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Serge Ibaka 2012-2013 Season Outlook


the1gq2nvy

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Serge Ibaka had 1st round value last year @ 27 mpg (according to BBM), but I'd imagine that it might be a little bit tough to build around him because most of his value comes from just blocks.

Although he is one of the most one-dimensional players in terms of fantasy value, I think 2nd round is completely justified, although you must be able to draft intelligently enough to build a successful team around him. He has some upside (uptick in minutes), and he has been pretty durable in his career so far.

If I don't see any other players that I like better, I'd definitely draft Ibaka with confidence in the 2nd round.

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Unless he becomes a double digit rebounder, I can't touch him in the 2nd. I'd rather draft so many other bigs over him since he's so one dimensional. Give me a Gasol over him any day. I got him in the 4th round (10 tm) last yr and I thought it was a reach especially since he didn't warm up and start having block parties until later on in the season. Brooks screwing with his mins. last yr was a pain :angry: . 3rd round, if he there's, I might just take a second glance.

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to be fair, tough for anyone to average 10 rebs per game playing 26 min per game

Unless he becomes a double digit rebounder, I can't touch him in the 2nd. I'd rather draft so many other bigs over him since he's so one dimensional. Give me a Gasol over him any day. I got him in the 4th round (10 tm) last yr and I thought it was a reach especially since he didn't warm up and start having block parties until later on in the season. Brooks screwing with his mins. last yr was a pain :angry: . 3rd round, if he there's, I might just take a second glance.

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to be fair, tough for anyone to average 10 rebs per game playing 26 min per game

Unless he becomes a double digit rebounder, I can't touch him in the 2nd. I'd rather draft so many other bigs over him since he's so one dimensional. Give me a Gasol over him any day. I got him in the 4th round (10 tm) last yr and I thought it was a reach especially since he didn't warm up and start having block parties until later on in the season. Brooks screwing with his mins. last yr was a pain :angry: . 3rd round, if he there's, I might just take a second glance.

That's why it was a headache to own him. You'd see something crazy like 3 blocks in the 1st half and then he'd be benched most of the 2nd half. Brooks didn't give him consistent opportunities/playing time to max out his stats lines .

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He is a blocks specialist that doesn't really hurt you in any category other than 3's and assists. He is great for both H2H and roto because in H2H he can obviously win you a category each week. In roto, his ability to generate so many blocks allows you to stockpile a lead, and trade him away during the season. Anyone with a low point total in blocks would bite on a chance to jump in the standings and offer good value for him especially since blocks are so scarce.

He also has major upside if Brooks ever unleashes him instead of keeping him on the bench. With that said, he is definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

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He is a blocks specialist that doesn't really hurt you in any category other than 3's and assists. He is great for both H2H and roto because in H2H he can obviously win you a category each week. In roto, his ability to generate so many blocks allows you to stockpile a lead, and trade him away during the season. Anyone with a low point total in blocks would bite on a chance to jump in the standings and offer good value for him especially since blocks are so scarce.

He also has major upside if Brooks ever unleashes him instead of keeping him on the bench. With that said, he is definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

When you factor in the fact that owners traditionally shouldn't even be expecting assists from their big men, I wouldn't even say assists is one of his weaknesses.

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He is a blocks specialist that doesn't really hurt you in any category other than 3's and assists. He is great for both H2H and roto because in H2H he can obviously win you a category each week. In roto, his ability to generate so many blocks allows you to stockpile a lead, and trade him away during the season. Anyone with a low point total in blocks would bite on a chance to jump in the standings and offer good value for him especially since blocks are so scarce.

He also has major upside if Brooks ever unleashes him instead of keeping him on the bench. With that said, he is definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

I agree with everything you said except the last sentence.

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He is a blocks specialist that doesn't really hurt you in any category other than 3's and assists. He is great for both H2H and roto because in H2H he can obviously win you a category each week. In roto, his ability to generate so many blocks allows you to stockpile a lead, and trade him away during the season. Anyone with a low point total in blocks would bite on a chance to jump in the standings and offer good value for him especially since blocks are so scarce.

