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William Powell 2012 Season Outlook


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Despite the fact that Powell clearly outperformed LSH, LSH was still heavily involved. Even when Powell would gain chunk after chunk of yards leading the Cardinals to a scoring drive, LSH would still replace him on the following drive (and perform poorly for the most part). As the second half went on they somewhat abandoned the run which meant LSH was on the field more (passing situations).

Powell has definitely earned a larger share of the carries but the Cardinals seem intent on not overworking either of these rather diminutive RBs. Powell is the guy to own and It's reasonable to expect goal line carries and 16 or so carries a game (provided the Cardinals manage to stay in the games) but LSH will probably be plenty involved still in passing situations and the occasional drive.

Powell's role should increase, but how much is uncertain. This was a cushy match-up and unfortunately his schedule now becomes brutal during these bye weeks when we might actually need to put him in the lineup.

Edited by earthtobrint
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My favorite thing about this thread is that it's the worst in the forum, it's so bad I actually like it, and even respect it in a sick way. It's a hideously diseased monstrosity out of the late night

Just read that Powell only has one testicle, but it's huge. Starting him with confidence.

The level of delusion in this thread is astonishing

I don't see any reason why Powell won't be run into the ground if not because its just smart football then just so to see what he is.

Coaches are gonna look at the game film an start featuring this dude. Or they are idiots.

Powell didn't touch the ball until 2nd quarter. And not much in the 4th or overtime.

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Let's just say this: FoulLine and Robrain can feel vindicated. Wi-Po performed admirably given a decent number of touches. The 20+ hours they spent ignoring their day job and touting Wi-Po was well worth the time spent in front of the screen rather than playing baseball outside! ;) Three cheers for Wi-Po, FoulLine, and Robrain. Or should I say, Wi-Line and Wi-Brain!

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I don't see any reason why Powell won't be run into the ground if not because its just smart football then just so to see what he is.

Coaches are gonna look at the game film an start featuring this dude. Or they are idiots.

Powell didn't touch the ball until 2nd quarter. And not much in the 4th or overtime.

I agree, I don't understand how they limited his touches. Maybe they value him in the return game and don't want expose him or LSH to too many hits to perserve them both. Powell has zero track record, and in his small sample size of playing football he has a pulled leg muscle and a concussion. So the coaching may feel like he cannot hold up to a larger work load. Would be nice if they gave him that shot, I saw some good talent out there today running the ball. But until I see his role grow to a 80-20 share with LSH then I just don't think he can produce enough with the limited touches against some of these tough matchups coming up.

Edited by Cmilne23
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I don't see any reason why Powell won't be run into the ground if not because its just smart football then just so to see what he is.

Coaches are gonna look at the game film an start featuring this dude. Or they are idiots.

Powell didn't touch the ball until 2nd quarter. And not much in the 4th or overtime.

I agree, I don't understand how they limited his touches. Maybe they value him in the return game and don't want expose him or LSH to too many hits to perserve them both. Powell has zero track record, and in his small sample size of playing football he has a pulled leg muscle and a concussion. So the coaching may feel like he cannot hold up to a larger work load. Would be nice if they gave him that shot, I saw some good talent out there today running the ball. But until I see his role grow to a 80-20 share with LSH then I just don't think he can produce enough with the limited touches against some of these tough matchups coming up.

Coaches will drop the line this week indicating more touches.

Doubt he returns kicks anymore.

Next week:

80 total yards and 1 TD. So like:

15-18 for 65 and 2 rec 15

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Hmmm, CMilne brings up an interesting point - because of the concussion, they might have simply been limiting his first game workload coming off of that.

We've seen players come back from a concussion without missing a game, but still have a "down" week, that could have possibly been their reasoning for limiting his snaps this game. As long as he came out of this game healthy, if that was their reasoning, then we should see an increase in his workload going forward.

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Hmmm, CMilne brings up an interesting point - because of the concussion, they might have simply been limiting his first game workload coming off of that.

