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Toronto Blue Jays 2015 Outlook


MiggyRunsTings

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Stroman

Dickey

Estrada

Happ

Chavez

Maybe they are going to sign Heward or Upton and make pitching not matter.

Maybe... But they were a really good defensive team last year anyway.

Gotta remember they have Hutch who was pretty good before last year. They also have the "luxury" of using Sanchez as a start should they want. And there have been rumblings the last month that they want to move Dickey for some type of reliever package, furthering the potential move of Sanchez to the rotation.

I think the Jays played this right. They were faced with two options... based off 2016 Streamer (I know, sorry)

Price - $25million - 2.84ERA (215IP)... paid like your ace

Stroman - $517,000 - 3.70ERA (201IP)

Estrada - $3.9million - 4.47ERA (174IP)

Dickey - $12million - 4.30ERA (194IP)

Chavez - $2.15million - 3.90ERA (159IP)

COST: $43,576,000... payroll well over $130,000,000... very little room for any depth players (relief, starting rotation, bats on the bench, etc.)

vs

Stroman - $517,000 - 3.70ERA (201IP)

Estrada - $3.9million - 4.47ERA (174IP)

Dickey - $12million - 4.30ERA (194IP)

Chavez - $2.15million - 3.90ERA (159IP)

Happ - $12million - 3.80ERA (146IP)

COST: $30,576,000... that's around $13,000,000 less than with Price and you can sign a couple of depth guys.

This team doesn't need to win by allowing 1R... they are still the craziest offensive team in baseball. All they need is their pitchers to keep the games around 3/4R.

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TOR ranked 12th in team era at 3.80. So last year they already on average were giving up the 3-4 runs per game.

Yup, exactly. They got by with average pitching because they were scoring 5+ runs a game (usually). I think it was 5.4 runs per game when they were playing .500 baseball... I think.

Point is... the team is built to survive without an ace. And for all we know Stroman could post a line of 180-200IP with an ERA of 3.00, Estrada could sit around that 3.20ERA area, Hutch could come back and pitch in the mid 3s... So many unknowns. They all could also implode and post ERAs of 10. Gonna be a fun ride.

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TOR ranked 12th in team era at 3.80. So last year they already on average were giving up the 3-4 runs per game.

Yup, exactly. They got by with average pitching because they were scoring 5+ runs a game (usually). I think it was 5.4 runs per game when they were playing .500 baseball... I think.

Point is... the team is built to survive without an ace. And for all we know Stroman could post a line of 180-200IP with an ERA of 3.00, Estrada could sit around that 3.20ERA area, Hutch could come back and pitch in the mid 3s... So many unknowns. They all could also implode and post ERAs of 10. Gonna be a fun ride.

This strategy works up until the playoffs when your bats start running into a bunch of elite pitching all at once. Getting an ace to counter last season was a good move. They just got the wrong ace regards a stellar playoff track record.

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TOR ranked 12th in team era at 3.80. So last year they already on average were giving up the 3-4 runs per game.

Yup, exactly. They got by with average pitching because they were scoring 5+ runs a game (usually). I think it was 5.4 runs per game when they were playing .500 baseball... I think.

Point is... the team is built to survive without an ace. And for all we know Stroman could post a line of 180-200IP with an ERA of 3.00, Estrada could sit around that 3.20ERA area, Hutch could come back and pitch in the mid 3s... So many unknowns. They all could also implode and post ERAs of 10. Gonna be a fun ride.

This strategy works up until the playoffs when your bats start running into a bunch of elite pitching all at once. Getting an ace to counter last season was a good move. They just got the wrong ace regards a stellar playoff track record.

The Mets had better pitching than the Royals, but the Royals won.

Outside of MadBum, I can't really think of too many times an ace shut down an entire team in a 7 game series. There is a Fangraphs article that outlines how getting an ace doesn't mean you win... in fact most teams won on the backs of the offence.

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BBT which "ACE" do you feel would have been better? It was bullpens that usually made the difference in each series

I was just an allusion to Price's playoff record "jinx" and meant as a joke.

