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William Powell 2012 Season Outlook


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Again, you might be wise to refrain from accusing everyone else of not bringing facts to the table when they give you multiple football research websites citing their argument. At this point its pretty irritating reading the defiant attitude.

Then ignore me if I'm so ignorant. Because it's not me going out of my way quoting your posts. It's me defending a post that you quoted me in originally and you seem awful quick to try and counter anything I say with anything but facts.

Highlight a single fact in your last post. No they don't tell you the exact equation for the ranking in terms of "adjusted line yards". If they do somewhere in there and I just missed it in all of my ignorance, please be a doll for everyone and type it out for us to see.

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My favorite thing about this thread is that it's the worst in the forum, it's so bad I actually like it, and even respect it in a sick way. It's a hideously diseased monstrosity out of the late night

Just read that Powell only has one testicle, but it's huge. Starting him with confidence.

The level of delusion in this thread is astonishing

I was suspended this past week for violating the Rotoworld Forums Code of Conduct.

Otherwise this thread would be at least 50 pages long by now.

William Powell had the best opportunity to carve out a starting role out of all of the flier RB's.

Now, he's clearly at the top of the totem pole in AZ. It's extremely doubtful that Hypen (LaRod Stephens-Howling) will handle more than 5 carries a game, as long as Powell is healthy and performing.

It should also be noted that Powell may be used more in protection than Hyphen simply because he weighs more and is almost certainly the better pass-blocker (not to mention he was previously handling 3rd down work while Hyphen was out).

The concussion doesn't worry me as long as he plays this week or next. Lots of NFL players have had concussions, Powell's doesn't appear to be anything significant. One concussion doesn't instantly turn you into Jahvid Best.

William Powell's upside is tremendous. The Cardinals O-line looks dismal, yes. But if Powell's ability is able to trump a poor O-line, or the O-line is able to find some sort of solidity, Powell should easily be an RB2 with upside.

POW POW POWELL WHEELS!

Actually, another way to put it. Do you consider Powell an "RB2 with upside" who is startable now, or only if he proves himself by trumping a poor O-line? If he has to prove himself first, then isn't that a little like saying he is easily an RB2 with upside if he proves himself to be an RB2 with upside?

Are you starting him in any of the leagues you have him in?

I'm really pulling for the guy. If you're assertion is that he CAN be a stud if he can prove himself a stud, then I suppose I'd go along with that since it's a pretty low-risk assertion. I haven't been able to bring myself to start him in any leagues yet, because until he proves himself to be an RB2 with upside, I think he's nothing but a flier like any other flier, no better, no worse.

My process when picking up prospective players is pretty simple:

If you theoretically pick up a player, they're either going to pan out, or they aren't.

If they pan out, you'll be keeping that player.

If they don't pan out, you'll be dropping that player.

It's really that simple.

So neither of those arguments are good enough to decide whether or not to actually roster a particular player in the first place.

That decision should be based on what you think their upside is.

I don't bother rostering a player who I think only has the potential to be a flex/RB2 caliber producer in my starting lineup. I feel that's setting your aim far too low.

I only roster players that I think have WR2 with upside potential, RB2 with upside potential, etc.

Whether or not they achieve that is never a guarantee. But if I don't feel they have that potential upside, I typically don't roster that player at all unless it's as a single-use bye week fill-in.

A lot of my players on my bench are speculative pickups, and that group of players is constantly cycled as I get a chance to evaluate each of them.

Against BUF, I consider Powell an RB2 with upside, assuming he gets 12-15 carries. For PPR formats, it would be nice if he also got a few receptions. I can't guarantee any of those workloads, obviously no one can with any certainty at this point.

That's why I stated, you pick up a player:

If he pans out, you keep that player.

If he doesn't pan out, you drop that player.

We won't know for certain if Powell will / won't pan out until at least after this game (but I wouldn't immediately drop him after this game even if he doesn't perform up to expectations). This game is for all analytical purposes the first time we'll likely have a real chance to evaluate a full regular season performance from him.

That of course, also depends on how the workload split goes between Powell, Hyphen, and Smith. If Hyphen gets the majority of the work, and Powell is still the change of pace guy this game, I think that dropping Powell based solely on that would be a mistake. Because we again wouldn't have yet had the opportunity to see what Powell could do given a full workload of carries/snaps.

Ultimately, the question you should be asking is, do I feel that Powell's potential upside remains that of an RB2 with upside? The answer to that is a resounding YES.

As far as if I'm feeling comfortable enough to actually start Powell this week, I wouldn't say "comfortable" is the word I'd use. I'll admit, the risk of the gamble could fall either way. However, I definitely feel that the factors involved here (Beanie Wells + Ryan Williams out of the way now, Hyphen not the kind of RB that is meant for a lead back role, Powell being used previously on 3rd downs / no huddle) suggest that Powell has a very good chance of having a nice game here.

As far as thought process goes, in the one league that I'm forced to set my roster by the first game of the week (I hate that format), which means I have to have it set by the start of the Thursday game tonight, I am starting William Powell in my FLEX spot. Previously I had Donald Brown penciled in there, but that obviously went out the window with his knee surgery. Because it's FLEX, I could have started a TE like Rudolph, a WR like Avery, or some of the other RB's on my roster (Vick Ballard, Alex Green).

But ultimately out of those guys, if I have to gamble on which of them has the best chance to put up 100 yards + a TD, I feel the most comfortable with William Powell this week.

Beyond this week, I can't say with any certainty. You don't have to set your lineup two or three weeks in advance, so I find that mostly irrelevant. We'll get a chance to see if William Powell performs or not this weekend, and what the workload given to him by the coaches ends up being.

If you have him on your roster, you'll get the chance to decide whether or not to keep him after this week's game. If you don't have him on your roster, you don't even get the chance to make that decision.

That's why we hype him in the first place, so you can get him on your roster and at least have that opportunity.

