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Shohei Ohtani - Angels


avswsop91
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i believe 7 years is free agency in japan. i've never heard of a rule that they have to wait a certain # of years to be posted. the teams can do that whenever they want, i think.

for obvious reasons they usually tend to wait until a year or two before the player's free agency in order to maximize the use they can get out of him and still get paid.

the idea is that this might not apply to otani in particular because of the leverage he gained by holding out and threatening to go straight to the dodgers out of high school. (this is referenced in something someone already posted.) in theory, there may be a handshake deal in place that he agreed to sign with the fighters with the understanding that they would post him after a certain agreed upon number of years, less than the usual, e.g. soon.

as noted in the passan tweets, there was buzz at the winter meetings that it's happening next winter. but there's no way to know for sure until it happens.

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i believe 7 years is free agency in japan. i've never heard of a rule that they have to wait a certain # of years to be posted. the teams can do that whenever they want, i think.

for obvious reasons they usually tend to wait until a year or two before the player's free agency in order to maximize the use they can get out of him and still get paid.

the idea is that this might not apply to otani in particular because of the leverage he gained by holding out and threatening to go straight to the dodgers out of high school. (this is referenced in something someone already posted.) in theory, there may be a handshake deal in place that he agreed to sign with the fighters with the understanding that they would post him after a certain agreed upon number of years, less than the usual, e.g. soon.

as noted in the passan tweets, there was buzz at the winter meetings that it's happening next winter. but there's no way to know for sure until it happens.

I'm still looking over some of the posting stuff as well, but if I understand things correctly, you are right. I think the article meant to say Nippon has his rights for 5.5 more years, but he can be posted any time. I can't speak for the author though. Could have been a typo for all I know.

If I understand things correctly, over from Kazuto Yamazaki over at dynasty guru (he lives in Tokyo and follows NPB), he doesn't expect Otani to be posted until 2019. However, you are correct on the handshake deal. There are rumors a clause exists in his contract.

Further increasing the speculation on Otani, doesn't the current CBA expire after this upcoming season? Could the posting system change? What if the 20 million number changes to a number that entices more Japanese teams to post top guys? More from Yamazaki:

So, here’s the biggest question. When does this high-octane hurler head to the big leagues? Under the current CBA, it’s hard to see the Nippon Ham Fighters post him earlier than the 2019 off-season. Though there might be a major change in the posting system after the 2016 season. If the new rules favor NPB clubs, we may expect a sooner timetable for him.

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Here's something pretty interesting that someone asked Badler on twitter:

J.P. @Jaypers413

@baseballamerica @jjcoop36 @benbadler Fun question - about where would Shohei Ohtani have ranked on the #BA100, were he eligible?

Ben Badler @BenBadler 5h5 hours ago

I'd take Shohei Ohtani over any pitcher on this list.

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So when is this guy going to be in the MLB? Any chance this year?

"any chance this year" as in pitching in MLB in 2016? no. would have happened by now.

beyond that, read the thread, we're talking about it. short answer is, no one's sure. MAYBE next year, 2017, there are apparently some rumors about that. but they're probably just rumors.

but given the way he handled his high school graduation, he's almost definitely coming at some point.

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/13/ranking-major-league-managers/2uMbIsDuIuhvMIEGTmniNI/story.html?event=event25

Shohei Otani, RHP/OF, Nippon — Scouts who watched him throw in Arizona feel he’ll be the next Japanese superstar when he’s posted, although that won’t likely happen soon. He’s 21, throws 101 m.p.h., and hits for power. “He can do both,” said an AL scout. “He’s going to have to make a choice. Either way he’s going to be an All-Star-caliber player as a hitter or pitcher.” The tendency will be to keep him as a pitcher because he lights up radar guns. But he likes to hit.

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  • 3 weeks later...

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2016/03/02/baseball/japanese-baseball/otani-matches-speed-mark-during-preseason-game/#.Vtc4415VK1G

Shohei Otani, who has thrown the fastest pitch recorded by a Japanese player, matched his career best of 162 kph on Wednesday.

In a preseason game against the Yomiuri Giants at Sapporo Dome, the right-handed Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters ace struck out Garrett Jones swinging in the fourth inning. Otani, who shares the Nippon Professional Baseball speed record with former Giants reliever Marc Kroon, started Jones off with two fastballs of 160 and 162 kph, before getting the left-handed hitter to miss a forkball.

Otani, who is scheduled to start on Opening Day when the Fighters visit the Lotte Marines on March 25, struck out eight batters and allowed two hits in five scoreless innings.

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They are saying he would probably dominate right now in MLB. The CBA in Japan expires December 1st of this year which might affect his timetable to get him here sooner.

The way it stands, it will probably be more like 2019 I think. But he should still be a top dynasty asset, because when you are drafting pitchers in dynasty rookie drafts you are expecting 2-3 years for them to reach the bigs anyway most of the time.

Just always the injury worry with pitching prospects.

Also, his most recent preseason game yesterday he hit 100mph again and went 5 scoreless, 2 hits, 8 k's.

Edited by jackmurphy
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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

If you're in a keeper/dynasty league that allows you to add a guy like this right now you must do it.

I say 7/180 as well. After Strasburg he'll be the #2 best SP in the free agency class. It's a weak group next year.

Just going to repeat this and add that even if you don't necessarily want to keep him the hype alone will allow you to get someone you do want for him in a trade.

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Re: Otani & Fujinami ETA to MLB

There is a bit of a timeline. 7 years from the NPB signing is the farthest it would be for a Japanese player interested in (and talented enough) to play in the MLB. See Darvish, Tanaka, Dice K, etc.

That would be 2020 for Fujinami and Otani (Otani has clearly expressed his intent to play in the MLB. Fujinami has as well -- I was browsing the deep Japanese internet and found him say so himself on a Japanese talk show). Possibility they get posted early, although there's not a lot of financial incentive to do so with current posting bond only at $20 million.

Some of this may change in the CBA this offseason. Additionally, there's a rumored handshake deal for Otani -- he may be coming early. Remember -- he was set on going to the MLB and disregarding NPB entirely. But there's strong nationalist pressure to at least put some time in the NPB. I've heard 2018 as a possibility.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Shohei Ohtani - SP/OF Japan (was: Otani)

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