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Brett Anderson 2013 Outlook


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Anybody have a feeling on Anderson in the 2nd half? Can he provide some late help in Aug/Sep?

Are you asking if he can stay healthy for 6-8 weeks? I'm gonna go out on the limb and say No.

I have a hunch Anderson if he does come back healthy to the bigs this year will be in the pen. It just might better suit him, with his track record of injuries. Plus he's a lefty. As well as Straily has pitched well and Sonny Gray is looking MLB ready... With the depth in The A's rotation it's time to start looking forward....

I hope you're wrong. Talent-wise, Anderson is the best starter we have and it would be a shame for him to waste away in the bullpen. I don't have all the details on his most recent injuries, but if my memory serves me correct they were kind of fluky. I think he just needs to take his time to fully heal up (as we has been this go-round) and come back strong when he is ready. The A's have played so well without him that it'll be icing on the cake if he makes it back.

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Honestly, if you don't jump right in with those 2 matchups, you shouldn't have drafted him. Couldn't ask for a better matchup than that.

Fluky or not these are his innings in the Majors 175.1 112.1 83.1 35 29

but if my memory serves me correct they were kind of fluky.

Fluky or not these are his innings in the Majors

175.1

112.1

83.1

35

29

Inning totals are getting less and less... Well he still has a good chance to eclipse 35 innings this year. But that is not a good trend.

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Anybody have a feeling on Anderson in the 2nd half? Can he provide some late help in Aug/Sep?

Are you asking if he can stay healthy for 6-8 weeks? I'm gonna go out on the limb and say No.

I have a hunch Anderson if he does come back healthy to the bigs this year will be in the pen. It just might better suit him, with his track record of injuries. Plus he's a lefty. As well as Straily has pitched well and Sonny Gray is looking MLB ready... With the depth in The A's rotation it's time to start looking forward....

There's been no talk of that. The only way I could see it was if they believed the foot wouldn't hold up this season. The trend of injuries looks real enough, but taken individually the TJ accounts for a vast majority of that time, is essentially thrown out as so many pithers have it and then are fine later (like with Parker), and the oblique wasn't serious. Beane loves Anderson and would never move him to the pen, regardless of who else is pitching in the rotation, unless there was a a prevailing medical opinion this foot injury would not allow him a full workload. The A's consider Anderson their ace.

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Anybody have a feeling on Anderson in the 2nd half? Can he provide some late help in Aug/Sep?

Are you asking if he can stay healthy for 6-8 weeks? I'm gonna go out on the limb and say No.

I have a hunch Anderson if he does come back healthy to the bigs this year will be in the pen. It just might better suit him, with his track record of injuries. Plus he's a lefty. As well as Straily has pitched well and Sonny Gray is looking MLB ready... With the depth in The A's rotation it's time to start looking forward....

There's been no talk of that. The only way I could see it was if they believed the foot wouldn't hold up this season. The trend of injuries looks real enough, but taken individually the TJ accounts for a vast majority of that time, is essentially thrown out as so many pithers have it and then are fine later (like with Parker), and the oblique wasn't serious. Beane loves Anderson and would never move him to the pen, regardless of who else is pitching in the rotation, unless there was a a prevailing medical opinion this foot injury would not allow him a full workload. The A's consider Anderson their ace.

Do they really think he's their ace? I think they are looking at Parker be that guy. A healthy Anderson might put up Jordan Zimmermann type numbers. But an ace is someone who can rely on, both results-wise, and health-wise. Anderson has really struggled with the latter.

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There's been no talk of that. The only way I could see it was if they believed the foot wouldn't hold up this season. The trend of injuries looks real enough, but taken individually the TJ accounts for a vast majority of that time, is essentially thrown out as so many pithers have it and then are fine later (like with Parker), and the oblique wasn't serious. Beane loves Anderson and would never move him to the pen, regardless of who else is pitching in the rotation, unless there was a a prevailing medical opinion this foot injury would not allow him a full workload. The A's consider Anderson their ace.

