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Detroit Tigers 2014 Outlook


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^^Can we stop parroting info that isn't true?

.347 OBP last year, .340 career OBP v. LHP

Does he hit lefties well? No. But we cant just run with a false narrative. That is NOT an "automatic out." Dude takes walks. We could use it.

False narrative? I'll assume your OBP's are correct. What does ON BASE PERCENTAGE have to do with how well someone hits?

Last year he hit .215 against lefties and the year before .199. So before coming on here and accusing me of lies.........

Are you Scott Boros?

You do know hits effect OBP right? Also hitters who work favorable counts put themselves in better hitting scenarios.

OBP is more important than BA I'll agree with those saying that. But I'll take the .300 BA and .350 OBP over the .250 BA and .365 OBP. 50 more points on your batting average is going to be more important than the 15 extra points of OBP. Really it comes down to a guy who gets hits 5% more compared to a guy who gets hits 5% less but on base 1.5% more.

Can't knock a runner in for 2nd with a walk. Walks don't fire a team up like hits do. Walking isn't contagious hitting is. If everyone on your team is walking it has much more to do so with the opposing pitcher is struggling than your team thriving.

Walking is contagious. Look at the way the great Yankees and Red Sox lineups just grind quality pitchers to death by not swinging at borderline strikes. And it wasn't just one guy doing it, it was nearly the entire lineup.

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Jackson and Avila are going to kill this team. NC is a rookie that will go through serious growing pains both with his bat and glove. I don't care if he is taking 600 ground balls a day. Real games and the pressure will get to him. The Tigers will be looking for a replacement by early May. Igesais is the wild card.He wasn't much of a hitter with the Sox as a minor leaguer. How many bad hitters and no power can ou have and win?

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Tigers pick up chamberlain for a few mill and one year? I'm sure Joba jumped at the opportunity to prove himself once more, if nothing else the kids got guts?

He really does have good stuff regardless of his on and off field struggles. He catches a lot of bad breaks and I believe was handled miserably by the Yankee org? He is simply one of those players ,IMO that would play more to a higher degree in another ball park?

Maybe Detroit is that place?

I had the chance to see him start twice, once against the Sox on a rainy night where he gave up 4 runs before recording an out then after settling down proceeded to fan 12 and look like an ace(if you could shake the first inning?) that game had me convinced he had real head issues and would be a much better pitcher elsewhere. Hope his numbers improve over the 2014 season, cause when he's on it's exciting to watch.

Oh! The second time was against the mets... It was a train wreck ,watching him was too painful? Not for nothing, it was for both teams pitching staffs. Game was a minstrel show and the mets lost more then the Yankees won when Castillo drops a routine pop up in the bottom of the 9th. Baseball!!

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Joba Chamberlain's one-year deal with the Tigers is worth $2.5 million, reports Buster Olney of ESPN.

Chamberlain could earn more with performance-bonuses. While the 28-year-old right-hander has seen his career go off course since he burst onto the scene in 2007 and 2008, the Tigers are willing to gamble on a turnaround. It's not a bad gamble at this price, though it might have been a better bet to bring back Jose Veras rather than turn down his $4 million option.

I agree 100% on the bolded statement. Look at the stats of both players. The salary difference is not that much different and if we want to make out bullpen better we can not have a good closer and nothing else. We got Joba now and we got Coke. We got Rondon. We got Krol. We got Albequerque (only proven guy other than Nathan). We have too many question marks. Not sure what DD is doing but this Bullpen has to get much better in a hurry.

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  • 3 months later...

Who is going to be the starting SS? Danny Worth? Andrew Romine that they just traded for, perhaps a deep league MI option in need for speed? Seems too costly and desperate to sign Stephen Drew and will probably have to give a lot to get Franklin.

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Can't figure out what the hell the Tigers are doing right now... signed Romine and now traded for Alex Gonzalez, giving away a chip from their Fister trade in return (Lombardozzi). That's not going to fix the hole at SS.

