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SnellMyFinger

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  1. Another home run today. Kelly's stock is definitely trending upward, especially in OBP formats.
  2. Yeah, Reese McGuire showed potential in 2018 and 2019, but his 2020 season reminded us all how quickly a player can... peter out.
  3. I believe Alejandro Kirk is one of those players that is being severely underrated by the market. There are biases that we import to our player evaluations and one of those biases is our aversion to "unathletic" body types. For the most part this is a useful way of thinking, but if we stick to this rule too closely it will cause certain players to slip through the cracks. The fact of the matter is that everything about his bat looks pretty special and it costs you almost nothing to find out.
  4. I think it means that because his hit tool is so exceptional, he's going to hit a decent amount of home runs by virtue of the high number of balls he puts in play. In other words, his home run totals should exceed what you might expect if you were simply going off of his batting practice power displays.
  5. Luis Garcia is the next guy up, and he's actually a pretty interesting arm. Borderline plus fastball, a plus slider, and a plus changeup. The only thing really holding him back is his strike throwing. Keep a close eye on him this spring because if he takes a step forward in this area, he could be a real under the radar draft day steal.
  6. I see what you're saying. I think my post was meant less as a projection and more as a statement that the numbers I threw out are within reach. "Projections" by their very nature tend to be more conservative.
  7. Clint Frazier made a couple of mechanical adjustments this year that really seemed to pay off. Call me crazy, but I see a 30/10 season this year with 380+ OBP due to his strong walk rate. I envision a season more or less like Bryce Harper's 2019. Truly one of the most underrated assets this year, especially in OBP leagues.
  8. Why not implement a salary floor so that all the slapdick teams dragging everything down might put a competitive team on the field?
  9. I heard that his changeup took a step forward this past summer as well. I'm very bullish.
  10. Looked really good to end the year with an xBA of .293 and an xSLG of .466. Granted it was a small sample size, but his average exit velocity was up to 93.1 so it seems like part of his uptick in production can be explained by him hitting the ball a lot harder. Toss in his 86th percentile sprint speed and the fact that he was hitting 1st in the order, ahead of Trea Turner and Juan Soto, and there's a lot to like here. Big time sleeper for me heading into next year.
  11. It's worth pointing out that his current level of production goes all the way back to July of 2019. Ever since he was called back up to the Blue Jays last summer, he's put up 450 plate appearances of about a 50/10 full-season pace, good for a 142 wRC+. This uptick in performance over that timespan can partly be explained by an increase in his average exit velocity from 90.4 mph to 93.6 mph. I mean look at his Baseball Savant page... he's in the 98th percentile in Exit Velocity, 92nd percentile in xBA, 96th percentile in Hard Hit%, 97th percentile in xSLG, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 98th per
  12. Soler with speed is the exact comp I've been making for a while now. Teoscar is an absolute stud.
  13. Pham looks like he's going to be out for an extended period of time... any chance we see Trammell?
  14. Apparently he spent the offseason training with Driveline and his fastball velocity has ticked up to where it was sitting back in 2017... when he put up a sub-3 ERA. I'm definitely buying in at his current price. Starter with a guaranteed role, and the upside of a top 25 pitcher, coming at the end of the draft? Sign me up!
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