We've seen players come back from a concussion without missing a game, but still have a "down" week, that could have possibly been their reasoning for limiting his snaps this game. As long as he came out of this game healthy, if that was their reasoning, then we should see an increase in his workload going forward.

sorry but using the concussion seems like grasping. especially when you consider another guy who suffered a concussion last week, RGIII pretty much ran all over MIN, which is a defense full of heavy hitters. if protecting a player who didn't miss a week because of concern were that big a concern i'm sure WSH would have had a much more vested interest in protecting the future of their franchise, than ARI would have with a walk on RB.

do we really need to make excuses still? why does there need to be a conspiracy theory about why Powell didn't get more carries? it seems pretty obvious that ARI preferred LSH and wanted him to be the RB. they gave him early touches, and enough time to get in a rhythm and it just didn't happen for him and then they went to Powell. just enjoy the performance against a bad defense.

as far as workload i don't see it being anymore than what Beanie had. maybe he will get more but with the info at hand i don't see how you can say with any confidence that he could exceed Beanie's workload

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Even though the Cards lost the game, having a semblance of a running game will do wonders for their o-line and passing game. Even if ineffective, running the ball makes a defense committ, keeps them on the field, and wears them down just a tad bit mores- which can make the difference.

All I've learned this year is not to count anybody out. How many thought AP would run like he has (TD drought, sure - dude is a real life beast) after hurting his knee. Or Charles for that matter. Or Alfred Morris being just "another Shanny back.". The fact is, Powell DID something with his carries. Had he scored one TD....everybody would be freaking out.

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Even though the Cards lost the game, having a semblance of a running game will do wonders for their o-line and passing game. Even if ineffective, running the ball makes a defense committ, keeps them on the field, and wears them down just a tad bit mores- which can make the difference.

All I've learned this year is not to count anybody out. How many thought AP would run like he has (TD drought, sure - dude is a real life beast) after hurting his knee. Or Charles for that matter. Or Alfred Morris being just "another Shanny back.". The fact is, Powell DID something with his carries. Had he scored one TD....everybody would be freaking out.

AP and Charles have a long history and both are top 5 RBs when they were healthy. so i'm sure plenty of people believed they were capable of their current performance, and that is backed up by their ADP. Morris was a surprise, but that had more to do with it being Shanny than WSH's offense.

Powell pretty much couldn't win this week because he faced a bad defense. if he has a bad game then he is done. if he has an average or above average game it really proves nothing because of the competition he is going up against.

you are right, a running game can wear down a defense. but with the state of the ARI offense, it is very likely that they won't put up enough points to keep a running game going for more than a first half. you can be the greatest rb in the history of the nfl but if your team is down by multiple TDs, a running game becomes an afterthought

and as always, pass protection is king. is LSH a better pass protector than Powell?

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Did he get all his touches in the 1st half or did I imagine that?

I was all over the place on Red Zone(the fantasy football equivalent of porn btw) and he seemed so quiet in the 2nd half I was sure he was hurt.

He was on the field in the 2nd half and in overtime, as soon as they got down they put hyphen in for pass protection I guess.

Powell looked great running the ball, he would have gone over 100 yards with ease if whisenhunt would've fed him the ball.

We'll see what happens, I'm sure they'll see the burst and wiggle in Powell, he almost broke a couple for long runs.

I was happy with what I saw out of him, and hope he gets more touches next time out.

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Hmmm, CMilne brings up an interesting point - because of the concussion, they might have simply been limiting his first game workload coming off of that.

We've seen players come back from a concussion without missing a game, but still have a "down" week, that could have possibly been their reasoning for limiting his snaps this game. As long as he came out of this game healthy, if that was their reasoning, then we should see an increase in his workload going forward.

I think it was more about getting his stamina up, he looked a little winded after a couple of his runs. Also, he's just getting his feet under him, you could see him looking to the sidelines after some of the runs to see if the staff would keep him in, or take him out. So that tells us that they are still figuring out how much of the carries to give him.

