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Mitch Keller - SP PIT


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1 hour ago, machine3 said:

Fangraphs has him at #18 in their midseason prospect rankings, right behind Kopech and Gore. So the hype is still there for the kid. 

I still expect him to be up in the bigs this year, and the Bucs rotation is far from settled right now. 

 

Yep, rotowire dropped him waaaaaaay down, not sure what he did to deserve it except maybe not overperform like some other guys.

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Keller pitched a complete game shutout in the playoffs last night:   https://www.milb.com/milb/news/mitch-keller-spins-first-career-shutout-for-altoona-curve-in-eastern-league-semis/c-253103

Super-2 isn't a concern. Even with the one day he spent on the roster in May, Keller is easily past the Super-2 deadline. Under the most conservative tiimelines, team use the first week of June, but t

I think Idaho Jones or Dakota Thomas is next in the pecking order...then Keller???

17 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

Another solid outing the other day. 

 

8 innings 1 hit 2 walks 6 k

 

Really don’t know what Keller has left to prove, would be pretty disappointing if he isn’t given a shot this year.

Kuhl having forearm issues. 

Left last night’s game early 

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The recent news I've read is that he is "unlikely" to be up this year. I have him stashed in my NA spot but wondering if there might be better options. It doesn't sound like he's getting  much of a chance this year. Anyone have reason to feel differently ?

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On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 8:59 AM, fletch44 said:

The recent news I've read is that he is "unlikely" to be up this year. I have him stashed in my NA spot but wondering if there might be better options. It doesn't sound like he's getting  much of a chance this year. Anyone have reason to feel differently ?

 

I'm wondering the same. Is he a wasted spot in re-drafts at the NA spot?

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Keller has a rocky AAA debut last year posting his worst line at any stop of his minor league career.

 

4.82 era 1.548 whip 9.8 k/9 3.8 bb/9

 

Seems he struggled with command for the first time in his minor league career posting bb/9 over 3 at AA(3.2/9) and AAA(3.8/9).  The above post about him touching 99 may be hinting that he started to overthrow and be more of a power pitcher than the 4 pitch mix command/control guy that’s lead to his previous success.

 

He’s popping up in very different places on prospect rankings as he has for most of his career.  But he also seems to have dropped significantly compared to where he was last year(2018: MLB(16) Prospectus(16) BA(12))

 

cbs: 34

Pitcherlist: 25

Prospects1500: 29

razzball: 68(all pitchers discredited in these rankings)

Faketeams: 57

Prospects365: 40

 

Anyone seeing him as a buy low in dynasty or even a sleeper for 2019 considering he should 100% make his debut this year?  While he had a down year last year, it also seems like he was throwing harder than ever, and he has an amazing track record when it comes to durability getting up to 142 innings last year at 22.  I see him as a very high floor guy, with a questionable ceiling, but if he continues to pump high 90s that could all change.

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On 1/21/2019 at 6:42 AM, BackyardBaseball said:

Keller has a rocky AAA debut last year posting his worst line at any stop of his minor league career.

 

4.82 era 1.548 whip 9.8 k/9 3.8 bb/9

 

Seems he struggled with command for the first time in his minor league career posting bb/9 over 3 at AA(3.2/9) and AAA(3.8/9).  The above post about him touching 99 may be hinting that he started to overthrow and be more of a power pitcher than the 4 pitch mix command/control guy that’s lead to his previous success.

 

He’s popping up in very different places on prospect rankings as he has for most of his career.  But he also seems to have dropped significantly compared to where he was last year(2018: MLB(16) Prospectus(16) BA(12))

 

cbs: 34

Pitcherlist: 25

Prospects1500: 29

razzball: 68(all pitchers discredited in these rankings)

Faketeams: 57

Prospects365: 40

 

Anyone seeing him as a buy low in dynasty or even a sleeper for 2019 considering he should 100% make his debut this year?  While he had a down year last year, it also seems like he was throwing harder than ever, and he has an amazing track record when it comes to durability getting up to 142 innings last year at 22.  I see him as a very high floor guy, with a questionable ceiling, but if he continues to pump high 90s that could all change.

 

still one of my favorite young pitchers, I think he's underrated and overlooked. And yet, all my rejected attempts to acquire him in dynasty suggest he's still highly valued.

 

I think he's got the goods. Higher upside than a Soroka type but probably riskier. Prospect pitchers I'd probably go: 1. Keller 2. Gore     (might be omitting someone crucial)

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Idk- I have always been a fan, but after last year I have moved him a few tiers below the top arms...just don't see the ceiling with him.

Still think he's got a solid floor, which helps. Also don't like the way the Pirates have been developing arms and then deploying them in the bigs.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/302564924-mitch-keller-eyes-callup-to-pirates-in-2019.amp.html

 

great article about his AAA struggles, which were really just his first two games where he let up 13 runs in 8 innings.  After that he posted a 3.09 era and he admits when he first came up to AAA he was overthrowing and not placing pitches like he used to.  Once he adjusted he held his own just fine.

