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Toronto Blue Jays 2015 Outlook


MiggyRunsTings

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Martin is a huge singing for The Jays. Russell Martin isn't a flashy fantasy player but he is a vastly under rated real life player.

I think this contract and the general praise this deal has received with a lot of people has proved that Martin really isn't underrated. All of his supporters just love to say that. He is simply a defense first type player that unless you watch all 162 games plus hundreds of games for other teams you barely notice the difference in catcher defense.

But most knowledgable people know this already, so he is in fact not underrated. If anything, he is getting overrated by a lot of people.

His WAR is up because of a high BABIP. Yes he's great defensively, but is that worth this deal? 2011, 2012, 2013 his offense was horrible. If you assume 2 of these 5 years you are getting good offense, this probably isn't a good signing. And 2 years is a lot to give him, IMO. I'd expect him to be pretty terrible in a few years.

That must explain his 4.1 WAR in 2013 then, when is BABIP was .266. Surely..

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Martin is a huge singing for The Jays. Russell Martin isn't a flashy fantasy player but he is a vastly under rated real life player.

I think this contract and the general praise this deal has received with a lot of people has proved that Martin really isn't underrated. All of his supporters just love to say that. He is simply a defense first type player that unless you watch all 162 games plus hundreds of games for other teams you barely notice the difference in catcher defense.

But most knowledgable people know this already, so he is in fact not underrated. If anything, he is getting overrated by a lot of people.

His WAR is up because of a high BABIP. Yes he's great defensively, but is that worth this deal? 2011, 2012, 2013 his offense was horrible. If you assume 2 of these 5 years you are getting good offense, this probably isn't a good signing. And 2 years is a lot to give him, IMO. I'd expect him to be pretty terrible in a few years.

I think you're getting "horrible" mixed up with "league average." And league average is above average for a catcher.

He was nothing more than an average catcher 2011-2013. If anything, he had below average offensive seasons. This year he got on base with a jacked up BABIP. How great are his offensive numbers when his OBP regulates back down to .350. Yes, still good, but without power/speed its average. And that should be the expectation.

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Martin is a huge singing for The Jays. Russell Martin isn't a flashy fantasy player but he is a vastly under rated real life player.

I think this contract and the general praise this deal has received with a lot of people has proved that Martin really isn't underrated. All of his supporters just love to say that. He is simply a defense first type player that unless you watch all 162 games plus hundreds of games for other teams you barely notice the difference in catcher defense.

But most knowledgable people know this already, so he is in fact not underrated. If anything, he is getting overrated by a lot of people.

His WAR is up because of a high BABIP. Yes he's great defensively, but is that worth this deal? 2011, 2012, 2013 his offense was horrible. If you assume 2 of these 5 years you are getting good offense, this probably isn't a good signing. And 2 years is a lot to give him, IMO. I'd expect him to be pretty terrible in a few years.

I think you're getting "horrible" mixed up with "league average." And league average is above average for a catcher.

He was nothing more than an average catcher 2011-2013. If anything, he had below average offensive seasons. This year he got on base with a jacked up BABIP. How great are his offensive numbers when his OBP regulates back down to .350. Yes, still good, but without power/speed its average. And that should be the expectation.

Incorrect. From 2011-2013 he hit .225/.321/.395 with a 99 wRC+. That is league average, though you're already backtracking from "horrible" to "if anything, below average." And again, league average is above average for a catcher. Never mind his plus defense. He certainly wasn't an average catcher.

Also over those 3 years he had a BABIP of .247 compared to a career rate of .289, so I would say that's not an accurate representation of his value going forward either. He's getting a little older so .289 is probably optimistic; the .276 Steamer projects is probably about right.

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Paid alot of $$$ for that .336 BABIP

Nah they paid for defense, walks and power in that order. Everyone knows he's a 250 hitter.

Two years ago he got 2-$17 in FA -- and he was two years younger.

What's changed other than his BABIP and the frothy market?

Market inflation is big in the last year and this off-season with the extra money teams got. He doesn't go for 2-17 in this market if he came off that kinda year...also that was an unlucky year. So his fair market value isn't even close to that today even with a "normal" BABIP.

He was a 4 Win player with a reasonable in .266 BABIP in his first year with the Pirates..

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Let's put it this way. Do you think that contract is going to look good if/when (more likely when) Martin reverts back to being the .235/.333/.370 hitter he consitently was in the five years prior to 2014?

Yes. They're paying him to be a 2-2.5 WAR player, and if he hits that over 120-130 games he will easily do that. There's more to the game of baseball than 5x5 roto stats.

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If he makes 5 starters and relievers better and still throws out 38% of runners stealing....yeah I would call that a success. The jays don't have problems scoring runs, that's why we tolerated Ryan Goins because he was good defensively. Russell is better offensively than Goins and it looks like the Jays will have a more offensive weapon at 2nd base this year whether it be Travis or Lawrie. Losing Melky might hurt though.

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If he makes 5 starters and relievers better and still throws out 38% of runners stealing....yeah I would call that a success. The jays don't have problems scoring runs, that's why we tolerated Ryan Goins because he was good defensively. Russell is better offensively than Goins and it looks like the Jays will have a more offensive weapon at 2nd base this year whether it be Travis or Lawrie. Losing Melky might hurt though.

Fair enough.

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Let's put it this way. Do you think that contract is going to look good if/when (more likely when) Martin reverts back to being the .235/.333/.370 hitter he consitently was in the five years prior to 2014?

Yes. They're paying him to be a 2-2.5 WAR player, and if he hits that over 120-130 games he will easily do that. There's more to the game of baseball than 5x5 roto stats.

Actually I wasn't even considering 5x5 roto stats.

Now that I am thinking about it, Martin's decline in stolen bases in 2014 was worrisome. If I were the Blue Jays, I'd be concerned ( ;) ).

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Let's put it this way. Do you think that contract is going to look good if/when (more likely when) Martin reverts back to being the .235/.333/.370 hitter he consitently was in the five years prior to 2014?

Yes. They're paying him to be a 2-2.5 WAR player, and if he hits that over 120-130 games he will easily do that. There's more to the game of baseball than 5x5 roto stats.

Actually I wasn't even considering 5x5 roto stats.

Now that I am thinking about it, Martin's decline in stolen bases in 2014 was worrisome. If I were the Blue Jays, I'd be concerned ( ;) ).

You flat out said his offense was horrible before 2014. The only way you'd come to that conclusion is if you were only looking at his batting average.

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Let's put it this way. Do you think that contract is going to look good if/when (more likely when) Martin reverts back to being the .235/.333/.370 hitter he consitently was in the five years prior to 2014?

Yes. They're paying him to be a 2-2.5 WAR player, and if he hits that over 120-130 games he will easily do that. There's more to the game of baseball than 5x5 roto stats.

Actually I wasn't even considering 5x5 roto stats.

Now that I am thinking about it, Martin's decline in stolen bases in 2014 was worrisome. If I were the Blue Jays, I'd be concerned ( ;) ).

You flat out said his offense was horrible before 2014. The only way you'd come to that conclusion is if you were only looking at his batting average.

Fwiw, this is what I look at:

11-18-201410-57-12PM_zps7e875f6e.jpg

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