I think he's going to carve out a larger role in the coming weeks, it's the first semblance of a run game that this team has had all year.

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Pretty simple situation in my opinion.

William Powell 13 rushes for 70 yards

LSH 11 rushes for 22 yards

LSH is going to play on passing downs, and Powell will play on running downs. Value goes to Powell. LSH also had a long run of 11 yards last night, which means that he combined 11 yards on the other 10 runs. Powell was consistently gaining positive yardage and made the tough yards when he was called upon to do so.

LSH might be the nominal 'starter' but I doubt we see him get double digit carries again if Powell continues to be effective. If Powell can get 15-20 carries a game, which is not unreasonable we could be looking at a decent value.

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  • Root Admin

A few thoughts. I think it was obvious to everyone that watched the game that Powell was the superior runner. It was also obvious that LSH, because of his skillset and experience is the preferred choice by the Whiz and staff as the third down/passing back. I think Powell played well enough to carve out more of a role for himself. But most folks don't have any understanding of what that means in the context of the Zona offense. So let's look at the numbers to try and figure it out. Note, this is going to be with tiny SS, but that is football. Because of the abbreviated season, nothing will be "scientifically valid", so let's roll with it and give variance.

Powell rushed for 70 yards on 13 carries or 5.38 YPC. Pretty good by any measure. Of course, Buffalo came into the game actually giving up 5.8 YPC, so Powell technically "underperformed" Buffalo's average, but I don't think anyone reasonably thinks Buffalo will give up 300 yards rushing every game (the average of the last two before Zona). Still a fine performance. Powell received 54% of the carries for Zona and 56% of the total RB touches. If you believe (as I do) that he will get more touches, most likely carries, then where does that leave us?

Arizona averaged 21.5 carries by RBs last year. This year, it's 21.8. Because of the limitations of their OL, they don't run the ball that often and the frankly, don't run many plays because of this limitation. So we do have a baseline for how much Arizona uses their RBs to run the ball, 21-22 times a game. So if Powell carved out 75% of those carries, it would equal about 16 carries a game.

So what does that mean for Powell vs his next 3 opponents using their YPC coming into this week?

MIN: 17 * 3.7 = 63 yards

SF : 17 * 3.6 = 61 yards

GB: 17 * 4.1 = 70 yards

Also note, that these YPC will change. GB dominated the vaunted Houston running game but gave up yards in garbage time. Minny gave up a boat load of rushing yards this week, but it was fluky b/c they were almost all to the QB (RGIII). Morris was 16 for 47. SF was also dominated. They got behind and gave up a lot of yards in garbage time. SF is a very strong rush defense but not as good as last year. Still, looking at expectations, we're talking about 60-70 yards if Zona plays to adjusted averages (something they haven't done all season until yesterday when Kolb had 66 yards) rushing the ball.

Even if we give variances of .9 or 1.1, it only moves the variance to 55-75 yards for Powell. So 5-7 points plus receiving plus TDs. Arizona has 2 rushing TDs all season, 1 by Kolb and 1 by LSH. Wells had 10 last year so again, the SS probably makes that fluky but Powell nor LSH are near the physical runner as Wells (he outweighs Powell by 30 lbs).

Again, this is giving the Zona OL the benefit of the doubt and assuming they can run block to opponent averages. Remember, they are ranked last (32nd) in Adjusted line yards and RB yards by FO. So, we would be assuming that they have gotten their act together. If you don't think they can do this, then you would adjust down to the variance and assume about a 55 yard rushing day w/ receiving and TDs. Maybe a .33 average with TDs for the Cards??? Sounds about right. So, do what you want with that quick analysis.

Disclosure: I own Powell in two leagues.

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I think the move to make is package Powell in with another player for an upgrade. Not to mention the fact that Beanie might come back as well. This guy is the man to have in ARI, but can he really succeed (on a fantasy level) in the current situation, under the current circumstances? Kolb possibly be out long. No real OL. Opposing D's. Sharing carries.

