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JR Smith 2015-2016 Season Outlook


LuSamSiam

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Any idea why JR only played 22 min, and even Richard Jefferson played more than him? Was it foul trouble?

Probably limiting his minutes because he's coming off a minor injury? Hopefully it's not a regular thing.. or else his value will really go down the gutter.

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Someone want to enlighten me as to why, in a span of 5 days, the roto blurbs on him go from "we don't blame you for cutting him" to "should be owned in all leagues?" Obviously, he's "wildly inconsistent" and he's hot right now, but I don't understand the necessity to own him. Add his crushing %s and the fact that he doesn't contribute to anything but points and treys, and he's really just a CJ Miles clone that can't shoot FTs and has less of a leash since Mo is still there, and Shump/Kyrie will return eventually.

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Someone want to enlighten me as to why, in a span of 5 days, the roto blurbs on him go from "we don't blame you for cutting him" to "should be owned in all leagues?" Obviously, he's "wildly inconsistent" and he's hot right now, but I don't understand the necessity to own him. Add his crushing %s and the fact that he doesn't contribute to anything but points and treys, and he's really just a CJ Miles clone that can't shoot FTs and has less of a leash since Mo is still there, and Shump/Kyrie will return eventually.

Please check his stat last year.

46G with CAV He avergaed > 31:45MIN 42.5% FG / 2.8 3PTM / 81.8%FT / 3.5RB / 2.5AST / 1.1TO / 1.4STL / 0.4BLK /12.7PTS

He gave 3rd value for 9 cats!!! :)

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at last somebody who knows what he's talking about 8th. Yes he is streaky, but since he's in the cavs he's been very consistent. who else provide 2.8 3pt with 1.4 steals in the late rounds. If you are eiher in a punt ft or fg team, pick him up!!! he's cheap!

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Someone want to enlighten me as to why, in a span of 5 days, the roto blurbs on him go from "we don't blame you for cutting him" to "should be owned in all leagues?" Obviously, he's "wildly inconsistent" and he's hot right now, but I don't understand the necessity to own him. Add his crushing %s and the fact that he doesn't contribute to anything but points and treys, and he's really just a CJ Miles clone that can't shoot FTs and has less of a leash since Mo is still there, and Shump/Kyrie will return eventually.

Please check his stat last year.

46G with CAV He avergaed > 31:45MIN 42.5% FG / 2.8 3PTM / 81.8%FT / 3.5RB / 2.5AST / 1.1TO / 1.4STL / 0.4BLK /12.7PTS

He gave 3rd value for 9 cats!!! :)

I'm aware of that, thanks. I've been doing my research on him, especially since the roto blurbs were putting up that same fact constantly last week--that he was at 3rd round value after ASB last year. But I'll bite and give you the reasons why I'm a bit more hesitant on him.

Digging even deeper than the blind numbers from last year--he's a career 73% shooter from the line. What we're seeing now with his current shooting at the line (25% on limited attempts), is the righting of the mean and is an example of why his FT is likely to regress in a very big way. It's strange, honestly, that he shoots so poorly from the line because he's actually a great shooter (more on that later).

His defensive stats were also high for him (stls were 2nd highest in his career and blks the highest). I don't see much of a change in steals, though admittedly he has only 5 in 9 games currently, so about .5 spg; he'll likely improve this as well, but it should also be noted that his career average for steals is only 1 spg, so again, unless he's going to suddenly be better defensively at age 30, I don't think he'll necessarily get 1.4 spg either.

