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Juan Nicasio 2011 Season Outlook


Ty Lawsome

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Didn't get to see this one, but 1 start, 0ER and a win....I'm a bit suprised at him only having 2K, so I'm very interested at hearing from those who saw it.

Either way, good start.

Looked decent, although a lot of long, flyball to the track, outs. As a Cardinals fan, that's all I saw before I turned it off B)

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Is this kid expected to stick around? Haven't been following his situation..

i'd like to see it, but i doubt it. he'll likely not return to Tulsa, but more likely Colorado Springs, while Aaron Cook returns. Which means it's just a matter of time before he's up again.

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I didn't get to actually watch his debut, but I'm very pleased w/ his stat line. To be clear, I like Nicasio's future a lot, I was just nervous about a MLB debut at this stage. As previously noted, it's more likely that Nicasio spends more time continuing his development in Triple-A w/ Colorado Springs than in MLB. However, Nicasio went from MILB sleeper to on the MLB radar rather rapidly this season due to a solid skill-set, so keep him on your watch list!

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Has topped out at 100, but throws 95-97 regularly, 85 change, has led the minors last season in innings, strikeouts, and wins.... just held the best hitting team in the majors to 6 hits and 2 walks through 7 (4 K's, but they should come soon). Not quite sure why Yahoo hasn't written the hype train article yet, but I'm sure it's coming. He'll clear waivers in most leagues on the 1st, curious to see what others thoughts are here but I'd think he's a must add. Should offer solid ratios and an above average K-rate.

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cook gave up 6 er in his last minor league start.

jim tracy didn't sound like he was ready to send nicasio back down just yet. he was very impressed with his poise and repertoire in his mlb debut. it's posted on the rockies website.

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Even if he does end up getting sent back down, I think he showed more than enough that the pressure is definitely on Cook and Mortensen. The Rockies now know they have a guy down in the minors that can step in and contribute right this second. So I think if someone else struggles, a change will be made much quicker. Either way, this is definitely not the last we'll see of him in 2011.

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It's been confirmed that he will be getting another start, which will be Friday in San Francisco.

Cook is now going to make another rehab start this week, and then supposedly rejoin the team after that. It still seems like a fluid situation on how the rotation will shake out, though. Cook's last start in AAA was supposed to be his final one, and it's not like he suffered any set backs. So it almost seems like they're stalling to give Nicasio a true shot to earn the spot. But who really knows what will happen there.

What I do know is that I definitely like a matchup in San Francisco against the Giants' mediocre lineup (even more so without Posey) a lot more than I did his debut at Coors against the Cards. So if he was able to throw 7 shutout innings in his first start, you'd have to think he has a pretty good shot to repeat that kind of success in SF.

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I understand the hype here. But guys his secondary pitches are not that great. I think he still is lacking that key OUT PITCH. He's getting by with a great fastball that he has great control with but you need more then that to really own in the MLB. Keep an eye on him, and in keeper leagues he's a must add, but in standard 12-team mixed leagues he's not a "must-add" but someone to just keep evaluating with each start, and if you're desperate for SP then get him.

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I understand the hype here. But guys his secondary pitches are not that great. I think he still is lacking that key OUT PITCH. He's getting by with a great fastball that he has great control with but you need more then that to really own in the MLB. Keep an eye on him, and in keeper leagues he's a must add, but in standard 12-team mixed leagues he's not a "must-add" but someone to just keep evaluating with each start, and if you're desperate for SP then get him.

+1

I only watched a few innings of his debut, but that's what struck me about him as well.

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+1

I only watched a few innings of his debut, but that's what struck me about him as well.

I watched it as well, but I think going against St. Louis is what made his fastball and off speed stuff look "not so effective" as per the strikeout. His track record in the minors indicates a huge strikeout machine, with good K/BB ratios. Cards made a lot of contact against him, but I think the overall peripherals is what was more important. I have an odd feeling we'll be seeing a 7+K game against SF this Friday.

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I understand the hype here. But guys his secondary pitches are not that great. I think he still is lacking that key OUT PITCH. He's getting by with a great fastball that he has great control with but you need more then that to really own in the MLB. Keep an eye on him, and in keeper leagues he's a must add, but in standard 12-team mixed leagues he's not a "must-add" but someone to just keep evaluating with each start, and if you're desperate for SP then get him.

