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Everything posted by SnellMyFinger

  1. Keeping it rolling with #6 tonight. Dude's a stud.
  2. Ben Clemens of Fangraphs put out this piece on him today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carson-kelly-is-raking/ Oh yeah, and he hit another bomb today as well.
  3. Another home run today. Kelly's stock is definitely trending upward, especially in OBP formats.
  4. Yeah, Reese McGuire showed potential in 2018 and 2019, but his 2020 season reminded us all how quickly a player can... peter out.
  5. I believe Alejandro Kirk is one of those players that is being severely underrated by the market. There are biases that we import to our player evaluations and one of those biases is our aversion to "unathletic" body types. For the most part this is a useful way of thinking, but if we stick to this rule too closely it will cause certain players to slip through the cracks. The fact of the matter is that everything about his bat looks pretty special and it costs you almost nothing to find out.
  6. I think it means that because his hit tool is so exceptional, he's going to hit a decent amount of home runs by virtue of the high number of balls he puts in play. In other words, his home run totals should exceed what you might expect if you were simply going off of his batting practice power displays.
  7. Luis Garcia is the next guy up, and he's actually a pretty interesting arm. Borderline plus fastball, a plus slider, and a plus changeup. The only thing really holding him back is his strike throwing. Keep a close eye on him this spring because if he takes a step forward in this area, he could be a real under the radar draft day steal.
  8. I see what you're saying. I think my post was meant less as a projection and more as a statement that the numbers I threw out are within reach. "Projections" by their very nature tend to be more conservative.
  9. Clint Frazier made a couple of mechanical adjustments this year that really seemed to pay off. Call me crazy, but I see a 30/10 season this year with 380+ OBP due to his strong walk rate. I envision a season more or less like Bryce Harper's 2019. Truly one of the most underrated assets this year, especially in OBP leagues.
  10. Why not implement a salary floor so that all the slapdick teams dragging everything down might put a competitive team on the field?
  11. I heard that his changeup took a step forward this past summer as well. I'm very bullish.
  12. Looked really good to end the year with an xBA of .293 and an xSLG of .466. Granted it was a small sample size, but his average exit velocity was up to 93.1 so it seems like part of his uptick in production can be explained by him hitting the ball a lot harder. Toss in his 86th percentile sprint speed and the fact that he was hitting 1st in the order, ahead of Trea Turner and Juan Soto, and there's a lot to like here. Big time sleeper for me heading into next year.
  13. It's worth pointing out that his current level of production goes all the way back to July of 2019. Ever since he was called back up to the Blue Jays last summer, he's put up 450 plate appearances of about a 50/10 full-season pace, good for a 142 wRC+. This uptick in performance over that timespan can partly be explained by an increase in his average exit velocity from 90.4 mph to 93.6 mph. I mean look at his Baseball Savant page... he's in the 98th percentile in Exit Velocity, 92nd percentile in xBA, 96th percentile in Hard Hit%, 97th percentile in xSLG, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 98th per
  14. Soler with speed is the exact comp I've been making for a while now. Teoscar is an absolute stud.
  15. Pham looks like he's going to be out for an extended period of time... any chance we see Trammell?
  16. Apparently he spent the offseason training with Driveline and his fastball velocity has ticked up to where it was sitting back in 2017... when he put up a sub-3 ERA. I'm definitely buying in at his current price. Starter with a guaranteed role, and the upside of a top 25 pitcher, coming at the end of the draft? Sign me up!
  17. He does, or at least he did last year. The pitch had an elite level spin rate which you would think would lead to a high number of whiffs if he threw it up in the zone. But that just didn't happen and the likely reason was that it had poor spin efficiency. If he were to optimize the pitch's spin (by simply tilting the pitch's spin axis) so that it had more ride up in the zone or horizontal movement, the pitch could be really, really good. Which when paired with his otherworldly slider would give him a downright filthy arsenal. Sure I'm speculating that he's made the necessary adjustments,
  18. I'm all in on him if he's given the opportunity. Anyone have any insight into how the Brewers rotation might shake out? Last I heard the 5th spot was an open competition between Burnes, Lauer, and Peralta (who has some serious sleeper potential as well).
  19. Alright, I've got one, and I'd actually be willing to put money on it: Jeff Mathis hits as many home runs in 2020 as Mike Trout, Ronald Acuña, and Christian Yelich combined.
  20. Right, but my optimism comes from the fact that he's hit for a high average at every level, and his hot September coincided with a mechanical change. He ditched a leg kick in favor of a toe tap and it showed immediate results. I agree that he's not coming at the discount that we'd like, but I'm optimistic about both him performing and his playing time. I also might be overly optimistic due to the fact that I've been following him since his amateur days.
  21. I take your point, but this sort of hitting profile (leaning on batting average and stolen bases to provide value) doesn't really present itself in terms of wRC+. I mean look at Starling Marte, for example. Marte is a perennial early round pick and his wRC+ is always right around 120 (which is more or less Hampson's September). I take your point about there being a roster crunch, but finding playing time might not be as difficult as you might think. He has positional versatility and a solid glove working in his favor. And considering Ian Desmond has been below replacement level for 3 year
  22. Call me crazy, but given his power, plate discipline, position in a strong lineup, and ability to chip in a few steals, I don't think there's that big of a difference between him and Xander Bogaerts... and, in Yahoo leagues, Semien's going nearly 40 picks later. Lots of value to be had here... especially in OBP leagues, and especially if his second half gains from last year carry over.
  23. Here's what Prospectslive had to say on their top 100 list: "The 6-foot-6 lefty can dial the fastball up to the upper-90s, but sits comfortably at 94-95 and he pairs it with a devastating slider that gets plus grades. His big curveball is an average offering and he mixes in a changeup that’s shown signs of being a plus pitch. He looked strong in the AFL after missing two months of the season with arm soreness. He throws every pitch with a purpose and attacks hitters. Lynch is likely to settle in as a two or three starter, but if that changeup improves some more he could develop into somet
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