ARI schedule: @MIN, SF, @GNB, bye, @ATL, STL, @NYJ, @SEA, DET, CHI, @SFO

Who wants anything to do with that?

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do we really need to make excuses still? why does there need to be a conspiracy theory about why Powell didn't get more carries? it seems pretty obvious that ARI preferred LSH and wanted him to be the RB. they gave him early touches, and enough time to get in a rhythm and it just didn't happen for him and then they went to Powell. just enjoy the performance against a bad defense.

as far as workload i don't see it being anymore than what Beanie had. maybe he will get more but with the info at hand i don't see how you can say with any confidence that he could exceed Beanie's workload

There is no conspiracy. Powell is better than LSH, Ryan Williams, and Beanie Wells as well for that matter.

He proved it yesterday. Yes it was against a suspect defense. LSH literary did nothing whereas Powell actually had a good deal of success. You take away LSH's 11 yard run and his average is just over 1 yard a carry. So it wasn't that Arizona obviously preferred LSH over Powell, they just weren't exactly sure. Now they know.

Powell still didn't get enough touches to really make something happen. I honestly think if Powell touches the ball 20 times, he's a shoe in to break a 40+ run. He was close to being off to the races a few times.

Arizona still has their game plan backwards. Their run blocking is okay, it's their pass blocking that is the worst in the league. They need to stop attempting so many passes. Kolb was doing so much extra to avoid the pressure, and I thought he did a great job for how bad the line was he easily could have been sacked 10 times yesterday.

Again Kolb attempted 26 passes before he got injured (5 rushes, which were initially passing plays that Kolb ended up running on). Then Skelton comes in and throws 10 passes.

Arizona had 25 designed rushes and 41 designed passing plays. They are only rushing the ball 37.88% of the time. They should be closer to 50% especially in a 1 possession game. They completely abandoned the run at the end of the 4th and in OT.

Does Wisenhunt call the plays? Because I would think a guy coming out of Pittsburgh would have more of a run first type philosophy.

Bottom line is Powell averaged more yards a rush than Kolb did a passing attempt.

Arizona now loses to an average team at home after beating 3 elite teams to open the season, yes I'm calling Seattle elite. Is Miami elite? I'm not so sure, but they are in first place right now. So they squeeked by 4 very good teams to start the season, then drop 2 games in which they were favored to win both of them.

The main reason they lost is simply because they abandoned the run. Sure Feely missed a 38 yarder after nailing a 61 yarder. But let's be real. Arizona brings in the back up QB, after sitting on the sidelines the entire game and you're going to continue passing the ball after Kolb was under duress the entire game?

Skelton was in for 11 plays 10 were passing. The game was a 1 possession game the entire time. That is just ignorant play calling.

Powell only got 1 touch in the 4th and OT. It doesn't make sense other than if Powell is in fact out of shape and couldn't handle more carries. Either way The Cardinals will continue to lose when they are passing over 62% of the time. The 9ers who destroyed The Bills ran the ball right around 50% of the time.

Even though Powell will be facing tougher defenses I see him getting a great deal more carries. Arizona is going to eventually realize they cannot win games when they pass at the rate that they do. They do not have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers as their QB and their line cannot pass block at all. So they just exposes their biggest weakness as a team exponentially by passing as much as they do.

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do we really need to make excuses still? why does there need to be a conspiracy theory about why Powell didn't get more carries? it seems pretty obvious that ARI preferred LSH and wanted him to be the RB. they gave him early touches, and enough time to get in a rhythm and it just didn't happen for him and then they went to Powell. just enjoy the performance against a bad defense.

as far as workload i don't see it being anymore than what Beanie had. maybe he will get more but with the info at hand i don't see how you can say with any confidence that he could exceed Beanie's workload

There is no conspiracy. Powell is better than LSH, Ryan Williams, and Beanie Wells as well for that matter.

the conspiracy i refer to is the stories and excuses people in this thread are coming up with for why Powell didn't get more work. read in context next time. as far as being better, that is all opinion, i know this is a what have you done for me lately society, and Wells hasn't done much, but Wells is an accomplished running back with history of success at both the college and nfl levels.

