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Jimmer Fredette 2011 Offseason Outlook


DrGonzo

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My bad!

I was thinking of Fantasy bball!

ok, you got me. (but trust me, i'm not the only one who got confused!)

but still, we should be talking about Fantasy bball!

but who cares. it's semantics.

Top 12 are where the best rookies are.

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As Jay Bilas said (and I second it), Fredette isn't Adam Morrison. He's not JJ Redick. And he's not Eddie House.

He has the long range and consistency of Redick and House, and he also has the offensive versatility of Morrison. And like Morrison and Redick, he's white. That's where the similarities end.

Unlike ALL of those players, he has a very effective cross-over, can take his man off the dribble, and is already solid at penetrating and finishing around the rim. Outside of his elite offensive abilities, he's also a good floor leader with solid vision and instincts on offense. Anytime you average nearly 29 points per game and still dish out over 4 assists per game, you probably have some skills as a passer.

Does he need work as a true PG? Absolutely. But even Steve Nash didn't average over 7 assists per game in college. He didn't become an elite passer until his 4th or 5th season, and still wasn't the player we know him as now until about his 9th or 10th year in the league.

Fredette can and will score. Count on that. Anyone providing an argument that says he can't either is a hater or hasn't watched him enough. Plain and simple.

Whether he can lead a team and effectively be an NBA (passing) point guard remains to be determined. Whether he can defend at the NBA level remains to be determined, as well. However, athletically, Fredette was right there in combine drills with Irving, Walker, and Knight, so he is physically able to do anything they do. It will all come down to: 1. do the Kings care/want him to play defense? 2. does he want to play defense bad enough?

Outside of those two question marks, there is no question this kid can play at a high level. Can he stop Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and the other handlful of elite NBA point guards? No, but here's two things no one talks about:

1. NO ONE can stop those guys consistently.

and

2. THEY probably can't stop HIM.

None of this matters until the lockout ends and we get rolling, but I'm extremely confident that the hate on Fredette is ill-advised. Even moreso because he landed in a system and with enough talent that he won't have to be the number one option and he can just play his game.

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For guys in dynasty leagues, where would you rank him fantasy was amongst the incoming crop of rookies? I've been trying to figure this out, and I'm really not sure... but I think you could make an argument for him possibly going 3rd.

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As Jay Bilas said (and I second it), Fredette isn't Adam Morrison. He's not JJ Redick. And he's not Eddie House.

He has the long range and consistency of Redick and House, and he also has the offensive versatility of Morrison. And like Morrison and Redick, he's white. That's where the similarities end.

Unlike ALL of those players, he has a very effective cross-over, can take his man off the dribble, and is already solid at penetrating and finishing around the rim. Outside of his elite offensive abilities, he's also a good floor leader with solid vision and instincts on offense. Anytime you average nearly 29 points per game and still dish out over 4 assists per game, you probably have some skills as a passer.

Does he need work as a true PG? Absolutely. But even Steve Nash didn't average over 7 assists per game in college. He didn't become an elite passer until his 4th or 5th season, and still wasn't the player we know him as now until about his 9th or 10th year in the league.

Fredette can and will score. Count on that. Anyone providing an argument that says he can't either is a hater or hasn't watched him enough. Plain and simple.

Whether he can lead a team and effectively be an NBA (passing) point guard remains to be determined. Whether he can defend at the NBA level remains to be determined, as well. However, athletically, Fredette was right there in combine drills with Irving, Walker, and Knight, so he is physically able to do anything they do. It will all come down to: 1. do the Kings care/want him to play defense? 2. does he want to play defense bad enough?

Outside of those two question marks, there is no question this kid can play at a high level. Can he stop Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and the other handlful of elite NBA point guards? No, but here's two things no one talks about:

1. NO ONE can stop those guys consistently.

and

2. THEY probably can't stop HIM.

None of this matters until the lockout ends and we get rolling, but I'm extremely confident that the hate on Fredette is ill-advised. Even moreso because he landed in a system and with enough talent that he won't have to be the number one option and he can just play his game.

A large part of the concern with Jimmer is that, like Morrison, he gets his amazing scoring totals by being great at making tough shots. While that's a useful talent to have, it's a terrible thing to have to rely on, and effectively caps your potential efficiency very quickly. I'd much rather have a guy who is very talented at getting easy shots than a guy who has made his mark by getting difficult shots and making them anyway, and Adam Morrison is still a huge warning sign for GMs who see that tendency. I promise you, I am as sick of the tendency for intraracial comparisons as you are, where white players are always compared to other white players, but sometimes the comparison is the most accurate one we have. Writing every white-white comparison off as only based on their race is just as ill-advised as only making comparisons along racial lines.

