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AlexxelA

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Posts posted by AlexxelA

  1. Please help me with my first few picks strategy!  I tried to make it understandable and simple enough!  It's good to get some outside advice so I don't get tunnel vision on this.  

    H2H categories 6x5 (R,RBI,HR,SB,AVG,OPS - W,SV,K,ERA,WHIP)  C, 1, 2, ss, 3, 3 OF, 2 Util, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 6 BN   Keepers:  Acuna, Soto, Bichette, Rendon, deGrom, Bauer

    I have odd numbered draft picks and am looking for help of who to target in the top 32 picks.  After that I wait 25 spots for my next choice, so keeping it hopefully simple.

    Picks:  2, 9, 12, 31, 32 (aka 62, 69, 72, 91, 92)

    Top 40 available in Yahoo ADP order (draft board drafters will see):  

    21. Giolito, 32.  Robert, 34.  S Marte,  38.  Woodruff,  41.  C Seagar, 43. T. Anderson, 46.  K Tucker,  51.  Arozerena,  55.  E Suarez,  57.  Voit,  59.  Gallen,  60.  Maeda,  62.  Burnes,  64.  Rizzo,  66.  Castellanos,  68.  Liam Hendricks, 69. Cruz, 71.  Lynn, 73.  K Marte, 74. Conforto, 75.  Carassco, 76.  T Hernandez, 77. Gray, 78. Altuve, 81. Blackmon, 82. Stanton, 83.  Hendricks, 85. Berrios, 86. Meadows, 87. Greinke, 88. M. Olson, 89. Karinchak, 90. K Bryant, 91.  Ryu, 92. E Diaz, 93.  S Perez, 94. B. Lowe, 95. Biggio, 96. Wheeler, 97. Myers, 98. Pham, 99. Bundy, 100. Musgrove, 101. Luzardo, 102. E Rosario, 103. R. Iglesias, 104. Lamet, 105. Gurriel Jr.

    *BOLD = P

    What strategy would you use for these picks?  

     

  2. 46 minutes ago, Words said:

    Thanks guys. I have a choice in mind, but I didn't way to bias the responses. I also thought this was an interesting discussion beyond just my situation. 

    I think you should go with your gut and who you want the most.  Nobody knows which of those guys will be the best, they are all great.  Choose who you want to have  on your team.

  3. On 3/4/2021 at 7:50 PM, HOOTIE said:

    Not trying to pick a fight, and I commend you for replying with your thoughts.

    But by that theory, you could pick Grandal, because he might be the 2nd best catcher?

     

    I think my theory is limited to similar ADPs and common sense.  I'd take Freeman over ADP 8-12 guys, usually.  I'd take Albies in the 30s over the 10th best OF that may be ADP 29-35.  I'm not taking Albies if Trevor Story or something is there as well.  I don't typically view C as having "elite" players, though the top is probably going to be a 5th rounder.  I don't view Yasmani Grandal as elite, Yahoo has him ADP 133 now.  If it's Buster Posey in his prime or something and he's a 2nd or 3rd rounder, definitely trying to take him.   

    • Like 1
  4. 12 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

    Actually the first part is not true. You should always go for the best values and unless your league doesn’t allow it, streaming hitters is very effective. 
     

    That said, I would go for Freeman or Jose Ramirez here, followed by Yelich and finally Story.

    Many people who are successful have different strategies, so you can't say one way is wrong and one is right.  I can only argue for my beliefs that have worked for me, while you may disagree because you have had success with the opposite, or maybe you failed doing what I'm saying.  I see 1B or 2B, where there's a couple elite players, as a place to try and be elite, because you probably won't a great 2B on the free agency.  Kind of like TE in Fantasy Football.  If you have Kelce last year you won, Kittle or Waller, maybe 5 guys max, otherwise it's a wasteland.  I love to have a set it and forget it player at shallow positions and I can find gems on the waiver wire/fa for more plentiful positions such as OF or picking up one of the 15 new closers that will pop up each year.  If it was between Soto and Bellinger or something where you have 10+ ADP difference, ok go with the best player.  But if it's Freeman vs Yelich who are within a few spots, I'd always take the shallow position.

