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perkinsfor3

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Posts posted by perkinsfor3

  1.  

    On Thursday against the Charlotte Hornets, Vucevic took eight threes, knocking down three of them. He scored 27 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, both game highs.

    “I told him today in front of the team, I like last night,” Clifford said. “I like eight, nine threes a game. If you look in the bubble, one of the reasons he played so well, he’s inside and outside. So last night, he had three paint catches of which I think we scored six points on, or maybe even seven. Then I believe he shot eight threes. I think that’s a great blend for him.”

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  2. Waited a bit to post it, until after I picked him up myself, but I liked Immanuel Quickley coming into this draft a lot, aand seeing him on the court with the Knicks made me pull the trigger in dynasty, 

    Quickley has great size (+5" wingspan), plays good defense and is a really good shooter. His playmaking and courtvision needed some work coming out of college, but he has a great overall attitude and works hard. Very coachable and should be a Thibs darling. Funny to see DSjr play defense now as well btw. 

    Quickley has been working out with Mahmoud Abdul Rauf pre-draft and so far he's looked impressive. Elfrid Payton looks like the old Elfrid Payton - cant shoot, cant finish inside. DSjr looks like a bench scorer (but improved and like a keeper for the Knicks) and I'm not sure what to make of Frank Ntilikina right now. 

    It wouldn't surprise me to actually see Quickley earn the starting nod somewhere this season. He's really steady and his playmaking improved, going by these first games. Pretty high on him. Dude made Knox look like a player and also had some beautiful plays for Toppin and others. They thrive playing with an actual playmaker, weirdly enough.

     

    It's also a great example of this draft probably producing some gems later on in the draft, like Quickley, Maledon, while the lottery will be a crapshoot.

     

     

     

    And maaaaaaan... Randle is BAD. Can the Knicks even get a 2nd rounder for that guy? Jeez.

    • Like 2
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  3. 4 minutes ago, dfstout said:

    Im torn between Deni's or IHOP...🥞🥞🥞

    I like him as a rd 13-15 dart throw if he gets named the starter...but Brooks has said that the SF is going to be (translated into fantasy terms) "Annoying" or as he put it, fluid and a revolving door...  

    Deni could play his way into keeping the position so def worth the scoop.

     

    Brown jr, Bertans, Bonga and Deni are all interedting talents, with Brown probably suffering most this year as he thrives with increased usage.

  4. 6 hours ago, Bugs bunny said:

    A bunch. It’s a pretty big list. 

    I wouldnt say a big list. About 50 over a span of ten years. I wrote about it a few seasons ago:

    https://perkinsfor3.wordpress.com/2016/08/29/rookies-fantasy/

     

    "I often see questions about rookies in yearly leagues. It’s a familiair sight to see someone reach for a nice rookie somewhere around the fourth or even third round of redrafts. Someone on another board asked if there have been rookies who put up 1st round value in their first season. Over the last ten years, there have only been two. Curry and Towns. Before that, Chris Paul put up #19 value as a rookie.

    So a quick checkup on the value of rookies in their first year (obviously, in dynasty/keeper settings, their valuation is much different), over the last decade:

    1st Round Rookies who put up top 100 value in their first season:

    1  — 11  — Stephen Curry
    1  — 12  — Karl-Anthony Towns
    3  — 25  — Anthony Davis
    4  — 38  — Kyrie Irving
    5  — 50  — Kristaps Porzingis
    5  — 51  — Brandon Roy
    5  — 51  — Brook Lopez
    5  — 51  — Damian Lillard
    5  — 56  — Nerlens Noel
    6  — 71  — Tyreke Evans
    6  — 72  — Ricky Rubio
    7  — 73  — Eric Gordon
    7  — 78  — Kawhi Leonard
    7  — 84  — Kevin Durant
    8  — 88  — Kenneth Faried
    8  — 91  — Al Horford
    8  — 95  — OJ Mayo
    8  — 96  — Michael Carter-Williams
    9  — 100  — John Wall

    As you can see, the drop-off after the first two, and then again after the first four guys listed, is quite steep.