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Can't figure out what the hell the Tigers are doing right now... signed Romine and now traded for Alex Gonzalez, giving away a chip from their Fister trade in return (Lombardozzi). That's not going to fix the hole at SS.

The Fister - Lombardozzi thing was idiotic. Now it just turned worse and I didn't think it could. Ummm, these moves suck is what's up! lol, wtf!
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Can't figure out what the hell the Tigers are doing right now... signed Romine and now traded for Alex Gonzalez, giving away a chip from their Fister trade in return (Lombardozzi). That's not going to fix the hole at SS.

I have no clue and little faith in what Dombrowski is doing. The team is old as is, so trading away a young asset for a 37 year old non roster invitee who played 60 games the last two years makes no sense. Its like they want to amass young and old crappy SS options. I am beyond miffed at what the plan is, the roster is paper thin, bullpen is now in trouble etc.

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So, you trade a guy that could have backed up at 2B, SS, 3B and LF (potentially saving a roster spot) and who is only 25 to get a 37 year old SS who has actually played as much 1B as SS the past few years and hit .177 last year? All because he hit OK in spring training, probably facing a bunch of guys ticketed for AA ball? And this is after you already traded for a much younger "defensive minded" SS a few days ago?

Yeah, this move makes PERFECT sense.

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I sure hope Robbie Ray pans out because trading Fister for a loogy and a 37 year old Alex Gonzalez would look pretty silly.

Maybe Dombrowski just stopped caring, isnt he supposed to be the next commissioner?

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Word is Cabrera is getting a new 10 year $300 million dollar contract.

I sure hope they can find a way to surround him with some talent as Vmart and Hunter are likely aging out. Rajai Davis/Dirks is meh, SS is an offensive hole, Castellanos is unproven, Jackson is hit or miss and Avila is Avila and Kinsler is already on the decline. Theres not much coming up in the system so theres going to have to be some moves made.

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Word is Cabrera is getting a new 10 year $300 million dollar contract.

I sure hope they can find a way to surround him with some talent as Vmart and Hunter are likely aging out. Rajai Davis/Dirks is meh, SS is an offensive hole, Castellanos is unproven, Jackson is hit or miss and Avila is Avila and Kinsler is already on the decline. Theres not much coming up in the system so theres going to have to be some moves made.

Still a couple seasons of hope but we are well on our way to another 17 years of darkness.

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Word is Cabrera is getting a new 10 year $300 million dollar contract.

I sure hope they can find a way to surround him with some talent as Vmart and Hunter are likely aging out. Rajai Davis/Dirks is meh, SS is an offensive hole, Castellanos is unproven, Jackson is hit or miss and Avila is Avila and Kinsler is already on the decline. Theres not much coming up in the system so theres going to have to be some moves made.

Still a couple seasons of hope but we are well on our way to another 17 years of darkness.

Vmart and Hunter are gone after this year, theyve got no in house replacement options. That money coming off should let them resign Scherzer if they want, but rest assured Boras just saw his price go up, and then you have 3 SP and Miggy with a lot o question marks elsewhere. Im wondering how many seasons there actually are at this rate. Id say they are in win now mode but looking at their lineup I cant make myself believe it.

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^ I would love to have some of those question marks on my team.

Jackson

Smyly

Castellanos

Kinsler

Nathan

The Tigers have a good team. Everybody can't have the Cardinals pipeline.

Kinsler alright but 2B dont generally age well and his power and SB have been on decline, hes a big K guy and hes leaving a park that has buyoed his stats for years (his home/road splits are brutal). Castellanos is unproven and has huge expectations placed on him based on being the #1 prospect, Nathan is 39 and the rest of their pen is shaky, Smyly is solid Ill give you that. Their lineup is lacking at this point as I see it looking at it objectively and the age factor is huge. The window is not very wide for this team, missing the last three years hurts with the group they have. If they dont win it in the next two years I dont see it happening and I agree with what was said above things are likely to get painful around 2017 at latest.

