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En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. 👍 Leading off in front of Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, Rosario, Garver, Arraez, Sano, Buxton? 10% BB%, 16% K%, .340 OBP? There's 100 runs. 20-35 HRs? 75 RBIs? .244 BABIP should rise a bit. Toss in a handful of SBs... .260/.340 - 25 - 75 - 110 - 5 seems like a rather reasonable projection to me, with room in the HRs and RBIs. And at #144 that's a steal. The only issue is if Arraez, who is an on-base machine, gets bumped up to leadoff at some point.
  2. The uncertainty associated with him makes me want to pass at #132 (13th 2B off the board by NFC ADP). Newman is sitting there at #195 and has a high floor, ol' Cesar Hernandez is hiding at #283, and Segura will be 2B this year and can be had at #186. None of them have the raw power, but Biggio K'd at nearly 30% and if the ball isn't juiced, who knows? A line of .240/.340 - 15 - 65 - 90 - 15 doesn't look great in the 10th round. Cesar Hernandez can do that and add 30 points to the BA. 🤷‍♂️
  3. 2019 1st half: 97 IP, 5.01 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 10.30 K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 1.86 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP 2019 2nd half: 81.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 13 K/9, 0.77 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, 0.81 WHIP I don't see any huge discrepancies in the subtler stats, so it looks like a control issue. He just locked down his walks and cut down the HRs.
  4. I do too, but will the playing time be there? He's basically platooning with Pujols at 1B and Fletcher at 2B, though Fletcher could see some time in RF. Most projections have him at less than 450 ABs... but yeah, the price is right at the moment (#281) and if he should end up leading off all year then .285/.340 - 20 - 60 - 100 here we come.
  5. Buy: Jose Ramirez, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Bo Bichette, Mike Soroka, Trey Mancini, Andrew Benintendi, Josh Donaldson, Zach Wheeler, Edwin Diaz. Fade: Javy Baez, Keston Hiura, Fernando Tatis Jr, Jonathan Villar, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Luis Robert, Yuli Guerriel, Danny Santana.
  6. Personally I'm not buying Gallegos and I love buying middle relievers. He doesn't walk a lot of guys which is great but his K rate isn't amazing and his price is way too high. I mean you can pick up Pressly, J James, Munoz, Betances, Clase, Ginkel, Poche, Castillo, Pomeranz, etc... for next to nothing or for literally nothing. Why pay mid-round price for a mid-RP who may or may not close, and if he does, may or may not be good?
  7. All the sites and experts certainly seem to think Gallegos will close should CMart get injured or move to the rotation. Gant could be a darkhorse though I'm not sold on his stuff and his second half left a lot to be desired. Then there's Andrew Miller who was gold for years but had a couple rough seasons (surge in BABIP, falling LOB%, surge in Hard%) but still suppresses HRs and could turn it around. Also Hicks should be back at some point later in the season no?
  8. NFBC #106 isn't that much of a discount. His low of #162 is, so it's a wait and see how this unfolds and where he turns up in each individual draft. I'd pass on Carrasco for Wheeler/Fried/Hendricks who are currently going later, but I'd take him over Urias/Boyd/Minor, so that puts me buying around #145.
  9. 2019 rookie season: 13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.45 FIP, 7.32 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 51.2% GB% Amazing season from a former first round pick, acknowledged with an All Star appearence, 2nd ballot Rookie of the Year, and 6th in Cy Young voting. I watched him pitch in SF and he carved up a terrible lineup like he was bored. Giants announcers had very positive things to say (mature pitcher, Maddux-esque). And yet, Steamer has him projected for serious regression: 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.08 FIP, 1.16 HR/9 In 2020 he has Acuna/Albies/Freeman behind him with question marks to
  10. Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections. I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias. That's all. As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players. Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil... No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs. The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price. All I was sayi
  11. I like Hiura a lot, but the value seems crazy inflated right now. 2019 .402 BABIP 😮 2019 30.7% K% 🤢 It may be, as folks have mentioned, that his K rate normalizes and his A+ hit tool is on display, but the same could be said for Luis Urias. In fact: Hiura (age 23): Hit 50/60, GamePower 45/60, RawPower 60/60, Speed 45/45, FutureValue 60 Urias (age 22): Hit 50/65, GamePower 40/45, RawPower 20/35, Speed 50/50, FutureValue 55 Definite difference in raw power and game power, but the rest is awful similar. Also Urias has a significantly lower K% and a higher BB%. So
  12. I'm less confident about playing time at the moment but I intend to keep an eye on the situation. Odor is always on the verge of being terrible. Frazier is a career .243 hitter and will platoon at 1B against lefties, leaving 3B open for Solak. Solak could also find time in the OF I guess, but Gallo/Santana/Calhoun looks decent. So it looks like unless Ordor or Frazier s**** the bed, Solak is left on the short side of a platoon. Bummer, because I really like his potential.