As a Nicasio owner in a dynasty league, I agree. The vast majority of prospects/rookies can be ignored in standard size redraft leagues (today there was an article on this topic on my favorite subscriber fantasy baseball site). I've been praising Nicasio in the MILB forum, but here in the MLB forum, I've only meant to alert redraft GMs that this is a talent to observe for the future. My hope presently is that Nicasio continues to develop & learn from each outing, good or bad.

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Uggg.. in an NL only league, 35 max moves..used 12..need SP badly too...decisions decisions decisions.. if he stays he could be a very nice addition. He goes back down ,and i pretty much completely wasted a move...

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The hard-throwing Nicasio shut down the best hitting team in the majors as he pitched seven solid innings in his major league debut as the Rockies knocked the St. Louis Cardinals in a 15-4 rout on Saturday night.

Advice: Nicasio surrendered just six hits and one unearned run after being recalled from Double-A Tulsa to make a spot start.The 24-year-old may have just made a compelling case to stick around a while longer as the Rockies tinker with their rotation in the wake of the season-ending elbow injury to Jorge De La Rosa. Fantasy owners could do worse than grabbing Nicasio, who speaks little English and used Ubaldo Jimenez to translate for him.

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Juan Nicasio, SP

Organization: Rockies

Current Level: Double-A

Statistics: 5-1 W-L; 2.22 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; 63:10 over 56 2/3 IPs

40-man roster: Yes

Opportunity Rating: 5 (out of 10)

Talent Rating: 8 (out of 10)

Obstacle(s): No Triple-A experience; pitching in Coors Field

First of all, let’s address that Opportunity Rating. The Rockies announced Wednesday that Nicasio will be making his MLB debut this Saturday, so while it’s a 10 right now, it’s listed as 5 to take into account the season going forward. This looks to be a one-time spot start for a couple of reasons: 1) It’s really more of an emergency recall than a long-awaited debut, as Colorado is dealing with the fallout of Jorge De La Rosa’s season-ending torn ulnar collateral ligament (TJ surgery); and 2) Nicasio has yet to pitch at all in Triple-A. Granted, the 24-year-old right-hander, who signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2006, has good stuff and has put up some very nice numbers — especially that 63:10 K:BB — but as for his 2011 prognosis? Let’s temper expectations a bit. Especially for Saturday.

Nicasio is going up against the Cardinals. And Jaime Garcia. At Coors Field. Even if Matt Holliday (quad) isn’t back yet, that’s a true welcome-to-the-majors setting. If he gets knocked around a bit, it will only increase the already strong likelihood that he is back in the minors after the start. If he pitches well? Even then things aren’t exactly that interesting, fantasy-wise, for Nicasio. The rub is that Aaron Cook (fractured right finger) is likely to return by the end of May or first week of June, and the Rockies have other rotation options at their disposal, including the injured Esmil Rogers, who is working his way back from an injured lat, and former first round pick Greg Reynolds, a recent recall currently pitching in relief who has started each of his 58 minor-league games.

The fact of the matter is, for Nicasio to have any real chance of impacting the 2011 fantasy landscape, he needs to distinguish himself immediately — which is where the tough circumstances of Saturday’s start come into play — so that he makes the Rockies at least consider the possibility that he could be a better rotation option than Rogers and Reynolds. Otherwise, he’s better served continuing his development in the minors while Colorado gets what it can out of those guys. Frankly, that’s the much more likely result of all of this.

All that said, there’s plenty to like here, particularly in keeper leagues. Nicasio’s control has become impeccable: His walk rate is just 2.0 BB/9 in his career, but it’s actually been even better (1.7/9) since 2009. That will certainly help in the bigs. The flip side, though, is that because he’s around the plate so much, he tends to give up his share of base knocks. It’s not exactly surprising, then, that he’s allowed 8.9 hits per 9 in his career. While that has improved a bit — 48 hits in his 56 2/3 innings this year — as his repertoire (mid-90s fastball, two breaking balls and a developing change) has advanced, he’s still surrendered at least as many hits as innings pitched in four of his nine starts. And remember, this is in Double-A. How is that going to translate to the major leagues, where hitters connect more frequently and do more damage when they make contact? Especially at Coors Field. Bottom line? He’s a spec add in deep NL-only leagues where you can store him on your bench and see what happens. But it’s all but guaranteed the 2011 impact will be minimal, while offering keeper leaguers a chance to get a look at an enticing arm for 2012.

ETA: Uh, now. Then depending on how he fares and the stability of the Rockies’ rotation, he could either get a few more outings in short order — or not return to Colorado this season until August or September, if at all.

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