Well don't be surprised if it happens. There is a saying that 75% of all injuries happen to the same 25% of the players. Sure hammer me because that's impossible to prove. But before you start arguing semantics just think about it. Why are some players healthy year in and year out where as others are injured every year? Some guys just:

1. Aren't built as well as others.

2. Don't know how to take care of themselves as well as others.

3. Don't care to take care of themselves as well as others.

4. Play the type of game that leads to injuries (all out in the OF etc).

5. Rush back from injury and take seasons to really get back to 100% without any nagging effects.

If anyone consider's Anderson The A's ace they haven't been watching baseball in a few years. There is 0 reasoning to draw this conclusion at this point. Anderson has sucked this year and hasn't shown enough in the past 3 years to say he is automatically in the rotation let alone the ace.

You don't let Straily waste away in the minors because some guy who can't stay healthy is all of a sudden back healthy to start the last 3 - 4 weeks of the season. If Straily is pitching well it's his spot. Or Sonny Gray for that matter. But let's be honest, Gray isn't going to start on the the team and will be used in relief until they need Straily. This is an obvious attempt to prolong Gray's arbitration (classic move) so long as there aren't any more injuries.

Edited by FouLLine
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Anderson is in much better shape than he used to be, but he still falls off the mound after he throws, which puts pressure on that foot (and also increases the risk of him getting drilled).

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I hear you, but there is something to be said for basic talent and being unlucky. Take a look at Liriano, who is fundamentally a good pitcher but who has been through many injuries,

In my heavily move-restricted league, I have no choice but to activate Anderson when he returns because I drafted him as a starter (my alternative would be to use one of only two second half roster moves to release or demote him). So it would be a disaster if he ends up the bullpen because when he gets activated I have to send down a sub like Archer or Mujica. But I don't think that will happen and I have to trust the A's coaches that they will only put him out there if he has a chance to do well.

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Anybody have a feeling on Anderson in the 2nd half? Can he provide some late help in Aug/Sep?

Are you asking if he can stay healthy for 6-8 weeks? I'm gonna go out on the limb and say No.

I have a hunch Anderson if he does come back healthy to the bigs this year will be in the pen. It just might better suit him, with his track record of injuries. Plus he's a lefty. As well as Straily has pitched well and Sonny Gray is looking MLB ready... With the depth in The A's rotation it's time to start looking forward....

There's been no talk of that. The only way I could see it was if they believed the foot wouldn't hold up this season. The trend of injuries looks real enough, but taken individually the TJ accounts for a vast majority of that time, is essentially thrown out as so many pithers have it and then are fine later (like with Parker), and the oblique wasn't serious. Beane loves Anderson and would never move him to the pen, regardless of who else is pitching in the rotation, unless there was a a prevailing medical opinion this foot injury would not allow him a full workload. The A's consider Anderson their ace.

Do they really think he's their ace? I think they are looking at Parker be that guy. A healthy Anderson might put up Jordan Zimmermann type numbers. But an ace is someone who can rely on, both results-wise, and health-wise. Anderson has really struggled with the latter.

Not necessarily. My personal opinion is the foot thing is troublesome. I didn't really care about TJ, that's practically an occupational annoyance now, but a stress issue in a foot for a pitcher is worrying. If he didn't have that I would say yes, with Parker and Gray (eventually) running second. The A's opinion has always seemed to be that Anderson is the ace/most talented pitcher, and that's more of what I'm basing the idea that he won't be moved to the pen. Beane has always been in love with Anderson, and I haven't seen anything that would suggest that being changed. Especially when he came back last season and was excellent the last quarter of the season and helped push the A's into the postseason and then dominated the Tigers. Unless that foot is a REAL problem I can't see Beane suddenly reversing course on his belief in Anderson and putting him in the pen.

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If anyone consider's Anderson The A's ace they haven't been watching baseball in a few years. There is 0 reasoning to draw this conclusion at this point. Anderson has sucked this year and hasn't shown enough in the past 3 years to say he is automatically in the rotation let alone the ace.

Please elaborate. Anderson has been very, very good when healthy. And this isn't a question about the "when healthy" part. It's about "he hasn't shown enough in the last 3 years to say he is automatically in rotation".

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Anderson is in much better shape than he used to be, but he still falls off the mound after he throws, which puts pressure on that foot (and also increases the risk of him getting drilled).

