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Trevor Story 2016 Outlook


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No false alarm this time.

Purple Row@PurpleRow 37m

Trevor Story will be in the Opening Day lineup for the #Rockies, per @harding_at_mlb. http://atmlb.com/21RZpNZ

Expect Ks, and an AVG south of .270, but he'll be hitting 2nd at Coors, and the power is real. 20/20 potential at SS.

This feels like such a boom/bust, high risk/high reward thing. Here's to hoping this is Tulo 2.0, minus the injury bug.

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Obviously, sell high if you can; the hype is pretty crazy. Otherwise, ride him through this roller coaster. If he can hit just a lick at Coors, he can easily be a top 10 SS, considering how bad the SS pool is.

I expect this thread to be one of the longest in 2016.

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The kid has legit power and above average seed. I'm not sure what's not to like here. Not much to worry about with him hitting in Coors.

The average will be terrible. He Ks a lot and hits a ton of fly balls which will keep the BABIP down

Love the power, speed, and lineup spot though

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Was trying to come up with a good comp for him. Coor's is such a unique hitting environment - not so much because of the added HR's but because of the added AVG. Such a huge outfield it is a BABIP machine.

Came up with two players to think about - Josh Rutledge and Dexter Fowler.

Over 947 PA's with the Rockies Rutledge had a .315 BABIP and .259 AVG and showed some power (19 HR) and speed (21 sb). He lost the job due to his defense (-20.9 combined on FanGraphs defensive metrics over that time span!) and was largely a boom / bust player.

I think Story is a better defender and better overall prospect so would look at Rutledge as a floor for what he can do.

Over nearly 2,100 PA's with the Rockies Fowler has a .349 BABIP and a .272 AVG again with a mix of power (36 HR) and speed (56 sb).

Prorated to 500 PA's an average Fowler season was:

.272 AVG, 9 HR, 72 R, 42 RBI, 13 SB

Fangraphs has Story projected for:

.248 AVG (.324 BABIP), 15 HR, 52 R, 56 RBI, 14 SB.

For a player with around a .345 BABIP over his minor league career I would put the over / under on his AVG at .265.

I think with 500 PA's he could be looking at a 15/15 season as a SS with a .265 AVG - for a waiver wire pick up or end game play that is great value.

So yes - sell high if you can but recognize he could be a great value as well.

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Whats the story on his lineup spot

Batting 2nd as mentioned:

1. Charlie Blackman - CF

2. Trevor Story -SS

3. Carlos Gonzalez - RF

4. Nolan Arenado - 3B

If he carries what he's doing into the season - along with hitting in the two-hole - we could be looking at a very productive player at a weak position that we all got for cheap. His talents certainly pass the eye test to go along with the numerical results.

My Prediction: 500ish AB -- 96/24/78/.264...15-20 SB

Waited on SS with intentions of him joining the squad. Hope it works out. Either way I'm excited.

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Was trying to come up with a good comp for him. Coor's is such a unique hitting environment - not so much because of the added HR's but because of the added AVG. Such a huge outfield it is a BABIP machine.

Came up with two players to think about - Josh Rutledge and Dexter Fowler.

Over 947 PA's with the Rockies Rutledge had a .315 BABIP and .259 AVG and showed some power (19 HR) and speed (21 sb). He lost the job due to his defense (-20.9 combined on FanGraphs defensive metrics over that time span!) and was largely a boom / bust player.

I think Story is a better defender and better overall prospect so would look at Rutledge as a floor for what he can do.

Over nearly 2,100 PA's with the Rockies Fowler has a .349 BABIP and a .272 AVG again with a mix of power (36 HR) and speed (56 sb).

Prorated to 500 PA's an average Fowler season was:

.272 AVG, 9 HR, 72 R, 42 RBI, 13 SB

Fangraphs has Story projected for:

.248 AVG (.324 BABIP), 15 HR, 52 R, 56 RBI, 14 SB.

For a player with around a .345 BABIP over his minor league career I would put the over / under on his AVG at .265.

I think with 500 PA's he could be looking at a 15/15 season as a SS with a .265 AVG - for a waiver wire pick up or end game play that is great value.

So yes - sell high if you can but recognize he could be a great value as well.

Neither Fowler nor Rutedge hit the obscene number of flyballs Story has hit, which A. Will make his raw power play up, and B. Hurts his BABIP.

.265 is a VERY optimistic projection and I think it's closer to his upside than an over/under, given his K rate and FB tendency.

Also, I bet neither Rutledge or Story ever got Mike Trout comps from, um, trained baseball eyes:

Me: "What'd you think of that guy Trevor Story?"

Pops: "He looked great. Sort of like Mike Trout."

Let the hype train roll on.

(From minors thread)
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Love the upside, worth the price of acquisition for sure. Not doubting he is worth being drafted late or picked up (as would any SS with power should be)

Still worried how big the holes in the swing actually are gonna be against the next level. Will it actually affect ability to translate his power fully against advanced pitchers with access to advanced scouting reports as he gets his reps in. Does his patience work against him and falls behind in the count too much and the lower contact rate leads to even more K's and weak contact.

He seemed to only really show Pull HR power from the Milb spray charts. Not the worst thing (Nolan Arenado is pull happy, but he doesn't have Nolan's Plus hit tool)

Lots of things I'll be looking for watching him this year to gauge how "for real" he is. as it were.