His treys are, I think, the most important factor and the one I think he'll continue to shine in. Though he's wickedly inconsistent, he does get hot and bolsters his 0/5 duds from deep with games like 7/11 or 5/6 from deep. So it's really feast or famine--hardly Korver or Curry. This isn't to say he's not good, because CJ Miles is worth owning at times. Personally, I've watched videos analyzing his shot and in game as well. He has near perfect form (better than Curry, who is unorthodox but undoubtedly effective). His only problem is that he jacks up so many contested jumpers. His effectiveness from range with the Cavs is due to their all star cast of Lebron, K Love, and Kyrie, all of whom demand enormous defensive attention and all of whom can pass. Therefore, JR was a spot up shooter for wide open looks, which he's perfect at; his shot selection/efficiency with the Nuggets and Knicks was a byproduct, I think, of being second banana to Melo only, and being forced to be a secondary scorer which isn't his game.

Don't have a problem with the FG%, rebs and assists, or even scoring, since I think they'd all stay consistent if not for the bigger problem. My concern is that the Cavs are different in 2 ways from last year. The first is that they've got Mo Will now. I think this is the biggest issue, because Mo isn't just going to go away once Kyrie returns. He'll get at least 20 minutes, especially with the way he's playing, and he also shoots treys fairly well, which is JR's main role. It might not affect JR to the point where he's unrosterable, but it will take some minutes and some touches at the SG spot.

My second gripe is that the Cavs also signed Rich Jeff. You may not think that's a big deal at all. After all, he's a washed up old man. But the one thing Rich Jeff does do well is shoot treys. The guy's at 41%, and he's a career 38% shooter from deep. He can also log heavy minutes, as shown when JR was out, and play defense even past his prime. Naturally, his minutes will trend down, to about 10-15 minutes when JR's fully healthy. But it's still something, and the reason why the Cavs would take him is to add firepower at the SF spot to spell Lebron. Combine that with a healthy Mo, along with a glut of guards (James Jones, Delly, Shump eventually) and I don't think JR's going to get 31 minutes a night. Perhaps 28 or so.

This is not to say he's bad at all, because I'm really hoping that he cleans up the efficiency with better players around him, and it should also be noted that he's lowered his TOs as well from his career averages due to not having to put it on the floor. However, I'm definitely not expecting 3rd round value, or even mid-round value (especially since the efficiency will always be a factor, and since from experience I only really expect points, treys, and a few stls from him, which are 3 cats historically the easiest to find on the wire). He'll be a good late round target, as long as you're okay with inconsistency and efficiency woes, and I myself am thinking of taking him. I'm just telling y'all to temper your expectations and realize that "ERRMAIGERRD 3rd round value on the wire!!!" is a little silly.

TL;DR: Keep your expectations in check; there are reasons why he'll regress to career averages (including additional Cavs personnel and just hitting the mean of numbers), though he does have potential to maintain at least some level of his play from last year's post-ASB.

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Someone want to enlighten me as to why, in a span of 5 days, the roto blurbs on him go from "we don't blame you for cutting him" to "should be owned in all leagues?" Obviously, he's "wildly inconsistent" and he's hot right now, but I don't understand the necessity to own him. Add his crushing %s and the fact that he doesn't contribute to anything but points and treys, and he's really just a CJ Miles clone that can't shoot FTs and has less of a leash since Mo is still there, and Shump/Kyrie will return eventually.

Please check his stat last year.

46G with CAV He avergaed > 31:45MIN 42.5% FG / 2.8 3PTM / 81.8%FT / 3.5RB / 2.5AST / 1.1TO / 1.4STL / 0.4BLK /12.7PTS

He gave 3rd value for 9 cats!!! :)

I'm aware of that, thanks. I've been doing my research on him, especially since the roto blurbs were putting up that same fact constantly last week--that he was at 3rd round value after ASB last year. But I'll bite and give you the reasons why I'm a bit more hesitant on him.

Digging even deeper than the blind numbers from last year--he's a career 73% shooter from the line. What we're seeing now with his current shooting at the line (25% on limited attempts), is the righting of the mean and is an example of why his FT is likely to regress in a very big way. It's strange, honestly, that he shoots so poorly from the line because he's actually a great shooter (more on that later).

