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Everything posted by jvmillion83

  1. I like this call a lot. Adams finished at 997 yards last year and finished around WR #20. He scored about 10.8 fantasy points per game right around the same rate as guys like Hopkins, Hill and Cooper. This was despite missing 4 games and playing on one of the luckiest 13 win teams (DVOA was one of the worst) and having the game script favor the running game. GB had an absurd +14 turnover differential, a figure that's unsustainable with that defense that's averaged close to zero the last few years. In nine games, they've faced these QBs (Trubisky twice,Flacco, Carr, Moore, Kyle Allen, Jimm
  2. Because of the $280 limit, top 10-15 guys is available will get past 50 (maybe into 60's possibly low 70s if you're a top guy like Trout). Top 40-50 guys should stay in the 40s. Top 100 guys will range from low 20s to high 30s. Machado just has that name value where he may get up there and despite the bad average he's still a lock for good power numbers. I also have Bryant I could keep at 46 or Correa at 33. It might be best to throw all three back and use my $160+budget in the auction to try to get any of them for value or a few others around that.
  3. My keepers are due tomorrow. 12 team head to head. Keep up to 12 and can't exceed $180. In the auction, our cumulative total can't exceed $280. Player values increase $4 each year. C/1B/2B/3B/SS/5 OFs/UTIL/SP/SP/RP/RP/P/P/P/P 6 additional bench spots (25 total roster spots). I already have these guys locked 1b- bell- 5, 2b- huira - 11, 3b- vlad- 9, 2b/3b - moncada- 23, of- kepler -7, of- laureano- 9, of- kingery -8 sp- buehler 9, sp- berrios 15, p- urias 9. Debating between 2 of these three to keep for my final 2 spots: $48- Machado- I'll be assured a big bat going
  4. Ackey, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas (in his first four years), Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Taijuan Walker. Just a start of some wild misses from my keeper league in the past ten years.
  5. 12 team league. More than a month away that I have to submit my keepers. We can't keep over 12 guys and it can't exceed over $180 in budget. The live auction then happens and you can't exceed $280 overall. Player prices also increase $4 the first three years and then $2 each additional year on top of the $4. Who do you keep from this list? I think I have it ranked like this. Vlad-9, Buehler-9, Moncada- 23, Josh Bell- 5, Huira- 11, Berrios- 15, Kepler- 7, Correa- 33, Laureano- 9, Julio Urias- 5, Manaea- 5 , Machado- I don't think he'll get over 50 in the auction, Senzel- I
  6. I'm intrigued with Dylan Bundy getting out of Baltimore and being in a much better pitching environment. I'm sure he'll be barely touched in drafts.
  7. My first impression AL East Yankees- Just a dominant roster. That staff will coast. AL Central- Indians- They have a great system for developing pitching so they'll be fine. Still a good team. AL West- Astros- Still too good of a roster. They should still finish at the top. WC- Athletics- If the staff can stay healthy but that's if. WC- Rays- They are still a deep roster. I considered the Twins but don't like their pitching depth. I like the Angels to improve but I don't know by how much. The Red Sox are also too talented and will be in the mix. I like the Whi
  8. Keeping PHI and SF for the playoff run. PHI has the Giants and Washington week 14 and 15. They have Dallas in week 16 but SF has the Rams. Normally I'd be scared of the Rams but their offensive line is trash. SF should get points on sacks alone. Even if you're in Week 16, there might be someone better on the waiver wire considering only one other team is competing. Just a quick look at the schedule there are some potential streamers (taking into account that CHI, BUF, BAL, SF, NO, NE, PIT are already owned). Injuries always happen and teams always change (who would've though
  9. This. One of those guys you draft late and not worry where he is on the depth chart just like Kamara in '17. He'll be involved at some point and in a huge way. This offensive system can support two fantasy relevant RBs (considering those backs are good enough). I'd rather have this guy on my roster over some other mediocre back "who is the starter" in a much worse system.