Having a good team is one thing, but their farm system is severely lacking in talent on the way, I dont have it in front of me but I guarantee its a bottom third system.

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Here's what I'm seeing:

Newly extended Cabrera decides to take a drive with a car full of money, and gets pulled over. He tries to bribe the cops, but is arrested for DUI. The money vanishes.

Scherzer gets extended after a hot start, but post-All Star break retires from baseball because his eyes are weird and can't take the jokes anymore.

Verlander meets with Dr James Andrews who decides TJ is the best way to go. Kate Upton immediately breaks up with JV and is spotted with Andrews at some classy surgery events.

Porcello wins the AL Cy Young and almost wins MVP.

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^ I would love to have some of those question marks on my team.

Jackson

Smyly

Castellanos

Kinsler

Nathan

The Tigers have a good team. Everybody can't have the Cardinals pipeline.

Kinsler alright but 2B dont generally age well and his power and SB have been on decline, hes a big K guy and hes leaving a park that has buyoed his stats for years (his home/road splits are brutal). Castellanos is unproven and has huge expectations placed on him based on being the #1 prospect, Nathan is 39 and the rest of their pen is shaky, Smyly is solid Ill give you that. Their lineup is lacking at this point as I see it looking at it objectively and the age factor is huge. The window is not very wide for this team, missing the last three years hurts with the group they have. If they dont win it in the next two years I dont see it happening and I agree with what was said above things are likely to get painful around 2017 at latest.

Having a good team is one thing, but their farm system is severely lacking in talent on the way, I dont have it in front of me but I guarantee its a bottom third system.

Has to be bottom 5, there is literally nothing.

Baseball Prospectus - 27th

Scouting Book - 28th

Baseball America - 29th

Here is the blurb attached to the BA ranking. "Detroit traded Avisail Garcia to the White Sox in the three-team deal that netted them Jose Iglesias, and no team has mortgaged its future to win now quite like the Tigers."

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The worst part is, that it isn't a good mortgage even. More like loan sharked. An aging team with a bunch of holes and no reinforcements in the minors. If the team gets in a little injury trouble they are going to have issues, unless they are willing to throw incredible amounts of money at every bump in the road. If one guy misses time in the rotation who do they turn to now? The bullpen is still the same weakness it was last year. There isn't a lot of depth, look at the Iglesias injury. It is scary how thin they are. The Tigers are a glass cannon team and a hail storm is in the forecast.

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Yes, the Tigers had a good run and are still in the middle of the run and will soon be the Phillies. You still enjoy it while it lasts.

Then you get a comp pick for Scherzer, maybe VMart. You go draft a college 2B/SS like Kipnis or BMiller or Franklin or ..... 2-3 years and they're bopping. What I'm saying, Tigers 2017 may be just fine if any 2014/15 1st,2nd,3rd rounders hit. If not, you had a good run like the Phils. Circle of life.

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I'd trade the Mariners "vaunted" farm systems of the last 5 years for the Tigers roster of actual proven major leaguers. Unless you know how to actually develop talent, minor league systems can be overrated. Teams like the Cardinals, A's, Rays know how to do it. But teams like the Mariners, Padres, Royals who have had highly regarded farm systems the past 5 years and just produce bust after bust, do not. Tigers could probably use a Brad Miller type in there farm system though, judging by his thread he should be a 45 HR, 130 RBI, 40 SB guy as soon as this year. Maybe there is one of those in the upcoming draft?

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I'd trade the Mariners "vaunted" farm systems of the last 5 years for the Tigers roster of actual proven major leaguers. Unless you know how to actually develop talent, minor league systems can be overrated. Teams like the Cardinals, A's, Rays know how to do it. But teams like the Mariners, Padres, Royals who have had highly regarded farm systems the past 5 years and just produce bust after bust, do not. Tigers could probably use a Brad Miller type in there farm system though, judging by his thread he should be a 45 HR, 130 RBI, 40 SB guy as soon as this year. Maybe there is one of those in the upcoming draft?

