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jvmillion83

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  1. I like this call a lot. Adams finished at 997 yards last year and finished around WR #20. He scored about 10.8 fantasy points per game right around the same rate as guys like Hopkins, Hill and Cooper. This was despite missing 4 games and playing on one of the luckiest 13 win teams (DVOA was one of the worst) and having the game script favor the running game. GB had an absurd +14 turnover differential, a figure that's unsustainable with that defense that's averaged close to zero the last few years. In nine games, they've faced these QBs (Trubisky twice,Flacco, Carr, Moore, Kyle Allen, Jimmy G, Haskins and David Blough- also if you want to throw in against Cousins twice where their running game chewed up a ton of clock in 2019 too). That's hardly shootout material. Even when they faced Prescott, GB had two Aaron Jones rushing TDs and took a 17-0 halftime lead and didn't have the need to pass. The closest they got to a shootout in 2019 was the TNF game vs the Eagles against Carson Wentz. Now onto 2020, besides the point differential, no additions to steal targets from Adams and also WRs like Lazard, MVS etc to provide some continuity, GB should be in more shootouts. The first six qbs they face are Cousins, Stafford,Brees, Ryan, Brady and Watson. They also have more favorable matchups the rest of the way (ie. JAX, CAR- teams with no defense). GB is not winning 13 games again and their D cannot sustain that extremely high turnover differential to put their running game in that favorable game script like it was in 2019. Rodgers will have to throw and as long as Adams stays healthy, he will be huge.
  2. Because of the $280 limit, top 10-15 guys is available will get past 50 (maybe into 60's possibly low 70s if you're a top guy like Trout). Top 40-50 guys should stay in the 40s. Top 100 guys will range from low 20s to high 30s. Machado just has that name value where he may get up there and despite the bad average he's still a lock for good power numbers. I also have Bryant I could keep at 46 or Correa at 33. It might be best to throw all three back and use my $160+budget in the auction to try to get any of them for value or a few others around that.
  3. My keepers are due tomorrow. 12 team head to head. Keep up to 12 and can't exceed $180. In the auction, our cumulative total can't exceed $280. Player values increase $4 each year. C/1B/2B/3B/SS/5 OFs/UTIL/SP/SP/RP/RP/P/P/P/P 6 additional bench spots (25 total roster spots). I already have these guys locked 1b- bell- 5, 2b- huira - 11, 3b- vlad- 9, 2b/3b - moncada- 23, of- kepler -7, of- laureano- 9, of- kingery -8 sp- buehler 9, sp- berrios 15, p- urias 9. Debating between 2 of these three to keep for my final 2 spots: $48- Machado- I'll be assured a big bat going into auction and could fill my SS spot. His projected value at auction should be in the mid 40s but could reach 50 $5- Gore- I was definitely keeping him but with the season delay, I'm not sure how much he pitches in the bigs this year. If the Padres are competitive, they'll want him up at some point. $5- Garver- A value regardless. There's a lot to suggest his breakout was for real but then this came out of nowhere so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not a top 10 fantasy catcher this year.
  4. Ackey, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas (in his first four years), Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Taijuan Walker. Just a start of some wild misses from my keeper league in the past ten years.
  5. 12 team league. More than a month away that I have to submit my keepers. We can't keep over 12 guys and it can't exceed over $180 in budget. The live auction then happens and you can't exceed $280 overall. Player prices also increase $4 the first three years and then $2 each additional year on top of the $4. Who do you keep from this list? I think I have it ranked like this. Vlad-9, Buehler-9, Moncada- 23, Josh Bell- 5, Huira- 11, Berrios- 15, Kepler- 7, Correa- 33, Laureano- 9, Julio Urias- 5, Manaea- 5 , Machado- I don't think he'll get over 50 in the auction, Senzel- I'm worried about his playing time in Cincy, Franco/Gore- we don't have any N/A spot so minor leaguer will be taking up a bench spot. Machado- 48 Correa- 33 Moncada- 23 Berrios- 15 Senzel- 12 Huira- 11 Laureano- 9 Vlad- 9 Buehler- 9 Kingery- 8 Kepler- 7 C Martinez- 5 Odorizzi- 5 Alfaro- 5 Josh BEll- 5 Julio Urias- 5 McCullers- 5 Gore- 5 Garver- 5 Manaea- 5 Wander Franco- 5
  6. I'm intrigued with Dylan Bundy getting out of Baltimore and being in a much better pitching environment. I'm sure he'll be barely touched in drafts.
