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Shohei Ohtani - Angels


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Offtopic --

Matt bush went from SS to RP now. Wonder if he will ever get a chance at SP.

Mitch Moreland was the most impressive position player I've seen pitch in the majors, I think.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/74619336/rangers-mitch-moreland-debuts-as-pitcher-in-lopsided-loss

On topic --

In any case, I don't think Otani will actually DH. Clubs baby pitchers with pitch counts, I don't see any club accepting the extra risk of injury from extra ABs when it's unlikely he'll be above DH replacement level anyways. He'd have to be REALLY good for a club to consider it part time. Even Madbum with his HRs is a wall below average batter.

So much money and clubs are risk averse. Maybe he goes to the NL to get a few ABs, still a link to the Dodgers.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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Offtopic --

Matt bush went from SS to RP now. Wonder if he will ever get a chance at SP.

Mitch Moreland was the most impressive position player I've seen pitch in the majors, I think.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/74619336/rangers-mitch-moreland-debuts-as-pitcher-in-lopsided-loss

On topic --

In any case, I don't think Otani will actually DH. Clubs baby pitchers with pitch counts, I don't see any club accepting the extra risk of injury from extra ABs when it's unlikely he'll be above DH replacement level anyways. He'd have to be REALLY good for a club to consider it part time. Even Madbum with his HRs is a wall below average batter.

So much money and clubs are risk averse. Maybe he goes to the NL to get a few ABs, still a link to the Dodgers.

He's been well below average this year, but in 2014 and 2015 he was above average

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Offtopic --

Matt bush went from SS to RP now. Wonder if he will ever get a chance at SP.

Mitch Moreland was the most impressive position player I've seen pitch in the majors, I think.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/74619336/rangers-mitch-moreland-debuts-as-pitcher-in-lopsided-loss

On topic --

In any case, I don't think Otani will actually DH. Clubs baby pitchers with pitch counts, I don't see any club accepting the extra risk of injury from extra ABs when it's unlikely he'll be above DH replacement level anyways. He'd have to be REALLY good for a club to consider it part time. Even Madbum with his HRs is a wall below average batter.

So much money and clubs are risk averse. Maybe he goes to the NL to get a few ABs, still a link to the Dodgers.

He's been well below average this year, but in 2014 and 2015 he was above average

Wow, you're right. His wOBA in 2014 was .329 and in 2015 it was .318.

League average wOBA was .310 in 2014, .313 in 2015, and .316 so far in 2016.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,3,4,6,12,11,13,21,22,-1,23,37,38,39,-1,34,35,110,-1,50,61,40,-1,41,47,-1,102,106,-1,45,44,43,-1,209,210,211,-1,46,48,-1,58&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

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  • 5 months later...

Question that I think applies to this thread...

 

I'm in a very deep AL-only auction keeper league with a reserve draft. Should Otani be the #1 pick in the reserve draft? Or is the consensus that he will sign with a NL team to keep his Babe Ruthein dreams alive? 

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On 12/4/2016 at 8:17 PM, mpbaseball22 said:

Rumor is that his NPB team has given permission to post him next offseason, but the new CBA doesnt allow for international signings until players are 25 (old age was 23). This means he probably wont come over until 2019 I'm guessing

I thought if they are younger than 25 the cap of 5 million gets inforced

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42 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

I thought if they are younger than 25 the cap of 5 million gets inforced

There is no cap on an indivisible signing bonus as far as I know, but teams can't exceed their total bonus pool allotment, and the max they could have in their pool (after acquiring some via trade) is about $10 million. So that's the absolute max he could get, as I understand it, and the team doing it would have to have traded for bonus pool money to do it

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But the question is, is he a pitcher, a hitter, or both??

 

It really would be a shame for him to come over and not be given multi-position status in fantasy leagues- i.e OF/P. The odds are he'll be down as a pitcher and only NL teams will get to benefit from him. But would he be allowed to still hit in off days? That would be incredibly cool to watch.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 12/10/2016 at 5:19 AM, swfcdan said:

But the question is, is he a pitcher, a hitter, or both??