  10. I'm in a league where we can flex a QB but I drafted Luck in my draft before he retired. I'm having a tough time deciding which QB to pick up out of these two for my third qb to roster. (4 pts per TD, PT per 20 passing yards, pt per 10 rushing yards, 6 pts per rushing TD, -1 pt per INT, 5 pts per 350 passing yards) Jacoby Brissett- He didn't do so bad in some games when he started a few years ago. The coaching staff and supporting staff has changed. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches for QBs and I think with all their supporting cast, he can be a solid QB2. Joe Flacco- I'm
  11. Yeah I don't think he'll top what Kamara did but this situation seems so similar to the Saints one a few years ago. Hill is that preseason guy, no matter his current role, just draft him on your roster and watch it all play out. I think this is one very late round pick that people might regret passing on His skill set fits the offense the best and this offense can make two rbs relevant.
  12. Marquise Goodwin finishes as a WR2- Was a 5th/6th rd pick at this time last year. Jimmy G's favorite WR. Justice Hill emerges close to what Kamara did in '17. Will Dissly finishes as top 10 TE- Someone needs to step up after Lockett for targets Larry Fitzgerald finishes top 20 WR- This offense will have a lot of completed passes. Zach Ertz finishes outside top 5 TE- Unlike last year, too many options for Wentz to throw to
  13. Speaking from experience, I did the same thing in an 18 round draft last year. Luckily I also took Chicago late but used the Jags week 1 and during Chicago's bye week and never used them again. I ended up dropping them before the fantasy playoffs. Someone picked them up, started them in RD 1 (the Derrick Henry game) and had an early exit.
  14. For what it's worth, turnover differential is a great metric in helping find value at defense each year. Sometimes Ds have years where the ball just bounces their way. It happens every single year. One glaring overvalued defense is Houston. They had a ratio of +5 in '15, -7 in '16, -12 in '17 but improved 25 points to +13 in '18. They faced a ton of bad QBs in '18 and their defense was completely healthy all year! This was the knock on their D the last few years before heading into last year. I'm not sure they will sustain all that luck with their health and they did lose a lot of key p
  15. He's better than this but how overrated of a fantasy pitcher is this guy? He won't get many wins. He'll hurt you in losses. His era and whip have been declining for a few years now. He can barely get through the sixth inning now so he won't get many qs. He's decent in strikeouts but no longer elite in this category. I was on the train heading into this year hoping he'd get the extra benefit of being in the NL with Ray Searage but there's something here mental with him and it's now fair to question, will he ever take that next step? Have we already seen his ceiling? This reminds me of J
  16. Was kind of pumped to win this guy on waivers this morning. 28 years old and former top prospect in Texas where he had flashes of being good but never consistently put it together and missed time due to TJ surgery. I'm buying though. I've been intrigued by this situation since February. He was brought over by Thad Levine who was the former GM of the Rangers. He never really had good coaching nor been in a great pitching environment. Fast forward to Minnesota in a much better pitching park with a pitching coach who has really turned around this entire pitching staff as a whole and getting
  17. Another bomb tonight. Anyone else think this guy resembles Jason Giambi?
  18. The talent gap between Rams LB and their cover corners is so wide it's unreal. I'm not surprised that the Raiders chose to attack the TE routes and won't be shocked if most of the Rams' opponents do the same. Fortunately Oakland doesn't face the Rams again this season. It's only Week 1. Buy Low.
  19. I'm out. Not going to stoop down to the level of teenagers.
  20. I play leagues with savvy people and try to be realistic. I'm not here to post monster lineups as if I'm playing with 11 other idiots.
  21. Both QBs have tremendous upside with excellent offensive coaching. Both TEs are value picks and are due for increase in targets this year. Ravens play the Bills Week 1 and Chicago home to Seattle Week 2 (Yeah Seattle is going to suck this year) RB is one of the most volatile positions. But yeah one of the "worst strategies you've ever seen" has led me to cash in many leagues in the past few decades
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