His defensive stats were also high for him (stls were 2nd highest in his career and blks the highest). I don't see much of a change in steals, though admittedly he has only 5 in 9 games currently, so about .5 spg; he'll likely improve this as well, but it should also be noted that his career average for steals is only 1 spg, so again, unless he's going to suddenly be better defensively at age 30, I don't think he'll necessarily get 1.4 spg either.

His treys are, I think, the most important factor and the one I think he'll continue to shine in. Though he's wickedly inconsistent, he does get hot and bolsters his 0/5 duds from deep with games like 7/11 or 5/6 from deep. So it's really feast or famine--hardly Korver or Curry. This isn't to say he's not good, because CJ Miles is worth owning at times. Personally, I've watched videos analyzing his shot and in game as well. He has near perfect form (better than Curry, who is unorthodox but undoubtedly effective). His only problem is that he jacks up so many contested jumpers. His effectiveness from range with the Cavs is due to their all star cast of Lebron, K Love, and Kyrie, all of whom demand enormous defensive attention and all of whom can pass. Therefore, JR was a spot up shooter for wide open looks, which he's perfect at; his shot selection/efficiency with the Nuggets and Knicks was a byproduct, I think, of being second banana to Melo only, and being forced to be a secondary scorer which isn't his game.

Don't have a problem with the FG%, rebs and assists, or even scoring, since I think they'd all stay consistent if not for the bigger problem. My concern is that the Cavs are different in 2 ways from last year. The first is that they've got Mo Will now. I think this is the biggest issue, because Mo isn't just going to go away once Kyrie returns. He'll get at least 20 minutes, especially with the way he's playing, and he also shoots treys fairly well, which is JR's main role. It might not affect JR to the point where he's unrosterable, but it will take some minutes and some touches at the SG spot.

My second gripe is that the Cavs also signed Rich Jeff. You may not think that's a big deal at all. After all, he's a washed up old man. But the one thing Rich Jeff does do well is shoot treys. The guy's at 41%, and he's a career 38% shooter from deep. He can also log heavy minutes, as shown when JR was out, and play defense even past his prime. Naturally, his minutes will trend down, to about 10-15 minutes when JR's fully healthy. But it's still something, and the reason why the Cavs would take him is to add firepower at the SF spot to spell Lebron. Combine that with a healthy Mo, along with a glut of guards (James Jones, Delly, Shump eventually) and I don't think JR's going to get 31 minutes a night. Perhaps 28 or so.

This is not to say he's bad at all, because I'm really hoping that he cleans up the efficiency with better players around him, and it should also be noted that he's lowered his TOs as well from his career averages due to not having to put it on the floor. However, I'm definitely not expecting 3rd round value, or even mid-round value (especially since the efficiency will always be a factor, and since from experience I only really expect points, treys, and a few stls from him, which are 3 cats historically the easiest to find on the wire). He'll be a good late round target, as long as you're okay with inconsistency and efficiency woes, and I myself am thinking of taking him. I'm just telling y'all to temper your expectations and realize that "ERRMAIGERRD 3rd round value on the wire!!!" is a little silly.

TL;DR: Keep your expectations in check; there are reasons why he'll regress to career averages (including additional Cavs personnel and just hitting the mean of numbers), though he does have potential to maintain at least some level of his play from last year's post-ASB.

Yes,it is good for you to do your own research :) I thought you didn't aware of this so I post.I don't give much credit for Roto blurbs.I always do my own research and analysis when drafting or adding players.

To me,I value Jr.Smith at least a top 100 Fantasy players and still expect him to have a good year.So I added him every league that dropped him.Oh,I didn't expect him to give me 3rd round value.But I would be really glad if he did though lol.
His fantasy ranking in last 5 years from 2011-2015 are #94,#66,#57,#96 and #75 (#36 last 3 months with Cavs) and he was quite bad for his first 8 games last year.
It is fun and this is a part of playing fantasy game when people value a player differently.You may be right or ....who knows.Nice talking to you :)
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