Good points. Yes he is in better shape than he used to be. Probably down 15 pounds, but he is still over weight and shown to be injury prone. So while the weight loss I'm sure can't hurt I think he has a lot more problems than that.

Yes falling off the mound is a big part. He has always needed a cleaner route to home plate, but has never made the adjustment.

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If anyone consider's Anderson The A's ace they haven't been watching baseball in a few years. There is 0 reasoning to draw this conclusion at this point. Anderson has sucked this year and hasn't shown enough in the past 3 years to say he is automatically in the rotation let alone the ace.

Please elaborate. Anderson has been very, very good when healthy. And this isn't a question about the "when healthy" part. It's about "he hasn't shown enough in the last 3 years to say he is automatically in rotation".

He has 73 starts over the last 5 seasons. That is a clear sign of can't stay healthy.

Sure he pitched well last year at the tail end of the season. But he had such an easy pitching schedule. @SEA, @BOS, CLE, MIN none of those teams had good lineups all year, let alone the fact that they weren't in any type of a race. Seattle was starting a AAA lineup.

When Anderson saw DET and LAA, he got shelled. I will give you the fact that he pitched well against Detriot in the post season for his one start. But again, that is only 1 start. So while he did have a strong showing in 2012 it was a small sample that was more of a success due to the weakness in schedule than Anderson's actual talent.

Last time Anderson was somewhat healthy in 2011 over 13 starts he had a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 6.59 K/9. Not dominating by any means.

I can't think of a legit ace who has a K/9 under 7 let alone a WHIP above 1.25.

I'm not saying that Anderson won't start or won't be any good. But it's clear that he is not the ace everyone hoped he would be when he ran through the minors the way he did years ago.

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If anyone consider's Anderson The A's ace they haven't been watching baseball in a few years. There is 0 reasoning to draw this conclusion at this point. Anderson has sucked this year and hasn't shown enough in the past 3 years to say he is automatically in the rotation let alone the ace.

Please elaborate. Anderson has been very, very good when healthy. And this isn't a question about the "when healthy" part. It's about "he hasn't shown enough in the last 3 years to say he is automatically in rotation".

He has 73 starts over the last 5 seasons. That is a clear sign of can't stay healthy.

Sure he pitched well last year at the tail end of the season. But he had such an easy pitching schedule. @SEA, @BOS, CLE, MIN none of those teams had good lineups all year, let alone the fact that they weren't in any type of a race. Seattle was starting a AAA lineup.

When Anderson saw DET and LAA, he got shelled. I will give you the fact that he pitched well against Detriot in the post season for his one start. But again, that is only 1 start. So while he did have a strong showing in 2012 it was a small sample that was more of a success due to the weakness in schedule than Anderson's actual talent.

Last time Anderson was somewhat healthy in 2011 over 13 starts he had a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 6.59 K/9. Not dominating by any means.

I can't think of a legit ace who has a K/9 under 7 let alone a WHIP above 1.25.

I'm not saying that Anderson won't start or won't be any good. But it's clear that he is not the ace everyone hoped he would be when he ran through the minors the way he did years ago.

Well, ok, you went over a bunch of stuff that I explicitly said I wasn't asking about, but anyway:

A vast majority of his missed injury time is due to the TJ. I have nothing good to say about the foot fracture, and it's entirely possible he is now fulfilling the doomsayers of the "he can't stay healthy" belief, but when one injury accounts for 90% of your missed time that's hardly a trend.

You cherry picked his 2011, but that still falls into his elbow injury. For example here's the month by month breakdown:

April. 2.95 1.21 39 ip

May 4.42 1.34 38 ip

June. 9.00 2.20 5 ip

With a huge amount of his "bad" stats coming in his final two starts before he was diagnosed with the ligament tear where he posted 10.1 IP - 20 Hits - 14 ER - 4 HR's (when had given up a total of 4 over the previous 72 IP).

Here are his "basic" stats over his first 4 seasons:

2009 - 4.06 ERA 1.28 WHIP over 175 IP age 21 season. With a post all star break line of 3.48/1.19 and a Sept of 2.28/1.06

2010 - 2.80/1.19 over 112 IP. Missed time with elbow problems.