Otherwise

Back your usually schedule Hype machine

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Whats the story on his lineup spot

Batting 2nd as mentioned:

1. Charlie Blackman - CF

2. Trevor Story -SS

3. Carlos Gonzalez - RF

4. Nolan Arenado - 3B

If he carries what he's doing into the season - along with hitting in the two-hole - we could be looking at a very productive player at a weak position that we all got for cheap. His talents certainly pass the eye test to go along with the numerical results.

My Prediction: 500ish AB -- 96/24/78/.264...15-20 SB

Waited on SS with intentions of him joining the squad. Hope it works out. Either way I'm excited.

Those numbers are incredibly high for 2016.

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Was trying to come up with a good comp for him. Coor's is such a unique hitting environment - not so much because of the added HR's but because of the added AVG. Such a huge outfield it is a BABIP machine.

Came up with two players to think about - Josh Rutledge and Dexter Fowler.

Over 947 PA's with the Rockies Rutledge had a .315 BABIP and .259 AVG and showed some power (19 HR) and speed (21 sb). He lost the job due to his defense (-20.9 combined on FanGraphs defensive metrics over that time span!) and was largely a boom / bust player.

I think Story is a better defender and better overall prospect so would look at Rutledge as a floor for what he can do.

Over nearly 2,100 PA's with the Rockies Fowler has a .349 BABIP and a .272 AVG again with a mix of power (36 HR) and speed (56 sb).

Prorated to 500 PA's an average Fowler season was:

.272 AVG, 9 HR, 72 R, 42 RBI, 13 SB

Fangraphs has Story projected for:

.248 AVG (.324 BABIP), 15 HR, 52 R, 56 RBI, 14 SB.

For a player with around a .345 BABIP over his minor league career I would put the over / under on his AVG at .265.

I think with 500 PA's he could be looking at a 15/15 season as a SS with a .265 AVG - for a waiver wire pick up or end game play that is great value.

So yes - sell high if you can but recognize he could be a great value as well.

Neither Fowler nor Rutedge hit the obscene number of flyballs Story has hit, which A. Will make his raw power play up, and B. Hurts his BABIP.

.265 is a VERY optimistic protection and I think it's closer to his upside than an over/under, given his K rate and FB tendency.

Also, I bet neither Rutledge or Story ever got Mike Trout comps from, um, trained baseball eyes:

Me: "What'd you think of that guy Trevor Story?"

Pops: "He looked great. Sort of like Mike Trout."

Let the hype train roll on.

(From minors thread)

Its not directly the FB tendanciy that leads to lower BABIP.. Its the fact that that more extreme uppercut swings can be jammed more often into pop ups or the very weak FBs.

Chris Davis has no problem maintaining healthy BABIP despite high FB% and GB's being shifted, because he can maintain a low Pop up rate and translate oppo power when the pitch dictates it, despite heavy pull tendency.

Haven't seen enough of Story to know if his swing has that typical flaw of an uppercut..but given that he was suppose to only have average at best raw power. Probably is the case..

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Was trying to come up with a good comp for him. Coor's is such a unique hitting environment - not so much because of the added HR's but because of the added AVG. Such a huge outfield it is a BABIP machine.

Came up with two players to think about - Josh Rutledge and Dexter Fowler.

Over 947 PA's with the Rockies Rutledge had a .315 BABIP and .259 AVG and showed some power (19 HR) and speed (21 sb). He lost the job due to his defense (-20.9 combined on FanGraphs defensive metrics over that time span!) and was largely a boom / bust player.

I think Story is a better defender and better overall prospect so would look at Rutledge as a floor for what he can do.

Over nearly 2,100 PA's with the Rockies Fowler has a .349 BABIP and a .272 AVG again with a mix of power (36 HR) and speed (56 sb).

Prorated to 500 PA's an average Fowler season was:

.272 AVG, 9 HR, 72 R, 42 RBI, 13 SB

Fangraphs has Story projected for:

.248 AVG (.324 BABIP), 15 HR, 52 R, 56 RBI, 14 SB.

For a player with around a .345 BABIP over his minor league career I would put the over / under on his AVG at .265.

I think with 500 PA's he could be looking at a 15/15 season as a SS with a .265 AVG - for a waiver wire pick up or end game play that is great value.

So yes - sell high if you can but recognize he could be a great value as well.

Neither Fowler nor Rutedge hit the obscene number of flyballs Story has hit, which A. Will make his raw power play up, and B. Hurts his BABIP.

.265 is a VERY optimistic protection and I think it's closer to his upside than an over/under, given his K rate and FB tendency.

Also, I bet neither Rutledge or Story ever got Mike Trout comps from, um, trained baseball eyes:

Me: "What'd you think of that guy Trevor Story?"

Pops: "He looked great. Sort of like Mike Trout."

Let the hype train roll on.

(From minors thread)

Its not directly the FB tendanciy that leads to lower BABIP.. Its the fact that that more extreme uppercut swings can be jammed more often into pop ups or the very weak FBs.

Chris Davis has no problem maintaining healthy BABIP despite high FB% and GB's being shifted, because he can maintain a low Pop up rate and translate oppo power when the pitch dictates it, despite heavy pull tendency.

Haven't seen enough of Story to know if his swing has that typical flaw of an uppercut..but given that he was suppose to only have average at best raw power. Probably is the case..

Well, you're right in that regard. Wonder what Story's popup rate was in the minors? He has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields fairly well

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