  5. That is a very even trade.  I feel like I'd probably choose the Albies/Tatis side, but that's because I don't like rostering players who hit under .250.  I know Alonso and Acuna may not be that bad at BA but I'd guess it's .275 & .240 or something for them.  Albies/Tatis both have power and speed, are young, and I think 2B is a little shallower than 1B.  

    • Like 1
  6. I'd be sure to get Freeman if you need a 1B.  Be elite at scarce positions and then don't have to think about free agents during the year.  Second I'd probably take Ramirez due to 3B being more scarce than the others.  There are 10-12 very good SS that you can probably get the last of in the 60-100 range (if you include Carlos Correa, Javier Baez).  

  7. 18 hours ago, HOOTIE said:

    If you're going to go QS,

    Let's look at OPS

    Albies career .803

    Certainly good. But adjusted, it's a 107.

    7% above average 

    Buehler career era+ 127

    27% above average 

    Sure you want the 7% guy over the 27% guy?

    And even if you leave buehler off, you also say to cut one of bichette or turner?

    Trea is a top 25 player

    Albies is easily the worst of these 5, and it's not even close.

    The only real  debate is, boehlert or devers?

    I disagree because I think it's most important to fill out your roster.  Ozzie is 1st or 2nd best 2B so he's a must keep for me.  Dever is 5-10th 3B, but young and improving.  Yes Trea and Bo are both solid for sure but I wouldn't personally want both of them since SS is super super deep.  It's all just personal preference and nobody knows how they will perform this year but that's what I would do, not saying it's the best choice for everyone.

    • Like 2
  8. On 2/28/2021 at 1:01 PM, superman100679 said:

    T. Turner, Albies, Devers, Bichette, Buehler

    10 Teams, H2H Cats with OPS & XBH added on offense and QS & K/9 added for pitching and SVHD instead of SV's.

    I've been sending out offers but no takers as most teams have a solid 3 already.

    Thoughts?

    Leave link for help, thanks!

    Albies, Devers, and either Bichette or Turner.  Not high on Buehler as he may not pitch so many innings this year and you have QS there.  In 2020 he only pitched 5+ innings 50% of the time and never pitched more than 6.0 innings.  This year there's a lot of uncertainty with inning limits on pitchers, especially younger pitchers.  

    • Like 1
  9. 8 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

    Leagues all have the same mechanics.

    What happened once with me in a dynasty league was some guy I wanted wouldn't clear waivers until the day after the season ended.  I put in a claim the night before for the heck of it.  In the spring I had the guy on my roster though he didn't show after teams were locked for the year.  Just when they went down for the database updates and came back up and there he was on my roster, haha.

    But another more common explanation is in private h2h leagues you can select when playoffs start and end and some leagues choose to finish their championship finals the next to last week of the season so half their star payers won't be sitting on a bench like MLB teams tend to do with their regulars in real life then "resting" them for the playoffs etc.

    In that case the league remains open until the last day of the Yahoo season period like every other Yahoo league.  Even if you can't play games that week.  So that last week you still can make all the drops and adds you want up to your league's limit per week.  Which is a good thing.  Gives you one more week to look over your roster and see who you will want to keep or not and if anyone is out there in the free agent pool you prefer.  Even make a quick trade.  Wonderful week getting you set up for spring.

     

    Must have been something like this.  Usually people don't care after the season but I guess in a keeper people should!

  10. 3 hours ago, fishingguy12345 said:

    The other question is: how close are you to competing? Are your 6 keepers really high quality?

     

    If you're not likely to compete this year and your last keeper isn't a top 60 player then you ought to draft him as if it was a dynasty league rather than a keeper league, so that way when he is up you'll have what is expected to be a top 20 player.

