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Posts posted by gsw

  1. 11 minutes ago, Magman said:


    People are coming in here claiming that the risk/reward did not justify drafting a rookie RB in the first round, not gloating that they could predict the future.  Situation is so fluid in the NFL (ex. Rams greatest show on Turf 2 in 2018 --> less than average offense in 2019).  Ultimately, we'll now never know if CEH would've lived up to his first round status absent Bell, but you certainly can't use that unknown to justify the first round selection, especially when it's plausible that the first game was an outlier instead of a data point on the upper end of 1-2 standard deviations from the mean of a Bell curve.  Pun intended. 

    So before the season started after Damien opted out, you're saying you didn't think he was worth a first round pick because this was my breakdown:


    -#1 offense in the league

    -#1 back in an Andy Reid offense

    -Chiefs spent major draft capital on him

    -Supposedly hand picked by Mahomes


    -He's a rookie


    I don't even own him (in fact in my main league I traded my pick away to go for "surefire" Michael Thomas instead) but to go back now with hindsight bias and say he was not worth a 1st round pick when all those factors were there is disingenuous.

    • Like 2
  2. 4 minutes ago, Magman said:


    "Too many weapons" is such a crutch argument for a starting RB.  I always cringe when I see it being used... Let's boil this down to prove the point and say you own an average (talent wise) starting RB.  Would you rather that player be on the worst offense in the league with no other meaningful weapons to move the ball (ex. Jets) or an offensive juggernaut with weapons all over the field that can move the ball at will?  The answer to that question will always be the offensive juggernaut b/c with it comes opportunities (yardage opportunities with increase time of possession and obviously scoring opportunities).  


    It's valid to point out that no1 could have foreseen that Bell was going to join the Chiefs 5 weeks into the year.  However, the risk/reward of drafting a rookie RB in the first round is typically not going to be there unless you come across a generational talent (ex. Barkley).  Ultimately, it comes down to talent evaluation to justify drafting a rookie RB that high and no1 can convince me that CEH was a generational talent.  If he was, managers wouldn't even be in this predicament b/c there would've been no need for the Chiefs to court Bell.



    Never did I say it was a crutch to be on a better offense.  I'm just saying his TD variability is going to be much higher since there are so many more mouths to feed in terms of scoring TDs.  Had Bell not become available, we could have easily seen games where CEH scores multiple TDs and he actually does live up to his first round status.  Now its not a possibility and the people coming in gloating certainly could predict the future couldn't they?

  3. Let's just be civil and not come in here gloating that you knew CEH would be a fantasy bust because there was no way anyone could have predicted that Le'veon Bell would be a free agent 5 games into the season.

    Before the season started and Damien decided not to play, the hype was certainly warranted for a first round pick.  The yardage has been pretty decent overall so he's delivered on that aspect.  However, people failed to realize then that since the Chiefs have so many weapons, his TD potential is actually more limited than other backs in the first round so he hasn't met the lofty expectations.

    Also, people comparing to Kareem Hunt is kind of unfair.  Most people had drafted Hunt in later rounds since Ware didn't get injured until closer to season started.  There was plenty of room for Hunt to outperform his ADP.  At round 1, there is no room for CEH to outperform unless he was scoring TDs every week.

    • Like 3
  4. 24 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

    For our fantasy teams yes. No coach is gonna want to unleash him on the ground. He takes way to many big hits. 

    I'd argue that he's taking too many big hits because he's not getting out of the pocket but instead holding the ball looking for a home run.

  5. 4 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

    Opponent with bad defense and good offense?  Check.

    Starting WR out, opening up snaps?  Check.

    Talented kid who the team loves as demonstrated by their getting him the ball in creative ways?  Check.

    Quarterback who has been on fire?  Check.

    Thursday night game featuring tired out defenses?  Check.


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