 

It really would be a shame for him to come over and not be given multi-position status in fantasy leagues- i.e OF/P. The odds are he'll be down as a pitcher and only NL teams will get to benefit from him. But would he be allowed to still hit in off days? That would be incredibly cool to watch.

 

He will definitely be signed to be a full-time SP.  He looks like a future Ace.  Not just a #1 SP, but a legit top-5/top-10 SP in the majors.  2016 was the first time he looked like a terrific hitter.  I doubt he'll play the field much on his off days, as management will not want him throwing with max effort in the field.  I certainly think he could pinch hit if he proves 2016 wan't a fluke, with the ideal scenario being in the AL as a full-time DH and SP.  The chances he's really that good of a hitter and a team lets him do it is probably less than 10% though.

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  • 5 weeks later...

False information on Rotoworld blub for Otani today.  They stated he is likely to be posted and receive a huge contract following the 2017 season.  I am not sure how they are not aware of the MLB new CBA rules stating a hard cap on foreign players under the age of 25.  Otani is 22.  We may see him before he turns 25, but he'll be leaving $100+ million on the table unless he's confident he can sidestep MLB authority on the contract situation.

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One more article/quote to give a ray of sunshine to the idea of Otani coming over next year: 

 

http://riveraveblues.com/2016/12/shohei-otani-still-expected-to-be-posted-next-offseason-which-is-great-news-for-the-yankees-147990/

 

Quote

Anyway, according to Jim Allen, Otani’s manager with the Nippon Ham Fighters, Hideki Kuriyama, said he still expects Otani to come over next offseason despite the hard cap. He’s doing it for the challenge, not necessarily the money. “I think money is not a matter for Shohei. I think what he has in his mind is where and what kind of batters he wants to face,” said Kuriyama to Kyoto.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, BJays1993 said:

1 year MiLB deal is possible tho, right? Then he can sign a huge contract after that? Or maybe they just modify the CBA for Otani? 

 

 

Something to keep an eye on.

He wouldn't be eligible for free agency until he had six years of service time. Unless they modify the CBA for him, he's basically screwed

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If he comes over next year, he would be eligible to make a $10 mil signing bonus and arbitration dollars year to year.  If he comes over after turning 25, he would likely receive $120-$150 million guaranteed.  He's that good.

 

I didn't say the rumors of him coming over next offseason had zero merit, just Rotoworld's blurb that he'll get a massive contract is false.

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On 12/6/2016 at 11:10 AM, BJays1993 said:

Question that I think applies to this thread...

 

I'm in a very deep AL-only auction keeper league with a reserve draft. Should Otani be the #1 pick in the reserve draft? Or is the consensus that he will sign with a NL team to keep his Babe Ruthein dreams alive? 

Obviously is a 50-50 risk in terms of singing him.  That said, if you look at when he might come over, which might be winter 18-19?  Isnt that the time we expect a lot of the Yankee bad money to be off the books and them signing people like drunken sailors again?  Could see a presser with Him, Bryce and Machado in Pinstripes.  

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  • 1 month later...

our league has rules where you can't draft a player unless they are already signed with a mlb team before the season starts. with that being said, i am eyeballing this guy in our league and hope to draft him next season if he does sign with a team. rumors have it he will be coming over to play in 2018 meaning he should sign with a team sometime in 2017 or early 2018 right. that is the only way i see him being available in our league. 

If he is available next season...is he the consensus #1 pick that should come off the boards in a rookie draft?

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17 hours ago, larfboy said:

our league has rules where you can't draft a player unless they are already signed with a mlb team before the season starts. with that being said, i am eyeballing this guy in our league and hope to draft him next season if he does sign with a team. rumors have it he will be coming over to play in 2018 meaning he should sign with a team sometime in 2017 or early 2018 right. that is the only way i see him being available in our league. 

If he is available next season...is he the consensus #1 pick that should come off the boards in a rookie draft?

 

Is the pope catholic?

 

...otani is more talented currently than anyone not in the majors, and has the highest ceiling than anyone currently not in the majors.

 

you do the math, and decide if that's worth the #1 pick.

Edited by rlaalsrb
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  • 4 weeks later...
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Shohei Ohtani - SP/OF Japan (was: Otani)

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