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Carlos Rodon 2015 Outlook


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Rodon has pitched 130 and 120 IP in each of the past 2 years in all levels combined. Let's say Rodon is capped at 160-170 IP. He has 10 IP thus far. If he pitches the next 6 weeks out of the pen, making 3 1-IP appearances a week, that'll be 18 IP, getting him to 28 IP into June. There will be around 110-115 games remaining the rest of the year, which is about 22 more starts per starter. If I'm optimistic and give him 6 IP per start, that's 132 IP, taking him to 160 IP on the year. ChiSox might choose to skip him a couple times to preserve his arm, giving him 20-25 extra IP for the playoffs before he reaches 170 IP on the season.

This is obviously all out the window if Danks and Noesi suck so bad that the ChiSox urgently swap Rodon into the rotation for one of them.

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Yeah, I imagine they are starting him out in the pen just to limit his innings now so they don't have a Strasburg situation and have to do it at the end of the year, so he'll be able to pitch down the stretch/in the playoffs.

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Rodon has pitched 130 and 120 IP in each of the past 2 years in all levels combined. Let's say Rodon is capped at 160-170 IP. He has 10 IP thus far. If he pitches the next 6 weeks out of the pen, making 3 1-IP appearances a week, that'll be 18 IP, getting him to 28 IP into June. There will be around 110-115 games remaining the rest of the year, which is about 22 more starts per starter. If I'm optimistic and give him 6 IP per start, that's 132 IP, taking him to 160 IP on the year. ChiSox might choose to skip him a couple times to preserve his arm, giving him 20-25 extra IP for the playoffs before he reaches 170 IP on the season.

This is obviously all out the window if Danks and Noesi suck so bad that the ChiSox urgently swap Rodon into the rotation for one of them.

Maybe I'm a jerk for saying this.... But I honestly feel Rodon's arm is going to go at some point next year... So the way I see it just unleash him and see if he holds if not it's better to get the TJS earlier than later in my opinion. That was the whole reason he slid down to The White Sox, was the over usage in college. Otherwise this guy was the clear #1 pick. This also could take care of the whole Super 2 thing (I know mean to say but I truly feel his UCL is going to go). If it doesn't go and he's just an extreme horse then that's great too, but let's find out.

Rodon had a ton of innings on his arm in college... From age 19 to age 21 Rodon has logged 370.33 innings (NCAA + MiLB). Innings that entail heavy slider usage as well as high number of Ks and high number of BBs. So those weren't your regular old innings, Rodon gets deep into counts quite often and runs the pitch count easily.

He's clear upgrade over both Danks and Noesi... Honestly Danks should go to the pen and be a lefty out of the pen and allow Rodon to take his spot. Noesi still has some developing to possibly do and it would be bad to have 4 of our starters be left handed, you need to force teams in a series to mix their lineup up so they can't get guys into grooves.

I truly think he gets solid usage as a 1 - 2 inning guy out of the pen at a time for the next couple of weeks. But eventually The White Sox will be at the point of having to put him in the rotation. I don't see The Sox being able to keep him out of the rotation come May. The division is too good and they've seen Danks and Noesi too well over the past couple of years. A new and more talented arm could do them wonders.

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Rodon has pitched 130 and 120 IP in each of the past 2 years in all levels combined. Let's say Rodon is capped at 160-170 IP. He has 10 IP thus far. If he pitches the next 6 weeks out of the pen, making 3 1-IP appearances a week, that'll be 18 IP, getting him to 28 IP into June. There will be around 110-115 games remaining the rest of the year, which is about 22 more starts per starter. If I'm optimistic and give him 6 IP per start, that's 132 IP, taking him to 160 IP on the year. ChiSox might choose to skip him a couple times to preserve his arm, giving him 20-25 extra IP for the playoffs before he reaches 170 IP on the season.

This is obviously all out the window if Danks and Noesi suck so bad that the ChiSox urgently swap Rodon into the rotation for one of them.