    Rookies who put up top 208 value (16 team, 13 player size):

    9  — 103  — Greg Monroe
    9  — 105  — Jahlil Okafor
    10  — 117  — Brandon Jennings
    10  — 119  — Kyle Lowry
    10  — 120  — Myles Turner
    11  — 121  — Bradley Beal
    11  — 122  — Rudy Fernandez
    11  — 123  — Marc Gasol
    11  — 124  — Klay Thompson
    11  — 125  — Derrick Rose
    11  — 127  — Nikola Mirotic
    11  — 130  — Andrew Wiggins
    11  — 131  — Victor Oladipo
    12  — 134  — Ed Davis
    12  — 135  — Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
    12  — 135  — Thaddeus Young
    12  — 136  — Willie Cauley-Stein
    12  — 141  — Iman Shumpert
    12  — 143  — Darren Collison
    12  — 143  — Jabari Parker
    13  — 145  — Anthony Morrow
    13  — 149  — Andre Drummond
    13  — 149  — DJ White
    13  — 149  — Marcus Smart
    13  — 150  — LaMarcus Aldridge
    13  — 150  — Taj Gibson
    13  — 151  — Andrea Bargnani
    13  — 156  — James Harden
    14  — 158  — Kevin Love
    14  — 159  — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
    14  — 164  — Joakim Noah
    14  — 164  — Maurice Harkless
    14  — 164  — Rudy Gay
    14  — 165  — Trey Burke
    14  — 166  — DJ Augustin
    14  — 167  — Paul George
    15  — 170  — Courtney Lee
    15  — 170  — Luis Scola
    15  — 170  — Rajon Rondo
    15  — 173  — Kemba Walker
    15  — 176  — D’Angelo Russell
    15  — 176  — Toney Douglas
    15  — 177  — Michael Beasley
    15  — 178  — Elfrid Payton
    15  — 179  — Wesley Johnson
    16  — 182  — Larry Nance
    16  — 183  — Juan Carlos Navarro
    16  — 183  — Terrence Jones
    16  — 184  — Randy Foye
    16  — 186  — TJ McConnell
    16  — 187  — Anthony Randolph
    16  — 190  — Mason Plumlee
    16  — 190  — Russell Westbrook
    16  — 191  — Jrue Holiday
    16  — 191  — Yi Jianlian
    16  — 192  — MarShon Brooks
    16  — 192  — Ryan Anderson
    17  — 193  — Jared Sullinger
    17  — 193  — Renaldo Balkman
    17  — 194  — Brandon Knight
    17  — 195  — Jason Thompson
    17  — 195  — Tarence Kinsey
    17  — 196  — Tim Hardaway Jr
    17  — 197  — Greg Oden
    17  — 200  — Patrick Patterson
    17  — 201  — Chris Singleton
    17  — 201  — Dion Waiters
    17  — 202  — Jusuf Nurkic
    17  — 202  — Kelly Olynyk
    17  — 202  — Nicolas Batum
    17  — 202  — Ty Lawson
    17  — 203  — Devin Booker
    17  — 204  — Tyler Zeller
    18  — 206  — Marreese Speights
    18  — 206  — Omri Casspi
    18  — 207  — Danilo Gallinari
    18  — 207  — Sean Williams

    Took a look at how 1st round rookie picks in leagues like ours do over the course of years, their general value and how it differs per year, experience and pick.

    Consider the top 16 rookies as being 1st rounders in most leagues.

    Going back ten years, I’ve taken the value of the past season for all top 15 picks. If a player is not in the league anymore or yet has to play a game, he gets a rank of 466, 1 point worse than the lowest ranked player last year. Not totally fair, but it’ll have to do.

    The lower the rank, the better the value.

    Averge rank per draft year (for 2015-2016 season):

    2006 – 353
    2007 – 256
    2008 – 195
    2009 – 252
    2010 – 170
    2011 – 151
    2012 – 197
    2013 – 167
    2014 – 248
    2015 – 227
    Ranks are skewed by, for example, the 2009 draft having loads of players who are out of the league already. So that’s not the greatest measurement. However, I wanted to know the value per pick most of all, and this shouldn’t suffer as much from outliers and the influence of experience and age.

    The average value per pick over the last ten years (for 2015-2016):

    #1 – 172
    #2 – 149
    #3 – 154
    #4 – 140
    #5 – 213
    #6 – 274
    #7 – 177
    #8 – 187
    #9 – 199
    #10 – 224
    #11 – 200
    #12 – 291
    #13 – 251
    #14 – 304
    #15 – 284
    #16 – 326

    Clear line there. Bargs, Oden and Bennett totally screw up the value of the #1 picks overall. Do GM’s tend to take more risk with a #1 pick? The trend from 2-16 seems like an expected one, with a dip around 5 and 6. I think I’ve read somehwere before that pick 5 in general is often one of the worst ones in history."

    • Like 2
  5. 13 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

    Theo Maledon and Pokusevski
    both talented and both could play ton of minutes in OKC disaster roster
    Don't fear competition by George Hill, Dort or Bazley
    the two rookies are much better

    If you say Poku is much better than Bazley you're either:

    - blind

    - lying

    - not watching basketball

    - trying to pump up Poku's value in a redraft league

    - shitposting

     

     

    Im assuming all of the above.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 6
  6. 3 hours ago, Crazycanto said:

    As always, my bold prediction is that it will be none of the guys mentioned in this thread and it will end up being either an unheralded rookie or solid journeyman who ended up getting starters minutes.  