Steve Nash is a terrible comparison just because he is a living exception to the career path that 99% of players take. A player who started his career the way Nash did had maybe a 1 in a thousand chance of turning into a player with multiple all-star appearances, and far less of a chance of receiving multiple MVPs. Plenty of people have matched Nash's first few years, and pointing to the one of thousands who made it is just setting yourself up to be disappointed.

The defensive issues also don't really seem like an open question the way you make them out to be. There's little use asking if he can defend NBA-caliber talent if he couldn't even defend anybody in a mid-major conference in college. It's not just the elite all-stars I'm worried about, it's the way any average NBA point guard would go off against the type of "defense" he played in BYU, and I'm stretching the definition of the word defense here. This isn't a minimal concern, either. Defense is half of the game, and plenty of scouts have talked about how his lack of defense effort was more extreme than anything they had seen in years.

I also don't like the environment he has found himself in nearly as much as you do. Surrounded by a team of shoot-first chuckers who don't give any effort on defense, Fredette is going to have a tough time learning any other way. If you would prefer to discuss results rather than philosophy, look at what the staff there did with Cousins and Evans last year. Despite a clear abundance of talent, both of them shot a lot on very low efficiency, and offered nothing else on the court. Cousins managed to accompany that horrendous shooting by leading the league in fouls and turnovers per minute by a huge margin, putting up numbers in those categories higher than any player had done in close to a decade for fouls, and even longer for turnovers. This does not seem like the right coaching staff for an offensively gifted youngster with severe holes in his game who desperately needs to change his attitude toward defense; in fact, it might be the worst in the league.

You don't need to pull out the "you haven't watched him play enough" card on me. I totally agree, I haven't, I'm much more of an NBA guy, but I'm going off what I've read from multiple scouts and analysts who know way more than you or I do about evaluating talent across different levels of competition, always a very difficult game. I picked out some of the least controversial things, anyway; I'm sure you wouldn't disagree that much of Fredette's offense came off of difficult, contested shots, and that his defense was a glaring weakness, nor that Steve Nash's career path is incredibly unlikely to expect anyone to emulate, or that Sacramento has a lot of shoot-first players with talents very redundant with Jimmer's, who the coaching staff utterly failed with last year. I'm not saying definitively that he'll be a bust, but those are the main concerns, and it's very difficult to see him succeeding without drastically changing to fix those things. Your post, however optimistic, gave me little reason to think he can or will.

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For guys in dynasty leagues, where would you rank him fantasy was amongst the incoming crop of rookies? I've been trying to figure this out, and I'm really not sure... but I think you could make an argument for him possibly going 3rd.

I am in the same boat and in need of a guard (Irving will be off the board by the time I pick). I am torn between Jimmer (I don't actually know too much about him but the hype machine has been working overtime), Kemba (he has a lot of heart but TR likes him so he will most likely be a flop) and Knight (severely turnover prone).

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  • 5 months later...

I watched the first half tonight of the preseason game. You can't always tell a lot from the preseason, but Jimmer had 10 points and 2 assists and 2 three pointers. Defense was mediocre, but not atrocious. The 10 points he scored came super easy. A few times if Tyreke or Thornton would have had a brain, they could have found Jimmer wide open for a 3 but instead they took contested 18 foot fall aways. I am still not sure how good Jimmer can be, but if he plays significant minutes he is going to put the ball in the hoop. He can create his own shot off the dribble, and if his man leaves him he knocks it down.

Jimmer will be a fun guy to watch this year and see just how good he can be.

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I am in the same boat and in need of a guard (Irving will be off the board by the time I pick). I am torn between Jimmer (I don't actually know too much about him but the hype machine has been working overtime), Kemba (he has a lot of heart but TR likes him so he will most likely be a flop) and Knight (severely turnover prone).

I had this same choice in my league (except I had 2 picks). I took Kemba and Jimmer. Knight's 39% fg scared me considering he wasnt even the focus of the defense. The college defenses focused entirely on stopping Kemba and Jimmer and they both still shot respectable from the field (43 for Kemba and 45 for Jimmer). Knight's shooting percentage worries me more than his turnovers.