Maybe I'm a jerk for saying this.... But I honestly feel Rodon's arm is going to go at some point next year... So the way I see it just unleash him and see if he holds if not it's better to get the TJS earlier than later in my opinion. That was the whole reason he slid down to The White Sox, was the over usage in college. Otherwise this guy was the clear #1 pick. This also could take care of the whole Super 2 thing (I know mean to say but I truly feel his UCL is going to go). If it doesn't go and he's just an extreme horse then that's great too, but let's find out.

Rodon had a ton of innings on his arm in college... From age 19 to age 21 Rodon has logged 370.33 innings (NCAA + MiLB). Innings that entail heavy slider usage as well as high number of Ks and high number of BBs. So those weren't your regular old innings, Rodon gets deep into counts quite often and runs the pitch count easily.

He's clear upgrade over both Danks and Noesi... Honestly Danks should go to the pen and be a lefty out of the pen and allow Rodon to take his spot. Noesi still has some developing to possibly do and it would be bad to have 4 of our starters be left handed, you need to force teams in a series to mix their lineup up so they can't get guys into grooves.

I truly think he gets solid usage as a 1 - 2 inning guy out of the pen at a time for the next couple of weeks. But eventually The White Sox will be at the point of having to put him in the rotation. I don't see The Sox being able to keep him out of the rotation come May. The division is too good and they've seen Danks and Noesi too well over the past couple of years. A new and more talented arm could do them wonders.

Thanks for providing that insight. When there are huge upside prospects, people tend to not look at the whole picture and be consumed with the potential. It's also refreshing since most posters always attack someone with insight that doesn't support the hype, but I value it.

I haven't looked into this myself, but are there any current elite SPs who had such high usage at this age as Rodon to see how other similar cases turned out?

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^ thought he dropped in the draft was because of velocity drop? but i guess that can be linked to the the high innings

danks going today vs cle

Yes he lost velo, his innings were down, and a lot of concern on his usage in college. If Danks gets hammered Rodon may take his next start...

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he had 114 inn as a 19 year old freshman, 132 inn as 20 year old so., and 98 inn as a 21 year old junior

is that anything crazy compared to a high school 18 year old getting drafted and moving to A ball?

Yes. That's a lot of innings for a 19 - 21 year old to throw. Some guys end up being okay with a similar proball workload but remember NCAA ends in June. So you are putting all those innings on him in a shorter span with a much higher disregard to pitch count and arsenal usage.

Jameson Taillon had less usage than that in proball and blew his arm out already.

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yea the innings/length of season is a good point but

urias pitched 87 innings as a 17 year old

kohl steward also had 87 innings as a 19 year old

max fried pitched 118 as a 19 year old

every arm is different so who knows its a gamble either way but i also agree see what he has and see if hes the horse they thought they drafted

no point in babying him to have him blow his elbow out in 3 years rather have it happen sooner than later if it happens

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yea the innings/length of season is a good point but

urias pitched 87 innings as a 17 year old

kohl steward also had 87 innings as a 19 year old

max fried pitched 118 as a 19 year old

every arm is different so who knows its a gamble either way but i also agree see what he has and see if hes the horse they thought they drafted

no point in babying him to have him blow his elbow out in 3 years rather have it happen sooner than later if it happens

Agreed. Everyone is different and you never know when you have that horse innings eater. Urias I hope The Dodgers are careful with because I think he can be special.

A lot of pitchers in the minors won't start throwing the slider until AAA or in the big leagues (Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer when they won Cy Youngs they started using the slider more).

The slider is clearly the harder pitch for hitters to read and hit. Harder to identify, later break, less predictable break... But it comes at a price as it taxes an arm much more than a curveball.

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I new the slider taxes the arm but had no clue most dont trow it it till AAA seems like that would slow up there development

to all of a sudden learn a new pitch

kershaw and scherzer really didnt need the slider early in there career

and if scouts/doctors/coaches know the slider is that bad for arms why in the world wouldnt you stress an elite change curve fb cutter combo (yes the slider is the toughest pitch to hit but is it worth it?)

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I new the slider taxes the arm but had no clue most dont trow it it till AAA seems like that would slow up there development

to all of a sudden learn a new pitch

kershaw and scherzer really didnt need the slider early in there career

and if scouts/doctors/coaches know the slider is that bad for arms why in the world wouldnt you stress an elite change curve fb cutter combo (yes the slider is the toughest pitch to hit but is it worth it?)