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I honestly have no idea why people are arguing. He will either turn out to be something, of which all of us who picked him up will keep him, or he won't amount to much, where we would just move on to the next guy. It is truly impossible to predict.

Everyone is just taking a flyer on this guy, no one drafted him high counting on him to be a quality RB. We picked him up from the FA's, so very low risk. We did not spend a ton to get him, and if he pans out, then great, if not, then you move on to the next guy. No one knows how he will turn out. If he starts this week, the Bills run defense is not very good, so maybe he can take advantage of it. But again, who knows how good this guy is. It is a wait and see process. Obviously some have high hopes for him, which is fine, and others are taking a more cautious approach. He might turn into something, and he might not. But that is the name of the game. We picked him up, not spending a ton to get him. So if he does not turn out, at least we tried, but if he does turn into something, then those who did pick him up will be excited.

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Ya, you can argue schedule all you want but how does Arizona's schedule get any easier this season? They get the Bills, Jets, Falcons that rank lower half of the league, but the rest they get Seattle, San Fran twice, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Rams again. You are saying they struggled run blocking because they had a tough schedule, well they still face the gauntlet coming up so what should our expectations be with the Cardinals run game now?

Yes that is still a very tough schedule to run against. But it's exponentially better than having to run against the #1, #3, #8, #12, and (an under rated) #18 teams against the rush in your first 5 games.

Also don't be so sure that Seattle's run defense isn't better than The Bears. As well as expect The Rams to end the season better than 18th vs the run.

Basically to me that is 40% of your games have been played against the #1 and #2 run defense, that will make it difficult to run.

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Also, I feel about as good about William Powell's chances of having a good game this week as I felt when I started Ramses Barden the week that he had his big game.

But keep in mind, just because Barden had a big game didn't mean I was starting Barden for the rest of the year without fail. You need to constantly re-evaluate the situation for each of the players on your team, every week.

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Again I'm not saying this line is a great line, but a below average to average line, yes. They are by no means a bottom 5 offensive line in the league. Let alone the worst line in the league, which many come in here and say they certainly are. Last year Arizona averaged 4.2 yards a carry for 17th in the league.

It's the worst OL according to

- Pro Football Focus

- Football Outsiders

But I'm sure www.foulline.com is more reliable

I don't need a website to understand football.

Do you even know how they figure those stats? I'm gunna guess that you don't.

Last week before Thursday those sites had Arizona's OLine ranked last in terms of rushing, even though it at that time they weren't ranked last in rush yards per game or rush yards per carry and they had gone up against the hardest schedule to rush against.

So don't get snotty with me because I have enough brains and balls to formulate my own opinions rather than blindly follow along some site I don't understand like a lemming. You can disagree all you want but that doesnt make my points any less valid.

Again if Arizona puts up big rush numbers against Buffalo their stats will look so much better.6 If they rush for 150 yards as a team against Buffalo and every other team rushed for their average yards a game that would put them at 26th overall in teems of rush yards per game.

I'm noticing a particular trend with your responses: you're picking and choosing what arguments to respond to. It doesn't lend credence to your argument that their Oline is a "below average" run blocking unit. You're responding to a lot of the "personal" shots but ignoring the arguments that have facts in them.

I'll agree with you: Cards have played tough opponents, their play calling may be suspect at time and I'll even give you they didn't have the right running back in.

Despite these three things, are you not willing to acknowledge the deluge of facts that have been presented to you that the Cards Oline is not "below average" but are in fact, one of the worst ones in the league? Define "below average" as well: are you saying they're the 28th worst run D vs the 32nd? If so, then this whole conversation is moot.

They don't actually look closely or look at deeper stats than just rush yards per game.

What "deeper stats" are you looking at that the rest of us aren't?

Regarding the grading of PFF:

https://www.profootb.../about/grading/

Our player participation data has been confirmed as being 99 percent accurate, and we firmly believe that we are more than 90 percent accurate in our grading of individual plays. We’ve been commended by NFL players for the accuracy of our grading and told we are “light years” ahead of anything available elsewhere in media circles.

Respond to this please:

They had Levi Brown last year, who in the 2nd half graded out as one of the better left tackles in the league, that is when Arizona's run game really starting coming together (and why he got a big contract extension in the offseason), hence why they went on a little late season run last year, he is lost for the season. They also started a different right tackle. Since then they are starting some free agent off the streets loser who ranks as one of the worst lineman in the league, and a rookie in Massie who was a late round pick and was considered a complete project but has been thrust into action must earlier than expected and is taking his lumps.

I get that it can be tough having an opposing opinion; from what I've seen of many of the members of this forum are more than willing to flip their mindset about players but you need to have a coherent argument to sway them. Offer up more than "you're not looking at the games the right way" and "you guys don't see it, they're not the worst in the league," you'll see we'll be on board.

EDIT: Check out robrain's post. His post on how he idenfiies sleepers follows a legit logical path. Whether we agree or not is another question but you kind of screwed the pooch many pages ago when you used this as why Powell was your sleeper candidate (it turned off quite a few folks here):

1. They both went undrafted.

2. Neither was the starting RB1.

3. They both lead the preseason in rushing.

4. They both had extremely high yards per rush in preseason.

Edited by ColtsBaby!!
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I was suspended this past week for violating the Rotoworld Forums Code of Conduct.

Otherwise this thread would be at least 50 pages long by now.

William Powell had the best opportunity to carve out a starting role out of all of the flier RB's.

Now, he's clearly at the top of the totem pole in AZ. It's extremely doubtful that Hypen (LaRod Stephens-Howling) will handle more than 5 carries a game, as long as Powell is healthy and performing.

It should also be noted that Powell may be used more in protection than Hyphen simply because he weighs more and is almost certainly the better pass-blocker (not to mention he was previously handling 3rd down work while Hyphen was out).

The concussion doesn't worry me as long as he plays this week or next. Lots of NFL players have had concussions, Powell's doesn't appear to be anything significant. One concussion doesn't instantly turn you into Jahvid Best.