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I watched the first half tonight of the preseason game. You can't always tell a lot from the preseason, but Jimmer had 10 points and 2 assists and 2 three pointers. Defense was mediocre, but not atrocious. The 10 points he scored came super easy. A few times if Tyreke or Thornton would have had a brain, they could have found Jimmer wide open for a 3 but instead they took contested 18 foot fall aways. I am still not sure how good Jimmer can be, but if he plays significant minutes he is going to put the ball in the hoop. He can create his own shot off the dribble, and if his man leaves him he knocks it down.

Jimmer will be a fun guy to watch this year and see just how good he can be.

He looks small out there, like barely six feet. He's not close to 6-2. He's going to have a lot of trouble defending. The shooting ability is special though. I think he'd be solid in a sixth man role, where he can come in and be the focal point of the offense and defend some weaker offensive players.

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He looks small out there, like barely six feet. He's not close to 6-2. He's going to have a lot of trouble defending. The shooting ability is special though. I think he'd be solid in a sixth man role, where he can come in and be the focal point of the offense and defend some weaker offensive players.

He is about a 1/2 inch shorter than Stephen Curry. They were standing right beside each other and I paused the TV. The Kings just had jim guarding the SF all night who were all 6'6" so he looked shorter than he was.

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this guy looks more like hinrich to me than jj redick. what's good with fredette is he knows how to create space using his body as rookie. he definitely has range, and his confidence is THIS high right now.

i definitely believe he's worth an add considering he's playing behind Evans and it's the Kings he's playing for. i've seen how Thornton play..dood's IQ is like Anthony Randolph's lol. Eventually the coach has to realize that it takes more than athleticism to win in this level..and it's possible Thornton/Salmons get benched for Fredette.

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He can shoot. No doubt about that. I think he will back-up the 1 and 2 this season while being a Lou Williams type player. A sniper off the bench as it were. I can see him approaching 25mpg. Especially with Evans injury history and Thornton's proclivity to anger coaches. Unfortunately he has a point guards body and a shooting guards mentality. He loves to hover around the 3pt range.

Klay Thompson looked ok.

I was actually quite impressed with Charles Jenkins. I doubt he will see many minutes this season, but he has a high motor and a lot of hustle in a solid frame.

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I liked Jenkins as well. If I were the Kings though I would bring Thornton off the bench. He is a dead end on offense, and just makes bad plays. Offense was working best when it was initiated through the Jimmer dribble drive. I would start Tyreke, Jimmer, Salmons, JJ, and Cousins. Bring Thornton as your first man off the bench depending on what you need. If Jimmer isn't cutting it on defense, if they think they can play small ball take out Salmons, .... you get the point.

The Kings seemed a lot better when Jimmer was on the court. He didn't demand a lot of touches, but he got a lot of attention. If they truly want Cousins to be more of a focal point in the post, they are going to need to prevent their guards from jacking up contested 20 footers (Thornton and Evans).

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I have to admit, I thought Jimmer was going to be a washout. But no question that he looked like a legit NBA player ... at least on the offensive end.

There will always be a place in the NBA for a guy that can get his own shot and can create for others ... even if he's a defensive liability.

But, he'll never be a Steve Nash or Deron Williams. Those guys can finish at the rim and Jimmer's shot got swatted any time he took the ball to the hole.

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But, he'll never be a Steve Nash or Deron Williams. Those guys can finish at the rim and Jimmer's shot got swatted any time he took the ball to the hole.

I don't think that you would have said the same about Nash or D-Will after their first preseason NBA games either. I'm not saying that Jimmer's going to be an MVP or anything, but that in itself is a pretty ridiculous statement.

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  • 3 weeks later...

He looks lost at the moment. He doesnt have a position to be honest. He cant defend wilt chamberlin and he's dead. I think he needs to play in a gimmick, fantasy friendly offense like PHX, NYK, or GSW to be relevant unless he can work on his handle and play some point. He is just getting abused on D these days. Sorry to be bearish, but I just wasnt a fan of his coming into the league.

Anyone else think this guy is going to get more and more PT as the season goes on? Sac-town is a mess, I can see him be very productive if he can get 30+

Thoughts?

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  • 3 weeks later...

I wonder how many people took Rotoworld recommendation and drop this dude? He lit it up tonight.

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Not sure if 5-13 is really "Lighting it up", but he also had 6 Assists, 3 Rebounds, 1 Steal with the 20 points.

That said, he was getting like 3.2 PPG in the last 5 games headed in.

I already have Rudy Fernandez, so essentially the same type almost.

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