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Nick Senzel- 3B Reds


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24 minutes ago, BAMADEUCE said:

It’s been a tough go of it so far for Senzel but I believe he’s about to put it all behind him and hit the ground running. 

Its going to be all on him and his rehab progress as to when he gets called up. Cincy is desperate on the field and at the box office. He will get everyday at bats(prolly a game off every 4 or 5 games for load management) once he does. And we all know he’s going to hit for average. He’s an excellent athlete and will run if his legs are good to go. Also, not sure how much over the fence power we will see this year, but I trust it will come sooner than later. 

He hit 14 Home Runs two years ago and 6 in less than a third of a season last year. 20 Home Runs wouldnt be a huge stretch playing in Cincinnati half the time. I could see him hitting 30 at some point in his career.

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For what its worth, he's playing shortstop tonight at AAA (and has homered and stole a base for good measure)

Pretty different prospects. Moncada was (is) raw with great tools and contact issues. Senzel is considered the more polished hitter, but doesn't have the toolsy speed and raw power grades. Consider th

Apparently the boot is off.  

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5 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

He hit 14 Home Runs two years ago and 6 in less than a third of a season last year. 20 Home Runs wouldnt be a huge stretch playing in Cincinnati half the time. I could see him hitting 30 at some point in his career.

 

I agree. Giving a good bill of health, I can see a 20 20 guy with upper mid(375-390) obp and a near 300 average. 

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On 4/5/2019 at 2:27 PM, thezing1 said:

The better question is if the Reds would want to resign a 30ish year old player that they controlled through his prime years. Small market teams need to be smart. Smart is cost controlled prime years. If an agent is threatening his client to walk in free agency I don't think that is much of a threat to a small market club. 

After seeing Acuna's precedent-setting bargain, I now think any deal buying out a year or two of free agency would be in any club's price range (or should be).

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3 hours ago, STLSU said:

After seeing Acuna's precedent-setting bargain, I now think any deal buying out a year or two of free agency would be in any club's price range (or should be).

I think we are talking about 2 different things. I am talking about the Reds going year by year through arbitration and the team controlled years and Senzel getting to free agency as quickly as possible. I believe you are talking about a longterm contract that sets controlled years and arbitration years at a fixed cost and buys out a year or two of free agency. When we get into age 29, 30, 31, 32 seasons those years make a big difference. If Senzel believes in himself and wants to get paid he needs to get to free agency as fast as possible. 99% of deals that lock up young talent, assuming you get a sample size @ MLB level you are comfortable with, is a good deal for teams. Timing of deals bakes in risk (Singleton vs. Acuna) and is reflected in $$$. I guess we wait and see, but either way the Reds hold the keys for many years. 

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2 hours ago, espnfanco said:

Just picked up Senzel for Pinder.  Rotowire says Senzel plays 2b, will he be playing there when he is called up?

He played quite a few games there last year, 3b up until then. In the offseason he was tabbed as the starting CF. Once scooter got injured thought hed move to 2b when he came back but I read they're still looking at him in CF.

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The Reds claim they are intent on him being a CF this year. They used his outfield defense as a rationale for his being returned to the minors this spring and I tend to believe they'll stick to that plan. I don't think that jerking him around makes a lot of sense for the short or long term, so they'll probably commit to the OF for at least this year.

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11 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

The Reds claim they are intent on him being a CF this year. They used his outfield defense as a rationale for his being returned to the minors this spring and I tend to believe they'll stick to that plan. I don't think that jerking him around makes a lot of sense for the short or long term, so they'll probably commit to the OF for at least this year.

I have to believe their plans changed once Gennett was hurt but Senzel got hurt before we found out. They currently have 4 outfielders vying for playing time (Winker, Puig, Schebler and Kemp) while they have Jose Iglesias getting regular AB's on the infield.

Senzel could slide to 2B and they could let Peraza play SS and use Iglesias as the utility guy.

I guess we'll find out once Senzel plays his first game.

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6 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

I have to believe their plans changed once Gennett was hurt but Senzel got hurt before we found out. They currently have 4 outfielders vying for playing time (Winker, Puig, Schebler and Kemp) while they have Jose Iglesias getting regular AB's on the infield.

Senzel could slide to 2B and they could let Peraza play SS and use Iglesias as the utility guy.

I guess we'll find out once Senzel plays his first game.

 

They announced after Gennett got hurt and before Senzel did that they were continuing with their plan to move Senzel to the OF. Gennett isn't dead. By time Senzel is ready to play, Gennett will be 6+ weeks into his 12 week recovery. They want to find a long term placement that allows both guys to play without having to keep moving them.

You're right though, we'll see where Senzel goes this week. From my understanding, he is starting OF reads today.

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13 hours ago, oswald737 said:

Not sure what Nick is up to, but his brother, Mick, appears to be playing CF.

I'm not sure this is good news(Playing CF) for playing time but I'm glad hes playing again. It seems to make a lot more sense to have him play 2B but maybe the Reds know something we dont.

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On 4/16/2019 at 5:50 AM, RoadApple said:

I'm not sure this is good news(Playing CF) for playing time but I'm glad hes playing again. It seems to make a lot more sense to have him play 2B but maybe the Reds know something we dont.