William Powell's upside is tremendous. The Cardinals O-line looks dismal, yes. But if Powell's ability is able to trump a poor O-line, or the O-line is able to find some sort of solidity, Powell should easily be an RB2 with upside.

POW POW POWELL WHEELS!

Actually, another way to put it. Do you consider Powell an "RB2 with upside" who is startable now, or only if he proves himself by trumping a poor O-line? If he has to prove himself first, then isn't that a little like saying he is easily an RB2 with upside if he proves himself to be an RB2 with upside?

Are you starting him in any of the leagues you have him in?

I'm really pulling for the guy. If you're assertion is that he CAN be a stud if he can prove himself a stud, then I suppose I'd go along with that since it's a pretty low-risk assertion. I haven't been able to bring myself to start him in any leagues yet, because until he proves himself to be an RB2 with upside, I think he's nothing but a flier like any other flier, no better, no worse.

My process when picking up prospective players is pretty simple:

If you theoretically pick up a player, they're either going to pan out, or they aren't.

If they pan out, you'll be keeping that player.

If they don't pan out, you'll be dropping that player.

It's really that simple.

So neither of those arguments are good enough to decide whether or not to actually roster a particular player in the first place.

That decision should be based on what you think their upside is.

I don't bother rostering a player who I think only has the potential to be a flex/RB2 caliber producer in my starting lineup. I feel that's setting your aim far too low.

I only roster players that I think have WR2 with upside potential, RB2 with upside potential, etc.

Whether or not they achieve that is never a guarantee. But if I don't feel they have that potential upside, I typically don't roster that player at all unless it's as a single-use bye week fill-in.

A lot of my players on my bench are speculative pickups, and that group of players is constantly cycled as I get a chance to evaluate each of them.

Against BUF, I consider Powell an RB2 with upside, assuming he gets 12-15 carries. For PPR formats, it would be nice if he also got a few receptions. I can't guarantee any of those workloads, obviously no one can with any certainty at this point.

That's why I stated, you pick up a player:

If he pans out, you keep that player.

If he doesn't pan out, you drop that player.

We won't know for certain if Powell will / won't pan out until at least after this game (but I wouldn't immediately drop him after this game even if he doesn't perform up to expectations). This game is for all analytical purposes the first time we'll likely have a real chance to evaluate a full regular season performance from him.

That of course, also depends on how the workload split goes between Powell, Hyphen, and Smith. If Hyphen gets the majority of the work, and Powell is still the change of pace guy this game, I think that dropping Powell based solely on that would be a mistake. Because we again wouldn't have yet had the opportunity to see what Powell could do given a full workload of carries/snaps.

Ultimately, the question you should be asking is, do I feel that Powell's potential upside remains that of an RB2 with upside? The answer to that is a resounding YES.

As far as if I'm feeling comfortable enough to actually start Powell this week, I wouldn't say "comfortable" is the word I'd use. I'll admit, the risk of the gamble could fall either way. However, I definitely feel that the factors involved here (Beanie Wells + Ryan Williams out of the way now, Hyphen not the kind of RB that is meant for a lead back role, Powell being used previously on 3rd downs / no huddle) suggest that Powell has a very good chance of having a nice game here.

As far as thought process goes, in the one league that I'm forced to set my roster by the first game of the week (I hate that format), which means I have to have it set by the start of the Thursday game tonight, I am starting William Powell in my FLEX spot. Previously I had Donald Brown penciled in there, but that obviously went out the window with his knee surgery. Because it's FLEX, I could have started a TE like Rudolph, a WR like Avery, or some of the other RB's on my roster (Vick Ballard, Alex Green).

But ultimately out of those guys, if I have to gamble on which of them has the best chance to put up 100 yards + a TD, I feel the most comfortable with William Powell this week.

Beyond this week, I can't say with any certainty. You don't have to set your lineup two or three weeks in advance, so I find that mostly irrelevant. We'll get a chance to see if William Powell performs or not this weekend, and what the workload given to him by the coaches ends up being.

If you have him on your roster, you'll get the chance to decide whether or not to keep him after this week's game. If you don't have him on your roster, you don't even get the chance to make that decision.

That's why we hype him in the first place, so you can get him on your roster and at least have that opportunity.

I think I would have to agree that "Powell's potential upside remains that of an RB2 with upside."

I would actually go so far to say that, for most backup RBs in the NFL, their potential upside is an RB2 with upside. (Except maybe for Shonn Greene, even though he's a starter.)

That's a lot of analysis to back up this statement. I think a simpler version of what you're saying is, to quote a former president, just go with your gut.

Edited by bsong71
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You are saying they struggled run blocking because they had a tough schedule, well they still face the gauntlet coming up so what should our expectations be with the Cardinals run game now?

Also a big part of it is the play calling. It's hard to be a lineman when all you do is pass block. Especially for an average QB. Like I said before Arizona has no business throwing the ball as much as New England, Green Bay, Philly, etc. 0 business. Just think about it from a fantasy perspective, where did you draft Kevin Kolb? You didn't. I see 2 first round QBs and a 3rd - 4th round QB on the other teams. Also multiple receivers.

I think if Arizona runs the ball 25+ times they will rush for 125+ yards easily. The run is something you have to "establish". It takes "pacience". I'm sure you guys have all heard this, but never truly understood it. You aren't getting a running game going when you rush the ball under 25% of the time.

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What points have you made about their offensive line? All you have said is "they aren't close to the worst in the league or a bottom 5 line." Then someone brought up multiple credible sites that I know I have used in the past and they are pretty well known. And those stats aren't some confusing formula, they are stated right on the graph as to how they get each number.

Again, you might be wise to refrain from accusing everyone else of not bringing facts to the table when they give you multiple football research websites citing their argument. At this point its pretty irritating reading the defiant attitude.

Then explain how last week Arizona before they played Thursday was ranked last in terms of rushing yet they weren't last in rushing yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and had the toughest schedule to run against up to that point?

