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Your big miss...you got it wrong.


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We all love to tout our successes. When we knew about <Insert Player Name> before everyone else. But who were you completely wrong about?

Two that come to mind for me are:

Nelson Cruz- It must've been at the beginning of the 2009 breakout. I remember on these boards saying nothing had changed and he was no more than Marcus Thames. Would run into some HRs now and again but was never going to be that good.

Jacob deGrom- Even after last season, I just didn't see anything in his minor league profile to suggest he could duplicate it. Well, dead wrong. Dude is a legit ace. You watch him and see it. And that K/BB > 5/1 :wub::wub::wub:

Who are your big misses?

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What are you talking about? I'm a rotoworld poster, I'm never wrong about anything.

Seriously though, I second whoever said JD Martinez. It was just stubbornness, lack of research, and laziness on my part that lead to this. I totally just assumed that last year's breakout was a mirage, but I didn't really have any sound rationale for believing this other than the fact that he was garbage in Houston. In hindsight, he had actually made some serious adjustments to his swing, and his 2014 numbers actually don't seem all that fluky.

I think the trick here is to learn why we missed on certain players and to recognize what biases we have in order to hopefully eliminate this happening in the future.

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My worst ever is I dealt Greinke during his CY Young year because he had like an 8.00 ERA in the Spring. Dealt him and Ubaldo for Webb. That year was the year Webb had his first of many major injuries. Since then I've never given a darn about spring stats, regardless of sport.

This year, not many, been lucky to have a good year so far. I guess based on injury I'd say Hyun Jin-Ryu. Thought I'd get #2 type starter stats and really pushed aside the shoulder concerns.

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I had the option of trading for Billy Butler or Paul Goldschmidt in a keeper after the 2012 season, a season where Butler went 29/107 at age 26. Goldy had only one full season under his belt.

Yep, I chose Butler.

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I had the option of trading for Billy Butler or Paul Goldschmidt in a keeper after the 2012 season, a season where Butler went 29/107 at age 26. Goldy had only one full season under his belt.

Yep, I chose Butler.

At least you didn't trade Goldy in a keeper for Albert Pujols after Goldy's April in 2013, which is like two weeks before it became crystal clear Albert would never be the same and Goldy would be a top 5 beast for years...\

From what I remember at least Butler was going before Goldy in drafts going into 2013, whereas I should've known better after it was obvious Goldy would definitely break out... I still kick myself over that.

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Dealt Rizzo at the beginning of the season. Didn't think the average would be there. Dropped J-Up at the beginning of the 2008 season. No explanation for that one.

A lot of wrong this year. Ozuna, Kemp, Simmons, Lawrie, Garcia, Wright, anyone after round 20.

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My worst ever was picking Helton over Pujols prior to 2001. The owner kept him until the trade to Anaheim...

We had to repick draft order that year too. There was a Seinfeldian squabble about the drawing of straws and interference by a table with the strawman...

The guy who would have picked first overall and taken Pujols has ended up with the most overall titles since then (4). Pujols owner last title was 2003 (2 total), mine 2000(1). 5 second place finishes for me, but none since 2009 lol.

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