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Michael Pineda 2015 Outlook


MiggyRunsTings

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I'm feeling really good about this kid this year. Rave reviews from his opening gig today; his last pitch (he tossed 2 shutout innings, 2 K, 0 BB, 1 H, 17 of 25 for strikes) hit 95 mph. I don't expect him to sit there, but encouraging nonetheless to show the mid 90s fastball in your first appearance of ST. His command has picked up where he left off from last year, impeccable.

Barring health, I think this guy could turn into a top of rotation stud this year. I think this will be the last year you can get him for dirt cheap.

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Pineda will be great....for the 100-150 innings he manages to pitch. Draft away if you think that is worth it. I'm not saying it is or isn't....just that that is likely what you will get from him.

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i get the frustration with his health (i was an owner last 2 years), BUT, the sample size doesn't seem to be that big. he pitched a full season in Seattle, and then had a serious shoulder injury. It's of my understanding shoulder surgeries take quite some time to heal. This winter has been the first normal winter for Pineda since the injury (ie. he wasn't rehabbing an injury). I'm just saying, sure he's had a rough go since the shoulder issue, but the only season he's had prior to that injury he was a horse. If the shoulder is healed, I don't see why it would be a surprise to see him go 180+

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He's logged 125 innings (including minor league rehab) in the last 3 years. It would surprise a lot of people if he pitched 180+ innings. Pineda is entering Brett Anderson territory.

ESPN has him projected for just under 170. I don't think it would be that surprising, but we shall see. Again, it's all been the same injury (right shoulder).

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I think he will be great early. IMO I would try to draft him with the intent on dealing him early. I know this is easier said than done, but some people might forget about the injury concerns if he is dominating after May

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He's logged 125 innings (including minor league rehab) in the last 3 years. It would surprise a lot of people if he pitched 180+ innings. Pineda is entering Brett Anderson territory.

ESPN has him projected for just under 170. I don't think it would be that surprising, but we shall see. Again, it's all been the same injury (right shoulder).

LOL. Who cares what ESPN has him projected for. Their fantasy advice is, um, mediocre, at best.

Rotochamp has him projected for 130, Steamer for 173, ZIPS for 81, CAIRO for 86, Razzball has him for 162, Davenport has him for 142, Zeile has 148...all of these projection systems are considered to be far better than the joke that is ESPN. As you can see...most are pretty down on him as far as IP. It's definitely worth noting that Steamer is usually regarded as the best projection system for pitchers overall...so there's that for you. But quoting ESPN for fantasy baseball projections? That's like quoting Saturday Night Live in a political discussion.

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He's logged 125 innings (including minor league rehab) in the last 3 years. It would surprise a lot of people if he pitched 180+ innings. Pineda is entering Brett Anderson territory.

ESPN has him projected for just under 170. I don't think it would be that surprising, but we shall see. Again, it's all been the same injury (right shoulder).

LOL. Who cares what ESPN has him projected for. Their fantasy advice is, um, mediocre, at best.

Rotochamp has him projected for 130, Steamer for 173, ZIPS for 81, CAIRO for 86, Razzball has him for 162, Davenport has him for 142, Zeile has 148...all of these projection systems are considered to be far better than the joke that is ESPN. As you can see...most are pretty down on him as far as IP. It's definitely worth noting that Steamer is usually regarded as the best projection system for pitchers overall...so there's that for you. But quoting ESPN for fantasy baseball projections? That's like quoting Saturday Night Live in a political discussion.

I don't understand why you felt the need to go on a rant/tangent about ESPN...let's just stick to the points, shall we? Again, I don't think it would be surprising to see him go 180. The fact that you have such a wide array of projections seems to support my entire argument that this may be the final year he can be had for dirt cheap. I don't really see the downside here given he's healthy right now; you ride the 20+ round/$2 lotto ticket until you have reason not to. Trying to predict how many IP he's going to reach seems fruitless for a guy with zero value and all upside, but you do you.

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In response to that, I'll just re-quote myself, and bold the applicable portion:

Pineda will be great....for the 100-150 innings he manages to pitch. Draft away if you think that is worth it. I'm not saying it is or isn't....just that that is likely what you will get from him.

I haven't said anything about what I think his value is. However, projecting IP is absolutely relevant when trying to determine value, even for late mid round fliers (his NFBC ADP is 169, which is 14/15th round territory...that's hardly a throwaway valueless pick). You need to project IP as a key element for determining value compared to the other pitchers being drafted around him. And when it comes to guys like Pineda...you absolutely cannot project 180 innings, IMO. A best reasonable guess for him is in the 125-150 IP area, again IMO. Now I'm not saying the actual number 125 is concrete, just that you have to give him a significant reduction in projected IP given his recent track record.

And the reason I dissed ESPN should be quite obvious....you quoted their projection for his IP. I simply tried to make you aware that using their numbers may not be the best plan.

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In response to that, I'll just re-quote myself, and bold the applicable portion:

Pineda will be great....for the 100-150 innings he manages to pitch. Draft away if you think that is worth it. I'm not saying it is or isn't....just that that is likely what you will get from him.

I haven't said anything about what I think his value is. However, projecting IP is absolutely relevant when trying to determine value, even for late mid round fliers (his NFBC ADP is 169, which is 14/15th round territory...that's hardly a throwaway valueless pick). You need to project IP as a key element for determining value compared to the other pitchers being drafted around him. And when it comes to guys like Pineda...you absolutely cannot project 180 innings, IMO. A best reasonable guess for him is in the 125-150 IP area, again IMO. Now I'm not saying the actual number 125 is concrete, just that you have to give him a significant reduction in projected IP given his recent track record.

And the reason I dissed ESPN should be quite obvious....you quoted their projection for his IP. I simply tried to make you aware that using their numbers may not be the best plan.

only used their projection bc it was fresh in my mind. I use many sources for help with projections. but it had little to do with my point which is it wouldn't really be a surprise for him to log significant time as there are reputable fantasy websites (whether you think so or not they are reputable) who have him projected to go around 170/180.

im all about sample sizes and yes I understand how much time he's missed over last 3 years but it's not like its been multiple injuries; just one serious one that historically has taken a long time to recover from. whether the shoulder is 100% or not is anyone's guess...ie. these projection sites who are predicting his ip mean next to nothing... the fact that there is such huge variance in his predictions should tell you that no one knows anything and it's a crap shoot. there is obviously more risk then say a Cole Hamels who pitches 200 seemingly every year. but the fact that as mentioned he's coming off his first normal winter and all reports are the shoulder is healthy, it seems like great value in the lower rounds on a guy that could return front of rotation numbers

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That article says the complete opposite of "Velocity is all the way back." .

That was my point, he was 97-98 pre-injury, Yanks say he's in 93-range now.

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That article says the complete opposite of "Velocity is all the way back." .

That was my point, he was 97-98 pre-injury, Yanks say he's in 93-range now.

Sorry, I am a tad slow.........

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He went 125 in my yahoo draft yesterday. The word is out, and at 125, that's still a bit risky with that park and injury concerns

125 is a little pricey, but I am fine with it depending on the nature of the league. I ended up taking Pineda as the 50th or so starter off the board at like 146.

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