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En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Oh, and Joey Votto punches father time right in his wrinkly old face and goes .300 - 25 - 90 - 110 - 5, leading the Reds to the playoffs with his performance and everlasting charm.
  2. Christian Walker (1B - ARI) finishes as the #3 first baseman in standard 5x5 fantasy behind Bellinger/Freeman. He does so by cutting his K% and going .280 - 35 - 130 - 100. On a related note, Ketel Marte becomes the top 2B in fantasy in all formats. He shows no weaknesses and puts up a line of .300 - 30 - 100 - 110 - 15. In spite of these two amazing performances and Marte/Escobar/Peralta being very solid, the D-Backs fail to make the playoffs as their bullpen implodes and starters can't seem to string enough quality outings together to generate momentum.
  3. He had a BABIP/AVG/OBP of: 2017: .328/.279/.384 2018: .289/.243/.350 2019: .290/.257/.363 Looks like they move in tandem. I'm not sure how one raises one's BABIP, but if it jumps at all then he becomes a rock solid 4-tool player in standard 5x5.
  4. Just for funsies: Matt Chapman (ADP 88), .257, 34 HR, 95 R, 97 RBI, 3 SB. Or better still: Josh Donaldson (ADP 99), .267, 36 HR, 100 R, 103 RBI, 4 SB. Or if we really want to do it: Justin Turner (ADP 168!), .281, 26 HR, 86 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB Vlad Jr (ADP 57), .295, 25 HR, 86 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB
  5. I love this guy, amazing control, but the IP limit is going to hurt his value for most leagues. He threw around 110 innings total in 2019 across 3 levels, and around 80 innings total in 2018 over 3 levels. 150 IP seems like the max for 2020?
  6. Everyone is betting on Nick Anderson but despite his amazing performance he got zero (0) save chances last year. On the other hand, Castillo and Alvarado both got many opps and both have filthy stuff. I love Anderson as a guy to add Ks and bring down ratios, but betting on him being the closer in TB is the definition of chasing saves. A guy like Betances could return Anderson K/ERA/WHIP and is basically free in almost all leagues.
  7. 26 yrs old, leading off with Mercado/Santana/JoRam/Framil behind, 162 game avg of .288/.347 - 29 - 87 - 108 - 21. That's the floor. .290/.350 - 30 - 85 - 110 - 25 is very reasonable and achievable with room all around. I see him as the clear 6th best hitter on the board. Whether or not you want him 6th depends on how you value SPs that early (Cole/DeGrom) and how you feel about Story. As to him vs. Story, Lindor has better plate discipline and has played with a more reasonable BABIP (so I see less chance of regression).
  8. LaStella will get time at 1B and Fletcher will be at 2B. Other than that he'll fill in the OF whenever Upton needs a day off or if Joc is sitting due to a platoon split. Yeah, hard to see 500 ABs but he'll definitely be in the super-utility role.
  9. I'm all in. This is the floor: 542 PA, .255/.327 - 23 - 83 - 68 - 24, 13.7% K%, 9.6% BB%, .256 BABIP (<- last year's #s) Dude's hard contact % has increased every year since 2015. Posts elite K/BB and shows great plate discipline. Over 3k career plate appearances, his avg line is: .280/.351 - 23 - 82 - 95 - 25. I'll take that in the second round all day. He has top 3 potential.
  10. Everything you say is true, and indeed it is a matter of preference, but I think the sample size outweighs the Statcast numbers. Many players have come out hot like Hiura, backed by Statcast numbers and all, only to fade quickly. Far fewer have done what Albies has. But yes, arguments can and will be made both ways. Something that I can't figure out is why Bichette is 30 spots behind these two...
  11. I think you have to go Albies > Hiura in a dynasty. Albies has 1630 MLB ABs under his belt with a clean 16.2% K%. His BABIP over this period is low at .307. He's hit .279/.332 which has room to grow. Hiura has a mere 348 MLB ABs with a terrible 30.7% K%. His BABIP is unsustainable at .402. He's hit .303/.368 which should come down to earth. They are the same age. Whether or not they had similar prospect profiles, Albies has consistently shown his ability against MLB pitching while Hiura has not.
  12. I agree entirely. The issue for me early was playing time, but looking it over there's not a whole lot of other 3B options for the Rays. Wendle and Robertson are it and neither offer the consistent power/line-drive bat that Yandy does. 100 RBIs and 90 Rs are there for the taking with a full season. I think he's a great sleeper.
  13. Bummer for Josh Rojas who has literally no path to playing time now. On the other hand, Dbacks lineup is looking rather solid from start to finish.