He also has major upside if Brooks ever unleashes him instead of keeping him on the bench. With that said, he is definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

When you factor in the fact that owners traditionally shouldn't even be expecting assists from their big men, I wouldn't even say assists is one of his weaknesses.

He offers 0.4 assists, which is a couple assists short of what almost every other big man drafted that early will give you. His 0.5 steals are also more of a weakness that people think.

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Brooks isn't entirely to blame for Ibaka's minutes, foul trouble does play a role. What is a nice trend, though, is how his fouls/36 minutes have gone down every season so far for his young career.

09-10: 5.3

10-11: 4.3

11-12: 3.6

I definitely had a lot of bias in thinking of Ibaka as a foul-prone player, but I found 6 guys who foul at a similar rate who play more minutes, and some of them are surprising:

P.Millsap

L.Scola

P.George

D.Cousins

R.Hibbert

D.Jordan

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Brooks isn't entirely to blame for Ibaka's minutes, foul trouble does play a role. What is a nice trend, though, is how his fouls/36 minutes have gone down every season so far for his young career.

09-10: 5.3

10-11: 4.3

11-12: 3.6

I definitely had a lot of bias in thinking of Ibaka as a foul-prone player, but I found 6 guys who foul at a similar rate who play more minutes, and some of them are surprising:

P.Millsap

L.Scola

P.George

D.Cousins

R.Hibbert

D.Jordan

Here's the list. What's amazing is how much DeMarcus Cousins fouls. 4.7 per 36 and the next highest is 3.8. And Paul Millsap gets 33.2 minutes per game despite fouling more often than Serge Ibaka.

Really, a bigger factor keeping Ibaka's minutes down is just that he isn't as good a real-life player as he is in fantasy. He's not bad in real life by any means, but Nick Collison is much better, and if Ibaka playing more minutes means Collison is playing less, the Thunder are worse off after that exchange. Of course, they could just give them minutes at C and stop playing Perkins so much, but that would be far too reasonable.

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In terms of minutes per game, keep in mind Perkins is physically breaking down, {source http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/953/kendrick-perkins } and lost a lot of trust from OKC organization with his poor play in the Finals (believe me, Scotty Brooks heard about how he played Perk too much). So Ibaka should be in line for more minutes this year unless OKC goes small all the time.

Who else is going to take his minutes besides Collison? I will be thoroughly upset if any of you mention Cole Aldrich or Hasheem Thabeet...and I will throw a tantrum if anyone mentions Daniel Orton.

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I thought he look GOOD for stretches in the Olympics. Was draining some mid range shots like crazy!

More minutes and hopefully more involved in the offense...could be a big year

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I like Ibaka (liked him a lot more when I drafted him for $1 at auction two seasons ago) but if he is worth a 2nd round pick, why do so many people hate Rondo. I realize Rondo's ft% is terrible, he doesn't score a lot and he doesn't make many 3s and BBM ranks him low. However, Ibaka while sick for blocks is average at best for a power forward in rebounds, doesn't score much, gets very few steals and virtually no assists. Are his blocks worth that much more than Rondo possibly getting 100 more assists than any other player if he stays healthy plus being a top 5 steals guy?

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I like Ibaka (liked him a lot more when I drafted him for $1 at auction two seasons ago) but if he is worth a 2nd round pick, why do so many people hate Rondo. I realize Rondo's ft% is terrible, he doesn't score a lot and he doesn't make many 3s and BBM ranks him low. However, Ibaka while sick for blocks is average at best for a power forward in rebounds, doesn't score much, gets very few steals and virtually no assists. Are his blocks worth that much more than Rondo possibly getting 100 more assists than any other player if he stays healthy plus being a top 5 steals guy?

i think the difference is that Rondo HURTS you in a few categories while Ibaka doesnt really hurt you in anything.