They don't consider opposition in those. They don't consider a lot of things. It says right on the website,

"The following stats are not adjusted for opponent".

Which is one of my main arguments. Yeah every undefeated team in college football should be tied at the #1 ranking, right?

Ya, you can argue schedule all you want but how does Arizona's schedule get any easier this season? They get the Bills, Jets, Falcons that rank lower half of the league, but the rest they get Seattle, San Fran twice, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Rams again. You are saying they struggled run blocking because they had a tough schedule, well they still face the gauntlet coming up so what should our expectations be with the Cardinals run game now?

I'm expecting the Cardinals offense to devolve into this spiky mixture of runs/dump-offs to the RB, and desperation hail mary passes to the WR's (especially Fitzgerald). I don't think that Kolb will be able to keep it together going forward, especially when they hit "the gauntlet".

Think of what Roy Helu did last year during Week 9 vs. SF:

10 carries, 41 rushing yards

12 catches, 105 receiving yards

That was with Captain Checkdown John Beck at the helm. I expect Kevin Kolb to trend more towards that type of QB'ing as the season goes on.

Imagine that but in the 5-7 reception range typically.

In PPR formats, that would make William Powell an interesting RB2 with upside.

The clearest example I can provide is the Cardinal's final drive just before half time:

Arizona Cardinals at 01:38

1-10-ARI 6 (1:38) 33-W.Powell left tackle to ARI 13 for 7 yards (43-C.Dahl).

2-3-ARI 13 (:59) 4-K.Kolb sacked at ARI 8 for -5 yards (58-J.Dunbar).

Timeout #1 by SL at 00:55.

3-8-ARI 8 (:55) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass short middle to 33-W.Powell to ARI 10 for 2 yards (31-C.Finnegan; 58-J.Dunbar).

PENALTY on SL-98-K.Langford, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 10.

1-10-ARI 25 (:47) 4-K.Kolb pass short right to 33-W.Powell to ARI 35 for 10 yards (32-B.Fletcher).

1-10-ARI 35 (:41) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass incomplete short left to 15-M.Floyd.

2-10-ARI 35 (:38) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass short right to 33-W.Powell to ARI 43 for 8 yards (58-J.Dunbar).

Timeout #1 by ARI at 00:29.

3-2-ARI 43 (:29) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass incomplete short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald (21-J.Jenkins).

4-2-ARI 43 (:25) 9-D.Zastudil punts 49 yards to SL 8, Center-82-M.Leach. 21-J.Jenkins to SL 21 for 13 yards (94-S.Acho).

William Powell was targeted 3 times on that drive and they didn't even get to the other side of the 50-yard line. His gains on those plays (3 receptions, 1 carry) were 2, 7, 8, and 10.

He was also targeted on a previous drive (incomplete pass, not sure whether it was a bad pass / throwaway by Kolb or a drop by Powell). That's 4 targets in the first half of the game alone. That was while Ryan Williams was still healthy and in the game and ahead of Powell on the depth chart (Ryan Williams didn't injure his shoulder until the 4th quarter, which I believe was actually after Powell got his concussion).

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I'm noticing a particular trend with your responses: you're picking and choosing what arguments to respond to. It doesn't lend credence to your argument that their Oline is a "below average" run blocking unit. You're responding to a lot of the "personal" shots but ignoring the arguments that have facts in them.

I'll agree with you: Cards have played tough opponents, their play calling may be suspect at time and I'll even give you they didn't have the right running back in.

Despite these three things, are you not willing to acknowledge the deluge of facts that have been presented to you that the Cards Oline is not "below average" but are in fact, one of the worst ones in the league? Define "below average" as well: are you saying they're the 28th worst run D vs the 32nd? If so, then this whole conversation is moot.

I'm not sure what facts I'm ignoring?

I said their O line isn't good, but it isn't the worst in the league. There's a difference between being good enough to get it done and the worst in the league.

Last year Seattle was ranked 25th in yards per rush attempt at 4.0, that's a huge difference from the Giants at 3.5 last year. Marshawn Lynch ended up having a great season and being a very high quality back. Does that make sense to you?

The worst line is something you probably can't work with.

The 27th worst offensive line is something you can work with. So no it's not a grasp at a straw. It's just what I think. Watch me be wrong watch me be right, we will see. I received similar static in the Alshon Jeffery thread earlier this year on The Bears O-Line and the fact that I said Jeffery would out produce Blackmon.

Public point of view is for suckers. I make my own opinions by analyzing the stats and footage myself.

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yah if you run enough you'll make the dl tired eventually and you can break through with some massive gains. once the dl starts getting gassed you can also start open up the passing game as you'll have more time to throw the ball. powell is the next foster.

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Tell us again, about how bad the Cards offensive line sucks?

Could the factor of the Defenses AZ played against be used too, if it wasn't?

Also factor in that other RBs were not healthy or 100% and/or just not good (nothing to say Powell will be any better or not).

Perhaps this could draw some great needed perspective on the apparent horrible o-line of AZ Cards.

Maybe the oline is just average but played tough D's.

Perhaps Beanie and Williams were hurt and tentative.

Maybe it's a combo of all the good and bad. There are facts supporting both sides of these arguments.

There are facts that indicate Powell could be a gem and other facts that show he's a dog.

In the end we could all agree with the state of RBs and history of RBs arising out of seemingly nowhere that Powell is worthy of flyer consideration until its proven otherwise.

Most RBs fail in the NFL. To go out and make a claim that one will fail isn't really going out on tree. As well, to make a claim that a RB is going to be a huge contributor and be the next big thing isn't really going out on a tree either. Look at all the experts and columnists. If you read them all eventually you find that everybody loves and hates the same people. If you through enough mud on the wall some of it has to stick. And in fantasy in this day and age you can spend all day figuring out what a your league mates just got on email in 2 minutes.