Heard Trout is already wishing he could be like Brad. So does Tebow and Jordan.

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Assuming the Tigers do resign MadMax to go with JV, Smyly, and Porcello on the bump...

The Tigers will still have an infield of nick, jose, devon travis, and miggy for the next five years. That's solid if travis and nick develop as expected.

I must be the only one but I think Ajax takes his game to the next level this year and is only 27.

Avilia is only 27. He might might be any better than he has been to date but he's not awful.

That leaves filling the corner outfield spots and DH from free agency. Not an ideal situation but they are some of the easier spots to fill via smart trades, bargain signings, and creative platoons. Same with the bullpen.

I don't think the future is all that bleak. Just the unbiased opinion of a non fan.

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Assuming the Tigers do resign MadMax to go with JV, Smyly, and Porcello on the bump...

The Tigers will still have an infield of nick, jose, devon travis, and miggy for the next five years. That's solid if travis and nick develop as expected.

I must be the only one but I think Ajax takes his game to the next level this year and is only 27.

Avilia is only 27. He might might be any better than he has been to date but he's not awful.

That leaves filling the corner outfield spots and DH from free agency. Not an ideal situation but they are some of the easier spots to fill via smart trades, bargain signings, and creative platoons. Same with the bullpen.

I don't think the future is all that bleak. Just the unbiased opinion of a non fan.

Iglesias is a glove man, I dont see his bat ever being more than an 8/9 guy in the AL. I dont place any stock in A ball prospects (Travis) at this point when Im banking on the teams current window and Kinsler is under contract for three more years with signs of decline already apparent, maybe Travis is ready in two and they get a year of Kinsler in OF but Im nonplussed on that idea. Castellanos Im not willing to buy into either until I see him at the MLB level because his minor league track record while solid is uninspiring. The rate of prospects actually turning into what they are supposed to isnt very good and while I wouldnt trade the Tigers last 5 years for the Mariners farm system, it would be nice to see a system that hadnt been depleted through trade and was bereft of talent. Jackson could develop but his K issues are real and not going anywhere. Avila from watching him and the Tigers so much that 2012 season was the anomaly and his body is already breaking down from the heavy catching load. Porcello at this point is another guy that could in theory turn it on but I dont see it out of him either, hes also making $8.5 million this year and that will go up with arbitration so a decisions going to have to be made there. Could they only have to fill the corner OF spots and the DH, sure. But even if thats all they have to do and they have to do it through FA I dont know how much money there is going to be to spend.

The problem with Scherzer is two fold, one there was already an inability to work out a deal that sounded by all accounts to be very rewarding to the player which throws a wrench into the plans. Two, he and Boras have now seen the Tigers give a guy 30 million per, with options that could increase that. Their price tag sure isnt going to go down as a result of what just happened with Miggy.

The bullpen will now have two arms in Albuquerque and Rondon who have had TJ, Nathan is 39 with a two year deal and a team option but I dont know that you can count on him for too much longer. There just arent many 40 year old closers still making it happen.

I hope against all hope that my future outlook is wrong but I cant find too much to get overly excited about in the future. On top of all this, if Old Man Illitch kicks it in the next couple years I dont think anyone can predict what his son or whoever else ends up in charge will do. Thats the other looming specter with this team.

All in all they have been on a great run which has been amazing for me and any other Tigers fan. I sat through games in the 119 loss season and stuck with them through it all and will continue to do so. Its the only Detroit team that hasnt made me turn my back on them and while Im happy to see Miggy extended. The root issue for me is that giving out 10 year deals (with two vesting options) to 31 year old players is bad business. Id have been much happier to see them find a middle ground (6 years? and work year to year like David Ortiz) than commit like that. That signing starts making me ask more questions than I have answers for and thats really where Im at right now.

GO TIGERS!

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