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I like Ibaka (liked him a lot more when I drafted him for $1 at auction two seasons ago) but if he is worth a 2nd round pick, why do so many people hate Rondo. I realize Rondo's ft% is terrible, he doesn't score a lot and he doesn't make many 3s and BBM ranks him low. However, Ibaka while sick for blocks is average at best for a power forward in rebounds, doesn't score much, gets very few steals and virtually no assists. Are his blocks worth that much more than Rondo possibly getting 100 more assists than any other player if he stays healthy plus being a top 5 steals guy?

To see how these rankings are derived, just look at the BBM values for each category. These are equal to the player's z-score in each category, and averaging them gives the player's overall value in BBM:

Cats are pts, 3pm, rebs, assists, steals, blk, fg%, Ft%, tov: average

Ibaka: -1.01 -1.17, 0.82, -1.24, -1.25, 5.19, 1.04, -0.55, 0.89: average 0.30

Rondo: -0.41, -0.94, -0.18, 4.03, 1.88, -1.04, -0.32, -1.61, -2.40: average =-0.11

Ibaka's relative value in blocks beating Rondo's value in assists shouldn't be surprising. He averaged 3.7 blocks per game last year, and the rest of the league had a down year in the category, with the second-highest player being Javale McGee at 2.2 per game. Beyond that, Ibaka has 5 bad categories in the -1 range, but he has three other good ones in the +1 range, so the other 8 categories have a net impact of only around -2. Rondo has 7 bad categories, and his worst two are worse than any of Ibaka's: his negative categories add up to about -7, with only his steals to cancel them out, leaving his non-assist categories with a net impact around -5. Combine the fact that Ibaka is better in his specialty with the fact that Rondo is significantly worse in non-specialty areas, and Ibaka is far more valuable.

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Yup, people on here lol refer to Ibaka as only a block specialist when hes far more than that.

His low turnover rate is incredibly valueable and far more valueable than people on here think. His fg% is also super valueable, another cat that is way too often ignored or devalued on here. His rebounds are a positive even if he doesn't average 10 of them. And for a bigman his ft% is a plus as well. The only cats he hurts you in are 3s and assists which almost all bigmen hurt you in.

Rondo literally only helps you in steals and assists. He legit hurts you in ft%, fg%, turnovers (this one is huge), and 3s (again huge for a perimiter player), blocks (expect no blocks from a pg tho).

They both hurt you in ppg (Ibaka hurts you slightly more there)

In short Rondo legit hurts you in 6 out of 9 cats!!!

Rondo is like a 4th round player who is constantly super overdrafted due to people being blinded by his assists/steals and ignoring his SIX weakness's. Ibaka is a mid/late 2nd round player who is super underdrafted because people ONLY look at his blocks and ignore his great turnover rate, great fg%, good ft% for a big, decent boards, respectable steals for a bigman etc

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Yup, people on here lol refer to Ibaka as only a block specialist when hes far more than that.

His low turnover rate is incredibly valueable and far more valueable than people on here think. His fg% is also super valueable, another cat that is way too often ignored or devalued on here. His rebounds are a positive even if he doesn't average 10 of them. And for a bigman his ft% is a plus as well. The only cats he hurts you in are 3s and assists which almost all bigmen hurt you in.

Rondo literally only helps you in steals and assists. He legit hurts you in ft%, fg%, turnovers (this one is huge), and 3s (again huge for a perimiter player), blocks (expect no blocks from a pg tho).

They both hurt you in ppg (Ibaka hurts you slightly more there)

In short Rondo legit hurts you in 6 out of 9 cats!!!

Rondo is like a 4th round player who is constantly super overdrafted due to people being blinded by his assists/steals and ignoring his SIX weakness's. Ibaka is a mid/late 2nd round player who is super underdrafted because people ONLY look at his blocks and ignore his great turnover rate, great fg%, good ft% for a big, decent boards, respectable steals for a bigman etc

I like Ibaka. The only thing is, while his FG% and FT% may be good, he doesn't score at a high enough volume for it to really help you in the category. It's one of the things people overlook for some reason. Someone could have a 60% field goal number and 77% free throws but if they only score 3 times a game and only get a couple of free throws a game then it's not going to matter if you don't have other players on your team with good percentages.

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