2011 - 4.00/1.33 over 83 IP and was covered above. TJ surgery.

2012 - 2.57/1.03 over 25 IP. Returned from TJ

2013 - 6.21/1.62 over 25 IP. Very good his first two starts, terrible for the middle starts when he was out and in with injury, very good last appearance before begin diagnosed with foot fracture.

Anderson posted more than acceptable stats as a 20-21 yr old in 2009, was very good the next season but missed some time with an elbow strain, then was very good until he tore the elbow the next season; and then pretty much picked up where he left of when he came back. He had one great start vs Detroit that you discount, so then you have to discount the bad start as well. They both qualify as one start.

But what I was asking was what points to him not having shown enougj to even be in the rotation? That's a pretty drastic statement.

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Well, ok, you went over a bunch of stuff that I explicitly said I wasn't asking about, but anyway:

My point extends well beyond what you "asked for". Everything I said was clear and valid reasoning to my side of the argument regardless if you asked for it or not.

Here are his "basic" stats over his first 4 seasons:

2009 - 4.06 ERA 1.28 WHIP over 175 IP age 21 season. With a post all star break line of 3.48/1.19 and a Sept of 2.28/1.06

2010 - 2.80/1.19 over 112 IP. Missed time with elbow problems.

2011 - 4.00/1.33 over 83 IP and was covered above. TJ surgery.

2012 - 2.57/1.03 over 25 IP. Returned from TJ

2013 - 6.21/1.62 over 25 IP. Very good his first two starts, terrible for the middle starts when he was out and in with injury, very good last appearance before begin diagnosed with foot fracture.

But what I was asking was what points to him not having shown enougj to even be in the rotation? That's a pretty drastic statement.

2010 with is elbow bothering him so much why was September/October his best month for ERA (obviously not counting 1 start in May)?

So clearly he hasn't been the ace of the staff in past. But let's keep in mind baseball is a what have you done for me lately sport.

What has he done lately? 1 - 4, 6.21 ERA, and a 1.62 WHIP... If Straily or Gray had those stats they would have been demoted. As much as you claim Beane loves Anderson he is a numbers guy and those aren't numbers you can love for long...

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Well, ok, you went over a bunch of stuff that I explicitly said I wasn't asking about, but anyway:

My point extends well beyond what you "asked for". Everything I said was clear and valid reasoning to my side of the argument regardless if you asked for it or not.

Here are his "basic" stats over his first 4 seasons:

2009 - 4.06 ERA 1.28 WHIP over 175 IP age 21 season. With a post all star break line of 3.48/1.19 and a Sept of 2.28/1.06

2010 - 2.80/1.19 over 112 IP. Missed time with elbow problems.

2011 - 4.00/1.33 over 83 IP and was covered above. TJ surgery.

2012 - 2.57/1.03 over 25 IP. Returned from TJ

2013 - 6.21/1.62 over 25 IP. Very good his first two starts, terrible for the middle starts when he was out and in with injury, very good last appearance before begin diagnosed with foot fracture.

But what I was asking was what points to him not having shown enougj to even be in the rotation? That's a pretty drastic statement.

2010 with is elbow bothering him so much why was September/October his best month for ERA (obviously not counting 1 start in May)?

So clearly he hasn't been the ace of the staff in past. But let's keep in mind baseball is a what have you done for me lately sport.

What has he done lately? 1 - 4, 6.21 ERA, and a 1.62 WHIP... If Straily or Gray had those stats they would have been demoted. As much as you claim Beane loves Anderson he is a numbers guy and those aren't numbers you can love for long...

I was trying, unsuccessfully, to keep it on the topic of the statement "he hasn't shown enough to be in the rotation". It would be appreciated if you could cover that. And Parker had those stats earlier this year and wasn't demoted. I think that says a lot about Straily and Gray.

And he strained the ligament in 2010, pitched again after rest, got by for awhile and then finally tore it in 2011.

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I was trying, unsuccessfully, to keep it on the topic of the statement "he hasn't shown enough to be in the rotation". It would be appreciated if you could cover that. And Parker had those stats earlier this year and wasn't demoted. I think that says a lot about Straily and Gray.