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55 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/302564924-mitch-keller-eyes-callup-to-pirates-in-2019.amp.html

 

great article about his AAA struggles, which were really just his first two games where he let up 13 runs in 8 innings.  After that he posted a 3.09 era and he admits when he first came up to AAA he was overthrowing and not placing pitches like he used to.  Once he adjusted he held his own just fine.

 

Thanks.  This is exactly why people should not just be blindly reading stats and going all saber-metrics over both big leaguers and especially minor league guys.  A human being isn't a stat but a living and breathing and CHANGING person.

 

Remember all the doubters when JD Martinez broke out with the Tigers.  Small sample size."  "Stats don't back it."  Yadda yadda.  Yet there was an article linked here that explained clearly what happened.  But God forbid anyone read an article as opposed to sticking their nose in stats 100% of the time.  Stats -- especially those over an entire career -- are tools , not holy writ.

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Thanks.  This is exactly why people should not just be blindly reading stats and going all saber-metrics over both big leaguers and especially minor league guys.  A human being isn't a stat but a living and breathing and CHANGING person.

Exactly.  Take out those 2 starts and the worst era he had at any stop over the last 3 years was a 3.14 while carrying a 9.2 k/9 and 1.13 whip for his minor league career.  Give me another minor league pitcher who has been as consistent as this guy over the last 3 years while working their way up through the minors.  Seeing him ranked 50+ on some fantasy prospect lists seems like laziness on the writers part.  IBW has him at 69 overall behind about 20+ pitchers half of which haven’t proven a damn thing

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58 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 IBW has him at 69 overall behind about 20+ pitchers half of which haven’t proven a damn thing

 

 

that's borderline blasphemy .... I think he'd be fairly decent in the bigs right now. Folks be treatin' him like Cal Quantrill. 

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32 minutes ago, RotoBird said:

 

that's borderline blasphemy .... I think he'd be fairly decent in the bigs right now. Folks be treatin' him like Cal Quantrill. 

 Truth

 

hes 18 overall for prospectus although it’s not a fantasy ratings list. But still they only have luzardo and Whitley ahead of him.  The only other prospect I’d put ahead of him without question is probably Reyes and maybe Honeywell depending on how he looks after TJ.  There are others with higher upside but Keller needs more respect for how solid he has been.  It’s not like he’s throwinf 92 either he’s got a 95+ mph sinking fastball that will play at any level.

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Little snippet from Klaw top 50:

"Keller lacks a viable changeup or other third pitch, which killed him in Triple-A, as lefties posted a .414 OBP against him. He has used a straight change, but it plays like a BP fastball, and he abandons it in starts in which it doesn't work for him."

I still think his floor is solid (as I stated above) but he isn't quite in the upper tier of starter prospects imo. It can all come together for him yet--in regards to the 3rd pitch, but I also have plenty of reservations about how PIT has developed SPs lately--esp how they call games.

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On 1/26/2019 at 3:22 PM, BackyardBaseball said:

 Truth

 

hes 18 overall for prospectus although it’s not a fantasy ratings list. But still they only have luzardo and Whitley ahead of him.  The only other prospect I’d put ahead of him without question is probably Reyes and maybe Honeywell depending on how he looks after TJ.  There are others with higher upside but Keller needs more respect for how solid he has been.  It’s not like he’s throwinf 92 either he’s got a 95+ mph sinking fastball that will play at any level.

 

It not being a "fantasy based" ranking list makes it a better case for Keller as you're getting guys bumped up for defense on this list that in fantasy you could either ignore or bump much further down.

 

My concern with Keller is the mad drop off at AAA.  Was this truly because his lack of a 3rd pitch has finally caught up to him?  Or is his arm starting to go?  I honestly didn't catch any AAA tape on him so I'm curious to see where his velos are in spring training.

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

 

It not being a "fantasy based" ranking list makes it a better case for Keller as you're getting guys bumped up for defense on this list that in fantasy you could either ignore or bump much further down.

 

My concern with Keller is the mad drop off at AAA.  Was this truly because his lack of a 3rd pitch has finally caught up to him?  Or is his arm starting to go?  I honestly didn't catch any AAA tape on him so I'm curious to see where his velos are in spring training.

 

if you check out the link i posted earlier, his AAA numbers were bad simply because of his first two starts where he admits was due to him overthrowing and missing his spots.  It was right around the time he threw in the futures game and was airmailing 99 mph over his catchers head.  After he realized what was happening he settled in and had an era around 3 for the rest of the year.

 

the more ive read it all comes down to whether he can develop a 3rd pitch cause his change simply sucks.  Not sure why he wouldn't try a slider or apparently hes a good candidate for a splitter according to one scout i read.

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