  7. My first impression AL East Yankees- Just a dominant roster. That staff will coast. AL Central- Indians- They have a great system for developing pitching so they'll be fine. Still a good team. AL West- Astros- Still too good of a roster. They should still finish at the top. WC- Athletics- If the staff can stay healthy but that's if. WC- Rays- They are still a deep roster. I considered the Twins but don't like their pitching depth. I like the Angels to improve but I don't know by how much. The Red Sox are also too talented and will be in the mix. I like the White Sox on paper but until they prove otherwise, they'll need to do it on the field. NL East Braves- Just a really good team NL Central Cardinals- I don't like anyone in this division but the Cards have the most solid roster. The Reds seem like the White Sox of the NL. I'll have to see it to believe it but they'll be in the mix NL West- Dodgers- Just a dominant roster. This team will coast. WC- Mets- If this staff stays healthy, they will have a great year. WC- Nats- They'll make it in there. I considered the Reds. Arizona is a trendy pick but I like the NL East teams better. The Rockies are another team I thought of. I think their offense and team is good enough to overcome pitching woes. A's over Rays Mets over Nats Yankees over A's Indians over Stros Yankees over Indians Dodgers over Mets Braves over Cards Dodgers over Cards Yankees over Dodgers
  8. Keeping PHI and SF for the playoff run. PHI has the Giants and Washington week 14 and 15. They have Dallas in week 16 but SF has the Rams. Normally I'd be scared of the Rams but their offensive line is trash. SF should get points on sacks alone. Even if you're in Week 16, there might be someone better on the waiver wire considering only one other team is competing. Just a quick look at the schedule there are some potential streamers (taking into account that CHI, BUF, BAL, SF, NO, NE, PIT are already owned). Injuries always happen and teams always change (who would've thought a few weeks ago that ATL would be a top 10 D) so the landscape could change in a few weeks: Week 14 Dallas @ CHI ATL vs CAR GB vs WASH NYJ vs MIA INDY at TB JAX vs LAC PHI vs NYG Week 15 DET vs TB GB vs CHI NYG vs MIA PHI at WASH SEA at CAR ATL at SF Week 16 ATL vs JAX INDY vs CAR NYJ vs PIT NYG at WASH DENV vs DET (DET also might be solid) KC at CHI
  9. This. One of those guys you draft late and not worry where he is on the depth chart just like Kamara in '17. He'll be involved at some point and in a huge way. This offensive system can support two fantasy relevant RBs (considering those backs are good enough). I'd rather have this guy on my roster over some other mediocre back "who is the starter" in a much worse system.
  10. I'm in a league where we can flex a QB but I drafted Luck in my draft before he retired. I'm having a tough time deciding which QB to pick up out of these two for my third qb to roster. (4 pts per TD, PT per 20 passing yards, pt per 10 rushing yards, 6 pts per rushing TD, -1 pt per INT, 5 pts per 350 passing yards) Jacoby Brissett- He didn't do so bad in some games when he started a few years ago. The coaching staff and supporting staff has changed. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches for QBs and I think with all their supporting cast, he can be a solid QB2. Joe Flacco- I'm a huge fan of how Denver addressed their offense this system including a huge upgrade in their coaching staff. I think Flacco can revitalize his career in Denver. He didn't have much for weapons in Baltimore since Steve Smith retired and how he's got more to work with including an OC that he worked with in Baltimore in his best years. I think he has potential to be a solid QB2.
  11. Yeah I don't think he'll top what Kamara did but this situation seems so similar to the Saints one a few years ago. Hill is that preseason guy, no matter his current role, just draft him on your roster and watch it all play out. I think this is one very late round pick that people might regret passing on His skill set fits the offense the best and this offense can make two rbs relevant.
  12. Marquise Goodwin finishes as a WR2- Was a 5th/6th rd pick at this time last year. Jimmy G's favorite WR. Justice Hill emerges close to what Kamara did in '17. Will Dissly finishes as top 10 TE- Someone needs to step up after Lockett for targets Larry Fitzgerald finishes top 20 WR- This offense will have a lot of completed passes. Zach Ertz finishes outside top 5 TE- Unlike last year, too many options for Wentz to throw to
  13. Speaking from experience, I did the same thing in an 18 round draft last year. Luckily I also took Chicago late but used the Jags week 1 and during Chicago's bye week and never used them again. I ended up dropping them before the fantasy playoffs. Someone picked them up, started them in RD 1 (the Derrick Henry game) and had an early exit.
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