  13. This. Kluber's 162 game average season is: 16-10, 3.16 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9. Those are almost Kershaw numbers. ADP is currently #88, with a low of #124. I'm buying at the current price, but if he can fall beyond 100 there's huge value here. I mean Paxton is only 2 years younger and has a much larger injury history and people seem pretty confident with him at #92. Not seeing the logic there.
  14. Well the Frazier signing for Texas means that Solak looks like a bench/utility bat, and likely won't garner enough ABs to merit fantasy value. I mean, with Choo at DH, Frazier at 3B, and Gallo/Santana/Calhoun in the OF, I don't see 400+ ABs for Solak unless an injury should befall one of the above, or a terrible drop in production. Bummer.
  15. Lifelong Giants fan here and I had to pause at your 25-30 HR projection because I asked myself: when was the last time any Giants player hit over 25 HRs? Answer: Pence hit 27 in 2013. Huff hit 26 in 2010. Then Bonds in 2007 but we'll leave that era out. So since the Bonds era that's two times in 11 years, or 18% of the time, that any member of the Giants has hit over 25 HRs. Digging deeper, no one has hit 30 HRs for this team since 2004(!) when Bonds hit 45 at age 39 😲 and, I kid you not, hit .362 with a .609 OBP with a 37.6% BB% and a 6.6% K% 😳. Seriously, I had to read th
  16. Very possible that he doesn't hit 30 steals, and I agree that expecting less is probably wisest. This said, even at last season's pace he projects to 12 SBs. The year before in the minors he stole 15 in a mere 244 PA. In 2018 he stole 32 in almost 600 PAs. But you're right, minor numbers often don't translate, even with talents like this. So cut the steals in half, and give him .275/.330 - 20 - 65 - 110 - 15.
  17. I get a Whit Merrifield vibe, with more power. He hit 11 HRs in 212 PAs last season, with a freakish 18 doubles. Steamer has him at .275/.328 with 22 HR, 74 RBI, 93 R, 24 SB. I think Steamer is generally pretty conservative and Bo is leading off for TOR with Biggio, Vlad Jr, and Gurriel Jr behind him. Barring injury, 100 runs seems like a lock and he showed 30+ SB speed pretty regularly in the minors so I'll say: .275/.330 - 20 - 65 - 110 - 30 with room in the HRs. I feel like he's oddly underrated right now being drafted at #74 after Machado and right near Semien. Curiously
  18. Arenado is a machine, but a machine that likes Coors Field. He has nearly the same amount of AB/PAs home/away: Career at home: .324/.380/.615, 8.2% BB, 13.8% K, .327 BABIP, 129 HR, 446 RBI, 373 R Career on road: .265/.323/.476, 7.7% BB, 16.6% K, .276 BABIP, 98 HR, 288 RBI, 253 R So if we're talking re-draft for 2020 I don't care; I'm buying Arenado as I always do: as a super-solid machine who is one of the most secure floor picks in the later half of the first round. If we're talking 2021+ I'd consider shopping him to see what I could get in return.
  19. A perennial top 30 guy for years but now has an ADP of 60? I'm definitely buying at this discount. He can be counted on for .285/.385 with 25 HRs and 180 RBI+R pretty easily.
  20. I don't see much of a change for Rendon fantasy-wise with this move; still an excellent hitter. On the other hand, Trout and whoever leads off for LAA really benefit from this.
  21. Segura is an excellent value pick this year. NFC ADP is #191 right now, right around DeJong and well behind Rosario and Polanco. I think that since SS is so deep this season, and that Segura's name has been around a while coupled with a down year, he's dropping off people's radar. The price is right given that he could outproduce seven SS ahead of him at nearly 100 picks later. If he gets 2B eligibility then it's even better as that position is much, much more shallow. Definitely targeting.
  22. With Narvaez out of the picture and Murphy being the primary C for SEA, he'll likely break 20 HRs. The real issue isn't the power, it's the 30%+ K% and the abysmal AVG that will come with it. He pulls the ball around 50% of the time too. I just can't see him hitting anything above .250, likely lower in the .225 range. Steamer has him at .217 with 19 HRs FWIW.
  23. 22 years old, he should start the season at SS with Huira at 2B. RosterResource has him hitting 7th (may end up 6th) so his counting stats may not be the best. Steamer says 601 PA: 16 - 61 - 72 - 5 - .251/.333 I think those are pretty fair numbers with definite upside in AVG/OBP. Also, keep an eye on him in points leagues and deeper stat leagues as he should deliver good BBs and 2Bs.
  24. I think you're spot on. Steamer is very high on Lamet with 175 IP, 3.75 ERA, 11.33 K/9, 3.57 BB/9. San Diego looks better offensively this year and should put up enough runs for some Ws. I think as you mentioned it's all about the innings limit but he's definitely got the stuff. ADP is #128 though, a good buy if he goes 175 IP, not so much if he goes 100.
  25. I'm afraid I don't see the playing time with Meadows/Pham/Kiermaier stapled into the OF. You'd be betting on O'Grady translating those skills to the majors and an injury. This aside, definitely someone to keep an eye on as these are the types of moves that the Rays seem to continually cash in on.
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