    I think I mentioned Devonte' Graham as early as summer 2019 a few times in a topic like this. 😉

    • Like 1
  7. 3 hours ago, tazdingo said:

     

    Very interesting take. I guess I'd like to see what he & Pop does once the games actually matter. Its a bit difficult to tell at the moment when Dejounte, LMA and DeRozan aren't taking the games seriously just yet. As I said, my gut is saying that Lonnie gets the starting mid but I will jump all over Vassell the second I see him get more than 25mpg.

    Lonnie actually hasn't been looking very good ever since that huge game vs the Rockets. Not sure if he'll tap into that upside anytime soon. Vassell and Keldon are brighter talents imo.

  8. 2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

    I agree, Pop won't play rookies.  I don't think Vassell gets much run even with White and Keldon out.  I think it will be Walker, Patty Mills, and Rudy Gay absorbing all the extra minutes.

    - Tony Parker (28th pick) got almost 30mpg as a rookie.

    - Manu (57th) got 20 mpg as a rookie.

    - Beno Udrih (28th overall) got 15 mpg as a rookie

    - George Hill (26th) got 17 mpg as a rookie

    - DeJuan Blair (37th) got 18mpg as a rookie, also started 32 games

    - Gary Neal (undrafted) got 21mpg as a rookie

    - Tiago Splitter (28th) got 12mpg as a rookie

    - Kawhi (15th) got 24mpg as a rookie, started 39 games

    - Kyle Anderson (30th) played 12mpg as a rookie

    - Johnathon Simmons (undrafted) played 15mpg as a rookie

    - Bertans (42th) played 12 mpg as a rookie, started 6

     

    Pop will play rookies when he feels they're ready to contribute and when they fit the system/needs. The 'Pop wont play rookies'  chants are old and misplaced. People need to look into what the Spurs draft, what picks they have and look at the facts.

    Spurs let Forbes (25mpg) walk. Belinelli (16mpg) is gone too. White and Keldon are injured to start the season, and Vassell has alreayd looked like the best player on the floor during good stretches the past games. Pop likes him. He fits a needs (defense and shooting). He'll play him. 

    • Like 5
  9. Take it with a grain of salt, but:
    Frank Vogel on THT during WCF practice last year: "That ******** kid, he's gonna start for me next year.

    Clip here: https://streamable.com/3un7gn

    "We're sitting in Lakers practice one day I think during the WCF. Talen is on the court, running with Jared Dudley and doing his thing. I think Dan mentioned Talen doing pretty good. And Frank turns to us, and he says, man, that fucing kid, he's gonna start for me next year. We looked at each other, like, what the heck did he just say?"

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  10. 6 minutes ago, Espoiral said:

     

    I mean, I'm pretty sure everyone would have Josh Richardson over him. JRich was most likely drafted in competitive 12 teamers (maybe even 10s) however, while guys like DJJ either go undrafted or are taken with the very last pick.

    It's all about throwing darts at potential upside and seeing what sticks. I'm big on DJJ because 1. The Blazers know that wing defense is what's needed for them to improve. 2. Only real competition is from Hood, who's coming off a torn achilles, and GTJ, who has to take on the backup SG minutes as well. Sure you won't see him play 35 mins a night but I reckon he'll get a consistent 25-30 minutes, which is still better than the inconsistent 23 minutes he got in the Heat. He was already #136 last year in 9cat - can't see why he won't break the top 100. Even better if punting assists.

     

    Blazers will play Covington at SF as well. They have a lot of depth across SF/PF/C with several players who can play multiple positions. Melo is stricktly PF nowadays, and will see the court quite a bit. Zach Collins is coming back, Harry Giles has been showing out and should have a good role with his skillset for us. Then you also have Nassir Little being brought along slowly, he can see a few minutes as a defender. Rodney Hood is still a good scorer with size. 

    Trent got the majority of his minutes as a SF last year actually. But it's hard to peg them currently as we were depleted, and I'm hoping we'll be able to keep Dame a bit more fresh for the playoffs this year. Olshey addressed everything but PG depth - and team are trapping Dame (he's not good at passing out of doubles/triples) and as such disrupting the offense early. I would have expected the front office to bring in a George Hill type (not him perse) to alleviate the ballhandler and bring in some size. Didn't happen, but hard to complain with the offseason the Blazers had. 

    Coming back to DJJ - I like his fit as a defender and dunk spot fill in. I'm not impressed with him as a basketball player - he's not very good and acts on insticts/athleticism a lot. That can work in a system with a lot of shooters, like Dame/CJ/Covington, and is a better fit than what he was in Miami's shooting depleted line ups, but he won't play 30+mpg. 

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