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Tim Lincecum 2012 Season Outlook


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That was a great article, but to include Lincecum was stupid. I commented in the comments section (Larry Yocum). Lincecum doesn't do the inverted W and is already past the trouble years for the majo

TJ can get anyone at any time. This is true. However, I believe that if we did a study, we would find that that the overwhelming majority come early in a guys' career because of their mechanics. So

those with DVRs or no day job/school can get a good look at Lincy via ESPN2 today. last outing or 2 were of the minor league variety. i love the "Timmy crowd". people with long hair, the smell of gras

Figures the one year I draft him and he's an absolute mess. This really sucks. Well, if I had any thoughts of dropping Bauer before, I certainly don't now. Hopefully, I hit a HR with him. Otherwise, I might be effed.

No one is going to want to trade for him, so you'll have to just bite the bullet.

He could get his velocity back but I'm not counting on it.

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Another thing you have to at least ponder is how dedicated he is right now, considering what all he's accomplished so fast in his Big league career. I guess there is the Hall of Fame and several more million to make, and maybe another world championship or two, but if his career ends tomorrow, he's been pretty damn awesome, IMO. I know it may be hard for some of you to believe, but some of these guys just lose interest and focus, thinking they have nothing else to prove. Of course that wasn't the case when he was called up to the Big leagues.

...What? It's widely assumed that Lincecum will get a $200mil+ contract after 2013, and he and his agent have been nitpicking with the Giants over $2mil in arbitration this past offseason. Motivation has NOTHING to do with Tim's early struggles.

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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/mlb/40310/13/tims-trying-times

The silver lining for all three is that their issues appear mechanical, and not injury related. Lincecum, in particular, has gone through prolonged funks in the past only to emerge unscathed and dominant. His velocity was not an issue Wednesday.

Really ?

Not an issue ?

He couldn't touch 91 after the 1st inning

http://oi40.tinypic.com/rc7wk2.jpg

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The velocity drop is definitely concerning but it is still too early to panic. Any pitcher can look like garbage at Coors. He's still getting K's, which is good news.

Edited by yoda
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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/mlb/40310/13/tims-trying-times

The silver lining for all three is that their issues appear mechanical, and not injury related. Lincecum, in particular, has gone through prolonged funks in the past only to emerge unscathed and dominant. His velocity was not an issue Wednesday.

Really ?

Not an issue ?

He couldn't touch 91 after the 1st inning

http://oi40.tinypic.com/rc7wk2.jpg

.

I just went through about 15 pitchers velocity numbers for this year and just about everyone is down from years past. It takes some pitchers time to get their velocity back.

Guys like Sabathia, Josh Johnson and Lincecum could be in trouble, but its more likely the cold weather and mechanics that are the cause and not anything more concerning.

I wouldn't pay top dollar for Lincecum, but If I can get him for a decent deal, i would jump at the chance.

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You can't trade him now. As mentioned above you won't get anything close to what he's worth. Just keep running him out there and keep your fingers crossed.

I still think that he wont have a worse year then in 2010. he is still getting his Ks and he still does play in the NL West. Even if he doesnt have his best stuff he is still going to face the inferior lineups and pitch in big ballparks.

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He is just like Felix, even if his velocity dropped he can be elite. His change up is putrid and his breaking pitches all have looked fine. He may not be,an ELITE ace, but he will be right near the 7-10th best starter by years end.

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He is just like Felix, even if his velocity dropped he can be elite. His change up is putrid and his breaking pitches all have looked fine. He may not be,an ELITE ace, but he will be right near the 7-10th best starter by years end.

Less velocity also means less mph difference between that change up and his FB. Like Fangraphs showed, yesterday the difference was only 7 mph where it normally is 9 mph. It's still too early too panic but it's definitely something to monitor.

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Less velocity also means less mph difference between that change up and his FB. Like Fangraphs showed, yesterday the difference was only 7 mph where it normally is 9 mph. It's still too early too panic but it's definitely something to monitor.

Felix fastball and change up have had 5 mph of separation and no one seems to be concerned. In fact he's only had 4 to 5 mph difference between his change and fastball the last 3 years, but like Lincecum the arm action and movement on the pitch is so elite it throws hitters off still.