  14. BUY: Joey Votto (1B - CIN) Ok not for your starting 1B obviously but for a UTIL spot or definitely a CI spot he should handily outperform his ADP of #261. Steamer has him for .270/.382 - 23 - 76 - 91 - 4. He's going to hit 2nd in front of Suarez, Moose, and now Castellanos. 100 runs are practically guaranteed. There will always be talk of his age and the fact that he's had two seasons that left folks wondering, but he gets on base with the best of them and is one of the smartest players in the game. Reds are making a run for it this year and Joey knows what he needs to do.
  15. Hard pass. 30% K%, 5% BB% means OBP will be terrible, around .300, AVG should also be mediocre, around .250 as BABIP regresses. Surrounding lineup isn't terrible but isn't great, maybe 90 runs max, 75 RBIs max. Then there's his health which as @meh2 rightfully notes, is pretty unreliable. Or, rather, what is reliable is that he won't play more than 125 games. So .250/.300 - 15 - 75 - 90 - 45 at ADP #39? Maybe, looks like a poor man's Trea Turner. I'll pass for Ketel Marte who is at #44 as this is clearly a case of SB premium. Oh and @Sidearmer is spot on that Villar is sitting
  16. Mallex's AVG is tied to his BABIP: 2016: .238 AVG, .302 BABIP with the Braves 2017: .270 AVG, .347 BABIP with the Rays 2018: .296 AVG, .366 BABIP with the Rays 2019: .227 AVG, .302 BABIP with the Mariners Furthermore, @Cmilne23 is right that his home (.288 AVG, .360 BABIP, 70 SB, 16 CS) road (.229 AVG, .303 BABIP, 48 SB, 18 CS) splits are atrocious. I can't say whether or not his BABIP will rebound, but I agree that he's a cheap source of steals. Beyond that, you're looking at a guy you probably want to bench half the season.
  17. I think Donaldson will rise. He's at #103 right now (around Moose and Escobar) and last season, with injury concerns and lack of "proof" that he was back, he was in the #70s as I recall. Better situation now, proved he still mashes, better park, I think he'll jump a tier and hang around Chapman, McNeil, and Muncy. Bo Bichette should rise as well. He's currently #74 while Hiura is at #43. Those two should even out as Bichette is a much better bet to go 20-20 than Hiura while still offering .270 AVG and 180 RBI+R.
  18. Yeah. A's will be starting Fiers, Manaea, Montas, Luzardo, and Bassitt. Montas could have the best season of the bunch, especially given that Luzardo will be on an IP limit. EDIT: Just saw that Puk will head into the season as a starter too, though he'll also be on an IP limit. 6-man rotation?
  19. Carlos Santana ADP #143 so not very comparable. Steamer for Braun (age 36): 532 AB, .268/.329 - 25 - 80 - 69 - 9, ADP #237 Steamer for Peralta (age 32): 605 AB, .280/.342 - 22 - 77 - 77 - 3, ADP #258 So Braun is going 20 picks ahead of Peralta and you lose .12 BA, gain 3 HRs, 3 RBIs, lose 11 runs, and gain 6 steals? I'm not seeing your point here. Again, this is a buy/fade thread. If you want to fade Peralta that's fine, just say so.
  20. This is really case specific though. If instead you drafted a bunch of busts/injuries, you'd be really happy to have a guy like Peralta who is super consistent. So your point is that you drafted well. Ok, but my point is that Peralta is a great value at his current draft price. Not really the same thing.
  21. Buy: David Peralta (OF - ARI). Current NFC ADP #258. Was hurt last year but is a doubles machine, slated to hit 2nd behind Marte and in front of Escobar and Walker. 162 game average: .290/.346 - 21 - 80 - 80 - 7. For 2020, I give him .290/.346 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 3.
  22. This link has graphs and GIFs for the same article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-im-excited-for-dansby-swansons-2020/
  23. I am fading Goldy. His K% is increasing, BB% decreasing, and it looks like his ~.300 AVG was due to a ~.350 BABIP. That sunk to .303 last season (and a .260 AVG to go with it). Lineup surrounding him does not look strong at all which means pitchers may not feel the need to walk him as often. Would definitely take Bell/Abreu over him. Would even consider Mancini or C Santana at a later point.
  24. @meh2 would you be willing to give us a tentative projection? I like the narrative here but do you see 150+ IP?
  25. Items that stand out on a semi-deeper look: 1st Half: 10.8% BB%, 20.4% K%, .315 BABIP, 2.1% IFFB%, 0.9% IFH%, 10.9% soft% 2nd Half: 14.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, .241 BABIP, 13.3% IFFB%, 7.6% IFH%, 17.2% soft% So he walked more, struck out less, got pretty unlucky, but hit the ball softer. His HR/FB crashed too from 28.4% to 16.7%. Just looks like he was on another level, one that couldn't be sustained, and regression to the mean hit hard. At the end of the first half he was on pace for like 50 HR, 150 RBIs so he was bound to fall back to earth. .275/.365 - 30 - 100 - 80 - 0
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