019) and even those years he had under 250 ABs. In Stassi's favor is his pitch-framing ability, which I knew absolutely nothing about until reading the following article at PitcherList. Looks like he's really quite the framer and if this is true then it means he should see steady playing time. With C where it is this year I think he's worth
  11. Pressly needs to be given a longer leash than 0.2 innings. I mean... seriously people. I love this thread.
  12. All valid points, and more so in a shortened season. The recommendation of buying guys who have more games to make up was in regards to their deflated totals, not so much increased PT. A guy like Villar has a mere 16 ABs, almost 30 less than most and not enough to accumulate the beginnings of the HR/SB totals he was drafted for. I think he appears less valuable as a result. More generally, usually I'm trading for production value per game per the remainder of the season. Guys I labeled "hot hands" are those I see showing less value going forward than they currently hold. Guys I'm bu
  13. BUY LOW Guys who have not seen a lot of ABs due to the team COVID issues, while they themselves have been healthy: PHI: Realmuto, Cutch, Hoskins, Harper MIA: Villar, Dickerson TOR: Bichette, Vlad, Biggio STL: Edman Pure hitters who have been hurt by a small sample size: Torres, Bryant, Meadows, Hiura, Ketel, Vlad Jr, Bichette, Olson/Chapman, Bregman. SELL HIGH Wil Myers: dude isn't going to hit .282. Will be lucky to hit .200 when the season ends. Christian Vazquez: C is an absolute hellhole and people pay way too much for guys like this (see Gary Sanchez).
  14. I already bought Rosenthal and think you should too.
  15. Keep an eye on Trevor Rosenthal (RP - KC). The closer/setup situation there (Kennedy/Holland) isn't exactly lights-out and the rest of the pen is unexciting. Rosenthal, you may recall, was an absolute beast from 2013-2017 when he racked up 121 saves with STL. He was hurt in 2018, sucked in 2019 with WAS and DET, and now no one cares about him. Then he gets high praise in camp: "Rosenthal separated himself as one of the team's best relievers in camp, according to general manager Dayton Moore, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports. (4/10/2020)" So far he's thrown only 2
  16. What would the lineup look like with Lindor hitting 3rd? Mercado-JoRam-Lindor-Santana-Franmil? Mercado-Hernandez-Lindor-JoRam-Santana?
  17. Early 2020 sleeper mid-RP: Dellin Betances (RP - NYM). Career 14.64% K%, 2.36 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. Throws a hard four-seamer usually in the high 90s which he pairs with a curve and slider. Injury last season was to his achilles, nothing related to his arm, and he slots in before Lugo and Diaz in the pecking order. ADP is #369, so free, but in HLDs leagues or SV+HLD he may go before the last round. 60 IP: 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 75 K is very doable IMO with room in the Ks. Should get 20+ HLDs pretty easily.
  18. Small sample size but Schwarber really, really likes hitting 4th. 4th (68 PA): .393/.441/.787 - 25% K% - 8.8% BB% - .393 ISO - .475 BABIP Everywhere else (1816 PA): .229/.336/.478 - 28% K% - 12.1% BB% - .249 ISO - .264 BABIP There's no way he maintains that BABIP or those ridiculous numbers, but he seems to performs better. With the Cubs announcing that the top 2 will be Bryant/Rizzo, it seems likely Baez will hit 3rd and Schwarber 4th. He won't hit .300, but he may get to .260 - 35 - 100 - 90 with room in the HRs and RBIs which is pretty nice at #147. He's going around Frami
  19. I'm buying Buster this year for sure and .300 is doable but dude has hit 7, 5, 12, 14, and 19 HR, over the past 5 seasons beginning last year. He has only hit more than 20 HRs twice in 9 seasons. Love the boldness of this call.
  20. I don't see the bullpen taking a lot of wins from DeGrom, 15 seems very doable this season. 9th inning - Diaz. Dude is filthy and suffered from a very weird HR/FB issue last season. 8th inning - Lugo. Converted starter, stats as RP: 178 IP, 2.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 28.3% K%. Absolute filth. 7th inning - Betances. Suffered an achilles injury and missed last season. Career filth thrower: 14.64 K%, 2.36 ERA/1.04 WHIP. Mid innings - Familia. Solid middle reliever (career 3.16 ERA/1.29 WHIP) who saw his HR/FB and HR/9 double last year. Has some control issues but he's 4t
  21. Workman is currently being drafted in the middle of a big clump of closers from ~#130 to ~#170. In forty picks we see the likes of Giles, Kimbrel, Smith, Iglesias, Colome, Robles, Workman, and Leclerc go off the board. Pagan, Bradley, Cmart, Kennedy, and Doolittle go in the next thirty picks. (Doolittle looks like good value here btw). I think Workman belongs in the latter bunch alongside a guy like Bradley or Kennedy. As others have mentioned he has a ton of issues that make me very unconvinced he will repeat. I'd much rather grab Giles, Kimbrel, Robles, or Leclerc. If I missed on
  22. There may not have been a thread because 30-30 is in the bank and everything else is gravy. He's a consensus top 3, if not a consensus top pick. .280/.360 - 30 - 90 - 100 - 30 looks like the floor, which is silly. Hard to predict how high he'll fly, though 50-50 seems like a pipe dream to me.
  23. He's basically Victor Robles lite. Steamer Robles: 609 PA, .262/.326 - 17 - 71 - 71 - 27 (6.4% BB, 21% K) Steamer Reyes: 522 PA, .273/.308 - 10 - 51 - 58 - 15 (4.5% BB, 19% K) Good value late in the draft.
  24. Too many Ks, too many ground balls. Both are fixable issues and the kid is young, has a guaranteed starting job, and is crazy talented. Deeper leagues he's a flier for a bench spot, shallow leagues he's a watch list guy. Keeper/dynasty I would expect him to be owned though his price may be deflated at the moment.
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