So I suppose here the debate is the fun part, especially here in the case of the curious Mr. Powell. I suppose I just don't get the guys saying he's a waste of time for whatever reason. In baseball, the analysis is a lot more rooted on statistical probability and measurables. In football, you just never know so why not go for the flyer each and everytime?

Powell is likely to do well this week given opprotunity. If he gets lucky and puts up some good stats then sell him if you can cause the schedule gets grim. And if you can't or he looks really good then hold and ride him.

I wouldnt worry about Beanie. It's doubtful Beanie will be a factor if Powell does well. If Powell sucks then u'll cut him anyways.

To finish, it's Powells chance to shine. He's worked his whole life for this moment. He will either pass or fail. I'd rather be on the side of him passing because I like rooting someone with his history of resilience to succeed.

But hey, you could always just take the position he fails (which is statistically likely) and claim I told you so.

Edited by tucker26
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I'm noticing a particular trend with your responses: you're picking and choosing what arguments to respond to. It doesn't lend credence to your argument that their Oline is a "below average" run blocking unit. You're responding to a lot of the "personal" shots but ignoring the arguments that have facts in them.

I'll agree with you: Cards have played tough opponents, their play calling may be suspect at time and I'll even give you they didn't have the right running back in.

Despite these three things, are you not willing to acknowledge the deluge of facts that have been presented to you that the Cards Oline is not "below average" but are in fact, one of the worst ones in the league? Define "below average" as well: are you saying they're the 28th worst run D vs the 32nd? If so, then this whole conversation is moot.

I'm not sure what facts I'm ignoring?

I said their O line isn't good, but it isn't the worst in the league. There's a difference between being good enough to get it done and the worst in the league.

Last year Seattle was ranked 25th in yards per rush attempt at 4.0, that's a huge difference from the Giants at 3.5 last year. Marshawn Lynch ended up having a great season and being a very high quality back. Does that make sense to you?

The worst line is something you probably can't work with.

The 27th worst offensive line is something you can work with. So no it's not a grasp at a straw. It's just what I think. Watch me be wrong watch me be right, we will see. I received similar static in the Alshon Jeffery thread earlier this year on The Bears O-Line and the fact that I said Jeffery would out produce Blackmon.

Public point of view is for suckers. I make my own opinions by analyzing the stats and footage myself.

did you see Kolb after last week's game? it is questionable if that oline is even "good enough" at this point. guys looked lost out there

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I'm noticing a particular trend with your responses: you're picking and choosing what arguments to respond to. It doesn't lend credence to your argument that their Oline is a "below average" run blocking unit. You're responding to a lot of the "personal" shots but ignoring the arguments that have facts in them.

I'll agree with you: Cards have played tough opponents, their play calling may be suspect at time and I'll even give you they didn't have the right running back in.

Despite these three things, are you not willing to acknowledge the deluge of facts that have been presented to you that the Cards Oline is not "below average" but are in fact, one of the worst ones in the league? Define "below average" as well: are you saying they're the 28th worst run D vs the 32nd? If so, then this whole conversation is moot.

I'm not sure what facts I'm ignoring?

I said their O line isn't good, but it isn't the worst in the league. There's a difference between being good enough to get it done and the worst in the league.

Last year Seattle was ranked 25th in yards per rush attempt at 4.0, that's a huge difference from the Giants at 3.5 last year. Marshawn Lynch ended up having a great season and being a very high quality back. Does that make sense to you?

The worst line is something you probably can't work with.

The 27th worst offensive line is something you can work with. So no it's not a grasp at a straw. It's just what I think. Watch me be wrong watch me be right, we will see. I received similar static in the Alshon Jeffery thread earlier this year on The Bears O-Line and the fact that I said Jeffery would out produce Blackmon.

Public point of view is for suckers. I make my own opinions by analyzing the stats and footage myself.

I appreciate the response but you didn't answer any of my questions:

1) What do you define as below average? You gave me a response that said the 25th worst rushing average per carry of Seattle was different from the Giants 3.5. 27th is something you can work with??

2) You ignored my other questions! Next one was: What "deeper stats" are you looking at that the rest of us aren't?

3) Respond to your dismissal of calculation from sites like PFF because you didn't know their calculation methodology:

https://www.profootb.../about/grading/

Our player participation data has been confirmed as being 99 percent accurate, and we firmly believe that we are more than 90 percent accurate in our grading of individual plays. We’ve been commended by NFL players for the accuracy of our grading and told we are “light years” ahead of anything available elsewhere in media circles.

4) Respond to this please:

They had Levi Brown last year, who in the 2nd half graded out as one of the better left tackles in the league, that is when Arizona's run game really starting coming together (and why he got a big contract extension in the offseason), hence why they went on a little late season run last year, he is lost for the season. They also started a different right tackle. Since then they are starting some free agent off the streets loser who ranks as one of the worst lineman in the league, and a rookie in Massie who was a late round pick and was considered a complete project but has been thrust into action must earlier than expected and is taking his lumps.

5) Care to respond to your earlier (incorrect) comments about your method of finding a sleeper:

1. They both went undrafted.

2. Neither was the starting RB1.

3. They both lead the preseason in rushing.

4. They both had extremely high yards per rush in preseason.

Thanks

EDIT: Here's why I'm prodding you so much: I want you to be right and I'm just trying to understand your reasoning. There's no desire to throw it in your face if he fails as tucker mentioned above (from me at least). I'm all for hearing new/different ways people analyze prospects, that's it. As soon as I hear a great gem of info/stats/analysis, I'll thank you kindly and move on.

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I appreciate the response but you didn't answer any of my questions:

1) What do you define as below average? You gave me a response that said the 25th worst rushing average per carry of Seattle was different from the Giants 3.5. 27th is something you can work with??

2) You ignored my other questions! Next one was: What "deeper stats" are you looking at that the rest of us aren't?