Asking the kid to play 2 positions not including his natural position is a lot. Asking him to get serviceable at 2B for a very, very short window of time (a few weeks) and then moving to a position he just started playing (CF) is kind of unfair. I think you can argue it is a little reckless. It is asking a lot from a young player that has had to deal with injuries and inconsistent playing time because of them. I would like the Reds to give this kid a little bit of position stability and just let his bat force the issue, which in my opinion has yet to happen. His bat has shown to be capable, but if the veterans were healthy and producing at the MLB level I think Senzel would be the odd man out. 

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On 4/17/2019 at 9:49 AM, thezing1 said:

Asking the kid to play 2 positions not including his natural position is a lot. Asking him to get serviceable at 2B for a very, very short window of time (a few weeks) and then moving to a position he just started playing (CF) is kind of unfair. I think you can argue it is a little reckless. It is asking a lot from a young player that has had to deal with injuries and inconsistent playing time because of them. I would like the Reds to give this kid a little bit of position stability and just let his bat force the issue, which in my opinion has yet to happen. His bat has shown to be capable, but if the veterans were healthy and producing at the MLB level I think Senzel would be the odd man out. 

 

Regardless of the veterans health, Senzel is still better than a healthy Schebler in CF any day.

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Went 1-5 with 3 Ks batting leadoff at AAA Louisville in his debut.  Them starting him off at AAA must be a good sign IMO that his timetable is moved up and he won't spend too much time in the minors. Plus, this offense badly needs a spark.

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8 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Went 1-5 with 3 Ks batting leadoff at AAA Louisville in his debut.  Them starting him off at AAA must be a good sign IMO that his timetable is moved up and he won't spend too much time in the minors. Plus, this offense badly needs a spark.

He ended the season in AAA last year and was hurt this year while playing at AAA. I think I get where youre coming from but I dont think they would have started him anywhere else. 

If he hits, I'm guessing we see him in 2 weeks. If he starts slow and the other Reds outfielders start to hit, who knows, could be June.

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4 hours ago, RoadApple said:

He ended the season in AAA last year and was hurt this year while playing at AAA. I think I get where youre coming from but I dont think they would have started him anywhere else. 

If he hits, I'm guessing we see him in 2 weeks. If he starts slow and the other Reds outfielders start to hit, who knows, could be June.

Sorry for clarity I guess what I meant is this is already to the point of “hey let’s get you up to speed and shake the rust off” mode and this is his spring training. If they started him lower in the minors it would be more of a rehab. I guess what I’m saying is the injury is not as much of a concern to them and it’s more about getting up to speed.

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18 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Sorry for clarity I guess what I meant is this is already to the point of “hey let’s get you up to speed and shake the rust off” mode and this is his spring training. If they started him lower in the minors it would be more of a rehab. I guess what I’m saying is the injury is not as much of a concern to them and it’s more about getting up to speed.

 

I think they genuine;y want him to get more game experience at CF. He's batting leadoff to max his PAs, which helps. I am thinking 3-4 weeks, but his success and fielding will play a role.

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There's a player I continue to draw comps to as far as how I see his career trajectory (minus the time he has spent off the field hurt). 

Comp Player: 6'0" tall, 180 lb. Comp Player was age 21-22 in minors, played 146 games and hit 35 2B, 6 3B, 24 HR, 20 SB, 10 CS, 76 BB, 68 K, .300/.388/.503 line

Senzel: 6'1" tall, 205 lb. Age 21-23 in minors (so far). played 232 games and hit 76 2B, 8 3B, 27 HR, 40 SB, 15 CS, 106 BB, 193 K, .314/.389/.511 line. 

The comp player had a higher HR rate, but a lower SLG. I think Senzel is going to step into some more power. Senzel has had a better BA, AVG, and SLG. He runs more. 

The comp player is Bregman. 

I feel like Senzel can have a trajectory like Bregman because of the strong OBP ability and his ability to hit for power and run. I am surprised Bregman has developed as much power as he has. The one big thing that really separates the two is the K:BB rate. Senzels is fine, but it's nowhere near the level of Bregmans, which is elite. 

 

As far as fantasy baseball is concerned, I think Senzel can put up lines similar to what Bregman has (in 2 full seasons we've seen 19 HR/17 SB/.284/.352/.475 and 31 HR/10 SB/.286/.394/.532 from Bregman). Neither would be a shock for Senzel to do, IMO. What would be a shock is to be doing it so early in his career like Bregman has. I'd temper the expectations early on, but Senzel definitely has the profile and tools to be an impact player upon call up and a 2nd/3rd round pick in next years draft. Of course, he could be relatively average as well, and he's been "injury prone" so far. Senzel is a guy I love to own, but also not a prospect I pay a premium price for just yet. Senzel reminds me a lot of Meadows as far as his skillset and how his minor league career was somewhat up and down. Never really "bad" but often not to the level you'd expect, but was also battling injury. 

Long post short - the potential is sky high, he's not an overly risky prospect as far as prospects go. Don't just look at his "career high" of 14 homers in 119 games and think he won't have power. 

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