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Everything posted by Hanghow

  1. If Turner played as many games as Trout each year, the stolen bases would probably boost his value to easy top-3. As it is, all I'm saying is I'd readily take him in the 1st round. Our league boosts infielders, but Yahoo! has him there as more valuable on an average game basis than any other hitter who's played even 119 games. Maybe it's a shallow vs. deep league question of whether you'd prefer to take on the injury risk and potentially need replacement stats during some period.
  2. You must be talking about Trout; Trea played 162 last year.
  3. Am I missing something with Soto? He's had one day off since they clinched, which is pretty standard. Why is he expected to hardly play the rest of the week?
  4. As far as recent rookie success, teams have gotten far better at identifying and developing prospects. Add in modern service time manipulation, where talented prospects are only brought up when teams can feel reasonably assured they'll produce from day one, and there are real trends that would lead to rookies today producing better than rookies, say, ten years ago. The change to the baseballs was a wild card, but there are constantly unexpected trends that take the game in new directions. Everybody was pitching low, so hitters started swinging up. When offense was down after the steroid era, teams focused more on individual defense, which has taken a large step back again with aggressive shifting. These seemingly random variations are a regular part of the game. The baseball thing isn't exactly like that, but it was apparent early something was different. Any good manager needs to be ready to adjust to new information.
  5. I dropped at the last possible moment I could. Unless good news comes out before your deadline, I'd be ready to move on. I'd be surprised, at this point, if he doesn't get shut down.
  6. The change to the balls this year was a big wild card. I think traditional power wasn't a great asset this year, as guys who excel at making contact saw their power numbers all jump. I don't know if I'd completely call it "luck" because I've always seen this game as largely about identifying guys who are an adjustment or an environmental change away from breaking out. We knew LeMahieu, for example, had excellent contact skills, we knew about the Coors Field effect both positive and negative, we knew about his defensive value (which opened up his playing time), and we knew the porch at Yankee Stadium matched his opposite field flyball tendencies. It came together this year. Likewise, prospect people were well aware of Tatis, Alonso, and Hiura. Alvarez and Guerriel were guys with tools who took a step forward. There's luck involved, but preparation and strategy were a big part of that.
  7. And every major American team sport decides their championship this way. Does it have its faults? Of course, but at least whoever beats me will have to go directly through me to do it.
  8. I'll do my part. He became just the sixth pitcher with three or more career no-hitters today.
  9. If your theory carries any weight, I missed the boat to sell Acuna. It was only a matter of time before the slightest bump in the road knocked him off course. You can't give the kid special treatment; he'll walk all over everybody in the organization for the next ten years. When's it start being a problem? When he's 25, lazy, blasting teammates in the media, and openly asking to be traded? You know how you train puppies to not jump, bite, and be obnoxious because at some point, it stops being cute. That's the case in all walks of life; you can't let him get away with something Charlie Culbertson, for example, can't. It'll fracture the clubhouse and lead to a mess. Snitker did right by the organization and by Acuna. He's just in a brief slump and will be fine.
  10. Agreed; if there's room in the rules for streaming, I don't know why this wouldn't be okay. It's like outlawing defense. The streamer could always one-up you and get the guys they want two days in advance.
  11. I love the kid, but it wouldn't be necessary if he wasn't walking to first on a ball-in-play. You can't do that. Any leaders on the team are surely in the manager's corner and I'm not sure exactly how Acuna could possibly think he was in the right on this one. It's no big deal unless he makes it a big deal, and to his credit, he seems like he's taking ownership of it.
  12. The thing about "sell-high prospects" is they should probably be different depending on your contention window. If you're a few years away, Luis Robert is at the bottom of any sell-high list I would make up. The strikeouts make me worry about an adjustment period, but you'd be foolish to trade him away if you can ride out a year or two of lackluster production. He has the skillset to carry an offense in a few years. He's exactly the sort of player you should be gunning for. If you're already competing, that definitely changes. The high-strikeout guys, especially, I would try to move if you have a short contention window. Two "classes" of guys I'd generally view as "sell-high" candidates would include: High-profile pitchers: Injury risk + adjustment risk + reliever risk make me more leery of them than bats. Bat-only prospects: Time and time again, these guys tend to come up and get put in a platoon or sent back and forth between the minors and majors. If they struggle at all in the Majors, they usually see their way to the bench in fairly short order. Defensive value can usually buy a prospect some time to work through the adjustment period.
  13. Honeywell on a sell-high list is... something.
  14. ... with the added benefit that it limits looks for the opponents. Having May enter an October game late with a curveball that none of the opponents have seen could be the advantage that decides a playoff game. Unfortunate for fantasy; but totally understandable in real-life.
  15. Over the last 30 days, by the way, he has an 8.7% SwStr% (MLB season average is 11.1%) and a 37.7% Zone% (average is 42%); in that time, he's put up a 157 wRC+. Pitchers are treating him as one of the league's better hitters, he's 20, and he's backing it up. There are less than 10 players in baseball I'd trade him for straight-up in a dynasty league; maybe as few as four or five..
  16. Your points aren't going over anybody's head. They're just not good. Anybody who was a fan of Vlad and has changed their opinion after a half-season's worth of at-bats at age 20 is a fool. Likewise, anybody who had concerns about him and changed their opinion after the same half-season's of at-bats is a fool. Likewise, with anybody who thinks they've been vindicated, somehow. He's a hitter with huge upside who has a body type that raises some concerns about health and long-term defensive home. And besides that, you assume everybody in dynasties took him with a top-5 pick. There are a huge variety of leagues where he's gone in different years and at different spots and with different settings. The only thing I do know is that in all of these leagues, I'd rather have him than Chavis.
  17. I'm pretty sure the FSL exists just to see how hitters respond to adversity.
  18. He averages less than 5 IP per outing; the Rays would have 1-2 less innings to get in front; they'd have to hold any lead built up while he was in an extra 1-2 innings. Wins would take a big step back with more starts. Not to mention he'd have to earn those extra 1-2 innings against the 1-6 hitters on any given night. More starts are bad news; hopefully this changes or is a one-off.
  19. Just heard it's a strain and he's dtd on the Indians broadcast.
  20. There's no real good news in his Statcast numbers this year, but he missed a lot of time and the sample size isn't all that big. He performed like clockwork the last three years and everything is suddenly way down this year. I'm holding a while longer and hoping he gets it together for the H2H playoffs, but I'm in 1st place with a decent cushion. If I were fighting for a spot and needed immediate production, I'd probably feel okay cutting him loose.
  21. Pretty sure he's just playing in the Pan American games right now. I don't think it's anything to worry about.
  22. I'm not a redraft owner, but the piling on over a small sample here is a bit over-the-top. Since July 1, Urias is in the top 100 in xwOBA and has one of the biggest disparities between xwOBA and wOBA in the Majors. Since his recall, he has a 4:7 K:BB ratio. He looks much improved since his early stint with the team. Especially in a keeper league, now may be a good time to kick the tires and see if the current owner has noticed.
  23. Not only is he the primary RH 1B for the Rays, but they've been consistently hitting him leadoff in those matchups, too.
  24. Yeah, in the IL, the best 3 teams' OPS in 2018 were .753-.741-.729. This year, they're .836-.832-.820. It's a vastly different environment than it has been in the past.
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