3) Respond to your dismissal of calculation from sites like PFF because you didn't know their calculation methodology:

https://www.profootb.../about/grading/

Our player participation data has been confirmed as being 99 percent accurate, and we firmly believe that we are more than 90 percent accurate in our grading of individual plays. We’ve been commended by NFL players for the accuracy of our grading and told we are “light years” ahead of anything available elsewhere in media circles.

4) Respond to this please:

They had Levi Brown last year, who in the 2nd half graded out as one of the better left tackles in the league, that is when Arizona's run game really starting coming together (and why he got a big contract extension in the offseason), hence why they went on a little late season run last year, he is lost for the season. They also started a different right tackle. Since then they are starting some free agent off the streets loser who ranks as one of the worst lineman in the league, and a rookie in Massie who was a late round pick and was considered a complete project but has been thrust into action must earlier than expected and is taking his lumps.

5) Care to respond to your earlier (incorrect) comments about your method of finding a sleeper:

1. They both went undrafted.

2. Neither was the starting RB1.

3. They both lead the preseason in rushing.

4. They both had extremely high yards per rush in preseason.

Thanks

EDIT: Here's why I'm prodding you so much: I want you to be right and I'm just trying to understand your reasoning. There's no desire to throw it in your face if he fails as tucker mentioned above (from me at least). I'm all for hearing new/different ways people analyze prospects, that's it. As soon as I hear a great gem of info/stats/analysis, I'll thank you kindly and move on.

I honestly thought that was part of your signature so I naturally went on and read other things.

So you call me out for ignoring facts, which ones seriously? Not the ones in your post after you call me out on ignoring facts.

1. Below average, below league average. Could be better but certainly could be worse, but clearly not the worst.

2/3. Deeper stats are opponents. Again you do not consider opposition either. I admit I like your style a bit better, than the other site. But again I am not the one doing the grading so I have no idea how you guys have done it. But opposition is always important, not only individual matchup but the team as a whole matchup. Remember football is the ultimate team sport.

4. I acknowledged that the line isn't as good as last year. You are actling like they lost a pro bowler and literally threw in a guy off the streets. Plenty of quality linemen are drafted in the 4th round, yes Massie is a project type guy. But he has good upside and is the kind of guy who it could click for t any time. Sure he isn't as good as Levi Brown but he isn't so bad that they are now the worst line in the league.

5. You clearly misunderstood that part. Those were just similarities between Foster and Powell. The reasons I defined Powell are clearly laid out multiple times throughout the thread. To sum it up, has big play making ability.

I know I have crazy predictions, but I am by no means ignorant. I played football for 4 years in highschool and 2 in college at Harper. I coach and do training for football, baseball, and basketball for a living. I know how to analyze film and have extensive training in that area. I have a $30 ap on my phone which allows me to watch all condensed games. No I don't watch it on my phone I obviously plug into my HDMI on my TV. I try to watch as many plays as I can a week from every game. No I don't see them all.

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it's not possible to reason with foulline, as he's convinced that powell is in the same class as arian foster, priest holmes, terrell davis, and so on. moreover, he strongly believes that beanie and rywill both suck. therefore, he attributes the lack of production in arizona to poor rb play, poor matchups, and poor coaching decisions. we will soon find out if he's better at assessing talent than ken whisenhunt and the rest of the cardinals' coaching staff... foulline's cred is indeed on the line

It isn't that it's impossible to reason with me. It's just that you have weak a** counter points to anything I say.

Take this post for example. Your whole argument is that it is impossible to reason with me and that I'm crazy. No facts on William Powell or the Arizona line. Please keep this weak stuff to yourself.

there's two general arguments that are being made on this thread: (1) that the cardinals' offensive line (or offense in general) is unlikely to support a productive fantasy running back and (2) that it will support a productive fantasy running back if that running back is william powell. you are the pusher of argument (2). i contend that your argument is quite weak. indeed, your entire argument rests on the notion that william powell is a top talent. you "substantiate" this claim through (highly suspect) statistics such as ypc in college and the nfl preseason. moreover, you made a qualitative argument (of his physical talent) by analyzing one or two highlight clips. these two points are based off of small sample sizes and, hence, your argument (on the whole) is quite weak.

you do realize that you're pimping a player who walked-on in college and played on the practice squad till his senior season? moreover, he was a backup in the one year that he saw real action. you do realize that a number of people that get paid to analyze nfl football have concluded that the cardinals' offensive line sucks? you do realize that ryan williams and beanie wells are two well thought of talents? the most reasonable argument is clearly (1). you have picked an event (ie william powell as a stud fantasy rb) that has a very low likelihood of occuring and are arguing for it as if it's a certainty. it makes you seem quite unreasonable

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I appreciate the response but you didn't answer any of my questions:

1) What do you define as below average? You gave me a response that said the 25th worst rushing average per carry of Seattle was different from the Giants 3.5. 27th is something you can work with??

2) You ignored my other questions! Next one was: What "deeper stats" are you looking at that the rest of us aren't?

3) Respond to your dismissal of calculation from sites like PFF because you didn't know their calculation methodology:

https://www.profootb.../about/grading/

Our player participation data has been confirmed as being 99 percent accurate, and we firmly believe that we are more than 90 percent accurate in our grading of individual plays. We’ve been commended by NFL players for the accuracy of our grading and told we are “light years” ahead of anything available elsewhere in media circles.

4) Respond to this please:

They had Levi Brown last year, who in the 2nd half graded out as one of the better left tackles in the league, that is when Arizona's run game really starting coming together (and why he got a big contract extension in the offseason), hence why they went on a little late season run last year, he is lost for the season. They also started a different right tackle. Since then they are starting some free agent off the streets loser who ranks as one of the worst lineman in the league, and a rookie in Massie who was a late round pick and was considered a complete project but has been thrust into action must earlier than expected and is taking his lumps.