And he strained the ligament in 2010, pitched again after rest, got by for awhile and then finally tore it in 2011.

He had a 1.62 WHIP so far this year. He didn't face any power houses, he didn't see multiple teams multiple times like Straily. He is beyond an adjustment period at this point in his career.

His injuries this year weren't even arm related.

There are no more excuses anymore for this guy.

I don't get what you mean by unsuccessful? My point is you claim elbow issues in 2010, yet he pitched the best at the end of 2010 with his sore elbow? I'm just pointing out the fact that it doesn't line up entirely.

Over the last 3 seasons the guy's ERA is 4.09 and WHIP is 1.32 let alone considering how bad he was this year. How is this guy not getting better?

I get he has had some injuries but still. To me it says he coasted on his natural talent to get to the bigs and just took it for granted. I'll take the guy who had the harder path to the majors at this point.

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I was trying, unsuccessfully, to keep it on the topic of the statement "he hasn't shown enough to be in the rotation". It would be appreciated if you could cover that. And Parker had those stats earlier this year and wasn't demoted. I think that says a lot about Straily and Gray.

And he strained the ligament in 2010, pitched again after rest, got by for awhile and then finally tore it in 2011.

He had a 1.62 WHIP so far this year. He didn't face any power houses, he didn't see multiple teams multiple times like Straily. He is beyond an adjustment period at this point in his career.

His injuries this year weren't even arm related.

There are no more excuses anymore for this guy.

I don't get what you mean by unsuccessful? My point is you claim elbow issues in 2010, yet he pitched the best at the end of 2010 with his sore elbow? I'm just pointing out the fact that it doesn't line up entirely.

Over the last 3 seasons the guy's ERA is 4.09 and WHIP is 1.32 let alone considering how bad he was this year. How is this guy not getting better?

I get he has had some injuries but still. To me it says he coasted on his natural talent to get to the bigs and just took it for granted. I'll take the guy who had the harder path to the majors at this point.

I don't think any of this really answers the question of explaining the statement of "he hasn't shown enough to stay in the rotation".

It's a bit confusing too. You said a few posts ago that you thought he could come back and pitch well, but here you're taking the poorer section of his stats and seem to be implying that's the pitcher he is. I don't think anyone believes he's a 4era guy, let alone a 6, and "over the last 3 seasons" takes into account his injury affected stats and leaving out the good ones. Overall his career era is 3.74 and his whip is 1.27 over 5 seasons as he turns 25.

I'm not sure if I need to explain how injuries work and affect players. It's very common for a pitcher to get hurt but not require surgery, like straining a ligament, then letting it heal with rest, coming back and pitching until the injury becomes more severe, such as it did with Anderson. And hurting your leg can affect your pitching as much as an arm injury when you plant and push off and generate your power and follow through with your legs. That's basic stuff.

I don't know what would suggest he got by on talent and he's somehow getting worse or at least not getting better. I just would like to know what you mean in regards to "not showing enough to be in the rotation".

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Brett Anderson hasn't been fantasy-relevant for some time now. Strikeouts are mediocre, and he can't stay on the field. He's 25 years old going on 50. There was reason to be optimistic about him for awhile, but those days are long gone.

It's time for the A's to move on and begin the Straily and Gray rotation era.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch
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Colon isn't getting suspended. According to reports MLB aren't punishing guys who were disciplined last year. I'm still a believer in Brett's talent but I don't know if he can stay on the field for a long period of time anymore. I'm stashing in case that he does.

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Anyone stashing?

Could be ready for rehab assignment soon.

If Bartolo is suspended there would be a spot for him in the rotation right?

Most indications are that Bartolo won't be suspended because he served his suspension last season, and even if he is suspended Gray might get the first shot. I think we see Anderson in the bullpen unless Straily starts to get hit.

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While it's unlikely to happen for several reasons, there has been talk of putting Anderson in the bullpen.

but dude, he's Brett Anderson

Yeah, there's too many hazards in the actual bullpen. Maybe they can let him pitch from inside a plastic bubble?

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