    I was 2nd last year and my keepers are Acuna, Soto, Bichette, Rendon, deGrom, Bauer 

    • Like 1
  11. Looking for opinions on where Franco would be drafted in a keeper league.  10 teams, 6 keepers, we do not have an NA spot, or any special spot for someone in the minors, so he'd be taking up a roster spot.  Trying to figure out if it's worth it to try and snag him and hope he gets the call up and produces, and can be either a keeper or be traded for draft picks for next year.  I would think I'd need to grab him maybe 3 or 4 rounds before the end of the draft to be safe, but I may be off with that estimate.  

  12. Thanks to all.  I am still probably going Robert for upside.  But Giolito's ADP is round 2 or 3, young, on a team that should win a lot.  Robert had that awful streak last year which in my memory is different from other young studs such as Acuna, Soto, who I don't remember having streaks like Robert had (in a bad way).  Last, OF is very abundant with around 90 starting OFs in the league, much easier to find a gem here than an infield position.  Add that to the fact that I already have two top 5 OF, it makes me more willing to look at Giolito, but if Robert pans out I'd have the best OF in my league for a decade barring serious injury.

  13. 8 hours ago, meh2 said:

    I'm not changing my strategy too much this year. My strategy has always been to come away with 7 hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and 1 closer in the first 11 rounds. I've seen some talk of people valuing the aces higher than normal this year, but starting pitchers always have a higher bust rate than hitters, and now with innings limits and perhaps a higher than usual injury risk with an increase in workload from 2020, I think the bust rate will be higher than usual. I will load up on higher upside starters in the middle and late rounds and hope I hit on a few of them. My bench will also have more starting pitchers than usual this year.

    I never spend much draft capital on closers and this year will be no different. For me, there is a steep drop off after the top 12 or 13 closers, so I'm going to make sure I come away with one of those guys. But I won't be looking to draft one of those guys until the top 8 or 9 are off the board. I'll throw a couple later round darts on other closers and hope to come away with some saves from one of those guys. 

     

     

    Agreed on not valuing closers highly.  Probably 30-50% of closers on your draft day won't be the closer for their team 2/3rds through the season.  If you pay attention to free agency and the news you can scoop them up every couple weeks in general.  Won't be top 10 guys, but they will get you saves.  In 2019 I probably drafted 2 RPs who were RP20+ and just picked players up as the season went on and ended the year with 4 or 5 closers.

  14. 22 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

    Rendon is by far the worst of your keepers. Not sure why you’d pick him over Eloy. He’s not a 30 HR bat with no juiced ball.

    Rendon is 30 and has batted over .300 from 2017-19, 2020 was .286...

    He finished top 11 in MVP voting the last 4 years.  

    He is currently going 7th among 3B at about pick 42.  After Rendon the drop off is 20 spots to Cavan BIggio.

    Eloy is ranked about 10 spots higher but I already have 2 of the best young OF in the game and the option to redraft Eloy at #2 overall pick.  Only 14 OF kept in whole league so tons of players to take (guaranteed either Eloy or Robert, among others.)

    That's why I kept Rendon.

  15. 60 kept total in a 10 team league.  Bichette for #5 overall (available players at bottom) - lets me keep Eloy...

     

    Current team:

    Acuna, Soto, Bichette, Rendon, deGrom, Bauer

    picks 2, 9, 12

    If traded Bichette team:

    Acuna, Soto, Eloy, Rendon, deGrom, Bauer

    picks 2, 5, 9, 12

    Top available players after 60 keepers:

    Hitters:  Robert, Tucker, Seager, Marte, Tim Anderson, Arozarena, Voit, Bggio, B Lowe, Cruz, T Hernandez, Conforto, Suarez, K Marte, Gurriel Jr, Matt Olson, Blackmon, Altuve, Castellanos, Meadows, Bohm

    Pitchers:  Giloito, Gallen, Woodruff, Burnes, Maeda, Gray, Lynn, Plesac, L Hendricks, Lamet, E Diaz 

    *League is keep 6, any 6, no round costs....keep forever...

     

     

     

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