5) Care to respond to your earlier (incorrect) comments about your method of finding a sleeper:

1. They both went undrafted.

2. Neither was the starting RB1.

3. They both lead the preseason in rushing.

4. They both had extremely high yards per rush in preseason.

Thanks

EDIT: Here's why I'm prodding you so much: I want you to be right and I'm just trying to understand your reasoning. There's no desire to throw it in your face if he fails as tucker mentioned above (from me at least). I'm all for hearing new/different ways people analyze prospects, that's it. As soon as I hear a great gem of info/stats/analysis, I'll thank you kindly and move on.

I played football for 4 years in highschool and 2 in college at Harper. I coach and do training for football, baseball, and basketball for a living. I know how to analyze film and have extensive training in that area. I have a $30 ap on my phone which allows me to watch all condensed games. No I don't watch it on my phone I obviously plug into my HDMI on my TV. I try to watch as many plays as I can a week from every game. No I don't see them all.

Powell was an RB at Kansas State who also excelled as a kick returner making multiple highlight reels. I will give all of you gentlemen (and ladies if any) a real perspective into statistical analysis for William Powell and why he may or may not succeed this week against the Buffalo Bills.

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In week 1, Seattle stuffed the Cardinals in the running game, while Skelton had completed 14 of 28 passes for 149 and a pick. Kolb in limited action had a nice 6/8 66 yards and a score. Wells rushed 7 times for 14 yards. Ry Williams rushed 8 times for 9 yards. If we can agree week 1 was not an aberration for the Seahawks defense, they are currently ranked first overall in total defense, and 3rd against the run. Regardless of bad offensive line play, the Seahawks defense gets the credit here for stuffing the Cardinals. Also let it be known that the rushing yards in this game were so abysmal that it may skew the averages and other rushing numbers used in further total yardage statistics in the next 4 weeks data.

In week 2, New England also fared well against the Cardinals offense, though Kolb was somewhat productive in a short passing game going 15/27 for 140 and a TD, Wells rushed 14 times for 44 yards. Ryan Williams 10 for 13 yards. New England currently ranks 20th in total defense but 8th against the run. Debatable, but I will say that New England's rushing defense against the Cardinals assumably below average offensive line did what it was supposed to do. Again a tough match up for the Cards. And thus through 2 weeks of data, we have yet to see the Cards against a good match up defensively vs. the run and so far our data is based solely on Beanie and Ryan Williams.

In week 3, against the Eagles, Kolb was efficient going 17/24 for 222 and 2 scores. Ryan Williams rushed 13 times for 83 yards, while Wells rushed 8 times for 18 yards. Wells started the game but both backs were alternated every series until they rode the hot hand with Williams throughout the 2nd half. The Eagles rank 8th in total defense, and 12th against the run (97 yards per game and have only allowed 1 rushing TD). It's possible that the Cardinals offensive line isn't all that bad as shown against one of the better defenses in the league in this match up. Just based off of the 3 weeks of data here, it might also be assumed that the offense flowed better with Ryan Williams in the backfield rather than Beanie.

In week 4, Kolb threw 48 passes completing 29 for 324 and 3 TDs. Ryan Williams rushed 13 times for 26 yards and Powell rushed 2 times for 2 yards. Clearly a day in which the rushing game was unnecessary because of the success Kolb had in the air and/or the gameplan heading in. Besides the Cardinals abysmal performance in this game, Miami also leads the league in rushing defense, and ranks 15th in overall defense. Assuming it was part of the game plan, and Kolb had a good performance, it can be assumed it was a combination of the stingy rushing defense of Miami that was a reason for the bad game by Ryan Williams and not necessarily the bad offensive line. Through 4 weeks, we have seen a successful fantasy produced game by Ryan Williams vs. a decent Eagles rushing defense. The other 3 weeks can be summed up bad rushing defensive match ups.

In week 5, Kolb threw 50 passes completing 28 for 289 yards. Ryan Williams rushed 14 times for 33 yards. Powell 1 for 7 yards. The St. Louis Rams rank 14th in overall defense and 18th against the run. This is a game in which you wonder why they didn't have as much success on the ground as the overall numbers would suggest a good match up for Ryan Williams. Out of the 14 rushes that Ryan Williams had, on the opening drive for the Cardinals which featured 18 total plays, 6 of them were Ryan Williams rushes (one called back for a penalty). On the opening drive, Ryan rushed 5 times for 17 yards. Next drive was 4 plays, Ryan rushed once for 4 yards. Next drive after that, 3 plays, one rush by Williams for 4 yards. Next drive, 6 plays, 1 rush by Williams for 5 yards. Next drive 7 plays, 1 rush by Williams for no gain. Next drive on the first play, Powell rushes for 7 yards followed by 6 more passing plays by Kolb. Ryan Williams back in the next drive on the first play hit in the backfield for -4 yards followed by two incompletions by Kolb. Basically from here on out, every drive featured one rush by Williams. Even in a drive which featured 14 straight plays, Williams rushed once for 12 yards and was injured after the play. I could keep diving into the stats here, but clearly the game plan was to pass all over the Rams and it didn't work. The Cardinals did have success running the ball, but in my opinion couldn't establish a rhythm and were not given an opportunity to succeed. I still believe even in this game with skewed numbers on paper, the offensive line was successful here. The game was on Kolb's arm, and he didn't succeed.

NOW WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID.

In week 6 the Buffalo Bills rank 31st in total defense. The Bills rank 30th against the run. The Bills have given up 9 rushing TD's the MOST in the league. After analyzing 5 weeks of data, 3 of which can be attributed to bad rushing defensive match ups, the Cardinals offensive line is probably about league average (not terrible as everyone has been saying), and in my opinion, Powell should have a monster day. BUT - even when the match ups on paper suggested that the teams they were playing had a bad rushing defense, Whisenhunt still chose to let Kolb air it out. Over the last two weeks, he let Kolb throw 48 attempts, and 50 against the Rams. I hope this is not part of the gameplan and not a trust issue of his running backs and/or offensive line. Powell will succeed if Whisenhunt lets him. Otherwise I think we could be looking at a similar line to what Williams did against the Eagles. 13 rushes for 80 yards, with a very very good chance at a rushing TD. However, if the staff lets Powell rush 20 times and get into a rhythm, I'd be willing to bet closer to 120 yards and a couple scores.