Edited by Cmilne23
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Felix is 6-3/225, 2 yrs younger and he hasn't showed, like LIncecum, any sign of decline in the past 2 years

Felix had quite a down turn in statistics from 2010 to 2011 era jumped from 2.27 to 3.47. Lincecum improved in 2011 on his 2010 campaign. His k rates have been coming down but he's still going to supply plenty of them. I just don't get fan graphs telling people to be concerned with one guy with diminished velo, but then say Felix can be fine. Both have similar work loads, Lincecum has never had any injury concerns. I don't own either guy, but if I did I would not be concerned with either.

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Felix had quite a down turn in statistics from 2010 to 2011 era jumped from 2.27 to 3.47. Lincecum improved in 2011 on his 2010 campaign. His k rates have been coming down but he's still going to supply plenty of them. I just don't get fan graphs telling people to be concerned with one guy with diminished velo, but then say Felix can be fine. Both have similar work loads, Lincecum has never had any injury concerns. I don't own either guy, but if I did I would not be concerned with either.

Felix checked out last year when he realized the offense was not going to score any runs. Not a good sign, but last year's jump wasn't a real decline as it was he seemed to not be engaged as when he gave up the first run he was getting a loss.

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Again, does anyone know why he stopped throwing his curve ball? He threw it at a rate of only 6.4% last year down from 18.2% in 2009 and 16.4% in 2010 while he threw his slider at a rate of 24.1% last year up from 7.1 and 7.2%.

That's a drastic shift in pitching style.

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No one is going to want to trade for him, so you'll have to just bite the bullet.

He could get his velocity back but I'm not counting on it.

Not true. I'll gladly give up Dan Hudson for Lincecum and in fact that offer is being debated by the Lincy owner in my league (per email)

Felix checked out last year when he realized the offense was not going to score any runs. Not a good sign, but last year's jump wasn't a real decline as it was he seemed to not be engaged as when he gave up the first run he was getting a loss.

Uh, this is certainly subjective and not quantifiable. Felix "checked out"?

Edited by bbythepier
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Again, does anyone know why he stopped throwing his curve ball? He threw it at a rate of only 6.4% last year down from 18.2% in 2009 and 16.4% in 2010 while he threw his slider at a rate of 24.1% last year up from 7.1 and 7.2%.

That's a drastic shift in pitching style.

I am guessing because he was not as succesful in 2010, so he try to change his pitch patterns, in 2011, and it was proven to be more succesful

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Again, does anyone know why he stopped throwing his curve ball? He threw it at a rate of only 6.4% last year down from 18.2% in 2009 and 16.4% in 2010 while he threw his slider at a rate of 24.1% last year up from 7.1 and 7.2%.

That's a drastic shift in pitching style.

A couple of things in my guess.

1) The better pitches for Lincy are those that come out of his hand looking like a fastball but do something different at the end. Sliders and changeups look like his fastball. The curve is sort of a roller that comes out of his hand "up", almost tipping the pitch. (e.g. Kershaw)

2) He doesn't have great control with it. So if batters give up on the pitch but it's rarely in the strike zone, it tends to become a neutral or negative value pitch.

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I value your opinion, fellow Giant fan. I like your optimism. That said...I do truly believe something is wrong with Lincey other than mechanics. Mechanics cannot explain the precipitous decline in velo and his peripherals. That giant difference in speed between his FB and CH was his bread in butter. That difference has dropped to pedestrian levels, and with his middling FB speed now, and his abandonment of his slider, that has left him vulnerable. That, and the league has finally caught up with his bizarre delivery and are no longer as fooled by it. Not good. I love Lincey. But I think there's something up here with shoulder/elbow that's being hidden. I will be pleasantly surprised if it turns out not to be the case.

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A couple of things in my guess.

1) The better pitches for Lincy are those that come out of his hand looking like a fastball but do something different at the end. Sliders and changeups look like his fastball. The curve is sort of a roller that comes out of his hand "up", almost tipping the pitch. (e.g. Kershaw)

2) He doesn't have great control with it. So if batters give up on the pitch but it's rarely in the strike zone, it tends to become a neutral or negative value pitch.

Good response, the control point is very valid. Personally, I think he should reincorporate it as it is even slower than his change up so there's a greater speed differential from his fastball and it completely changes the batters eye level. Using it again would make his fastball play up even faster.

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