I shouldn't say most... As I really don't know. I just read all the time Pitcher X introduces slider into his arsenal in AAA or early in his MLB career. A lot of times when you see a pitcher on the cusp of a breakout introduce a slider it's a good thing for that year generally.

It all depends in terms of what a guy throws. Some guys need that slider to compete. Which is the main thing you need to compete, if that means blowing your arm out in 6 years then so be it, that's the price to be a big leaguer for some guys. Some guys in the big leagues won the genetic lottery but most guys didn't. I read how Kershaw is going to get back more on the curveball this year (he'll still use the slider just not as much probably).

Also I've been reading bad things on the cutter too.... The Orioles especially have been vocal about the theory of the cutter decreasing the velocity of your fastball over time.

I am constantly reading about pitching mechanics and arsenal usage. As I coach a travel baseball team. My travel baseball organization pays for me to go to a coaching clinic every year... Every year I choose the pitching clinic too.

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This article covers most of the stuff already mentioned in this thread with innings, but also speculates him starting the first week of May: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/119388490/white-sox-top-pitching-prospect-carlos-rodon-a-special-talent-who-can-help-chicago-rotation

Scully nick named Rodon's slider public enemy #1? Or Kershaws curveball?

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"I shouldn't say most... As I really don't know. I just read all the time Pitcher X introduces slider into his arsenal in AAA or early in his MLB career. A lot of times when you see a pitcher on the cusp of a breakout introduce a slider it's a good thing for that year generally.

It all depends in terms of what a guy throws. Some guys need that slider to compete. Which is the main thing you need to compete, if that means blowing your arm out in 6 years then so be it, that's the price to be a big leaguer for some guys. Some guys in the big leagues won the genetic lottery but most guys didn't. I read how Kershaw is going to get back more on the curveball this year (he'll still use the slider just not as much probably).

Also I've been reading bad things on the cutter too.... The Orioles especially have been vocal about the theory of the cutter decreasing the velocity of your fastball over time.

I am constantly reading about pitching mechanics and arsenal usage. As I coach a travel baseball team. My travel baseball organization pays for me to go to a coaching clinic every year... Every year I choose the pitching clinic too."

yea you see the decrease in velocity on the cutter with mo and even kenley he was in high 90 before he threw the cutter all the time

and while most big leaguers do need whatever edge to stay up with all these young top shelf prospects with great arms blowing there elbows out so young it seems like the correct blueprint would be develope the slider like kershaw after a few years in the pros but then again alot will not be good without the slider

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They aren't going to let him start this early. If they do he runs out of innings well before the playoff run and the playoffs. If they keep him in the pen for a month then send him down to get stretched out, he's likely available for a playoff push.

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They aren't going to let him start this early. If they do he runs out of innings well before the playoff run and the playoffs. If they keep him in the pen for a month then send him down to get stretched out, he's likely available for a playoff push.

how in the world does throwing out the pen in mlb help the sox then they are going to send him down to waste more innings down in AAA to get stretched back out?

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They aren't going to let him start this early. If they do he runs out of innings well before the playoff run and the playoffs. If they keep him in the pen for a month then send him down to get stretched out, he's likely available for a playoff push.

how in the world does throwing out the pen in mlb help the sox then they are going to send him down to waste more innings down in AAA to get stretched back out?

They throw him out of the pen to slow down his innings. He isn't going 200IP this year. Then when they've slowed him down to a projected 160 or so, they send him to AAA to get stretched out and bring him back up once he's stretched out. That way they have him for the playoff run and possible playoffs.

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so let's say you are the White Sox management. You had a very strong off-season and look primed to make a run (on paper). You have a miserable 4-5 in your rotation, which balances out how great your 1-2 is. There is an absolute stud waiting in the minors, who in my amateur opinion appears to be the left-handed Matt Harvey. What do you do?

a.) leave him in the minors to develop further

b.) put him in the bullpen as a lefty specialist

c.) trade him to the Padres for Melvin Upton Jr.

d.) all of the above

e.) put him in the rotation to form a three headed monster with Sale and Szamaradigjha

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