Bottom line, the Arizona Cardinals offensive line is not as bad as everyone thinks. This is based on tough rushing defenses and/or the gameplan by Whisenhunt. Please read the entire post before responding with criticism.

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there's two general arguments that are being made on this thread: (1) that the cardinals' offensive line (or offense in general) is unlikely to support a productive fantasy running back and (2) that it will support a productive fantasy running back if that running back is william powell. you are the pusher of argument (2). i contend that your argument is quite weak. indeed, your entire argument rests on the notion that william powell is a top talent. you "substantiate" this claim through (highly suspect) statistics such as ypc in college and the nfl preseason. moreover, you made a qualitative argument (of his physical talent) by analyzing one or two highlight clips. these two points are based off of small sample sizes and, hence, your argument (on the whole) is quite weak.

I am saying that Arizona's O-Line is more than good enough for Powell to be a big time success in fantasy. It wasn't based off of two highlights, don't be so thick.

you do realize that you're pimping a player who walked-on in college and played on the practice squad till his senior season? moreover, he was a backup in the one year that he saw real action.

You do realize you are trying to hate on a guy who is getting picked up in week 6. I have said it many times before it's all about upside. If he doesn't pan out you can drop him, when he does become a fantasy staple you can thank me.

you do realize that a number of people that get paid to analyze nfl football have concluded that the cardinals' offensive line sucks?

So let these "pros" make all your fantasy decisions for you. I've seen and read what the experts say, my preseason rankings are always better come season's end. I trust no one's analysis more than mine. That should be the attitude of anyone who is serious about fantasy sports.

you do realize that ryan williams and beanie wells are two well thought of talents?

Highly untrue. Beanie Wells was never more than an average fantasy back. Ryan Williams has never proved anything in the NFL, he finally got his shot and he blew it.

the most reasonable argument is clearly (1). you have picked an event (ie william powell as a stud fantasy rb) that has a very low likelihood of occuring and are arguing for it as if it's a certainty. it makes you seem quite unreasonable

Reread the first page on the thread. I say long shot. I also said, "he can be had at the expense of your first drop". People are just sore because I continue to find some sort of bright side to the sludge they keep throwing onto this thread. Just because I counter point some weak argument of how Arizona has the "worst" line in the league "by far" doesn't mean I'm arguing it as if it was a certainty. I haven't traded any RBs in honor of picking up William Powell, I didn't drop any high profile player to pick him up either. I never said he is a must draft. All you haters just want to talk down to someone and pick a fight. All I do is defend myself and my stance. So act as if you know so much more than me because chances are I'm wrong about an extremely bold prediction. Get real.

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Reread the first page on the thread. I say long shot. I also said, "he can be had at the expense of your first drop". People are just sore because I continue to find some sort of bright side to the sludge they keep throwing onto this thread. Just because I counter point some weak argument of how Arizona has the "worst" line in the league "by far" doesn't mean I'm arguing it as if it was a certainty. I haven't traded any RBs in honor of picking up William Powell, I didn't drop any high profile player to pick him up either. I never said he is a must draft. All you haters just want to talk down to someone and pick a fight. All I do is defend myself and my stance. So act as if you know so much more than me because chances are I'm wrong about an extremely bold prediction. Get real.

I agree with the assessment you have made on other pages. The offensive line is not bad, Ryan Williams rushed well against the Eagles on limited carries, and against the Rams (their only other decent rushing defensive match up) they chose to air out 50 times and never established a rhythm in the rushing game. Assuming the game plan with Buffalo is not to throw 40+ times, and they realize how soft of a rushing defense Buffalo really is, Powell is a great play especially with people who need an RB for a bye week. Even if the game plan is to air it out I still think he can be a dependable fantasy play. His upside though could be 20+ carries for 100+ yards and multiple scores. This is even with the below average (or IMO average) Cardinals offensive line.

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I for one, appreciate Foulline and Robrain bringing this guy to the attention of everyone on the board. Even if we do not agree, without this board many would not of gotten the chance to take a flier on this guy originally. That is what this place is all about to talk sports and help eachother win and succeed in our leagues. I am going to give Powell a go in one league in terms of a pick up, and go against every grain in my body to see where it takes me. Does not hurt to take a shot.

With that said, I still do not conclude how you come this conclusion Foulline, I would really like to hear your analysis to this:

I am saying that Arizona's O-Line is more than good enough for Powell to be a big time success in fantasy. It wasn't based off of two highlights, don't be so thick.

Bolded is the part I am having trouble with. How do you figure Batiste - Colledge - Sendlein - Snyder - Massie are "good enough" to make Powell a big time fantasy success? I guess I just have a different outlook than you, I have watched all there games this year. Including against the Rams last week, a unit that entered 26th in the NFL vs. the run. They jumped up to 18th because they dominated this piss poor line. I am a big believer, and a big analzyer in offensive line. Being a Seahawks fan I have seen some really bad line play ever since Walter Jones retired from the Seahawks and it has made me analyze the position from a completely different perspective. My research and conclusion usually leads me to never rely on a back from a bottom 5 unit because there consistency and outputs are never usually good enough to rely on to be a starter for your fantasy team. That is why Chris Johnson is so bad now, that line is just terrible. Is Chris Johnson a bad player? No, he is a very good player, he just has no holes to run through.

So with that said, I challenge you to tell me, and others how this collection of misfits is good enough to be adequate, when everything tells me they can't, eye test, backgrounds, experience, statistics etc. I don't really know what you are hanging your hat on here with there line, and I wish you could explain it to me so I could comprehend how you conclude this line is not as bad as we all think? The argument of they have faced really good competition doesn't sit with me either because the Rams were not good when they faced, they were terrible, and they still are not a great defensive line so lets be real here.

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