Okay because personally I felt price was the best option for the Jays.

Outside of him, I'd look at Zim for a less amount of money. But Price would have been best, for sure.

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Copied from another thread.

Markets of 3-5 million people

--------------------------------------------------------

4,682,897 Toronto Blue Jays

Something people forget is that the Jays market is actually 12+ million. The GTA might only have a population of 5 million, but southern Ontario has a population of 12 million. Plus the rest of the country. The team broke all kinds of ratings records, merch records, and was talked about more in the Canadian media than any other (Canadian) team before.

So yeah, a small "home" market, but a huge "street" market.

5 teams: Phillies, Tigers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, D-Backs running at a negative income.

The Jays are run by one of the largest Telecom companies on the planet: Rogers. This company is worth billions of dollars and earned over 3 billion this last quarter. The baseball team might be running a negative income, but it doesn't matter.

Let's assume it costs 250 million to the run team (everything in) for the season. And Rogers earns 3 billion each quarter (12 billion total)... You're looking at what, 2% of their total earning on the years? Rogers doesn't care. The Jays are like a tiny little fly sitting on the backside of an elephant... they don't notice it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-success-reaping-big-profitable-rewards-for-rogers/article26640038/

“We’ve doubled down on sports,” Rogers CEO Guy Laurence said at an investor conference in Montreal on Sept. 17, pointing to Rogers’ hockey coverage and the boost it has given to the company’s Sportsnet television network. “At the same time, we invested in the Jays. And this year we’ve got a hell of a return on our hands.”
“Realistically, on the financial side, it’s not the biggest part of the business,” Laurence said of baseball a few days earlier, telling reporters, “but it’s certainly one of the most important to us, particularly at this moment in terms of supporting the Blue Jays as they go through this period.”

The Jays also made a profit this year.

Forbes magazine prepares annual estimates of professional sports teams’ valuations and revenues and in March it pegged the Blue Jays’ revenue for the 2014 season at $227-million, including $48-million in ticket sales, and estimated the club had an operating loss (negative earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA) of $18-million.

...telecom analyst Greg MacDonald used the Forbes numbers... He estimated the club could see an additional $20-million at the gate and a boost of about $40-million from higher merchandise sales and ad revenue. Higher costs, including player salaries, could increase expenses by about $20-million, he said.

That all adds up to a net increase of about $40-million or a profit of around $20-million for the year, which he said represents about 50 cents per share at Rogers’ then-current stock price of $43.96 per share.

TL;DR:

Rogers doesn't care about the Jays unless it makes them money, team has a lot of fans, Rogers should invent, it's the 3rd largest market in NA (all of Canada)

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It's true that the Jays themselves are a tiny fraction of their business, but if you think of it in the context of the TV side of the business (i.e. they own Sportsent, who owns exclusive TV rights for which they pay the Jays way under market value) it becomes a more important piece of total company earnings. The bottom line is this...Sportsnet makes Rogers more money when they don't have to pay the Jays a ton for their TV rights....that makes them look better to market analysts and improves their share price.

So Rogers model, as an owner of both the sports and TV side of their business, is to put together a competitive team (to improve ratings etc.) for as little money as possible.

Now as a fan I would much rather they just finance the sports side to make the team as competitive as possible but in their 10+ years of ownership they have never done that, so I'm not holding my breath.

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It's true that the Jays themselves are a tiny fraction of their business, but if you think of it in the context of the TV side of the business (i.e. they own Sportsent, who owns exclusive TV rights for which they pay the Jays way under market value) it becomes a more important piece of total company earnings. The bottom line is this...Sportsnet makes Rogers more money when they don't have to pay the Jays a ton for their TV rights....that makes them look better to market analysts and improves their share price.

So Rogers model, as an owner of both the sports and TV side of their business, is to put together a competitive team (to improve ratings etc.) for as little money as possible.

Now as a fan I would much rather they just finance the sports side to make the team as competitive as possible but in their 10+ years of ownership they have never done that, so I'm not holding my breath.

This doesn't really matter when fielding a competitive team increases revenue across the country.

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