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Overlord last won the day on April 8

Overlord had the most liked content!

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  1. 3.66 SIERA and 3.46 xFIP. So the good performance is real, the otherworldly results are unlikely to continue. Looking like a sneaky SP3ish option if he keeps up with underlying peripherals, and given he was a late-round flier or a waiver wire addition that's pretty fantastic. Regression is [obviously, nobody could sustain this] coming, but playing in SF I think you can maybe count on pitchers to outperform their xFIP/FIP fairly consistently.
  2. ... yes, you absolutely want to identify juicers early and grab them (disregarding their often-pedestrian minor league history that predates their "getting into the best shape of their lives").
  3. A big reason why folks don't believe in Nelson Cruz every year (despite being wrong, every year) is because what he has done defies basically every single thing we know about performance declines in [non-roiding] aging ballplayers. The only way to properly valuate and auction/draft him is BY recognizing that there is something ... unusual ... going on.
  4. Nobody [probably] cares. But fantasy baseball is, at its core, a game of predictive modeling. Ignore such an obvious factor at your peril (it will result in your repeatedly disregarding outlier "old player" performance leaps as flukes).
  5. One should care because correctly identifying visual and/or performance signs of juicing vs. "fluke" performance spikes enable you to better predict who is worth picking up next time. It also will let you factor in the risk that you may lose someone for 80+ games. * I watchlisted Adonis after seeing him in ST and grabbed him the moment he was called up. Maybe it won't work out, but the "eyeball test" was a big part of it. **Arrozerena is another beyond-obvious candidate.
  6. DING DING DING (there are a couple of other extremely obvious candidates for this type of conclusion out there this season ... EXTREMELY obvious) Yeah, there are, and for the past 3-4 decades this is largely due to PEDs. Sometimes guys "figure it out" later than the norm and turn it around in their late 20s or early 30s. It does happen, occasionally. A fireballer who struggled with control FINALLY gets his release point figured out. A hitter who partied, drank, and didn't take his craft seriously runs out of bonus money and tries hard. It does happen. But that's not
  7. A 2.17 SIERA and a 1.73 xfIP as compared to a 4.63 ERA!!! Yeah, smurf is right on the money.
  8. Is he legit? Let's look at stats traditionally considered "predictive" (of these, I typically find SIERA and xFIP to be the most helpful). 2021 ERA is .69 (obviously unsustainable over a meaningful sample size) 2021 xFIP is 2.88 2021 SIERA is 3.05 2021 xERA is 1.94 So what does this tell us? Freddy's been lucky, but even if his stats "normalized" he'd still be at a near-elite level. A few of those walks turn into Ks due to better umpiring (Freddy seems to get squeezed a lot ... probably my imagination as an owner) and near-elite turns into elite. --Interestingly e
  9. Congratulations to Dom Nunez and Omar Narvaez. After a heated battle between yourselves, Zack Collins, Willians Astudillo, Tom Murphy, Elias Diaz, and Daulton Varsho, you have won the jobs for my team. **Dom Nunez should be grabbed in any league in which he's still available right this moment.
  10. I think he gets exactly one more shot.
  11. They'll definitely give Bass another chance after that Houdini-trick Conforto just pulled to steal a win! How blind do the umpires have to be to not notice a guy leaning across the plate to take a pitch off his elbow pad?
  12. Candidly, I thought Yimi would have the job already.
  13. I had forgotten he was on my team.
  14. That's the example that Atlanta management repeatedly shoved into Albies's face to make him sign the worst contract in modern baseball history.
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