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do we really need to make excuses still? why does there need to be a conspiracy theory about why Powell didn't get more carries? it seems pretty obvious that ARI preferred LSH and wanted him to be the RB. they gave him early touches, and enough time to get in a rhythm and it just didn't happen for him and then they went to Powell. just enjoy the performance against a bad defense.

as far as workload i don't see it being anymore than what Beanie had. maybe he will get more but with the info at hand i don't see how you can say with any confidence that he could exceed Beanie's workload

There is no conspiracy. Powell is better than LSH, Ryan Williams, and Beanie Wells as well for that matter.

the conspiracy i refer to is the stories and excuses people in this thread are coming up with for why Powell didn't get more work. read in context next time. as far as being better, that is all opinion, i know this is a what have you done for me lately society, and Wells hasn't done much, but Wells is an accomplished running back with history of success at both the college and nfl levels.

Beanie sucks IMO

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do we really need to make excuses still?

Excuses? Coming into this game we knew that it was going to be a timeshare with Hyphen, we just didn't know how much of the split each back would get, or the reasons for a timeshare existing to begin with.

The potential reasons for a timeshare existing were:

1) They don't want to overwork one back.

2) Coming into the game, the coaching staff thought that Hyphen was a better back than Powell.

3) The coaching staff trusts Hyphen more in either pass-block/blitz-pickup or receiving out of the backfield than Powell (3rd down-type work).

4) Out of respect to the previously laid out depth chart, they gave Hyphen the vet-nod.

5)

Adding the concussion theory to that list was just further expanding the possible reasons for the timeshare. The situation with RGIII is not the same, because different coaching staffs/teams make different decisions. The Redskins were 2-3, they needed to start getting some wins if they were going to try to make the playoffs. They need RGIII to get those wins.

The Cardinals were 4-1, so they were in a much better position to limit the touches of one of their important players coming off a concussion the previous game. If they thought they could simply hold him out and make do with Hyphen so as not to overwork him his first game back from the concussion, and still pull out the close win, it does make some sense to do so (mainly because they have no other RB behind Powell with Wells and Williams on I.R. - losing Powell to recklessly giving him a huge workload, when Powell has shown to be their most effective RB, would be a bad move).

It's not 100% concrete (no theories ever are), but it's a valid theory, as valid as any other since we don't know for sure what Whiz and Co are thinking when they make their decisions. If that was indeed a partial reason for limiting his touches this game, Powell coming through the game healthy (and performing well) should mean he'll see a bump in touches in this upcoming week's game.

You seem to be confusing "reasons" with "excuses".

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  • Root Admin

Those of you that are speculating that they limited Powell's workload b/c of his concussion (which was 10 days before) are misguided IMO. He was the kickoff returner. Do you know what play statistically most concussions happen (% wise)? Yup.....You don't put a guy that you're worried about back on kickoffs, you'd save him for offensive snaps, not ST ones.

The far more realistic and logical assumption is that despite having a nice pre-season, Powell has very little experience and LSH does. Powell also has no history of being able to hold up under a 20-25 touch load, in the pros or college. He's not the stoutest of guys either. Makes sense to start out with a committee and it looks like it will continue to be one although I think Powell may have made his case to be on the better side of that committee. Still, who plays more snaps will likely be dictated by the flow of the game and circumstance......

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For those who don't know why he wasn't around in OT....

On the play Kolb got hurt, it was a designed draw, Powell (UDFA) made a mistake and went to a pass blocking look, wasn't there to take Kolb's handoff, Kevin tried to do something, and got hit causing his rib injury. He was benched for the remainder of the game.

He has a lot of potential but is young and still makes mistakes. I like the kid both on my FF team and as a Cards fan, but he's still young, and Whiz hates playing rookies. That's just how he is.

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